Bitcoin Forum

Outspoken investor John Hussman claims that we are on the brink of stock market collapse. He argues that even a 50-65% market crash this cycle is “somewhat optimistic.” What would such a collapse mean for Bitcoin?

This month, the U.S. economy posted its longest period of expansion in its history. This is now officially the longest period its economy has gone without a recession. While there is room for celebration, such a fact should cause us to worry: is the current growth sustainable? According to some financial analysts, we could be in for a serious correction and, even worse, could see a complete wiping of almost all the gains we’ve had thus far.

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It looks like we are in a brink of another stock market collapse like in 2008!

Back then during the stock market crash, it's where Satoshi Nakamoto has published his whitepaper about Bitcoin. Now here's the thing.

If the stock market recession were about to repeat anytime soon, it means that there's a possibility about investors moving their funds from stocks to Bitcoin or any other cryptocurrencies.

What do you think guys? Do you think it's possible that these investors are going to move into Bitcoin when stock market is about to crash again? Hmmmm....

It completely depends I think. There's going to be a significant difference between the stock market correcting, compared to the United States actually having a recession. The former I think would have minimal effect on bitcoin's price, while the latter, when were talking about hyperinflation and such, my guess is that bitcoin will drop with almost everything.

I'm definitely not an economics expert though, so yea.

him and every other commentator are repeating the same thing---imminent collapse coming, sell everything. in fact, they've been saying it for a year already.

but look at the charts. the stock market literally made a new all-time high today! maybe they should at least wait for a sizeable dip before expecting a 65%+ crash lol.

this reminds me of the 2005-06 period. everyone is pessimistic about an incoming crash but the market keeps climbing the wall of worry. considering how bearish everyone is, i'd say we have a good 1-2 years before the crash finally comes.


it would exacerbate a market decline in BTC. there is no perfect hedge to a global economic crash and if there were one, it's not BTC.

Yeap. Well, at least not currently. I think bitcoin could be a great hedge for economic uncertainties in the future, when bitcoin gains enough liquidity(probably at the same level of gold or more) and sort of "public acceptance". As for now, bitcoin is still mostly a speculative vehicle for the majority so I also heavily doubt that it would be a good hedge as of now.

When there are bad news on the horizon in terms of the economy and politics, Bitcoin is always benefited and it is because people and investors would be looking for something else where they think they can safely and profitably park their money. In case, there will really be a recession again akin to the last decade then Bitcoin will surely jump and pump in value and can be attracting more and more speculators again just like in 2017. Still, there is no guarantee here and nobody can really predict if recession will be coming up and if that can happen next year or the following year...as the economy of the USA is also holding on and seems to be developing some rate of resiliency.

If such a meltdown were to happen in 5-10 years from now I'd be much less certain about Bitcoin's prospects - in a good way. If it happens soon it's on a toast express to hell like everything else.

We've been in uncharted waters for so long with so many bizarro interventions from the monetary people it's impossible to know what's going to happen with this cycle and when it'll go officially sour.

Despite a serious stock market recession will mean that people will have less money to spend in general, it depends on the speed of the recession. If it is slow, then people will shift to cryptocurrency for better gains. If it is fast, then every asset will initially suffer. I think cryptocurrency falls into the speculative side of investing at the moment and in an economic downturn money usually moves to more stable conservative investments like gold, bonds, etc. thereby, I'd predict a downturn in cryptocurrency price if the stock market crashes quickly.

Yes, one of the reasons why I'm bullish now is the chance for a recession in the near future. I mean there are already tons of indicators crying out loud for recession. And it would likely be good for Bitcoin as people look for an asset that could save their wealth. That's gold, and I hope Bitcoin too. It will be an interesting time indeed.

The stock market crash will be bad for bitcoin.

First of all, those who are selling in a falling market get less for their stocks, and so have less to invest elsewhere.

Secondly, a lot of the trades in the stock market are done on margin, and when investors get margin calls, the tendency is to sell bitcoin to meet those margin calls.

If you look back to 2018, the stock market declined from June 2018 to Feb 2018 - and bitcoin's price dropped from $7,000 in June 2018 to $3,400 in Feb 2018.

It was only when the stock market rose again, did the bitcoin price also rise. 

Possible. I mean, if the premise of market crashes and investor moves, then yep It's pretty much a done deal. But the stock market has been preparing for this possible recession and they are prepared for whatever big moves the recession could bring them. Staying in the stock market throughout the recession could bring out profits to those whom would stay.

