Bitcoin Forum

I recorded a video with all the reasons why bitcoin may go 50% this year for sure : https://3speak.online/watch?v=clixmoney/pexambat (https://3speak.online/watch?v=clixmoney/pexambat)

Those reasons are really powerful and I think that even more than 50% maybe possible this year already and maybe even after a few months.

I'm not an investment advisor, but I just shared my honest opinion.

Halving 2016: bitcoin went up >400% in 12 months
Halving 2012: bitcoin went up 13000% in 6 months

So it's easy to predict bitcoin will go up.

There is nothing to write about it or speak about it. Everyone knows Bitcoin will pump before halving. If history repeats itself It might break and create a new all time high either this year or next year.

That's a possibility if Bitcoin would do the same thing this year 2020 I would like to be optimistic in every year we had but surely there are still panic that has progressed because of so much FUD sometimes and people that are very affected by it was the weak once, I'd say it is OK to be optimistic than being paranoid all the time when the price drop to a very low level if that happens I will just think that it is a great opportunity to buy again, and regarding the prediction you had I think it can be a possibility.

Great that you are positive in your prediction of Bitcoin. But this kind of opinion is not new. There are so many honest opinions in crypto space. The day won't end without me reading tweets with links to their articles entitled *insert number* reasons why Bitcoin will reach *insert amount* in 2020. Even online crypto publications are getting fond of publishing similar articles. And the so-called crypto analysts won't allow themselves to be left behind; they also have their own predictions, often exaggerated.

Right you are! That's how a deflationary currency/asset should work. After each halving, bitcoin's block reward decreases by half while the effort remains same. So the price is destined to go up. Just imagine the sitiation below,

Earlier you used to produce 5 loaf of breads by spending 1 dollar to sell it for 5 dollars which essentially means that each bread costs 1 dollar at market. Now due to technical limitations, you can only produce 2.5 loaf of breads by spending 1 dollar. But you need to maintain the profitability so the price of each bread automatically goes up to 2 dollars. It's the same concept!

Bread goes stale after some days, most of the bread demand needs to be fresh baked. Bitcoin doesn't lose value overtime, produced coins can be resold indefinitely. The market is the source of most bitcoins, 18 out of 21 millions are already made, new coins are a minuscule part of the equation, and thanks to halvings they make for less and less which also tends to stabilize the price.

The next 3 million will take a hundred years, and the largest part of those will be minted in the next few years. Indeed bitcoin production quickly loses its weight. Rather than bread bitcoins is like Deloreans (or some other limited production good), most where made in the early 80ies but no one is making them anymore. Take a look at the prices of these and you will notice a curious pattern repeating...

Most people buying bitcoin are going to get them from the market, not fresh, and this number will approach 100% with time in an identical logarithmic pattern.

There are assets like oil where production still weights more, but you have to take a look at other things that are not being made anymore. If we follow OP's reference, the "increase", should be less than 400%. If the first was 13000%, the second was 400%, then the next could be... 50%? Sounds about right.

Seems like history repeats itself.
But still lot of people now are claiming that huge price rally will happen after this 2020 Bitcoin block halving.
So, we still have the time to accumulate more Bitcoins.
As we compare on previous Bitcoin block halvings, the price of Bitcoin starting to climb months before the halving and for me, we are doing it.
But for me, I'm not expecting a new all-time-high will come before this 2020 Bitcoin Block halving, which is expected to come around month of April - May 2020.

50% is an understatement to the appreciation in value that bitcoin could face within the next couple of months after the halving. For the past 2 events of halving that we have witnessed, the day of the event itself did not bring any surprising things on the table, but just after everything was done for did the traders revved up for something promising. There's no doubt that after the halving we'll see something remarkable in terms of price action, and the real question is by how much will it go up.

50% is simply too tiny for bitcoin rise specially in a year when we have halving in it. you are basically saying that bitcoin is going to reach $14200 by the end of the year. that is impossible because by the time it breaks $10k level price will most probably shoot up to $15k and by the time halving is close we can see at least another 50% rise which could easily bring it to $20k which is the previous ATH.

