Bitcoin Forum

Similar to Altcoin dominance looking bullish , the crypto market total capitalization is close to it's two year long resistance downtrend line, with a 50 & 100 Week MA bull-cross anticipated in a week or two, as well as on a Green 3 TD Sequential. I'm skeptical this can be broken this week, but if there is continuing rising volume , it's becomes trade worthy (2.1 reward/risk).

A close above the resistance trend-line, with the Green 3 above the Green 2 would be a case for a move to the previous swing high around $332B. Breaking below $210B would likely lead to a fall to the recently created support trend-line at $200B. CMF is positive and rising, MACD is bull-crossing this week, waiting for RSI to break above resistance level around 55 and into bullish territory >60.

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With altcoin dominance closing back above the rising 200 Week MA last week, confirming Bitcoin's long-term weakness in market dominance, "ALT.D" ( 1-BTC .D+99) has again held the 30% support a second time and is looking for a breakout above 33.75% with a target to 40%.

This would additionally be a TD Sequential trade on the Weekly chart with a Green 2 going above a Green 1, with oscillators ( RSI , CMF and MACD ) pointing to further upside. There will likely be some resistance and profit taking around the 50 Week MA around 35%, half way to the target, but I don't expect it to hold for long if volume continues to rise. The momentum would likely be too strong preceeding the confirmed trend change.

Reward/risk: 2.1
Entry: 33.76% - TD buy signal and and new swing high since July 2019
Target: 40.7% - Previous support level as resistance and 100 Week MA confluence
Stop Loss: 30.50% - Breakdown below the open of the 1 candle, 21 Week MA and into support range = bearish

To me, this is a perfect trade.

References:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3TzVgGyBFs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wBg1lBKtyg

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Thank you for the post
i saw a good chart that shows the dominance of Bitcoin and the Dominance of alts
and it really looks like Bitcoin is going to go lower and alts are going to go higher by analysis
i really hope that its right since i am almost all in ALTS

Honestly, there should be no surprises that the alt market is this bullish.

Alts have been undervalued against BTC for a while now given the fact that even during the recovery, BTC rallied while alts stayed relatively the same level throughout.

Expect significant pumps coming from major altcoins when it comes to times where BTC is stable and isn't taking liquidity away from the alts markets. Bitcoin dominance could continue to slip for a while for sure.

Well I wanted to see if we can really break the MACD this week and stay bullish territory >60.

This is going to be critical as bitcoin is still on the bullish trend and it's effect trickling on the Altcoin market for the firs time. It might be tricky, but if we can pass it this week, it is a healthy sign that altcoin market is back.

Just noticed the CMF is also at the same "critical levels", a move above 0.15 would result in the same buying pressure as in 2017 & 2018 periods. This is why I also wouldn't be surprised to also see altcoin dominance rejected at current levels rather than breakout, hence waiting for a breakout before longing any more alts. While probability points to further upside, if sellers get dominance rejected where it is now, it would be result in rejection from the neutral/bullish rsi and critical cmf levels, as well as look like a macd fakeout. This would also be very reminiscent of June/July 2016, where there was nice bounce, followed by another 6 months of consolidation, so wouldn't be out the ordinary either.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/3px0smv2/

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Update to above chart, just noticed altcoin dominance has confirmed a golden cross  8)

For now, it seems the market is moving up and down simultaneously. Both Bitcoin and altcoins are rising and then both of them are also falling at the same time in retracement. Right now, in fact, Bitcoin and the major altcoins are all in red at the same time. Notwithstanding, I guess the overall market condition is geared toward a bullish season. But this is not going to be an exclusive altcoin bull run. Bitcoin is on the lead.

There's only selected altcoin who were not dead yet who rising in contrast with bitcoin's increase, but we'll have to be more careful by now. The situations was still not safe to buy while it's quicker to decline. It's always certain to study the chart, instead of relying on actual signals because crypto market will change randomly at any random behavior.

Yeah, the market is falling red at the same time and I can say that all altcoins will also follow in the footsteps of bitcoin in its movements, see after there is a little pumping altcoin also move what is possible now it can only be prediction of bitcoin?
And bitcoin can't last long at $9000, maybe it's just a correction?