That, or the recession actually affects the market of BTC, with it failing to become a pillar of support for those transferring from stocks. Sadly, BTC isn't a guaranteed hedge in the market, and with the halving nearing and the possible recession just in the neighborhood, I'd say it'd be actually hell on the market there and then.

This has been predicted for a long time now and it seems like everyone agree on it, and when everyone agrees, that usually means we have not reached the turning point yet. So i am guessing that the rise will still continue just because everyone is usually wrong.

Pretty much. I don't know if we could get to that point in 5-10 years though, to the point that people are actually convinced that bitcoin is a great alternative to non-correlated assets like gold. I don't think we can get there in that time span, but the perception of the masses of bitcoin can definitely change in a snap of a finger. Well, once again, time will tell.

Bitcoin will not collapse just like that we see developments now all using technology and adopting bitcoin as an ideal transaction so that Bitcoin disruption will not be possible, see the market has grown green a sign that the bullrun will come.
I'm sure investors will have a way if it really collapses like in previous years.

I really couldn't tell about that but I do believe that the market won't fall for another disappointing price.
What I've to look at now is that we are still having a healthy market, the prices aren't really bad to look at. That certain speculation is just a mirror from the previous bear season and they'll think that it soon to happen again. But I'd think that investors won't let that thing to happen again for they still have the power to change the market trend into good.

We are in uncharted territory here, bitcoin was created as a reaction to the crisis of 2008 so it didn't had to endure it, and regardless of when that recession happens that will be the first time that bitcoin will have to face such market conditions, I really think that at the beginning the price of bitcoin will go down as well as people get scared about what's happening but then they will realize that bitcoin is not correlated to the stock market and that it could be in fact one of the few assets that will give profits during that time.

i think bitcoin is destined to crash in any typical financial crisis / economic crash scenario---even if it achieves a status similar to gold. gold crashed 34% during the 2008 crisis after all. gold may hold its value better than other assets but hedging economic contractions is about minimizing losses, not preventing them entirely.

when it comes to economic contractions, cash is king.

the only situation where that's not true is a currency crisis where fiat currencies like the USD completely collapse. this is a very different situation than a garden variety recession. predicting a recession is one thing; predicting the collapse of fiat currencies is a bit more of a long shot!

As many already replied, bitcoin will crash together with stocks and Gold. But Bitcoin and Gold will recover fast and then even start growing. Stocks will stay low for a year  or more.  I believe as late this recession comes better will be or Bitcoin. Since bitcoin needs time to make him stronger.  Everyday that passes, there are more and more chances there will be no recession in 2020.

i am not a stock market trader or follower but as long as i remember there was someone who has been saying the same exact thing and not just that they also predict a global recession! and although it remains a possibility but it is not something these random people can predict.

what does it mean for bitcoin? it is hard to say. we haven't had bitcoin during any recession. bitcoin was created after the last big one and it kind of was created because of it (banks centralized corruption and needing a decentralized currency). so if i had to guess bitcoin should go up big time if a recession occured.

They've probably moved already and doesn't want to expose their activities so that others wouldn't notice it. But this is against to what I've just read about stock market for 2020. This is what I've read what the wealthy people tells for 2020's stock.

Where wealthy Americans think the market and US economy will be at end of 2020 (https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/23/where-the-wealthy-expect-market-economy-to-be-at-end-of-2020.html)

He does NOT predict that market would go down.
He predicts that market return in the next 10-12 years would be close to zero.
It could be down-up or up, then down or flat or multiple down-ups as long as the sum is about zero.

Market conditions are currently down but will not touch to $ 6700 as last week traders will certainly continue to make efforts to keep the market going up, seeing markets like this have no adverse effects we can show an increase after Christmas ends or the new year begins.
Many speculate about the price is only their reference and want to think positively so that the increase actually happened.

in the past 10 years that bitcoin existed there has never been any meaningful relationship between bitcoin market and any other market including but not limited to stock market. there has been times where some rises or falls coincide with each other but it is natural in any two markets but since the cases aren't repeated there is no reason we can link them together.

this means that no matter what happens to stock market, it should not have any effects on bitcoin and if anything  poor performance in any other market should help boost bitcoin price as investors could transfer their money to bitcoin.

Stock market "may" go into recession again but honestly we are so used to it, there are times in the worlds financial system where companies can't make any more profits to keep the shareholders happy so they decide to suck all together for a while.

