Bitcoin Forum

In 2016 the halving was early July.  Depending on the exchange, the price was as follows:

May 1, 2016 $453
June 1, 2016 $536
July 1, 2016 just before the halving $677

The price increased about 50% from May 1 to July 1 just before the halving event.

Should we expect something similar this time?

As we expected I think it will happen after the halving coz we all know that the halving season is near and only have few months but until now there is no movement on the bitcoin's value. So my speculation is the value of bitcoin will raise after the halving season.

That is hard to tell for sure. So far Bitcoin has proved that it doesn't necessary behave according to some patterns so it's not very clever to compare with situation in 2016.
To my opinion we might see some price rise before halving but that will probably be temporary and it will not last for a longer period of time. Also I don't expect to see some huge price jump.

Chances is that it will increase in price, but the ranging of values or percentage that it may get may still be lower than 2016,as year 2016 as many people still investing since governments were not that strict that time in implementing bitcoin unlike now that many puts bad name in crypto due to banning of some countries. However many long time believer might add more investment in their portfolio before halving as we believe btc is still have a chance to be bullish again.

Indeed, it definitely increase in value during or at least after the halving, but since governments are more stern with the laws and taxes they apply we shouldn't expect it to be much. Though it should still be something considerable. As of now there are no major changes in the price of bitcoin so it's safe to say that there is still a couple of months before the halving happens.

Others said that history repeats itself! But still let's not rely on it, as the price from the year 2016 was far different from the price this year!

Expecting too much from the price will really hurt you as an investor, so let's just play safe and invest only the money we can afford to lose, let's be wise always. 

Very well said I am strongly agree with you. The bitcoin's price today is really far from this past years prices. And nobody knows how high its gonna be. Let's just wait for that moment and dont expect too much in order to avoid dissappointment. Let's just take this as a motivation in holding coins until the halving and prevent spending too much coins for nonsense or else you will regret.

You know the saying: "it works until it doesn't". We could have surge in price or not - for me it doesn't matter. I just care about the actual halvening of mining rewards. That means less supply for an hopefully increasing demand. Moreover I expect the PlusToken bitcoin dumpers to deplete their stock thus relieving some of the sell pressure in the market. Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst ;)

Well 50% isn't much, so it might occur. Even if it does, miners would still be earning less than the day before halving, if the price stays the same, they would earn exactly half, but if it increases 50%, they would be earning something like 75%.

Its a reasonable price to settle for, but anything could happen, temporarily that is.

So if price was assumed 7k (ignoring the latest uptrend) then 11.5k is 50% which sounds about right.

"Past performance is no guarantee of future results", as what I have heard in this community for many years now. And I think it is true even up to this day. With that said, we really can't say if the price will increased by 50% or not. So that only thing we can do for now is wait and see how it goes. Another thing to remember is that the market is still young that we can't compare it's past historical graphs because there's not much data to compare, to begin with.

We can expect for the chances because the similarity of the past halving and the one that we're having right now is showing. I'm confident that it will actually increase soon but better if we'd go and look for the future effect instead of the before-effect of the halving.
We knew what came next after the halving last time and this is more intriguing and exciting at the same time because we're talking about thousands of gains.

In 2016 Bitcoin price had a rally BEFORE the halving and reached $779 20 days before halving, then there was correction and local low was $465 one month after the halving. And then 5 months of uptrend with a top at $1140.
If we try to project that to this year's situation, I'm predicting 12k to 14k on halving day (May 13), after that a correction to 10k and then long lasting uptrend with 21k to 24k till end of the year 2020.

No problem if you hope a similar scheme may happen but don't expect too much. 2020 is much different than in 2016, the hype of Bitcoin asset isn't the same as that year. Most investors today are very careful and selective to invest their money. Moreover, pump-dump is like a new trend in crypto market currently. So, even though the possibility is always there, but we must also consider the current facts. 

Expect, no. Possible and likely, yes.

Looking at the price 6 months before halvings and 12 months after has resulted in large fiat gains. Betting against it is a bad idea.

