Bitcoin Forum

Latest weekly update is now live here:

https://www.cryptoadvocate.net/post/bitcoin-weekly-update-01-12-2020

Worth a read, but main takeaway is that spot and margin exchanges are telling different stories which paints a conflicting picture. Until $8,500 is gained on a closing basis, can't rule Bitcoin as out of the woods but as long as $7,700 holds on a closing basis I'm favoring longs into the halving.

I agree. While we can be seeing some positive signs, there can still be no conclusion that can be made on the question if Bitcoin is really out of the bearish woods. Until the $8500 zone is established for good, the power and influence of the bear is still present and anytime the bear can roar and take back the gains in the past few weeks. Right now, the market can be looking for many good reasons for it to move forward and let's hope that new positive developments can be cooking right now ready to be served as soon as they are done.

As if bitcoin is still in a bearish forest up and down there is still no certainty to the safe zone of $8500 but in terms of technical analysis bitcoin movement will be so great in the future because it will draw conclusions backwards.
Bitcoin will continue to continue when there is an update but we will see what is happening right now there is still no movement to the price of $8,300 This is a bit difficult for bitcoin.

a bear market is when price tends to continue going down, so you'd see lower and lower prices. that is what used to happen back in 2018 and it ended in the first couple of months of 2019 and right now we are about an entire year after the end of the bear market!
saying "weekly" update is weird here because you should have said "yearly" update as bitcoin has been in a bull market for the entire 2019 and price went up more than 300% during last year. not to mention that it is currently getting ready for another launch.

No I wouldn't say its over yet, I would say maybe we have gone from bearish to neutral. Why?

Pull up the 2017 charts and look at the daily in April and July 2018, both of those had similar patterns were it broke a previous daily resistance and people assumed a higher high would be made only to have stall a few days later and retrace and eventually go to a new low.

If you don't want to get caught into this pattern wait until the $10300 breaks because it would be the 2nd highest high since we broke $7900. But right now I would remain neutral.

We’ve seen price improvement however we don’t know until when it is. We cannot conclude yet because we’ve seen this movement before in previous months a repeating cycle but hopefully its a different one. We can’t call it a bearish either but these prices are not attracting FOMO’s yet.

The bear market actually ended when bitcoin broke out of the strong resistance zone of $ 7k7. Now we begin with a strong fomo effect as the halving event gets closer and closer. It seems the sharks are gathering a lot of bitcoins to push its price even higher in this great 2020. And it's not just the sharks doing that, you can see the excitement of the crowd and we can expect bitcoin to rise back to $ 15k soon in Q2 of 2020.

This is a tricky situation which can go either ways because we have not seen any sharp dump post this recent pump and at the same time as you have mentioned there are no FOMOs which means that users are smart enough to wait for sometime to analyze the market before jumping into it as they did in the past and end up losing on their capital. We cannot predict anything until halving takes place and we need to be really careful with our investments until halving as there might be more fluctuations in upcoming days.

I think we are really out of the bear market, the price continues to stay at $ 7,700, not too long under it since a few days ago and back up above $ 8000, it looks like the price will not touch below $ 7,000 or $ 6000, maybe this will be good for some time to ahead pick up halving right away

It seems there's no indication that we're going back below $7k, atleast for now. The price has improved a bit and doing well this past few days but i'm still not confident that we got out of bear market already. Not until we have a strong support at $15k or even $10k. The FOMO has stop since we got a decrease when we touched $8k for the first time this month. If only, the price stayed for a longer in $8k, the FOMO will surely continue and would result into increase.

I am still considering doing some short in this situation.

there is still a scenario back at 7550-7530 within the range of this month, BTC has not fully recovered, unless it is strong around 8100 then it can be speculated to rise faster, I prefer to analyze it to remain stable in the same zone, Market confidence for the bearish pattern also started slowly closed.

Bitcoins recent push to $8.1k honestly brings hope to it actually pushing through and stopping going back to below $8k, but it has been only a few days since and confident reactions about it are still on the lows. We may have broken or about to broke the bearish season, but the FOMO effect might actually reverse and bring us back to it so it isn't a guarantee for now, especially with some traders out there spreading possible FUD regarding the halving having zero effect towards market price.

