Bitcoin Forum

Next Bitcoin Halving will drive the price down because the ecological system in which Bitcoin lives will be reduced.
More miners will bail, and it is the miners who are the bone marrow that creates the life blood of block chain.

Thoughts?

The exact same thing was said about the previous one and no doubt the one before that. It will be said for every one in future until the block reward becomes a trickle.

Compare hash rates to the first one. I think we're just a little bit higher these days.

Maybe your conclusion is correct but there's so many narrative saying that BTCitcoin halving will cause bull run due to Bitcoin production will become slower and this will expectedly accumulate fast price increase because of investors.

About the miners, they have no choice to continue mining or unless they sell their rigs especially the miners who's using ASIC.

Honestly I hope I am wrong and Bitcoin hits 1 million so McAfee will get to keep his weener.
Some may even argue that the halving is already in the price, fair point.
And yes this was said in various forms before prior halvings, I remember well - been in Bitcoin space since 2011, and I remember the fun loving thriving mining community from those days.
But, the narrative surrounding the Bitcoin and reality of crypto economy and its global positioning have changed in a very non linear progression.
The culture of Bitcoin mining went away from enthusiasts and early adapters into a much colder and darker commercial place.
Again, I hope I am wrong but I share what my feelings and intuition tell me.

Mining that isn't cold and commercial would mean the eventual death of Bitcoin.

We would of course be nowhere without the early enthusiasts but they can't be depended on if it's no more than a hobby or passion. The more cutthroat it is the stronger it'll be.

If one mining operation can't cut it another one will be along who can. That's how it's always been and always will be.

I for one have never found myself worrying about mining. It's one of the most elegant systems the world has ever seen. Shame about the centralisation though.  

I would expect the Bitcoin price to take a small hit before the Bitcoin halving and I say this because a lot of people who are involved in Bitcoin are here to invest and get out as soon as possible. A major event like a Bitcoin halving can be a scary thing to non technical users of Bitcoin and that could influence them into selling which could drive prices down.

Although I don't see the Bitcoin halving having any negative effects on the Bitcoin price in the long run. The theory behind it is it should make Bitcoin more valuable to hold because less Bitcoin is being generated per month. The lack of technical knowledge is a minor inconvenience and should only effect price in the short term so anyone who is invested in Bitcoin for the long term should not panic if this does happen.



Do you know the immediate price after the last halving? This is not something that I paid attention to last time and it would be interested to see how the market reacted before and after the last halving and compare that with the first Bitcoin halving event.

I don't think that makes sense. First of all, there will probably be a forthrun of the price prior to halving, because of that there won't be the miner purge as even though the mined coins will drop in half, people will be still profitable due to high prices. Even if the price stays at the same rate as it is now, we already saw quite a few small miners leave the space, from this I believe that there's mostly only strong miners left which are not afraid of the halving.

the more difficult bitcoin mining after halving, I think there will be many miners who retreat / stop. because the ability of their computer competition to make blocks is not qualified. then will bitcoin fall? I can't answer that. but if you look at the movement of the chart, the bitcoin chart follows the previous pattern after halving. I hope bitcoin will be more expensive after halving.

Very little happened. It was July 9th 2016 and the price was $654. It was relatively flat for several months after. It only started to rise strongly and broke the $1000 barrier at the end of the year. At the start of 2016 it was $450 ish so it did work its way up towards the halving.

is that possible,? I don't think it can be ascertained, for the reasons you have stated are still unclear, and I am still doubtful about that ... !!

I think the halving will not have much impact on the price of bitcoin, people will continue to do their jobs in the market whether or not bitcoin is halved. What really affects the price of bitcoin is the policy of the way the government deals with it. If tomorrow we receive news that China and the United States accept bitcoin as a currency, I think its price will rise more strongly than at any moment.

Lol, have you seen the previous effects of bitcoin halving? Do you see miners bailing out just because the price tank? On the contrary there could be a growth on the mining industry again, as new hardware are being produce to cope with the difficulty adjustment because of block halving.

So everyone will adjust here, manufactures, miners, crypto investors, exchanges. Everyone in the ecological system will work as one that will result in the price being push further and drive for a new all time high in the coming years after the halving.

Are you saying that the price follows hashrate? Because that's not true, while hashrate is very important, it's not very strongly correlated, you can see it by how the hashrate kept growing all throughout the bear market in 2018. And we already had two halvings and the price didn't fall according to your reasoning, so what should makes this halvening different?

If the price goes down then it will cost more to mine than the mining reward and no one will mine. If no one mines then the whole system crashes.

I believe that the price will increase because that’s the only way Bitcoin can survive.