If this charts happens, its great but at the same time remember there has been a million right charts and a million wrong ones as well. If you are good enough, you can pick the perfect indicator for at the same time, if not you can literally find another example of what has happened before and what it looks now, compare them.

Just because one chart says something doesn't mean it will happen, doesn't mean its wrong neither, its just one way of looking at a thing that has a million ways to look at, if you are an expert chart reader, you can literally find a chart right now that is saying bitcoin will go down as well as go up. Hopefully, all the bull ones happens to be correct and all the bear ones happen to be wrong in the future because altcoins have been in downfall for way too long.

What happened was initially a correction for me. But it went a little too deep that it lost a strong support somewhere $8,500. I guess there is a possibility that this will move down more. Let's wait and see where Bitcoin goes next. And the altcoins, too. They are like one body right now.

Harsh rejection on BTC.D 4hr chart* from re-testing the legacy support trend-line, close to the 200 Week MA, and following a 9 sell signal:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/1I02uODr/

For reference sake this is the ascending wedge I am looking at on BTC.D. Note the 200 Week MA that is sloping downwards and acting as resistance:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/YN9FAi58/

*4hr ALT.D chart doesn't exist

Sorry I don't believe in charts maybe that's why I'm not good at trading, I don't see any improvement on altcoin movement and I think changes can only hit altcoins if bitcoin grows higher in value, altcoins are too weak to do this on their own

I always say, the wonderful thing about these trading charts is you have at worst 50/50 chance, even if you don't know what you're doing, you could still end up saying all the right things. Take 2017 as the best example, when everyone literally thought they had found the secret to trading. Easy of course when everything went up.

But I don't think that's the point of this thread... Keep as informed as possible, so thank you OP:)

Charts are just guides. They are not crystal balls that would really tell you what is going to happen with the price the next hour or day. Charts suggest different possibilities. Some may be true and some are not.

I agree with you that Bitcoin will have to create a really huge rally first before the altcoins will follow suit.

Bitcoin will continue to dominate markets, in large part because of it's relatively widespread acceptance when compared to even the most well-known of alt-coins. What's safe is to indeed sell 80-90 percent or more of your altcoins to Bitcoin and wait until 2021. Bitcoin should definitely have it's second rally after the halving in May. Altcoins will continue to bleed. In this year and 2021 most altcoins will be dead. Future of each coin is rely on the scope and type project behind it.

I don't think the rally would have to be as high as you think it needs to be. As people start to profit off of their Bitcoin investment, they'll be looking to alts for other opportunities to make a little bit of profit. I think once Bitcoin gets over $10k and people start taking profit from that, they'll start investing in some of the alts and that will help the altcoin market out tremendously. It seems like all signs are pointing to a coming altcoin rally.

I'm curious if this is gonna continue into wide market with more and more of new products coming into or if people will finally make up their minds and become BTC // ETH // XRP fans and stick to the big names and start some kind of real competition for BTC. First option would mean we are still very young market that is looking for quick gains and the second options says crypto is growing mature and serious. In first case even if we get a strong altcoin dominance it will be very seasonal and is gonna pull back strongly to BTC in some time. If the money flow centralizes among the big names and spreads quite evenly with some dominant force (probly btc to stay) then it could go on like that for quite some time even with BTC potentially losing it's #1 spot.

Comment to the Altcoin Dominance chart:


For reference sake, this would take dominance close to the 50 Week MA anticipated resistance around 35% (and falling):

https://www.tradingview.com/x/iGAvMhjT/

Recent Bitcoin TA below is also providing nice confluence for the overall cyrpto market bullish sentiment:


Hence total crypto market cap breaking above the 200 Day MA and now re-testing strong resistance level (and long-term downtrend resistance):

https://www.tradingview.com/x/aNHn2p6y/

Patience is a virtue  :)

https://www.tradingview.com/x/AK3EQYOm/

Looking at the VPVR (Volume Profile Volume Range) on BTC.D, we are currently at the Point of Control at the lower end of the dense volume range from the April 2019 rally:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/rxKUOXNh/

We are below the logarithmic support trendline from 2018 & 2019 as well as the 200 Week MA and now appear to be finding resistance from the VPVR POC. That's 3x bearish factors. On a side note, notice how the 200 Week MA has been moving downwards (bearish) and now crossed below the mid-level line of the bear channel. It goes without saying, that a re-test of higher levels would very likely be rejected by this strong resistance area (68.2-68.4%). Likewise, the altcoin dominance support is therefore around 31.6-31.8%.