Because the atmosphere is neutral these days because of halving speculations keep spreading but I will not erase the though that we are still in bearish since as of now the one we can see is the price go stable at $8000 which is still good as of now but if we pass at $10k price well maybe by that time we can say that the bearish trend is totally done and we will enter bullish market since provably many people will buy since they will be FOMO for the halving matters.

I wouldn't compare this rally to the "Xi pump." That was a 2-day pump, an obvious short squeeze. This rally has lasted almost a month, with the market consolidating and building support multiple times on the way up. Bulls are looking much stronger this time around.

I agree with David that the bottom is likely in already and we're probably looking at one of these two scenarios: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5140701.msg53551723#msg53551723

Everything's worth a read, depending on your level of worth;) But anyway, for what my 2 cents are worth: interesting to see some technicals stick around to Bitmex and Binance metrics. Bitmex I've never really been a fan of using, especially since a lot of that doesn't actually require any settlement of actual bitcoin (its volumes are still majority on derivatives, right?). Binance okay, but any exchange that has its own token for discounted fees is a bit suspect in volume for me.

And no, Iran might have done something to gold, but I still think Bitcoin's correlation the past week's coincidence.

Probably so, since there isn't a possible pressure for BTC to go down for the next few days. Might provide a few dips every now and then, but in general, BTC would probably provide a stable foundation so stay in the $8k range. Luckily, the market shows a pretty good rise for the past few days, and hasn't really shown any significant push downwards, and the price going down to $7.7k was quite temporary only, and should not be breached within the next few days.

i am not sure if prices bitcoin follow prices gold . because the recent crisis in the middle east between iran and usa have effect a lot in prices of all stock . i hope effect of bear market decrease much and prices stabilyze above 8000 usd this month
 

No one has said that the bear market has ended completely. But little by little has shown positive things with an increase to $ 8500 yesterday.
It is also possible that $ 8,000 is the lowest point to be marked for earlier this year. I also can not say this will happen bullish pattern because there is still a correction in the daily timerframe, it needs valid confirmation.

Highly questionable. As always, technicals make or break an asset's trend. Gold has been trending up nicely for a while now and it happened to break out around the same time the situation in Iran escalated. People love to connect dots between large price movements and events that happened around the same time.

I'm pretty sure that I can find an event that happened in the world and link it to pretty much any increase or decrease in the price of Bitcoin.

What could happen is that institutions might purposely act based on certain news events, but only to steer the price to the direction of the trend it was in already.

Price increases are a good signal for this market and the investors, but we cannot be sure whether the market has been uptrend or not, because prices may collapse at any time and cause This market is panicking again. I just hope that halving will help Bitcoin rise in the near future and that it can stabilize above $ 10,000, then we can believe that the bear market is over.

Kind of dangerous to take sides at these times. One day it seems the bears are gone, the following day it seems the bears are very much awake. It is very hard to play short and long. For me, Bitcoin should hold onto $8,000. That is a stronger support than $7,700.

I think bitcoin market is not ever because always get bad news about bitcoin price suddenly without we can't prediction before, many people always try how to make investor panic with bitcoin assets have to sell with lower price and try other way how to make investor panic moment when buying bitcoin with higher price, just careful with many news about bitcoin and altcoin price.

^^^ I am completely confused on what you are trying to tell. If you are talking about the price you as an investor does not need to panic if you are able to invest when the price was low even if there are many FUD news coming out and even if the market goes down it usually recovers in a few days and i am sure you are watching the trend for a long time and if you are not able to understand the trend then it is better not to trade. :P :P
 

 

The article is not that bad. Comparing the weekly ending charts with Bitmex and Binance. They have one key difference, and that is the value volume in the exchanges, and I think it accounts for how much trading can be done in a specific period like short term trading, probably daily trading. I'm into a bullish sentiment too with this year, knowing that there's the halving. Hopefully, it does also, and I'm on Bitmex and the long side. :D

This is the most important, support is what is needed for bitcoin to rise, and since the halving is coming, people should be bullish months before the halving schedule and it's possible for bitcoin to stay over $10,000 and IMO it could probably hit $15,000.

