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Title: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: ineededausername on November 18, 2011, 02:55:10 AM 0253 SMF time (GMT) that is.
Your prediction is scored according to (abs(actual high - your predicted high) + abs(actual low - your predicted low)) / (time left)^2 edit: Ties broken by (actual high-your predicted high)^2 + (same thing for low)^2 yes, I pulled these formulae out of my ass. Deal with it. --- My prediction: 2.08 - 2.26 update: Also, 1 BTC bonus for best chart! Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 10:53 Post by: Crypt_Current on November 18, 2011, 02:55:49 AM high was 2.32, low will be 1.5
Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: naypalm on November 18, 2011, 02:57:41 AM high: 2.21
low: 1.84 EDIT: http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/1471/4hrguess.jpg Time 2:53 3:53 4:53 5:53 6:53 High 2.51 2.43 2.25 2.23 2.21 Low 1.99 1.98 2.15 2.01 1.84 1Fc6fH4nmiBbmkvkD7FiXgMPLpzZyDpdhE Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: Jonathan Ryan Owens on November 18, 2011, 03:00:57 AM High 2.28
Low 2.04 Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: bittenbob on November 18, 2011, 03:04:08 AM Low 2.14
High 2.51 Wallet address: 1HhW4UYNfVH6ByYoSGnbsuHUhW1u43yq3P Adjusted to reflect the new 4 hour time window Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: Dan The Man on November 18, 2011, 03:05:10 AM How long can people guess for?
High-2.28 Low-2.19 17CRiJeKA58Ac6GipJNQWt4yE1V3oXrsy Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: ineededausername on November 18, 2011, 03:08:35 AM OK sorry, I overlooked that.
The new formula has been adjusted. You can guess for the next four hours. Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: RyNinDaCleM on November 18, 2011, 03:19:07 AM $2.1499/2.254
1Au1zBioqvUxvKaZKLQZL2kB88spDFqoo Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: adamstgBit on November 18, 2011, 03:41:39 AM low: 2.200001
high 2.356789 Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: bittenbob on November 18, 2011, 03:48:28 AM Here's my chart. No dollar or time values needed. I call it the double fuck.
http://img45.imagevenue.com/loc78/th_586978485_chart_123_78lo.jpg Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: btc_artist on November 18, 2011, 03:52:19 AM $2.11 - $2.33
Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: memvola on November 18, 2011, 03:54:13 AM 2.11 - 2.33
Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: Dan The Man on November 18, 2011, 03:54:45 AM you should write everyone's prediction on the first post so they can't change them.
Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: bittenbob on November 18, 2011, 03:57:03 AM you should write everyone's prediction on the first post so they can't change them. Yup quote them just like this:2.11 - 2.33 $2.11 - $2.33 low: 2.200001 high 2.356789 $2.1499/2.254 1Au1zBioqvUxvKaZKLQZL2kB88spDFqoo How long can people guess for? High-2.40 Low-2.19 17CRiJeKA58Ac6GipJNQWt4yE1V3oXrsy Low 2.14 High 2.51 Wallet address: 1HhW4UYNfVH6ByYoSGnbsuHUhW1u43yq3P Adjusted to reflect the new 4 hour time window High 2.28 Low 2.04 high: 2.21 low: 1.84 EDIT: http://img716.imageshack.us/img716/1471/4hrguess.jpg Time 2:53 3:53 4:53 5:53 6:53 High 2.51 2.43 2.25 2.23 2.21 Low 1.99 1.98 2.15 2.01 1.84 1Fc6fH4nmiBbmkvkD7FiXgMPLpzZyDpdhE high was 2.32, low will be 1.5 Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: btc_artist on November 18, 2011, 04:00:04 AM 2.11 - 2.33 Hey, you copied me! :pTitle: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: Dan The Man on November 18, 2011, 04:02:45 AM I just saw the new time window. I changed my high price to 2.28 to reflect that.
Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: Dan The Man on November 18, 2011, 04:04:20 AM Low 2.81 High 1.77 You forgot to quote yourself Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: bittenbob on November 18, 2011, 04:06:23 AM wouldnt have been appropriate to quote myself because then i could change both quotes. Thanks for quoting me.
Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: btc_artist on November 18, 2011, 04:06:31 AM Can we guess multiple times?
Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: ineededausername on November 18, 2011, 04:08:31 AM Can we guess multiple times? Sure, but don't edit your post. Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: bittenbob on November 18, 2011, 04:10:52 AM 2.15-2.34
2.17-2.45 2.10-2.36 2.12-2.42 2.16-2.39 Someone quote me now lol. Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: adamstgBit on November 18, 2011, 04:16:45 AM Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: bittenbob on November 18, 2011, 04:21:45 AM Not seeing this at all so Im assuiming its your submission for the chart. Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: bittenbob on November 18, 2011, 04:24:39 AM I will add 2.19-2.27 and 2.19-2.25 to my list of predictions lol
Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: adamstgBit on November 18, 2011, 04:26:58 AM OMG REFRESH THE CHART PAGE!!! Not seeing this at all so Im assuiming its your submission for the chart. made you look! hehehe yes it my submission Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: RyNinDaCleM on November 18, 2011, 04:29:11 AM What about a cut off time for submitting? Otherwise you get someone submitting at 6:51, which seems a bit unfair to me!
Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: ineededausername on November 18, 2011, 04:29:37 AM No cutoff, but people submitting close to the end get a disadvantage.
Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: bittenbob on November 18, 2011, 04:32:48 AM No cutoff, but people submitting close to the end get a disadvantage. What disadvantage would that be? Seems to me it is a pretty big advantage since you could tell what the previous highs and lows were. Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: adamstgBit on November 18, 2011, 06:21:18 AM No cutoff, but people submitting close to the end get a disadvantage. What disadvantage would that be? Seems to me it is a pretty big advantage since you could tell what the previous highs and lows were. the formula he pulled out of his ass put them at a disadvantage Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: BTCurious on November 18, 2011, 06:33:10 AM Prediction:
2.19100000 - 2.23650000 I think if there are still ties after your mentioned tie-breaker, the prediction submitted earlier should just win. Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: Jonathan Ryan Owens on November 18, 2011, 06:45:41 AM Who's the winner? I'll pay the prize and INAU can get me back. I think he's asleep.
-Jonathan Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: BTCurious on November 18, 2011, 06:49:42 AM It's not over yet. 10 minutes to go.
/me moves his bidwalls. http://img408.imageshack.us/img408/5507/unledyri.png Guaranteed win. Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: BTCurious on November 18, 2011, 07:16:01 AM Hmmm, as it stands, I believe I win. I predicted the exact high and low, 25 minutes before the end. Because it's 25 minutes, my error is divided by a small number, which would normally make it rather large (lower score = better), but zero divided by a small number is zero.