I agree that the price will increase, but the question Is: for what value? In the past it was easier to have a big pump. any news that was good was a reason for people to buy a lot and the price to increase a lot, but today things are a little different. an example Is the current scenario, there was a big pump in the price, but when the price reached  $9400 it is not managing to exceed 9500 $. The two times he tried to exceed $9500 the price dropped a lot. Then there is 13000 $ that will be another big obstacle, I will be optimistic only if I see the price above  $13000 and stable for a long time, if that happens then I will be confident that we will see very high prices

If we will see huge recession in next months because of corona virus there will be no pre halving pump. We will go to test bottom again. Next two weeks are critical so we can see if virus will spread over Europe and America.

exactly basic pattern to expect the Pumping of Bitcoin and the whole market as well.i dont know what is the reason why so many post now coming up about predicting the growth of Bitcoin(and some altcoins also) while the truth is each halving the Market is always Bull running so whats new?

lol we can expect more than 100% after the Halving so what is a little bit recent there?last 2017 the value comes a little to 20,000$ so now since Bitcoin prices still at $9,000 level expecting 100% would be $18,000 only so little if we passed the 20,000$ in that last halving.

It was indeed so, but in 2012 the reward decreased by 25 BTC, and in 2016 by 12.5 BTC + it got very loud about Bitcoin in the mainstream media. At the moment, the reward will only decrease by 6.25 BTC and everyone knows how dangerous a cryptocurrency investment can be. Growth is very possible, but I'm not sure if ATH will be achieved. I think that at the moment more depends on adoption itself, so I would not be so sure about anything ;)

Well that's what BTC do when halving happens, I believe there will be a big change once after this. There are lot of FUDs going across and it's really confusing for whom to believe, sometimes even big analyst go wrong well that's how crypto is all about. In the last two halving BTC showed a great exposure, and hopefully I believe it will do the same without any doubt.

In my opinion, the price interacts inversely with hopes, many did not expect many highs in all the previous divisions and therefore the price interacted positively with them. Now everyone wants the price to rise thus store more Bitcoin, and then a collapse will occur with any negative news or any drop in price.

Therefore, do not create many positive hopes, especially until the end of this year.

Yeah, and there were major crashes after each one of those bull runs.  Granted, bitcoin is waaay higher than it was back in 2012 and 2016, but if it starts going nuts like it did with those halvings it could end in disaster.  That's what worries me.

And as I write this, bitcoin is at $9675--that's pretty incredible.  I always wonder whether these quick gains can be sustained or not, so we'll see if this level sticks.  And I'd love it if bitcoin went to $20k again this year, but I just don't want it to get there that quickly.

The optimism you're seeing is a very recent development. Check the Fear & Greed Index: (https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/) last week was the first time since early November 2019 that the market registered "greed." Now it's even back to "neutral" again.

It was only a couple weeks ago that people were saying "the halving is priced in" or "the stock to flow model is dead." Just a few days ago, Peter Brandt was predicting a bearish head-and-shoulders top. (https://twitter.com/PeterLBrandt/status/1224118857771577345) I would actually say the prevailing sentiment is pessimistic and skeptical, not greedy.

I would also say we're climbing the wall of worry. (https://www.investopedia.com/terms/w/wallofworry.asp)

Exactly! These trend will continue for maybe 2 or more block halvings in the future including in this year. Though the percentage may gradually decrease. If we could remember, Bitcoin went up and down to a roller coaster ride before hitting those big numbers. So, most probably in this case, we are seeing a good Bitcoin comeback price these days while closely approaching to the halving event, which I think Bitcoin will surpass the 50% OP's prediction.

Your opinion is not the only one actually people are expecting the price to another all time high maybe not this year, but it will eventually happen so far we are experiencing a bull run, we are already up 20% up,  if this continue the 50% is attainable it should be over 50%, 100% is more realistic.