2008 was basically the same thing, everyone was looking to keep profiting over and over again to keep their board seats and CEO jobs and keep shareholders happy with quarterly profit numbers yet at one point that was not possible, wall street collapsed and so did all companies stocks because wall street was selling like hell. If the same thing happens again I am 99% sure nothing major will happen, just another annoying year followed by constant profits by the companies and maybe uptick for bitcoin then stagnant yet again.

Bitcoin has been going up big time for the last decade. That whole time, the stock market has been in a raging bull market. I see the two as connected in terms of investor risk tolerance. (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/risk-on-risk-off.asp)

Stocks have been in a broad risk-on cycle since 2009. When that cycle ends, you think it'll be bullish for Bitcoin? I don't.

After 10 years people have a tendency to minimize the crisis of 2008 and think of it as not really a big deal and as just another recession but that is not true the system was very close to collapsing and if it was not for intervention of the governments it will have done so, this is why people are so afraid of the next recession if it is a mild one then that is fine but if it is as big or even bigger than what we saw during 2008 it is very doubtful the current economic system will survive.

I would love you are right. Recession next year would be super bad for Bitcoin. Bitcoin needs more time to flourish more. 2021 will be better. 2022 almost perfect. Since USA presidential elections are at end of next year is hard to expect recession happening before that. If it happens then establishment have no chances for reelection.

Why do many people insist that the cryptocurrency market is the only alternative in the event of any collapse in prices? this is not the case, but people who want to leave the stock market will be distributed to many sectors such as gold, real estate, digital currencies, and other activities.
Financial safety and prospects for recovery are what drive many to enter the adventure and therefore will not put a lot of money if global uncertainty occurs or there are global financial crises.

In short, unless there are regulatory laws, we will not see a direct relationship between the two markets.

The crisis can come at any time bitcoin is ready to survive it and to even thrive in it, however what we really need is that those that adopt bitcoin in such difficult circumstances are aware of all the dangers that are lurking in this market, just look at the number of scams that happens every day with only a few million users, if this were to change and we had many more users it is likely we will see an exponential increase and this could generate an even more problematic reputation for bitcoin.

I have quite a different approach towards it. Though I doubt that stock market is entering a recession. It was cyclical in nature and the slowdown is pretty much correcting. But even if that is the case. I think Bitcoin or crypto as a whole which isn't really connected to stock market price action can emerge as an alternative investment option.
People can safeguard their money by entering into crypto which won't be that much affected by the stock or inflation.

Don't get me wrong on this one but a dissatisfaction of investors from another market doesn't guarantee that they will move to just a singular market which in this case is the stock market investors all shifting to the crypto market. There are still a lot of other markets to consider and I know conservative investors won't like the idea of their money going into a much more volatile market and will just look for other alternatives with similar stability such as the forex market or even in a mutual fund. Even if us crypto investors see Bitcoin and some cryptocurrencies as a safe have for inflation and noise from other markets most investors in a much more conservative market won't have the same view as we have.

and most importantly, cash. the people pushing the "stock market crash will pump bitcoin" narrative are misguided bulls who equate normal recessions with the collapse of fiat money.


significant stock market declines would indicate a risk off period. (https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-05-23/why-risk-on-and-risk-off-are-how-the-markets-roll-quicktake) investors would be looking for assets that are safer than stocks like US treasuries or german bunds---not a speculative new asset class like cryptocurrency.

While that may surprising bring more exposure to Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies, it would be pretty weird if people from the stock market suddenly transfered their entire investments into Bitcoin after watching the rate of market volatility.

And there's bound to be a repercussion if such should happen, we may experience another upsurge in bubble-effect (similar to those of 2017/2018 burst) on this side of the horizon.

when there is a recession in the stock market it is indeed possible that some stock investors will move their assets to bitcoin and cryptocurreny. and I don't think that will have much impact on the price of bitcoin. because the amount of bitcoin that is purchased will not be large. and when a crisis occurs I think people will be more careful in using their money. and I think they will tend to choose investment tools that have a low risk, namely gold. bitcoin is an investment tool that has a high risk.

Because this is a bitcoin forum, if this was forum was named goldtalk then most of its members will think that in the case of a recession the only way to save yourself from losing money will be by using gold and maybe even silver, but since this is bitcointalk then it is natural that many of its members which think bitcoin is the best investment option in the world will think bitcoin and some altcoins could be the only way to protect yourself from a recession.