This year after the halving, there are more uses, more people aware of those uses, and a much smaller new supply as compared to the previous halvings. So more demand, less supply leads one to think it is likely the price will increase.

It looks like we’re already seeing people preparing for the upcoming halving. It also could be a little FOMO going on as well.

In reality, many people believe that halving is already discounted in the price if you follow the theories of down.

What I recommend you to do is research for yourself what has changed from 2016 and 2017 so far, there are more institutional players, a more robust market and more financial products such as derivatives and options.

of course, we must continue to hope and try, nothing is impossible in this world, I am sure that will be achieved if we all continue to work hard .. !!

maybe it can happen, I don't research data about bitcoin prices every year, But according to technical analysis as far as I know that the price of bitcoin is starting to show an up trend, as I said before that there is no analysis that is really 100% accurate, that's just my opinion, it's better to do your own research don't rely too much on other people's analysis.

Indeed. The circumstances surrounding this year's halving is a lot different from the last one. We can't really base the results on what happened previously, especially at this point in time as it's likely the opposite may happen. Just like 2018's last quarter when people were expecting a rebound from the bear market, only to have the price plunge to that year's all time low.

I don't think it would get to 50% gains, the market sentiment is different from this day, due to more informed investors, more restriction by the government, tougher competition, and such factors. But it's most likely to gain somewhere around 30% just enough to break $10,000 border. Then a stall might happen, but the long-term uptrend should be evident.

In my opinion, most likely history will repeat itself. The events that occurred in 2016 will repeat in 2020, therefore it nothing wrong
to make preparations before that happens. By starting to buy bitcoin from now on gradually, we can too see already two days bitcoin
prices continue to rise. This is likely a sign that before halving occurs the price of bitcoin will continue go up. Don't miss a big opportunity
like now to continue to collect as many Bitcoins as possible.

Being an user of bitcoin for years I never thought of price increase for any specific time period. Always my choice is to prepare for the worst case, in this volatile market it is quite hard to predict precisely and benefit from it. If price has increased over the previous halvings it doesn't mean the same should take place this time. Looking upon the growth happening by now, there is more probability for continued price increase around the days of halving.

yeah maybe that could happen because these days the value of bitcoin continues to increase. if bitcoin will experience the same thing as in 2016 then in this month bitcoin will increase and reach a price of $ 11,000. let's see if bitcoin can really go up by 50% before bitcoin is reduced by half. it is very difficult to predict the price of bitcoin we can only wait.

Things have changed now, bitcoin traders are well informed now, although not all most are still speculators which is okay for the ecosystem. I expect the price to sharply increase just before the halving because of general sentiment of a possible price increase and never coming down.

Let's be hopeful rather to have an expectation regarding this. Year 2016-2017 was a big year for everyone even me, I've recieve so much failure thag year but still I have earn also, and I am hoping that this year would be abundant for everyone here, 2018-2019 was not a good years for all us since so much setbacks was made and I guess this platform is slowly regaining the thing that it has to offer for us,let's keep on working.

I also hope that the price of bitcoin will rise to high levels this year because basically every half of bitcoin supply decreases, and demand also rises so that it will start a new bullish market condition but that will happen if bitcoin follows the same pattern as before.
and if we look at the price of bitcoin lately continues to rise slowly whether this is a sign that all that will happen.

almost the same as the technical price of 2012, the movement will slow down but rise slowly and move away from the prices of previous years, the turning point is always one year later where the rate of increase moves up to 15% per day, there will be many dramas this year trying to inhibit the rise, but it does not change anything in the increase in price activity on the chart which continues to get a reaction to the increase in demand.

I believe one thing that when there is a will, there is a way, Since people are expecting this type of even so it would happen within this year, without getting benefitted no one could carry this system for a long time, so it's a demand for a long time that when the Bitcoin halving will occur, I am not going to predict about the percentage of increasing but I believe that Bitcoin price will bring to us a good chance for making profit, That's why I am hoping to hold Bitcoin for the long run. another important thing you have to believe that history repeats itself for making another history.