In my opinion, only time can tell which of the many ideas and opinions of what this next mining rewards halving can produce: Will it push the price of Bitcoin higher or lower? Personally, though I am hoping, of course, that this can be creating more interest and therefore demand with Bitcoin superficial as it might be. With an increasing demand, we know where the price is headed to. But then again, there is no guarantee whatsoever in this marketplace, all we can do now is to speculate and think of what can be, nothing more nothing less.

Miners may bail out if the price does not move according to the supply.  It is still early to say that the price will go down, you only see the perspective on the miners side but do not see the point on the incoming supply and adoption.  Miners may probably the one that sustain the blockchain but it is the buyers who keep the price up. If more buyers comes in (adoption) miners will never bail out because the price of BTC can sustain their expenses and profit.

I don't know if the prediction that you have made is true. Well for me, the halving event that will happen will cause a bull run to the price of the bitcoin. But, the effect of it is not instant. The halving that happened might take effect 1 year after the halving.

You do not really give us anything too specific, we have known from the beginning the halving is going to reduce the reward of miners and so far nothing like what you describe has happened. Besides you are underestimating human ingenuity, even if the price went down and many miners had to leave the market that will open the field for miners that are more efficient, so even if the price went down I do not believe anything significant will happen to most miners.

Are you a miner yourself? Or are you a member of a mining group and that you have something to say on behalf of the group that halving is not something the group is interested and that you are going to bail because of it? If none, what you are saying is purely running in your mind without the slight touch of reality. There have been a couple of halvings that happened and so far there was no bail happening every after halving.

There you go, evidence that mining isn't going to slow down one bit because of the reward halving.  I will assume this upcoming one will make little difference and that not a lot of miners are going to bail out as OP has suggested.

Correct me if I'm wrong, but most mining is done not by individuals but by big mining operations with lots of rigs.  If that actually is true, then there's no way in hell they're going to get rid of all that equipment and just dump the operation because the reward for mining a block got chopped in two--and it was a halving that everyone knew was coming anyway. 

I think OP might be under the impression that these things take miners by surprise.  Hate to break it to him, but that isn't the case.

May be or not, Anything could be possible for this system because we have seen both the positive and negative run of Bitcoin in the last couple of months, but I believe that Bitcoin price will not down more from this stage, for me, day by day Bitcoin is getting a global currency within a limited scope so Bitcoin should be more flourished, I think when Bitcoin would be legalized around the whole world then It might be more acceptable to the people because legalization would bring to us a positive vibe for sure.

It's too soon to decide the price of bitcoin because no miners will bail especially if the price of bitcoin will skyrocket due to massive demand. The price of any currencies will always depend to the demand and as you can see even in the bear season the big whales favor bitcoin over other currencies.

There is only two option right now either the market will continue to goes down or it will recover and it will be decided after the halving.

Mining equipment will likely double in processing speed at the same time in which bitcoin halves for mining, so I think mining equipment will still be profitable now and in the future.

you seem to have forgotten that in 2018 price fell from $20,000 down to $3200 which is about 85% decline and miners didn't leave. in fact the hashrate even grow a little over the course of 2018 and in 2019 ever since the price rises began and  it went back up from $3200 to $13000 the hashrate grow a lot more.

halving will cut the reward in half but also it will lead to a big rise prior to the halving which will actually lead to an increased hashrate. then there will be some drama and panic sell around the day of halving like the past 2 times and then price starts shooting up again.

what you have to keep in mind is that miners, hashrate,.... don't affect the price. demand decides what the price is and then that price affects the miners and their hashrate.

There are so many speculations about what will happen to bitcoin. Some people are saying bitcoin will go down, some people are saying bitcoin will go up, but that is just a speculation, and we don't know what will happen later. If you can think of what might happen to bitcoin, you will prepare for the two conditions that will happen to bitcoin. First, you will make some strategy on how to prevent the down of bitcoin price if the price is really down. Second, you will make another strategy on how to get a profit if the price is up so you can take the benefits from the bitcoin. But everything can happen in the future, and one of that speculation will become real, and we will see what is going on in the future.

The thing that worries me more about bitcoin price is its global adoption rather halving event. If adoption rate doesn't reach to a satisfied level then bitcoin price will surely go down since there will be no point in holding a coin that has no practical use.

No, i don't recall a bitcoin halving that brought the price of bitcoin down. What we mostly see is an increase price and that's the main reason why many crypto investors are off their perception that this halving will bring about high returns on investment. It's good to hold your bitcoins from now till the middle of next year.