On a smaller time-frame, the 4hr, the descending triangle is still looking bearish while looking to confirm it's third touchpoint ont he resistance downtrend:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/ti4wWX22/

As referenced above, the measured move is to 65.5% dominance (-2.23%), although notably the dominance has been shifting recently due to CMC market cap changes/updates.

As expected, dominance is getting rejected at this "tri-point" (confluence) of resistance; VPVR PoC, logirthimic support turned resistance and again the 200 Week MA. Very bearish.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/punGgwhV/

4hr descending triangle previously referenced has been invalidated, however a new bearish channel is forming (within the longer-term bearish channel). Still bearish:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/FI0p1oCu/

OP charts updated with latest screenshots. Crypto market is signalling the long trade, as referenced in description, am awaiting for a Weekly close.
Altcoin dominance puling back but finding support from the 200 Week MA, no long trade signal yet.

Quick update to the following chart (that's currently within the trigger zone for a long position based on original publication):


Due to CMC recalculations the "goalpost" has been moved to $252B, see the green line blow:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/iePDP1Bn/

Regardless of this, crypto market cap is now above key resistance level from it's long-term descending triangle breakdown support (that turned resistance):

https://www.tradingview.com/x/CtOnLmjZ/

Hence waiting for a Weekly close above this resistance level (and previous recent high of $252B) before entering into any further positions.
On a Daily scale, the market looks like it's trying to turn this resistance into support which is a bullish sign.

OP updated with screenshots from the Weekly close.

Altcoin dominance trade cancelled as Green 3 failed to move above the Green 2 for the ideal sequential trade (*). Now we are on a Green 4, which while is still bullish, isn't the perfect TD trade that I was looking to execute (as this could end up being 1-4 candle correction, as opposed to a 1-9 sequential count). Will now look to target the 200 Week MA support levels, if the mid-level of the bull channel holds as support. Note; I'm still in longs from Sept/Oct 2019 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5190085.0), but not intending to open any new altcoin trades on a breakout above previous highs, based on the Weekly chart at least (the Daily/4hr is very different story, see below).

(*) On the chart below it shows dominance making a new yearly high (33.76%), however, the actual BTC.D dominance chart failed to make new yearly lows (now at 66.07% due to cmc recalculations). ::)
Reminder: Always check the live charts before executing any trades. Do not follow trade me, no refunds.


In contrast, this trade was activated. For reference, the key difference here is entering the market with USD diversified into BTC and Altcoins (market weighted) on this breakout, instead of selling more BTC for altcoins such as the above trade. While there is still a high probablity of a pull-back (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5221059.msg53762311#msg53762311), there is also a high probability of further upside before this pullback that could lead to much higher highs than the anticipated lows.
Therefore, on a reward/risk basis of 2:1 and given the Weekly MA support nearby, trades were activated. I now believe the crypto market to of broken out of it's 2 year-long downtrend.


For reference/transparency sake, the order of the charts were changed, given that one trade is now active (relevant), one trade has been cancelled (irrelevant).

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BTC.D on a Daily time-frame

https://www.tradingview.com/x/LZVqWXqj/

• Still within bearish channel, as a bear flag, with around a -3% measured move.
• TD sequential bearish Red 3 (moving below Red 2 would active a short trade)
• RSI bearish at 32, close to oversold conditions <30.
• CMF neutral, declining slightly so slightly bearish
• MACD bear-crossing today, confirmation on close:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/hrmqzsSu/

Despite backing out of this long on a Weekly scale (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5219614.msg53762404#msg53762404) (would prefer to wait for re-test of the 200 Week MA support), the Daily/4hr is playing out very bearishly right now after breaking down from the long-term and short-term bearish channels:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/0hdkXmDY/

I still think a lot of this depends on the Weekly, but so far so good.

I normally don't do mid-week updates due to the "noise", but as I was playing the breakout on the Daily chart (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5219614.msg53762404#msg53762404) (after cancelling the long on the Weekly chart for altcoin dominance), dominance has now reached the 50 Week MA (purple line) on a Green 4 TD sequential. This is why I backed out of this Weekly trade, I'm not a fan of Green 4's at MA resistance.