We know that hype makes everything possible and we all witnessed that last 2017 bull run where btc rose as high as $20,000 and altcoins gone crazy.

I think it could possibly happen if not this year, then the next few years.

Bitcoin trend still on the bear market, and it's not over yet. We still see this will happen again this month, but I guess that we will have to see it will change in the future. We can hope that the price is not down $7700 or lower than that price because if that happens, people will panic, and they will sell instantly. Bitcoin itself has a chance to increase this week if there is massive demand at the market, but let us see it later because we could only predict from the market movements.

We can't call it really "over" just yet because we need to see some sort of bigger movements for bitcoin to call that, yes we had a good increase recently but that doesn't mean that we are out of bear right away, right now it got a bit more stagnant once again and that is really hurting our call for a bull run, that is why I think another increase is required.

Of course, this is a better situation we are in now than just a month ago when bitcoin price was trying to push under 7 thousand dollars but that is kinda what happens when the price tries to go lower and fails so whales get that it won't go down more that easily so instead of pushing even harder and spending even more money they just decide the easy way is to go up and that is what we are living right now with this price.

Just hodl if you aren't sure to short or long it is the nature of the market to be more volatile so it is expected already. We can't seem to know what was the real reason behind of this movement of the market but the recent events of the war between US and Iran I think is just a trap to lure and let people believe that it greatly made a move because of the war but it turns out it's a trap.

And it is the people's choice to panic, we've used to those bad news and it becomes our daily articles to read since a few years ago and yet others still don't get how to overcome it. We have different POV about the bear market being over and others can validate that it has actually ended.

While for others, because we've seen some corrections and that tends to be the bear market staying 'belief'. However, if we classify and identity the market by 2018 and 2019, we can fairly say that it was a good year and the price soared to $13,000.

I think it is even too early to begin to look into the bear run being over. We just got into a new year and in most years in the past, bitcoin hasn't done very well in January. For instance, 2018, 2019 is an instance that we see looking fresh for reference.

What will you say when we break out of the downward channel with force and end up being above $9k or even $10k ? Is it still to early to call the defeat of the bears ?

It's hard to say. One could argue that we were never in a bear market to begin with since the downfall from $14k+ was simply a correction that was imminent due to the fact that the markets go so overheated and such. It was completely unexpected and the sentiment of the market hasn't really changed too much for the worse.

But 2020 is certainly a much more bullish year in general compared to 2019.

Given all the hype around the halving, I think that at the very least, it could become a self fulfilling prophecy. Of course the scarcity of new mined coins will also rise, but the most immediate impact will be a surge in bullishness because of the fact that people expect a bull market to occur.

It is not forever bear remember that. As long as we don't go down at $6k level then it is fine and we will still go for another way up to $8500-$10,000. Since it touched $8k level then indeed a good sign for bullish market. Though it I am also getting profits by having some short trades but I still have my btc so go for the bull!  ;D

On the other hand, I saw the charts from the site. And this week's price will truly possible to go bear thay's what I can see, too base on the technical analysis.

I will only believe it when I see 12k, and it will need to hold this price for some weeks, not just touch it.

@cryptoadvocate bitcoin prices have crossed $8500 on preev, and it seems that the bulls are slowly and steadily coming back to the crypto market and this time I sincerely hope they stay for a long time. It’s pertinent to note that in my personal opinion I feel that bitcoin prices will reach $10k by the end of February what do you’ll think of my prediction?.

Extra Information: https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/01/14/bitcoin-smashes-resistance-next-bullish-levels/

I think it's too soon if we say the bear market is over. although over the past two weeks the price of bitcoin tends to increase, it doesn't mean the bear market has ended. because the increase in bitcoin is not too big and also several times bitcoin also decreases and then rises again. and in my opinion bitcoin will dump again before halving. so I think right now we are still in the bear market.