Well that's interesting. Pretty much everyone I see is writing about how halving will bring Bitcoin to the new ATH, because the price has been rising since the previous halvings and since the price is supposed to adjust do that mining is profitable. Now, we've seen the latter going all wrong when the price went below $6k, and as for halvings, it's not like the last one was immediately followed by a run, so I still maintain that it is not proven that the price spiked because of it. You might be right about the price going down, but I don't think we can reasonably give preference to one of the predictions here.

learn from the history of halving bitcoin that had happened before, the cycle could be almost the same, the price will go down for a moment after that slowly rising continuously.

Bitcoin halving is happen every 4 years of Cryptocurrency which includes on the coming year 2020. The previous halving doesn't affect the market fall and the market pump which we can see and say that bitcoin halving is not predictable so we must better just wait on what would probably happen on this coming halving.
Some people says that when the bitcoin halving comes, the succeeding month after the halving will become successful in which the market will rise again from the downfall but you counter it meaning you have bases why you can say that. But I think the bitcoin miners will not be on a hard time just because the supply of the bitcoin become lessen.

halving bitcoin in 2020 will come of course this is very taken into account when the market will react to prices, I think bitcoin will experience the same price spike as last year which has happened especially now some bitcoin charts show that bitcoin may fall a few days after being reduced half, and according to investors or bitcoin miners, they estimate that digital assets will experience half every four years.

Yes this can be so but at the same time one must remember that in the past too miners faced halving but instead of the price being reduced it actually increased drastically therefore I think it can be both ways and right now the future is looking bright so , I think it will go up only instead of down , miners are getting paid less now but there are miners who don't mind this and their sole earning way is not just mining for sure, they will have to improvise now.

at first day of halving i also expect that the price  will decrease in the next more months maybe. It will always depend on the addoption of course if there are also hype being made by that time. But for now all is speculation and more people believe that halving will be a big for the price of btc.

A sudden and temporal price dump after halving is normal just like what happen in all previous halving bitcoins price go dump before we see the pump effect of the halving. But as time goes by bitcoins price will rise higher than what it is before halving for sure.
Miners can live off through transaction fees not just by block reward alone it's just that their profit will be lessened.

Bitcoin needs miners but without the community there is no need of miners. The price of Bitcoin is greatly controlled by the community. If the prices soars then with less Bitcoin the miners will still earn good amount.

There is always the other side to everything that we tend to forget.

This is one of the compelling reasons that could drive miners away, and would definitely affect the hash rates and also the prices. Though as we have seen in the past, it doesn't really happen. Maybe it's because the hype and price increase even before the halving keeps the miner from bailing out. Though if the price won't increase for whatever reason, no whale manipulation, no real investor hype, then we could see some quitting out.

In my mind maybe stick with demands will increased. Or maybe last halving which followed by bitcoin's ATH will make people believe it can be happen again and then they start to buy it. So bitcoin price can increased because of that. But if bitcoin price down because of halving, i don't have any choice beside to keep hold.

I doubt if the halving itself will make any difference, as everybody knows about it. What it will do is to provide a topic for the FUDsters, and manipulators to use, and their actions will be the cause of any price movements.

I'm expecting governments and institutions to start mining operations, if they aren't already. This will give them a chance to prioritise their transactions and conceal their actions via wallet manipulations.

Mining equipment needs upgrade and electricity consumption will also increase for the miners. If you are talking about the old equipment still be profitable after tha halving then I think It will not going to be as profitable as before because every halving the block seems to become a lot harder to solve and it requires faster processing unit.

I believe price downfall has many factors. The next bitcoin halving is part of the factors that drives the price down. Its definitely a sad effect of it but basically its really part of the process. It will prolong the journey of bitcoin highest price expectation.

It may or may not, honestly speaking we all hope it can go up, and for me personally, I still have positive thought of it.
There's a lot of factors that can affect the price, but if follow what happened in the past halving, we still have hope

Be quite man, you are talking sedition words

I don't think that because of halving Bitcoin price will fall. However, I don't expect that will significantly rise either. The effect of halving will be short term and probably there will be some price rise but small and on the short breath. Im.short I don't have big expectations from halving neither in positive or in negative way.

this kind of threads are expected since we are nearing Halving in May,but the thing is?almost the same issues happening every same season when we are getting closer to this situation.

for me?we are not getting any higher than the previous halving but i know we can find profit still when this day comes and forward.
he was asking mate,and intended to say anything bad at all.

OP is saying that he is with BTC from 2011, but his post looks like it comes from a complete beginner. He doesn't realize that mining Bitcoin is a very lucrative business, but only for those who have enough money to make an initial investment. Of course, the location and price of electricity play a crucial role in the whole story.