Halving really is one of the reasons why the Bitcoin Skyrocketed last 2017. It had a huge impact on the Bitcoin's price indeed. Because of that, I'm nearly convinced that this year might be the next and the biggest bull run in the history of Bitcoin. Because there is a high chance that it will goes up like what happened before. (the previous event of first and second halving)

As we can see, in the present the Bitcoin's price is very optimistic. Seeing greens each day gives me the chills I've ever waited. Let's just see what will happen soon. And let's ready our seat belts, as well! We might not be sure, but I know how powerful the word "hope" is. All are unpredictable in the crypto space.

Well yes of course there will continue to be major crashes, that is a given. Those will always occur after major run ups, which will also continue to occur. There is nothing to fear, its just part of the normal market cycle. You should absolutely expect a strong correction at some point this year on the way to $20k, but $20k is where the real meat of the bull market STARTS, not stops. That's just last market cycle's high, so don't be worried at all about a major crash at $20k. Just plan for a major crash at $60k or $80k or $100k or whatever in the next couple of years. $20k is a stepping stone at this point. I would say $20k will happen either late this year or early next year, and not too long after that the price will likely be several times $20k, that is when you should expect a major crash.

Isn't a smaller percentage of increase more realistic than the larger one?  But who knows, we might not see a 50% increase in the current price of Bitcoin this year, if that happens then it is not realistic any more.  The smaller increment is better than the larger one when we talk about reality. 

Back to the prediction of OP, I believe it is quite conservative, playing on the safer side because we all know, at the current sentiment and situation of the Bitcoin market, this is highly attainable.

I understand that people think because the last ones created an increase, this one will create an increase as well but people are forgetting the fact that bitcoin is not some small thing like it used to be. In 2012 it was basically unknown and we were probably less than 10% of the number of users compared to today, in 2016 it was literally getting some attention and that resulted with us going to 20k eventually.

However in 2020, we are already known as much as we can, everyone has heard of it and people either like it or not, it is all decided, I doubt there is many people left who have never heard of bitcoin before. Plus going from 100 to 200 is not the same as going from 10k to 20k neither. So, I do think price ma go up but do not hope for it to be stupidly high like it used to do.

Same here, I couldn't agree more.
Everybody have been so hyped about this price increase forgetting that cryptocurrency market may not be that predictable.
I'm not trying to be negative about the upcoming halving, but I think Bitcoin investors should not be so relaxed about the upcoming price increase without been ready of the opposite. Let's hope for the best while been prepared for the worst to come.

The fact is that today the price of Bitcoin can really increase due to the genuine interest of users in cryptocurrency and its relevance in society, compared to 2016 and 2017.  The fact is that in past years, cryptocurrency was popular only because of statements about the opportunities to earn fast big money.  But almost no one mentioned the real opportunities and big risks, and therefore many cryptocurrency users began to invest their money, and then lost their money.  This is exactly what has been happening on the cryptocurrency market so far.  To date, I think the situation has changed and cryptocurrency users have become smarter.

If this would be true, a lot of people or investors would store Bitcoin and will hold till the halving. Since, the idea about halving came up, people become more aware about the halving and have eagerly stored Bitcoin.

This could be true because, the present events indicated a continuous increase in the value of Bitcoin even, when the halving is still far, its price have already reached $9,800 that is a great increase when compared to last year's struggle in $8,000. Now, the price of Bitcoin still maintains the price above $9,700, I believe it could hit $10,000 in the coming weeks.

There are people who are now starting to accumulate bitcoin because of the halving, their expectation makes ignorant person because they expecting infeasible outcome. Bitcoin can grow 50% and more as long as the uptrend will not snap. Right now I have bitcoin in my portfolio, I buy bitcoin not because of halving; it is because the price recently breakout.

50% up or what? i also think bitcoin will grow but not so much, maybe more after halving.

because of halving, the price of Bitcoin tends to be uptrend,
but we also have to a good strategy, you have to be have stop losin and don't get involved with FOMO, it's risky