I think it is more likely that the price may rise before halving in the same scenario as in 2016. But it may be less than 50%, because the price of digital gold is now much higher than in that period.

It's hard to predict because some people says this halving will not too similar such as the previous halving but starting this month bitcoin price already raise up more than 10% compare to last month so seems this is good sign to starting this year and we are still several month remaining before halving and i think yes the price will increase but i don't know at what level would be the highest price before halving

In previous halving there was room for price to move up. Price of bitcoin is already too high as compared to previous coin halving and I don't think bitcoin price may go too high due to coin halving. These are early days of bitcoin since it got mass adoption and we will see with time how bitcoin will behave against such incidents.

I say this could happen and see what will surprise the beginners about bitcoin, usually new traders are still fairly beginners do not know about the power after halving, they crossed off the chart as they please, you can see my word here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5043315.msg53459244#msg53459244)

I and some people are still on the right side where many famous people in bitcoin say the same thing will repeat history, see when after halving, so everyone will take their tickets from now on

We do hope that it will be that way before halving but there is a ton of possibility that may happen, price may even drop before halving. We basically can't predict nor guess what will happen all we can do is hope for better things to happen.
Price of bitcoins now is continous in rising which gives us a hope that it will be like what happened in 2016 where bitcoins price increase for more than 40% before halving.

let us not play so positive because there are so many things that may cross the way before halving specially this War of US and Iran,the possibilities of effect in crypto market is there so be careful expecting too much.

the best way to deal with this?use it as short term trading and not holding,2-5% profit is enough each trade so if ever the price starts to drop again then we are more safer than holding for the whole year.

This is what most of us are expecting and hoping for.
But we couldn'tbe so sure about the price increase before the halving or what to expect before and after the halving.
Maybe some of the investor would hold until the halving is done and then sell all of their BTC.

It is true since history only repeats itself, so we can expect that something similar might happen this time.
No one is really sure about what might happen next, it can be positive or negative, we can only know the answer once halving is near and after it.

Many expectations with this halving, in my view bitcoin price could possibly rise before or after halving. But, these days it's good to see that the price of bitcoin is increasing. Hopefully, there are changes in bitcoin this year since we're waiting longer to make it happen.

It's slowly increasing now... Although with different reason. We are all hoping for that, and we can expect that it will also increase just like what happened before but we also shouldn't rely too much on the history. "History repeats itself" yeah but not on every cases. An increase might happen but possibly not the same as before in 2016.

There are some analyst says that Bitcoin halving won't do anything with the price and some other believes that bull run may not follow after the halving.
I'm having thoughts that if bull run won't hit this year then probably it will take an effect next year just like what happened in halving in 2016 where Bitcoins price surge 2017. There might be no bull happen this year but I am pretty sure that Bitcoin will pump.

No doubt about it!! History will repeat itself or maybe the next bull run will be a significant one. As the day passes bitcoin will start to go up little by little. And by 2nd quarter of the year bitcoin is above 15,000$. Before halving 25,000, , before the end of year 35,000$.

That is only natural. If we can go back to see the result of our previous halving, it really helps to increase the price of bitcoin. Right now, it shows a positive outcome as we have previously, we can see bitcoin's price increasing slowly. Just believe in bitcoin and our hopes will come for sure.

Current Bitcoin price is much higher than previous periods, but we can still hope that the price of bitcoin can still grow sharply because of what bitcoin has shown in recent days. Bitcoin  price has risen sharply from $ 6,500 to $ 8,500 in just one week and there are still signs of further increase. Prices are rising because of the impact of the war, and the price of bitcoin will increase in the near future as the halving gets closer. The goal I set for Bitcoin in 2020 is to reach at least $ 15,000

As far as the bitcoin price movement today its going up and hopefully it will continue. Its really unpredictable but I guess what happen in 2016 may still happen this year. The price increase as soon as many will continue to demand for it. Before the halving occur, many people will probably take advantage of the moment to buy more bitcoin.