Let's look at an example of Bitmain (https://www.coindesk.com/why-bitmain-is-building-the-worlds-largest-bitcoin-mine-in-rural-texas) (Texas, USA) and what should become the largest Bitcoin mining farm in the world. They will start with 25 megawatts but the plan is to double the capacity after that, with a final power of even 300 megawatts.

So what about ROI in this particular case? Cost for the 50-megawatt farm is from $80 million to $100 million, and with Bitmain Antminer S17 their revenue per year could be $73 million (depending on Bitcoin price). It is quite clear that there are great opportunities to make money in this business, even in the USA where electricity is more expensive than in China.

Halving can only push the price up because reward per block is reducing, of course, demand should rise, or at least stay at the same level as it is today.

If we remember the past halving, the price doesn't crash at all... And i have a theory for this. Miners are the big bulls in the market and they decide the bitcoin price. After each halving, we will see an increment on the price because miners don't want to earn less. This is just my theory and not an absolute truth.

During the past few years halving can be one of the impacts for the price movement to be bullish again, as we know that the price movement until now is still in a sideway condition with a strong support that cannot be broken yet.

I think halving could be one of the reasons for price movements to move up again with the death of support at the price of $ 6400 and try again at the price of $ 10,000 at the beginning of 2020.

if they were mining today while the price is $7K, they would probably mine still if the price of BTC raise up to $10k. this $10k isn't even the ATH yet. once the price of BTC  goes more than $20k, these miners must have sold the BTC which they could reinvest to mining devices. there is no reason for bailing out when its profitable for them besides they'd not mine BTC if their electricity isn't cheap.

my English is bad, do you mean reduce halving block rewards, because I read halving the price, if the price of bitcoin is reduced by half in the next year, I think many miners will lose too many investors and traders out of the market, maybe I think that you the intent is half a block reward, where the prize per block is around 12.5 BTC to 6.25 BTC at halving 2020, miners obviously get very little if calculated for profits will be difficult if the price is below $ 5,000 according to my calculations

its not reasonable for the price to go down because of bitcoin halving
as long as miner continues to grow and support bitcoin the price will always rise because of decrease of the block reward

I don't believe that miners are setting the price. In the end it's a simple supply and demand question. The much more interesting topic will be, if the stock to flow chart will come true as expected.

The first and second halving of bitcoin we experienced a good result but after a several months happen so I guess let say after a year, not on exact date happen on the next halving. To be honest, no one knows what will happen in that event of the next halving. If the first and second was successfully pumped up the price of bitcoin, so, there is a possibility that it will raise up again on this third time. Just let's wait and be ready the possible happen. Accumulate for now and invest that you can afford to risk.

Well, I also have another theory about this. bitcoin users are increasing every day, as well as people's needs regarding cryptocurrency. when halving occurs, mining will slow down. This will make the supply and demand for bitcoin increase, and result in price increases. I believe this will happen, and I think the price of bitcoin is less likely to go down when halving.

Everything is possible to happen. Bitcoin miners will be leaving if the price remains low. But bitcoin users are also growing all over the world. Many companies are starting to accept it also as mode of payments. These should be enough to sustain bitcoin price and miners will remain believing for a long term increase.

I do not understand what you mean, it should be that if the production of bitcoin gets slower then the price of bitcoin will increase. if bitcoin becomes more difficult to obtain the miners will sell it at a higher price, and that can be a trigger for bull run. this is market law, my advice is that you should learn about market law.

I have a friend who thinks exactly like this and is adamant that the price will be down near to the halving. If this is even true for a small part then what might happen to altcoins.?
This argument was there even in the past but the haters are more at this moment.

There used to be short term dumps near the previous halvings. It's normal for groups of people to try to take profit to err on the side of caution. Halving is a big event that can cause turmoil if something goes wrong. It's like when you swap engine in your car and take it for the first test ride. Some people will bet on this ride ending in a failure of one of the systems, even if they know the swap was made in a professional manner. With new things there's always that uncertainty if they'll work.
As time goes by and nothing bad happens the investors will come back.

Lately, the price of altcoin goes up and down with the price of bitcoin. So if bitcoin tanks, so will altcoins. There is nothing we can do about it. Good thing is, bitcoin price normally goes up a few months after the halving. So crypto will be alive again. I expect a better bull run after the halving.

Maybe you might need to read the laws of demand and supply again and understand that halving has been following this laws. Bitcoin halving reduce the number of supply that hit the market daily and it is going to affect price by following the dictates of the economics laws.

I still don't see how it's fundamentally different than the last halving. Marginal miners who become unprofitable after the halving will shut down. Other miners will take their place. Looking at the difficulty trend over the years, miners are still very bullish on BTC, so I don't see why anything will change.