For those trading shorter time-frames, it's a good time to tighten stop losses or take profits. As referenced previously, I expect some resistance at this level, but for it to ultimately be broken, whether that means coming back down to the 200 Week MA over the coming weeks to find support or not. I've taken some satoshi profits, but otherwise leaving long positions from October 2019 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5190085.0) from 30.5% altcoin dominance (1.5% under the 200 Week MA now) on break even stop losses as macro trades, as opposed to swing trades.

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In contrast, this is looking great to me as the market is above all it's long-term MAs, stop losses now break even  8)

Latest TA based on Daily time-frame:

Don't Underestimate the TD Sequential 9 & 50 Week MA

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/09/10/m9QSw.png (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/TcwBSFKd-BTC-D-Don-t-Undersestimate-the-TD-Sequential-9-50-Week-MA/)

As can be seen on the Daily chart using the TI Indicator, we are currently at the 50 Week MA on a Sequential 9. While the long-term 200 Week MA is sloping downwards (has a bearish posture), the 50 Week MA is rising (has a bullish posture). It's also clear from previous TD 9's, whether buy or sell signals, have been very reliable in calling short-term tops and bottoms. The RSI is also considerably oversold.

I'm still bearish on Bitcoin dominance long-term, but remaining neutral as dominance is likely to find short-term support from current levels. It'd be reasonable to believe that dominance will retest the bear flag breakdown level, VPVR resistance as well as 21 Day MA around 66%, or even as high as the 200 Day MA at 69% that is now started to slope downwards confirming long-term bearish pressure.

TI Indicator: https://tonevays.com/indicator

A zoomed out view of the Weekly chart for reference sake. In my opinion, based on the logarithmic long-term trend-lines, we broke out of the bullish channels weeks ago. On a linear scale, we are doing so this week apparently.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/TDKCUsUa

Disclosure: This is a C&P post due to server being down earlier.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3TzVgGyBFs
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7wBg1lBKtyg

References added to OP.

While we didn't find the bounce from the TD 9, and therefore bounced later than expected, Bitcoin dominance is now back above the 50 Week MA.


My previous outlook remains the same regarding re-test targets. BTC dominance is currently testing the 66% level - the bear flag breakdown level and VPVR resistance, as previously anticipated:


https://talkimg.com/images/2023/09/10/m9UsP.png (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTC.D/TcwBSFKd-BTC-D-Don-t-Underestimate-the-TD-Sequential-9-50-Week-MA/)

If dominance re-tests the downwards sloping 200 Day MA, following the death cross (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5219614.msg53679918#msg53679918) that occurred, this would be a good opportunity for again longing altcoins based on the risk reward of 50 & 200 Day MA altcoin dominance "golden crosses".

Zooming into the chart, we have wicked upto the previous breakdown level. The vpvr does show a considerable gap in volume, therefore room to move upwards if the current resistance level can be broken. Note the Weekly would also need to close above the 50 Week to confirm a bullish bounce for Bitcoin dominance. Expect strong resistance around 67.5% point of control:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/0NC6a19e/

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Regarding the original OP TA, the current pullback looks like another opportunity to enter to good risk reward trade, rather than getting stopped out for break even, Even if lower levels are to be expected:

On the Daily time-frame, looking at Altcoin dominance again, we are finding support from the previous bull flag resistance level as well as 50 Day MA:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/cOx5ulIa/

If this level doesn't hold, it'd likely take dominane back down to the VPVR point of control at 32%.

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Note that the 200 Week MA (sloping upwards ie bullish) is also currently at 32.62% that could also likely act as support:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/9SACVHM2/

The TI Sequential on the Weekly, while remaining on a bullish 7 (out of 9 count), is also on an "aggressive 13" buy signal, but not all too convinced how relevant this is to be honest.

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Additionally, a very very close up view of Bitcoin dominance in comparison to BTC price based on Today's movements. Note how price lows came at dominance highs:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/yDHuZ12F/

If Bitcoin bounces from this strong support level, which is very likely imo, Bitcoin dominance will fall lower based on Today's correlation.