Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin will not hit the $10,000 mark this year :( ???

Every day we hear of hacker hacking in to accounts... what going on with this world  and WHY cant we catch this suckers ???

If this keep on happening no one will believe in BTC, we need the regular JOE's to have confidence and invest :(

it's only worth BTC0.00000001 mon

https://encrypted-tbn0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTRHIuND6NCDphkQlpftSAifOqyspuERgDdTh_h7TlxIPdmcXG5SA

Stranger things have happened. $10,000 this year would be rather strange, though. If it wants to hit that level this year then I'm not going to try and stop it.

Quoted! Let's see what happens!

What Bitcoin industry needs are people that don't want to get rich fast! As I saw there are a lot of people who believe in shady websites, if only that websites wont vanish and just earn their way to the top than 10.000$ will be a piece of cake!

At the moment almost every site that made a few thousand dollars got hacked! Isn't that strange? I mean it's very simple to keep your BTC protected!

There is no time for two growth spurts within the next 9 months. Therefore, it will only get one shot at $10,000 this year.

I place my hopes in your hodling.

Ever wondered if there is foul play in sites getting hacked? They are Bitcoins after all and untraceable if sent off...

Yeah it sucks that hackers, who could be showing the weaknesses of the current banking system are instead hacking Bitcoin.

I mean talk about short sighted.  You're stopping BTC from increasing in value, which negates your own purposes.

Smart thinking you guys!

Why don't you focus on showing the world how unstable and fragile the current banking system is instead?   Don't you realize your coins will go up in value much faster that way?

Think!

-B-

i am pretty sure they also use or used bitcoins to wash their banking system hack loot so its both ways...

I believe that can happen, when we hear:

"Wall St. has started to pump BTC" :)

Besides joking. It can happen in the next 4-7 years. Depends on how people will react after bad news media serves us each day.

Given all the recent bad news, I think it's more likely that another exchange goes down this year than BTC hitting $10K.

I didn't expect bitcoin to hit $1200 last year, but it did. So I'm just gonna shut up and wait and see.
There is a lot of development going on in the background.. how that will affect the price I have no idea, but this beast is far from dead yet.

I hope bitcoin doesn't hit anywhere near US$10k this year.  Not because I don't enjoy watching my stash appreciate in value, it's just that having bitcoin double in value every couple of months makes it look like a grand pump and dump scheme to most sane people.

Probably not. But who cares?

If Bitcoin ever hits $10k, then it will probably hit $20k or 40k or more. Because at $10k it will have a 100 billion dollar market cap and it will enter a new stage for what it can be utilized for.

However, it might take a year or three before its $10k. So what?

The price isn't what's important...

Bitcoin is constantly growing despite the FUD; the funny thing is that the recent FUD affected the long term holders a lot more than the new adoption...

The holders who owned more than 1,000 XBT were selling while new investors were buying... The distribution of wealth shifted by 3% in the last month. The greatest area of growth was in the wallets containing amounts between 1-5, 5-10, 10-25, and 50-100. The wallets containing 100-500, and 500-1000 grew very slightly, and the wallets containing greater than 1,000 decreased dramatically.

Basically, if it weren't for some of the large players getting shaky hands, the price would have reflected a period of heavy growth.

Bitcoin will not go to new highs this year.  This is a year for bitcoin to strengthen itself in other ways that don't necessarily have anything to do with worth.

Right, no time for that, could never happen. Except last year.

I hate to be "that guy" but this is probably people holding large quantities, splitting up their coins into wallets of 5, 10, 20, 100.  Thats the first thing one with a brain does, when one hears that coins are being hacked/stolen.

-B-

The safest place is offline cold storage. The more accounts you have the more complicated it becomes to keep track of the keys. The risk isn't worth it unless you need to hide your wealth...

I know that's likely what MtGox did recently, but the only benefit to doing this is to obfuscate your known addresses and launder the coins through a tumbler service, avoiding legal confiscation at risk of potentially indefinite detention. (refusing to provide keys will put you in contempt until you comply; potentially for life.)

I think trading in the most secure method of storing (the equivalent buying power) of hundreds of thousands/millions of dollars for a complicated/less secure method of storage is unlikely without an alternate motive...

To be honest, I'd be okay if 1 BTC's price would stable at $1k. Forever.

Feb 2013 (2012, 2011...) no one would've thought it would've hit $50, let alone $100, $266, or $1200. 

The one thing you can be certain of is that the price of bitcoin in 9 months is completely uncertain.

:-)

Did you really expect it to rise forever? At 10k per BTC you would already have exceeded the protocol limitations with the 1MB block size. Transactional demand would need to be immense to support a market cap of 210 billion USD. It's amazing what people are expecting out of something that is still in beta. Also alternative blockchain's would take more and more market share away from bitcoin, we've seen this occur with every price spike. Spring 2013 brought upon litecoin, October-December brought upon a horde of altcoins. Bitcoin has already had close to 10% of its market cap drained via altcoins. This is about $60 on current prices.