I don't think anything is ever "priced in" until after the fact. Check out stock-to-flow vs. price in 2012 and 2016. There was a little pump prior to the halvings but the exponential increases came later: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5191012.msg52690215#msg52690215

Price would always vary on the demand and we know that it did happened back in the past where halving events do really have significant positive outcome onwards.

But somehow we cant really guarantee that we would see the same scenario yet rewards been cut in half.When we do talk about miners then for sure the one who would
survive are to those have bigger farms or lots of rigs.This is indeed a business and shutting down is not really that relevant.

It's possible but we can't be so sure on what we say until we get there. For now that is just speculation like those bull run speculation after halving. If your words is true plus panic selling, that can cause the price to fall, then we may have a chance to buy at a cheaper price. But I really doubt btc will fall, don't forget about our saying "history repeat itself" and just like previous halving, the price of btc will increase and will set a new ATH. Right now, all we can do is wait and see who is right, bullish or bearish prediction.

Doesnt sound correct to me, demand outranks production for importance barring the quality of a protocol which is not exactly what miners do.   If miners drop out enough then the difficulty adjusts to accommodate that fall in production, isnt the protocol set in its schedule to self adjust.
   People over speculate the halvening, thats what tends to happen.  Sure its a tightening to the standard but its afterwards that this process starts to occur not before yet the speculation is in anticipation.    Dont worry about it too much, I would call it similarly to last time where the lesson for me seems to be that the year after not the year containing the halvening is where more action will occur.    People are too impatient always, a good base has to be built for reasonable movement in the price so that might mean we stay 'low' or sideways for 6 months and its not even that negative if it does that for the whole of 2020 imo.
   We are just a boat, or an armada even in a whole sea of changes and BTC relys on many things to transform, change, tides to shift before price goes up/down.  I only worry if BTC can adapt and keep being useful but the miners are workers.  I dropped out of mining years ago and nobody seemed to mind or the many of us now not mining, it sails on without us.

I'd say this over speculation goes in both directions. For every person who expects the halving to catalyze a bull run, another person (or maybe 2) claims it's already priced in and that this time will be different.

Personally, I think halvings are just "buy the rumor, sell the news" events taking place along a long term bullish trajectory.

It takes several months before we see its either a positive or negative impact but the previous halving are sees to good, making this new coming halving will also help to increase the support level. Not sure if it will drive for the bullish market but all just having hope that it changes the price direction. Nothing more I want.

if many miners stop for that reason, then some surviving miners will benefit, and if miners who stop using bitcoin start buying bitcoin, won't the demand increase? this will increase the price. however, at the moment I think that the next halving will make the price of bitcoin higher.

I think the same way. In this market there is a rule that is "buying rumors, selling news" ... this rule is always true in this market and so I also predict that the price of bitcoin will rise in the months before BTC halving, but then the price will fall. It will be similar to the situation of LTC in 2019. So we should not be too optimistic and believe in the bull market in 2020.

True that we can see it on the history of Bitcoin price during the halving.  Price goes up months before the halving and goes down after it, then comes the bullish trend of breaking ATH because the effect of the halving is felt by the market.  Remember reduced supply and increased demand will always result in price increase and LTC case is a bit different because I believe there is no increase in demand in there, just hype.

Except history has shown us time and time again that this is simply not true. The last halving, and the halving before the last halving all resulted in significant gains in price for BTC.

Based on market expectations alone it should be sufficient to say that there will at least be a resurgence in bullish sentiment, if not anything else.

BTW, isn't hash rate climbing at this current moment? I recall seeing an article yesterday about how bitcoin hash rate has been climbing consistently. The newfound scarcity of coins after the halving will result in price hikes that will likely push miner rewards up in fiat terms anyhow.

It has only been 2 halvings. This is not much data to be certain that miner capitulation will not occur on the next one. Also, bitcoin is more regulated today than 4 years ago. It might be harder to pump without the institutional investors' help.

And who told you that?
There is a Miner in your name? Are you one of them?

In that case then, the difficulty will be reduced. Transaction validation will be easier.
Yeah, they might be the backbone of the bitcoin network but still there are miners out there who are waiting for their chance to get in.
They just cannot do it because of the hardware that they have. But if given a chance, I think they really want to do it in bitcoin instead of other coins.

I actually agree with you and I'm betting on a bullish 2020, but a sample size of 2 isn't exactly "time and time again." Something happening twice could be nothing more than a coincidence.


Difficulty just rose 6.57%. It was flat for a month before that. Nothing huge but this is obviously not the "miner capitulation" some people were FUD'ing about.

