Bitcoin Forum

Here my TA (https://imgur.com/AGfUKag)

👨‍💻 My Opinion: if you're wondering what to do now, I don't know. Currently I'm in a long position with 15% of my capital that I have no intention to close even if negative, yes I decided to hodl my position up to the liquidation price ($5,900)!

📊 Why did I decide that?
Because if BTC will dump to test the $6,000 support I will open another long position in order to have the liquidation below $5/4.5k as far as possible from the MA 200 on Weekly TF.

Conclusion:
I hope I don't get to liquidation, but even if I did, I always have a plan B ready. 🥶

Good Luck Markus R. Ackermann (https://t.me/s/Ackermann_Channel)

When the price begins to drop by $ 100 or 200, negative analyzes begin to appear, panic spreads, FUD, and people begin to sell currencies at prices much lower than their real price.
If the price drops below $ 6,000, this is an excellent opportunity to buy more because you probably won't be able to catch a train the next time and you'll regret selling.
Go back a little bit how much the price was on this day: 2017 (19XXX) 2018 (3XXX) 2019 (6XXX) 2020 (XXXXX)

I could see the price drop to maybe $5000 but if that happens I will just hold what I have and probably add to my position. I still think next year before the halving, Bitcoin’s price will start a gradual increase and just keep going for at least a year.

I agree 100%, in fact as you can see from the image I put on the thread (link) my BUY ZONES are just above the big supports ($ 6,800 and $ 6,100).

You're right, I believe we will never see the BTC price below the MA 200 on the weekly TF.
Having said that, I believe that any BTC buy from now on will be great, since according to my forecast by the end of 2022 btc will reach $ 350,000.
Why am I saying this?

Click here (https://twitter.com/M_R_Ackermann/status/1188582841376018434)

I agree that it looks bullish for bitcoin in the future, I don't care what the short term hold (the next couple months) because I feel like after the halving (and maybe even a bit before the halving) the price may end up going up. What people are forgetting that bitcoin cash is the people who have one of the biggest mining operations in the whole world, if not the biggest which means they will try to do whatever they can to hurt bitcoin itself and make people focus on bitcoin cash.

Having said that who would profit from bitcoin dropping down most? These bitcoin cash owners and they may take up some beating and lose money from their mining in order to not increase the price and hurt other miners as well and that may end up causing bitcoin to drop even further. We will have to wait and see.

This recent dump in the price of bitcoin has made everybody so skeptical about the price of bitcoin. I don't blame them though lol, they are probably the weak hands selling at this low price. This winter is just a quick manipulation of the market by whales who want to accumulate as much as they can before the next break out. Hold your bitcoins people we are yet to see a huge rise soon.

That is the people who panic they will sell if the price of bitcoin falls deeper that there is no good thought but will lose if this continues for them.
If you hold fast to the belief that bitcoin will grow again there will definitely be more that will approach halving in a few months, I do not know whether this is manipulation by the pope in the winter or not clear the belief in holding bitcoin must exist.

Your chart looks a little bit too congested for me, but everybody has their own analysis and trading style. I know a fact for sure: when you're risking 15% capital and your risk management rule is "waiting for liquidation" to take the position off(in this case - get your position taken away by the exchange) is gambling IMO. I don't want to offend you but you're a newbie and posting your TA here on the forum - my guess is that you're trying to build a following and then shill a paid group. If that's not the case I apologise, but please don't teach other people your risk management principles.

It's so easy to talk about a winter that's coming when prices are going down across the whole market. I would have liked to see these threads pop up like a month or two ago, but people were still bullish then.

I think we might be up for a short term bullish reversal with how bearish people currently are. I say short term because we have been tricked before by reversals that a couple of months later turned out to be another lower high.

This is the right way to think!
Since my long position at $9.5k failed with stoploss at 9.2k, I knew very well that BTC would go down but I didn't dare to enter in a short position for many reasons.

Is this the right time to strike Long?
I don't know for sure, what I do know is that, BTC can bounce at any moment.

Exactly, in fact many of my friends and followers have entered a short position even though I have never advised against doing so.

And as you said this is just manipulation, this is confirmed by the +10% made in the last 24h

Who bought for $ 6.5k is the luckiest man on earth?

we need to officially break this 6-month downtrend before it's safe to margin long IMO. the downtrend line is ~$9k, and to form a weekly higher high we need to break $10350 (bitstamp).

good luck though. i respect your courage and i hope you're right. the trade is just too risky for my taste, especially considering your own TA is pointing to the $4000s.

The advice I give to my investors at this time is as follows:
- When you open a position, don't think to do trading in the short term, think of the long term (over 3 months).
- Before opening a position, decide whether to play it with Stop Loss or liquidation. (calculate the risk and how much you are willing to lose for your idea)
- If you want to enter in spot now do it quietly.
- If you want to enter in margin, do it with a low leverage, maximum 3x.
- BTC will not die now, trust in technology and people's desire to earn money!