In my opinion bears can't fight a supply shock, if it is easier to long than to short, then that will happen. The price will have to increase, even before halvening. Further, the economics of mining depends on it. without mining, Bitcoin will go to nothing. This is classic supply and demand and it works. If there are fewer BTC and they are truly useful, then they certainly will rise in price. I don't think BTC will disappear, so the only real market alternative is higher BTC prices, at least until there is a balance point. For sake of miners and BTC's ongoing viability, that balance point will need to be higher to enable any mining.

Hopefully it will happen so we can earn profit from what we are holding right now.  We are not 100% sure about it but we still hope because of what happened last 3 years ago. But when we compare the value of bitcoin now it was higher than what it is before last December.

I would say that according to statistics, bitcoin's price was stable before halving and even after that for a while. Actual rise started in November, after 3-4 months from halving it went from 600$ to 700$ and then went up and up, we had amazing rise, this process for me was like a rush of dopamine. Price rise didn't start in May because you have to consider that a lot of things happened at that time, for example hashocean had scam exit and believe me a lot of people had invested there, because of this scam everyone thought that they would sell their coins in a hurry and price would decrease. There were still a lot of moments to remember from previous halving.
Personally I would say that we will see clear picture after some months from halving, not right now or not right the day after halving.

Surely we should expect a similar this year. The current bitcoin price has risen 20% from the bottom of $ 6400 last week, this year I believe bitcoin can rise to more than 100% and the bitcoin price will reach at least $ 14000-15000. Halving bitcoin will take place in May, so it is still early for us to invest in bitcoin and wait for profit. The bull market is just beginning and it will last until Q2 Q3 2020 before we fall again.

This really gives me hope that price will pump this year because of what happened in 2016. Most are expecting it already because of the halving and they are preparing for it beforehand so maybe they're already buying Bitcoin, that is why it increases. I'm also expecting from halving. Also with the current news that said also affects bitcoin's current price.

We should not expect this again because bitcoin trend is so different now and it is unpredictable. And i think bitcoin price will be more volitle now and we will see more suddenly dump and pump in unexpected time.

That's why we need to be prepare always and don't buy at every pump with no valid reasons.

Currently we are already seeing such price increases.

It has been since the start of 2020 where Bitcoin value has grown by 19%. Currently being at $8.300.

It was mentioned at some news sites and twitters that price would be increasing its value by 10% each week till the next halving.

Not only that but US attacks have been pumping / boosting even more the price value over the course of recent days / events.

Before the previous in 2016, but market has started and the price of bitcoin increased. So, the tendency that the past would repeat itself is likely but not 100% certain.

But it is certain that holders will not lose but gain profit at later months after halving if at all the bull does not start early. So, what matters most is the bull run to start this year so investors can profit.

I really do not think so. Maybe, the price of bitcoin will rise up after the halving like what happen in 2016. It takes a year first before the price of bitcoin goes up to 20000$. So maybe this year, the halving might take effect and change the price of bitcoin after one year. But we are all hoping that before halving happens, the bitcoin will slowly going up now.

Usually whenever some important events for Bitcoin is lined, price goes up out of fomo. This is again gonna happen this year pre halving. What I am thinking is of taking this opportunity to swing trade before halving. Exit before the halving to take out the profits and enter when the euphoria settles.
I have tried this during forks too and it worked pretty well.

Maybe? bitcoin's price is already rising. According to the market, it climbs up smoothly to 8,200$ now.
There might be also a chance that this year 2020, bull run will happen. Most of the investors are expecting these changes, I hope they're right for the decisions they made since we aren't still sure if it will happen the same thing last 2016.

We probably expect a good increase of bitcoin's price in the next halving, we need just to wait and hold our bitcoin because I'm sure that the price will increase higher this year. I hope that the price will increase back to 20k$ by the halving if we're so lucky or maybe at the end of this year.