Truly it is hard to pump the market without institutional investors. As of now we need regulation for the betterment of the market, but for some reason when regulated governments will try to have control over the market. When things go under a centralized authority the growth will get disturbed. Before the next halving entire bitcoin might be mined.

If the past previous halving pumps the price of bitcoin I wouldn't believe a contrary price behavior in this year halving, price history will always repeat itself although I would agree that there may be a temporary decline or drop in the price of bitcoin after the halving however a pump is imminent in the aftermath of the halving let us watch how the price action would unfold during that period.

Absolutely not.

In fact the increased costs of miners per coin may well push bitcoin prices up because they are unwilling to sell these coins at low costs, especially with the expectation that halving will bring with it substantial price hikes in the BTC markets. And by your logic, all of the halvings previously should have resulted in BTC crashing, but evidently that has not been the case.

You're overworrying in my opinion. 2020 should prove to be much more bullish than 2019 proved to be.

wow what an explanation i just read , it sounds like science because of the words ecological ,  bone marrow and life blood  .

 yes that is true that halving cause an issue to miners based on what i read but there are still good factors that will go live once halving was done and can counter some bad effects which still lead to bitcoin to continue working  .   everybody speculates positive news about btc halving while you are here opposing with them  .

Maybe or maybe not, to be frank, anything could be expected for this market because in the last couple of months we've seen both the positive and negative run of Bitcoin. But I don't think Bitcoin's price will fall any further from this stage, for me, Bitcoin is a unique technology that can change the world, so Bitcoin should flourish. I think when Bitcoin is legalised all over the world then people might find it more appropriate as legalisation would certainly bring us a positive atmosphere.

Looking at your statement you are not aware of the market and how it performs after halving, if you check the past market trend you will very well know that the market will not move just after the halving you need to wait for a year to see the real rally to commence and that been said you can be optimistic that the market will rally in the next one year but i am not expecting the reversal in the next two years where the price will go down. 

Am not sure this will happen because I don't believe we have seen this happen in the past but if it eventually happens will we all still remain in this market since Bitcoin and crypto currency market has come to stay.

You have a point dude anything can be happen during or before the 2020 halving we cannot know wheres the bottom of bitcoin but for me this falling down of bitcoin is a good sign for a near bull run.
Thats why if you believe in bitcoin potential then buy at the drop and hold until you will get a good return.

I may become optimistic this time and for the halvings that happen previously it has a positive impact and it surely will happen the same.
However, it could be some in patience knowing the fact that it never been reflected the market price instantly. It could be months or a year after.
That would be long but that is usually the results and it's up to us think it positively or negatively.

Or it could be the way to make it pump again.
Less miners means a better opportunity for everyone to be a miner even without strong computers.

Difficulty will be lowered.
Before, that was the idea of satoshi but because of greed people want more of it and they saw how the market react with it.
After the halving is unknown, it could lead to a better bitcoin or the other way. I still hope for the better one.

Halving has three times but not once has bitcoin let me down, and I think this time too.  Especially in the context of the bear market, a lot of people are losing money due to the high purchase price and this is an opportunity for them to buy more in 2020.  When a mass crowd does this at the same time, the market will grow.  Do not think too negatively, it will be bad for trading results.

It looks like the whole topic was started by someone who thinks they are smarter than the wisdom they actually have. Trying to use words like ecological and bone marrow and life blood etc are provides these things, the real wisdom comes from explaining things as simple as they get, tolkein literally wrote a whole series of fictional world and what happens with a language as simple as a kindergarden kid can understand.

All he tried to say was "bitcoins whole nature is dependent on miners who are now quitting or will quit after halving" and that's it. The point is miners leaving will mean hashrate will drop which causes other miners to pick up the slack and make the transactions around the same speed, there could be 10x more miners or 10% of current and system still works exactly same thanks to dynamic movement of hashrates.

Self-regulated and automatically managed systems are a wonderful thing, aren't they? :)

Even if old miners exit, new miners will come in, what may appear to be not lucrative to some miners will be adopted by others. But what I see is a core miner ecosystem run by bitcoin maximalists, who will do everything to protect the integrity of the Bitcoin blockchain (both economically and technologically).

Though you have a point and there is a possibility too as I read some articles about it. But personally, I don't think it will really happen in reality. The price of Bitcoin may drive down after the halving but the main growth may happen after 6 months to one year! But I am afraid that this time bull run may not happen because of the over hype!

While I also think that he is worrying too much we cannot discard the idea that if the price of bitcoin does not go up during the next halving this will create problems for the miners that are not as profitable, and while most likely they have reserves to try to keep their operations running they may come to the point in which they need to sell their coins for a loss and as we know no business can run for long when something like that happens.