I appreciate your opinion, it is true that I am a new member of this forum but I have a lot of experience in trading, and if you see my previous posts on Twitter and my Telegram Channel you will notice that my predictions are based not only on technical analysis but also on on fundamental analysis and psychological analysis of investors (positive / negative sentimentalism).

The truth is that, 90% of "btc traders" do not know what they do therefore they follow the mass (gambling) but I only follow my plans even though I know that there are more experienced people than me but I know for sure I have a rational reason to say or do a determined action.
My plan is based on the possible BTC trand, I put a small percentage of my capital because I am willing to lose a little of my capital but I'm sure that in the long term I will be repaid by my investment.

Absolutely! My joke is enough for the fact that BTC can still go down to $ 4.5k and then go up again (no further, it would break the trand line it has been maintaining for years) in that case the come back up would always be longer towards a new ATH.
These days many of my friends ad followers were worried about their positions, instead while I was subject to a great loss in my long position, I didn't close the position and I spent my days very quietly.
Why?
For the simple fact that if BTC had touched my strategic liquidation it would have gone down to 4.5k and I would have bought the best long ever.

I agree with your idea but personally I would feel safer to buy now than in a strong bullrun with possible market overload as happened to me in the past, I am trying to buy as low as possible for this reason and not for greed with desire to earn as much as possible.

"winter is coming" is a euphemism for when you expect a long and harsh bear market not when you think a tiny drop may happen in a market situation that you can not predict at all. in other words you can only call it winter if you expect $3000 and below to be reached!

otherwise staying around $7k and a drop to $6k levels is not "winter".
also as you can see the worst case scenario with all the manipulation over the past 48 hours was $6425 before the price shot up back to $7450!
most importantly this is NOT something you can predict with TA.

My comment "Winter is coming" is intended in the event that BTC dump over $ 6k (Bitcoin's biggest long-term support).
Technical analysis helps a lot to predict the possible supports and resistances, and therefore I will only consider the point where BTC could stop to go up again.
As I said in a previous comment, despite my current situation (in loss) I am very confident that the BTC down trand will end by the end of January.

i'm not saying to wait until the actual blow-off top (like last june) before leveraging long. i'm just saying that it's very risky to leverage long into a downtrend. i only long strong uptrends and short strong downtrends. everything else is for spot trading, where i can ride out choppy range markets and drawdowns without risking too much capital.

$5k-$8k seems like a smart accumulation zone for spot BTC---and i am putting my fiat money back into the market at these levels. leverage is a whole different animal though.

to each his own. different strokes for different folks.....

Obviously I agree with you that this is a good time to open long positions.
Everyone has their own opinions, I just hope I was helpful in sharing my thoughts with you, I appreciate your opinions and I thank you for the excellent point of view you pointed out to me.

So essentially your TA is that it wi either go up or.go.down. Nice.

Personally I don't care I just hodl,.do occasional swings when I spot a good opportunity and make sure to get my bags heavier and heavier by the day. The longer the winter lasts the better the spring will be for me 🤣. If a spring ever comes that is 🤣🤣🤣

Yes, I believe that the TA on the BTC market cannot be complicated because the market is young and the patterns that are formed do not end in a way like in the bigger markets (for example FIAT).

What I consider in the BTC market are:
- Supports
- Resistances
- Double Bottom and Double Top
- Falling and Rising wedge
- Symmetrical, Ascending and Descending

Other more complex patterns should be avoided because they are very difficult to find and very difficult to predict.

I always ignore my blockfolio's recent price chart changes, it was just making my day so bad together with other pressures work at the office. Partly that's good decision to hodl of rather than ranting of selling after seeing market downfalls. We can't just expect faster increase of btc price after long period of time experiencing a lot of recession. That needs enough time to recover, long term goals for that winter is yet to come but just stay calm and have focus.

i don't think we can see any downtrend to want to end in January. this was it!
we may see some similar weird out of nowhere drops like what we saw recently that end up with an immediate jump back but that can't be called a trend. if this is also what you had in mind then i agree, this could end in January.

Exactly, I believe that there will be only two roads that BTC will follow:
- The price continues to fall to $ 4.5k and then bounce (to 6k --> 8k --> 10k --> ATH).
- The price will begin to rise from the new year without making new lows.

And I personally am ready for any eventuality

I also don't see us going down in January. We probably will never go below 5k again. That train has left the station and like those bears who were hoping for us to go to 1k last year the bears waiting for sub 3k this year will be all grumpy.
I like predictions by Tone Vays because he's always a little too bearish. By his mood you can predict some good trades a little above his predictions. For instance, he was expecting 1k last year when we were at 10k, and we went down to 3k, so he was close but too bearish. This time he was predicting sub 6k, we went down to 6.4k and then he was predicting a bounce back to 7k and we went to 7.4, so take his predictions with a 20% to the up side and you could do good :D  

Personally I don't know Tone Vays because as I said earlier I don't follow anyone's forecasts since the trading experts who come from FIAT or STOCK trades BTC first of all, a very young and very volatile market, the latter trace forecasts by tracing the random lines because sentiment is recommended.