If this is run again, I suggest people are only allowed to vote up to 2 hours in :D As for who made the best graph, I'll leave that up to ineededausername. 0253 SMF time (GMT) that is. Your prediction is scored according to (abs(actual high - your predicted high) + abs(actual low - your predicted low)) / (time left)^2 edit: Ties broken by (actual high-your predicted high)^2 + (same thing for low)^2 yes, I pulled these formulae out of my ass. Deal with it. update: Also, 1 BTC bonus for best chart! Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: adamstgBit on November 18, 2011, 07:41:55 AM Hmmm, as it stands, I believe I win. I predicted the exact high and low, 25 minutes before the end. Because it's 25 minutes, my error is divided by a small number, which would normally make it rather large (lower score = better), but zero divided by a small number is zero. If this is run again, I suggest people are only allowed to vote up to 2 hours in :D As for who made the best graph, I'll leave that up to ineededausername. y did no one see this coming... ::) Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: Jonathan Ryan Owens on November 18, 2011, 07:56:25 AM Hmmm, as it stands, I believe I win. I predicted the exact high and low, 25 minutes before the end. Because it's 25 minutes, my error is divided by a small number, which would normally make it rather large (lower score = better), but zero divided by a small number is zero. If this is run again, I suggest people are only allowed to vote up to 2 hours in :D As for who made the best graph, I'll leave that up to ineededausername. 0253 SMF time (GMT) that is. Your prediction is scored according to (abs(actual high - your predicted high) + abs(actual low - your predicted low)) / (time left)^2 edit: Ties broken by (actual high-your predicted high)^2 + (same thing for low)^2 yes, I pulled these formulae out of my ass. Deal with it. update: Also, 1 BTC bonus for best chart! I.. I can't figure out his wacky formula. I'll make sure he pays out in the AM. -Jonathan Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: BTCurious on November 18, 2011, 08:01:56 AM I don't foresee any problems, I've interacted with ineededausername before :)
His formula is basically: (your error in high + your error in low) / ((time left)^2) He didn't specify in what units the time left is, but that doesn't matter for the ordering anyway. So yeah, for me that's roughly: (0 + 0) / (25^2) = (0 + 0) / (625) = 0 Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: btc_artist on November 18, 2011, 03:49:20 PM So that means I won, right? j/k :p
Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: bittenbob on November 18, 2011, 10:47:45 PM So INAUN whos the winner?
Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: bittenbob on November 19, 2011, 01:41:51 AM So no one confirming they have been paid the 1 BTC for the prediction or a statement of winner from the charts. Was this a bull offer or what is going on here? Or maybe he is chewing over whether or not to pay the prize to the one who guessed 10 mins before the end of the window. Some sort of a statement from someone would help to close this matter. Not sure why someone would offer this in the first place anyways.
Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: Jonathan Ryan Owens on November 19, 2011, 01:55:04 AM So no one confirming they have been paid the 1 BTC for the prediction or a statement of winner from the charts. Was this a bull offer or what is going on here? Or maybe he is chewing over whether or not to pay the prize to the one who guessed 10 mins before the end of the window. Some sort of a statement from someone would help to close this matter. Not sure why someone would offer this in the first place anyways. INAU hasn't been around all day. I don't know what's up. Two people agree on who the winner is, and I'll pay the prize. Also, votes on the best chart decides the winner. Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: btc_artist on November 19, 2011, 05:44:29 AM Meh, he made offer, but didn't say when he will pay. Cut him some slack and give him a couple days.
Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: BTCurious on November 19, 2011, 10:53:50 AM Inau has a history of organizing contests just for fun. I have no doubt that he will pay. He just wasn't around yesterday. I'm not in a hurry.
Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: Jonathan Ryan Owens on November 19, 2011, 07:06:51 PM I don't foresee any problems, I've interacted with ineededausername before :) His formula is basically: (your error in high + your error in low) / ((time left)^2) He didn't specify in what units the time left is, but that doesn't matter for the ordering anyway. So yeah, for me that's roughly: (0 + 0) / (25^2) = (0 + 0) / (625) = 0 Funds are on their way (bitcoin transaction: ddf8e17d3f99b15382533b2efbd961e3ce633da0221fa8959937e72f97c2c064) Here's my chart. No dollar or time values needed. I call it the double fuck. http://img45.imagevenue.com/loc78/th_586978485_chart_123_78lo.jpg Funds are on their way (bitcoin transaction: 43634e374ee547e5e273a760c2a67dedd050b7059e17ded966d0658b5c5b6053) Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: bittenbob on November 19, 2011, 07:07:45 PM lol nice. I see the coin in my wallet now.
Title: Re: 1 btc to whoever predicts the high/low for the next 4 hrs starting from 2:53 Post by: BTCurious on November 19, 2011, 09:48:54 PM Received :)
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