We cannot predict what will happen to the price of bitcoin after halving where it will be boost its price or it will cause massive crash. But one thing is sure and there will be changes after the halving. I do not rely on others opinion, I see now a lot of posts about halving and I observed that there are now many hyped people because of this news. I will only base my actions on what will happen in halving.

If will be many miners who retreat / stop.
is it possible for miners to make blocks easier even if parts per block are reduced or cut 50% ?

OP's reasoning doesn't make sense. Price is not going to fall due to a halving from less mining reward. Though I wouldn't be surprised if there is a dump after the halving because the halving itself should be a non-event in the market and I think lots of people expect it to be a big event. In reality there is a very delayed hugely positive effect of the halving - likely 2021 will be a huge year for Bitcoin's price gain thanks to the gradual decrease of how much Bitcoin is hitting the market over a long period of time due to the halving. But its not gonna change the market dynamics immediately, but I think a lot of people expect it to, and a lot of attention will be paid to it not causing a positive effect in price in the media, and that will probably cause people to sell after nothing happens from the halving. Then it will recover and keep going up and like a year later we'll all see the huge positive effect of the halving start to take place.

The block reward will be reduced and obviously if its still profitablr for them to mine a bitcoin then they will stay at the same. Because i have a friend who still mine bitcoin and he is using a solar power electricity that is why its not a problem for the cost but the price of the gfx.

And i think PoS will be much profitable for those who doesn't want to mine using gfx or PoW.

yes of course it cannot be ascertained whether bitcoin will increase or vice versa after reducing it in half. most likely after that event, there will be a big change in market price movements in the future.

and I feel that everyone's hopes will come true after that event happens

Supply reduction wont be the cause of price going down, the external over speculation of a simple event might cause it but thats on the people who play around with prices too much not the actual protocol altering in a perfectly predictable way.

Miners are constantly being shed every month probably, every person and enterprise has their personal cut off for returns on investment in Bitcoin.  BTC cannot operate alone in the world, its only one of a whole range of contrasting choices to expend energy and capital on in order to achieve some task and the hope of some profit.    Miners do not determine success, workers not managers imo.

But that is the issue, while the halving itself is not going to make the price to go up immediately that is the expectation that many people have in the forum and when those expectations fail even if they are out of place it could produce a negative effect in the price, I do not think it is likely but to deny the possibility is there will be to deny an scenario that if it were to happen it will take us by surprise, and if there is something I do not like is to be surprised by an event I could foresee.

There is always a possibility that you are right but even if the price will go down then it will be the right time to buy more bitcoins because for sure it will increase again just like what is happening now, as we can see bitcoin is slowly increasing but of course lets not be contented on it. There is a lot of possibilities will happen in the future, I am just sure that bitcoin halving will affect the price of bitcoin.

When there is growth, surely there is down market. This is common with all forms of investments. When it comes to cryptocurrency, the market changes were very big and the same takes place in a much shorter time period. Till date the demand to the reduction in supply by the halving is predicted to cause price pumping. Once after the entire supply is available in the market it is quite hard to predict what happens by the time.

That's quite the opposite of what everyone is expecting for this upcoming halving, if the price would go down, it would not follow the trend but we have no choice but to accept it and wait for another opportunity that bitcoin will pump, however, you statement IMO will less likely to happen.

I'm on the opposite side and with everyone who thinks this halving will bring a bullish market.

I think because the amount of BTC getting market sold daily by miners gets cut in half, and people who are buying crypto daily remains the same, the price slowly and surely starts going up. Then, media takes notice of this, new people start FOMOing in, more media takes notice causing even more new people FOMOing in, and price begins to rise up and up. Eventually, it culminates to dumb money buying crypto, and price eventually collapses. But, the true believers of Bitcoin never sell, so the price can’t go to deeper than previous low. This is why the Bitcoin price lows are higher in each subsequent four year cycle than the previous one.

There won't be a sudden impact, that is where people are wrong. Price is already considering the halving into it already and we are doing all our movements knowing about the halving. I am not talking about the day traders who will trade daily no matter what, I am talking about people who are selling their coins for good (or at least for a while) and people who buy the same way, don't you think those people already know whats going on with bitcoin?

Don't you think they know about the halving already? They know and they do what they do anyway so that means that price as it is right now is halving considered and whatever movement it does is irrelevant to halving. Whenever halving happens the price getting affected takes a long time to actually happen and I am pretty sure it will be the same this time around as well.

I disgree. The regulators should leave the cryptospace alone. You are a Ripple investor, correct? Would you want the SEC to takedown Ripple XRP because it is an illegal security?