So in the last few years I understood that if I have to follow someone's TA and earn / improve I prefer to dare the merit / guilt to me.

After the quick bounce back from $6400 to $7100 levels, I too believe sailing now in long position would be much safer provided that few back up plans. Still, I believe your 15% is too low when considering the festival time and upcoming halving. I mean to say if you are not into leveraged trading, going with up to 50% of your capital also will be good as most downfall of BTC markets now a days end up in quick bounce back.

I find the strong support levels still in action around $6500 levels. So, it would be too hard for the current markets to break this support levels to test anything below $6000 levels. Bitcoin prices may test below $7000 levels as of now but it will not hold there for sure. I believe $8100 levels are on the way when markets hold from current prices.

Please find time to share is your alternative view. For same back-up plans and confirming with my own research, I am just asking this.

So you're a holder, but you're willing to lose money when forced to liquidate? Assuming that here you're either on futures contracts or buying on margin... Why not do yourself a favour and actually but btc and actually hold? If the purpose is to hold and go long, big time, that is the only option that makes sense.

Or have I missed something here? Why all the bother with liquidation prices?

It seems more likely not happen, there is no winter but summer is coming instead.
Bitcoin briefly drops to $6500 but quickly rebound above $7000 even before I could buy the dip, thought it was going to stay below $7K for a few days but it didn't. We can expect to close the year with the price range within $7K-$8K, I guess.

I’m holding no matter how low the price gets. With my luck I’ll sell at the bottom and watch the price go on a bull run. Since I’m in for the long run, I’ll just hold and not sell.

I agree with what you said, but if I have invested only 15% of my capital in this (leveraged) operation, it is because I am not willing to lose more than that in the event that btc dump to $ 5k.

Obviously I have other funds diversified on other cryptocurrencies that I bought in spot.

You're absolutely right, but if I see the opportunity to earn more BTC with trading, why shouldn't I take this opportunity?

Yes I could hold my BTC in safe and I would have profit in the long term (2-3 years) but in the meantime what do I do? Which is why I decided to risk 15% of my capital in a trade and 35% of my capital in altcoin (in spot) the remaining 50% I am holding.

l in case I lose that 15% of my capital, I recover the loss in the equivalent of USD when btc will reach about $ 10k.

It would be a success on the market if btc closes above $ 7k.
But you have to keep in mind (from a technical analysis point of view) how the next 3 weekly and monthly candles will close, so as to have a clearer idea of the future trend of BTC.

I like how self aware you are. I'm pretty sure that the far majority of the people calling themselves hodlers end up buying high and selling low.

I do however have to point out that it is important to take some profits whenever the market has gone crazy high, which in most cases will result in a firm drop afterwards. It's much better being able to put the money you got from selling into a hype and use it to buy lower. That way your satoshi stack will grow and you benefit even more during the next bull run.

Stacking sats is my main goal and I love to take what weak hands almost donate to me by selling so low.

that is a good strategy and i am doing the same thing but these percentages are terrible for my taste. the altcoin market has a huge risk compared to bitcoin market thanks to the fact that it is very easy to manipulate it and most altcoin exist only for manipulation and nothing more. on top of all that, whenever bitcoin price makes a sudden move we see a big altcoin dump!
which is why i prefer a much lower percentage of my capital being risked in altcoin market.

I am glad you appreciate my investment strategy.
The reason why I decided to divesify 35% of my capital into altcoins (ETH, LTC, NEO, DODGE, MONERO) becouse I want to hold those crypto for a lot of time (2 years) and sell them for the next Bitcoin's ATH.

Instead of making the drop negative, those who have a long-term mindset will use it as a good opportunity to buy cheaper Bitcoin. Then when the market is back in full swing, those who sold theirs will have a big headache since they missed the train big time. I mean this is always the cycle with Bitcoin so there is nothing new really. At the end of the day, those who continue to hold and then add more will be getting the most benefits when the market is going to be back running, jumping and pumping.

The alts that you bought seem decent at least. You won't believe how many people are out there that got their savings invested in alts which are >99% down from all time high and they keep investing in them because they seem to have the most highest looking rate of return, and its not exactly true because many of those alts might get delisted and eventually stop trading and be worthless. At least with your 5 you won't have that issue.

Regarding your liquidation, don't use liquidation as your stop loss, I am assuming you are using Bitmex. If so put in a stop loss higher up. If your order is forced to liquidate you will lose more than just setting a stop because of the way the liquidation engine and the bitmex insurance fund works.

Exactly, although I have not recommended Shitcoin for a long time, I still have followers who offer me altcoins that are not even worth 1 cent, and buy thousands with $ 50, hoping that one day it will make + 1000%
This is a wrong investment, it is now and always will be wrong! I wouldn't recommend it to anyone!

Anyway I currently have a position on Bitmex, I will tell you I am not rependet at all, last week I had a very strong negative, about 500 points were missing to the liquidation, despite this I still felt confident in my strategy, and I did well because now I am in BEP.
If you want to play a position with SL you can do it if you buy on a resistance for example and then put SL near 10/20% loss if you get filled.