I don't think we will see the price for halving itseems may be due to regular and periodic growth we may find the same again here in the marketplace. But if you believe that growth also because of halving means your mind will not show anything.
Then after halving also we will find some dump and next year we will find the skyrocket in bitcoin.

I think it's very difficult to predict the price of bitcoin. 4 days ago bitcoin continues to increase and has reached the price of $ 8k. but today bitcon is down again and is at $ 7k. and in my opinion bitcoin will not experience an increase before decreasing by half as in 2016. Because if I see bitcoin is still in a downtrend. maybe bitcoin will increase after decreasing by half in May.

We can hope bitcoin's price will be in an uptrend in the next week. It's no problem if this weekend, bitcoin price is down because bitcoin is adjusting the price, so, in the next week, the price can start to increase and break the higher-level price. I am sure that the bitcoin price will have a big opportunity to grow to the highest price as we saw in 2017-2018, and no matter when, the bitcoin price will start to rise. Just make sure that you have much bitcoin so you will have your chance to sell bitcoin at a high price.

Agree, Also the market is just starting to recover from the loss this 2020, I think there is still a lot of time for the market to recover from the dump so let's give it some time considering there is a lot of delay and resistance in the market price of bitcoin and also there is war going on.

It could be there are so many speculations in the market but I think having this pump and dump in the market is also whats makes bitcoin profitable most of the time a lot of investors could buy low and sell high most of the time in this situation. But still, we are hoping for the market to pump like happened in the past.

Right now this is purely speculation but everytime the halving event is near the price starts to surge drastically but this is not ordinary times because price movements in BTC is a bit unpredictable these days and sometimes the more people expects a bullrun, the more the price goes down. So, right now nothing is clear unless its confirmed in a technical perspective.

History might repeat itself but there's no assurance for this, we can only assume halving can give a positive result to the price of bitcoin but its hard to rely on this. Better to not have an expectation so you wont get disappointed.

Nevertheless anything is possible in crypto sometimes what we dont expect can happen because the market is really unpredicted.

Previous halving came with price increase and i think this will do same. The current rise in price of BTC is not connected to the halving news in my own opinion. Nonetheless, as we approach the date, there will be a significant increase in the price of BTC as halving is a major event.

Hopefully this will happen because im lose huge amount of money here before when i bought bitcoin on peak of the price.  But i think it's seems like that this will not happen now because bitcoin trends are not the same before.  

In 2018 for the first time, institutional investors could short Bitcoin on regulated platforms. In capital markets, the market cycles are quite marked and respected, In Bitcoin that was not the case.

Don't get disappointed people, but I ain't believe it will rise that much as it did at 2016. Times changed. Still, its crypto and anything can happen. Best of luck to the ones, who is keeping it.

As far as the supply is concerned, when bitcoin halving will gonna happen supply is affected. Miner's reward will going to be half. Thus it's easy to tell that the price of bitcoin will gonna increase like the past years of history. But always say that, I am not sure about that too. There are many predictions that btc halving will not gonna affect btc price at all. But looking at the chart's past history, it will really increase the price  so, let's be positively waiy for the result.

Not really. Drastically maybe in the second last Bitcoin halving but what's happening instead is that the impact around or close to the actual event itself is getting weaker and weaker.

Remember, even the current rally could probably be complete coincidence or driven by events other than what we can see. Just because something correlates doesn't mean it's the cause.

it can still be predicted on charts that can be precisely linked to previous charts, but not with the latest global news that can affect prices, and also still have to face the possibility of sudden manipulation. if indeed price pressures are not the same as history in 2016-2017, then at least we can still expect a steady increase in adoption without having to look at actual prices.

I think we will not have the same price as before yes there are lots of company adaptation for blockchains but since there are lots of competition out there, it will be hard for the price to go that high as before, we will see blockchain prosper as are community realize the importance of it but they will be now exploring for better and cheaper chains , what do you think?

Adoption of BlockChain has increased in large scale with time, and I don't think there is big competition on the same. The market grew with accordance to the usage, at times the same gets manipulated. So we can't attribute the technology adoption for the growth of price. In my view the adoption will contribute to a certain limit on the growth of bitcoin price.