In any case, this might an unliked sentiment, however, we might be trapped in a state of denial.

https://i.ibb.co/wsy17h1/6-A1-CCAB7-E046-47-CE-8438-66762-B15-EE94.jpg

Psychology of a Market Cycle: Are Bitcoin Investors In Denial?

There exists a schematic depicting the psychology driving the different stages of a market cycle, and it often gets shared in response to the current sentiment in Bitcoin markets.

According to the “Wall Street Cheat Sheet,” investors in the first-ever cryptocurrency could be in denial and will be caught off guard if Bitcoin falls significantly lower from here.

Source https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/01/09/psychology-of-a-market-cycle-are-bitcoin-investors-in-denial/

No one really knows but it should be that way, if there's more investors to comes in and real supporters will keep on holding the value will surely rise up. Numbers of coins that will be mined is much lesser than it's previous,  the cycle also helps you to follow the path you just need to go deeper for much better understanding of this industry.

Short-term dumps used to be near the previous halvings. Trying to take advantage of erring on the side of caution is common for groups of people. Halving is a big event that, if something goes wrong, can cause trouble. It's like changing your car's engine and taking it for the first test ride. Some people will bet on this ride ending in a system failure, even if they know that the swap has been made in a professional way. There's always that doubt about new things if they're going to work.

There's so much talk about what's going to happen to bitcoin. Others say bitcoin will go down, others say bitcoin will go up, but that's just a guess, and we don't know what's going to happen later. If you can think about what might happen to bitcoin, you're going to be prepared for the two circumstances that will happen to bitcoin. Second, if the price is really down, you're going to make some plan on how to avoid the downward price of bitcoin. Second, if the price is up, you're going to make another tactic on how to make a profit so you can take advantage of the bitcoin.

Others comparing the price of bitcoin about the previous result in halving. The first and second halving results showed that it is dropped after the halving occurs. So the prediction in the future result of the third time of the next halving will probably the same as the previous result, this is was expected to happen and I think the history will speak regarding the speculations or probably it will never happen. Nevertheless, no one will know what will happen next in the bitcoin price.

If we see bitcoin price history , in halving time bitcoin rising from last halving arround 30 times, like at last halving the price arround $650 at first halving $12.
I think during halving wencan reach $12k or $24k

Bitcoin halving is the best time how to make bitcoin back to higher price, we are waiting with halving to bring back bitcoin and altcoin how ever raise with higher price above $16,000 for bitcoin and take to the same moment in this year to make bitcoin really on the top price, we not worry if bitcoin and altcoin have been in higher price because many investment like IEO and ICO back to higher price too.

We don't know what will happen after the halving and some are predicting that the value could go up more than $50,000 but some sayings that it might go down below $3,500 and still it is really easy to predict and analyze the market but we don't know the flow of the market.

And all we have to do for now is to accumulate as much as we can.

Those random predictions everywhere just like the Bitcoin going to touch $50k, $100k, $200k, or even $1M are just a wild guesses. We will see that price soon but not after the halving this year because I highly doubt if Bitcoin would even closely touch to $50k. Bitcoin may be down again or will meet the bottom but I don't know what will be bottom price if that's going to happen someday.

Well, we can only see this development after halving. however, so far there have been two halvings, and both have had good effects. at this time there will be a third halving, and some people assume that prices will fall. Well, I don't know what underlies them speculate like that, but I quite believe that they also have assets that are being held to wait for the pump because of halving.

prices are already going up even without halving and so it will shoot the moon whenever there is halving and this were proven many times in the past. i couldn't say times had change already but looking into BTC price right now since 2009, it looks like the price  had gone up and its not even the ATH yet. the best is yet to come they say.

you know the miners who quits are the ones who loses. its been that way when hashes favors the ones thats left to mine.

Nothing is certain when it comes to bitcoins price but those numbers or digits are totally unrealistic imho.If the demand would retain until the very end then i dont see for bitcoin to drop that
much even after several halvings.Yes, it do affects miners but i dont see for it to be a valid reason for them to completely stop.There would be a few but not all of them.
They would still consider out to continue since they do know that this business would still make out money even block reward is already cut in half.

yes we really can't know what will happen in the future after half of that bitcoin happens, although many people believe market prices will rise sharply so that it follows history in the past, but of course the market price is very wild at any time it could decline again or vice versa

For me, as the halving occurs, it would only mean a decrease in the overall supply of Bitcoin, and if the miners bail it would cause  the supply of Bitcoin to be more limited than what it would have to be, this would only mean that the supply of Bitcoin will be reduced massively causing a massive pump. Referring to the law of supply and demand wherein the if the supply would go down, the demand for Bitcoin would certainly increase big. Because, more demand is equals to price hike. Lower supply = higher demand so is the price.