I do not really think that bitcoins will follow the same patter again because trading and understanding bitcoins is actually not that easy. If it was that easy then a lot of peoples might already been have made enormous profits.

Actually, a bull run was been expected by most of the whales at the end of 2019 but it didn't occur so it is never to late and we might expect some bullish trend in this 2020. Starting of a new year might not be that good for the price pump but yet bitcoins have started showing us a bullish trend in the starting month itself so let's expect something big coming in the running year.

history may repeat itself but there is no guarantee that it will happen again. As long as there is willing buyers at the price of the bitcoin then the re is possibility that there will be a rally again will happen again. The price of the bitcoin is still in sideways, there are only 2 possibilities and if the price will go breakdown or it will breakout. If the price breakout and there is a massive volume then expect that the bullish trend will come.

I think we should not expect more similar to what happen in 2016, a lot is already happen and the price don't affect much and there is conjecture for massive drop. we should wait for several weeks or even months for the price movement then we can speculate what will be the price on the halving day.

Quite tough to consider especially when there's no reason behind for such price increase to happen. Besides such huge increase in the time span of 3 months was big however with bitcoin price right now I don't think it would happen the same way as the price of btc right now were farther away than 2016's. We could expect similar but not the same ratio it increased.

Expecting something similar to this can just be a major concept of big whales. We saw bitcoins reaching $8000 and that is what makes us now think that it might even cross.the next target which might be some what between $8500 to $9000.

Big whales have accumulated at $7000 to $7500 so now, they might be waiting for the price to reach the ATH peak in 1 hour graph. Price might dump once again before actually starting the pump so expecting $7000 to $7500 might somewhat be a price to fill our bags again and then wait for the price to pump high.

I think 2020 is very positive for bitcoin cause Bitcoin has been holding its market reputations for previous two years.
Already it has been caught the attention of many large investors within two years and increased its landing platform too.
I guess Bitcoin will surpass its previous ATH in 2020.  :o

Do you feel it now, just look before halving bitcoin rises above $ 8000 since yesterday, it seems to show something that comes from repeating previous history as you said, I'm still sure before bitcoin halving there is still a slight increase in price, maybe above $ 9k or $ 10k

Why not, it could happen again and one reason is because of FOMO. A lot is expecting a new ATH months after halving so maybe a lot will enter before halving to take advantage in lower price that will make the price push up before the event. But don't forget about manipulation, it could happen that can cause panic selling so they can buy more at a cheaper price. So you should always be aware at other possibilities and not just focusing on being optimistic.

I hope the history of the previous year can be repeated again as in 2016, before half of it happened, there will be a sharp rise in market prices and of course the hope of everyone this year many hope that there will be a sharp rise in market prices

Then i am pretty sure also that after that price increase there is a sudden sudden dump will follow as a result of the price correction. Bitcoin halving this year will not make the market to become bullish just look at the previous halving and you will know what i am talking about.

That's the thing I keep thinking about when I consider what impact the halving might have on bitcoin's price--there may have been huge increases in the past, but they weren't exactly sustainable and especially not after the last one.  I guess bitcoin did keep a lot of its gains after the 2016 halving, but it sure as hell went way higher than what it settled at.  I'm not even sure if the halving was responsible for any of that, and I don't know what to think about the upcoming one.

My guess is that the anticipation of the halving will draw a bunch of new speculators into the market, and they'll drive up the price with their buying.  How high bitcoin gets as a result is anyone's guess.  Some people think this is basically a guaranteed way to make a profit, which I think is ludicrous but that's the way it is.  I'm just hoping we don't see a repeat of 2017.  Getting to $20k from $8k wouldn't be quite as nutty as what transpired in 2017, but if bitcoin goes much higher than that, we could be in trouble.

I think the price will increase before the halving but we won't see the exponential rise until next year or later.  It will take time for the FOMO to kick in.