Bitcoin's price is overvalued based on cost per transaction when counting miner subsidies.

https://blockchain.info/charts/cost-per-transaction

This is way too high $40 +

Miner's will consistently feed bitcoin's to the market from these obscene profits. The system is paying $40 per transaction at the moment to miner's and for what exactly? Demand as gauged via daily transactions has not grown as fast. We will probably continue trending down ever so slowly..

The 1MB block size isn't a hard limit; it's easily adjustable and the block size will be set wherever we need it. The transaction cost will be modified as well.

I don't think the alts are taking much away from Bitcoin. Just because those people aren't holding Bitcoin doesn't mean they subtract value from Bitcoin. If anything, they diversify the marketplace and inspire some people who might otherwise have believed that it was too late to get in on crypto currency. Also consider the scrypt mining aspect, it's more inviting and that's an understatement.

I think you misunderstood what I am saying.

The transaction cost I'm talking about is the blockreward miners are currently receiving. You know, the 3600 bitcoin's created on a daily basis that is being allocated to a few hands? This is a cost. That blockchain link shows total miner revenue(which came at the expense of someone) divided by transactions.

The entire bid book of bitstamp is $12million dollars. At current price of $600~, there is $2.2million dollar worth of bitcoin's created daily. Every week you are creating bitstamp's entire active bid side.

The current profit margin for the top tier miners is obscene, they have huge incentive to realize this gain. Miner's tend to hoard when their profits are low, and sell when they are high. They have been feeding this market since November 2013. Where do you think the ASK side is coming from? It's miners. Because mining is so concentrated, new bitcoin's are ending up in fewer and fewer hands. This leads to persistent volatility as supply is withheld when prices are low, and increased when prices are high. This makes settlement in bitcoin impossible as you cannot perform economic calculation. Hedging this is too costly since a small % of people can influence prices immensely in an illiquid market. I hope this makes it more clear to you. To put it simply, the distribution system of new bitcoins is hideously flawed because of that bitcoin will continue to trend lower as miners realize huge margins.

The competing side is demand, comprising speculative and transactional. Speculative demand can change on a whim, as it is more based on passions and emotions. Transactional demand is more or less fundamental and it has increased by only 25-30% from a year ago.

This is the flaw in bitcoin's distribution method.

As the purchasing power/real value (ie.how many goods/services bitcoin's can purchase)  increases, direct transaction fee's between users goes down. However the blockreward stays constant in bitcoin but INCREASES dramatically in real terms. This is a huge inefficiency and cost that must be absorbed by someone, ie users. Since mining has become so concentrated, a certain portion of the ecosystem is now rent seeking. They are being overcompensated for providing no new value.

Simple example.

1 year ago miners were earning $270,000 a day to secure roughly 55,000 transactions.
Today they are earning $2.2million a day to secure roughly 70,000 transactions.

Do you see this massive inefficiency and rent seeking? They will be consistently feeding this market supply unless demand ends up picking up dramatically.

Yeah, this has always been the case. But in the November run up we literally ran out of coins in China. There were none left on the exchanges, except for profit takers.

There are a lot of coins never making it to exchanges with funds buying them up before. I don't see the ask side accumulation to suggest a glut of new coins.

What do you mean the price is down over 50% since. The ask's are consistently feeding bids. They don't wait. We have been trending lower with occasional pops since November, that is not going to change.

I understood your original statement, I just disagree with some of it. I'll explain why.

 - The transaction cost isn't the block reward. After 2140 (Should Bitcoin even make it that far) the transaction cost would be the block reward because all new coins have been mined. Currently, the transaction cost is a tiny fraction of the block reward. The transaction volume will need to grow exponentially before the transaction fees constitute an appreciable block reward. 1MB block size won't cut it by then and the block size will be increased as needed to deal with the transaction volume.

 - The profit margin of top tier miners is obscene, but they aren't really holding Bitcoins out of circulation. The top tier miners are selling the Bitcoins to anybody willing to buy; spreading the wealth as the market allows. The medium and small miners may hold at a temporary loss but the cost of mining increases as the difficulty increases. This temporary coin-holding encourages market stability rather than volatility.

 - The distribution of Bitcoin is broadening, if you look at data extracted from the blockchain you will see that the number of coins in wallets containing greater than 1,000 XBT have decreased by more than 3% since January. The growth has been most prominent in the 1-5, 5-10, and 10-25 XBT wallets. The smaller holders are expanding rapidly while the large holders are dwindling down.

 - Withholding supply when price is low, and increasing supply when price is high is a price buffer; it encourages stability. If the demand is high enough that it exceeds the inflated supply, the price will increase, if not, price decreases and supply tapers...

 - Settlement in Bitcoin isn't impossible. I'm not sure which economic calculation Bitcoin doesn't afford which is required for settlement... The people you are settling with should understand that Bitcoin is volatile and if they prefer to be paid in conventional currency then that should be an option. However, you could always take your conventional currency, use it to buy as many XBT as it will afford at a fixed time, then the product of your purchase will be the settlement amount... Or you could use a daily set price, third party, localbitcoin price, there are plenty of ways to settle in Bitcoin while mitigating your risk. You don't need to base your settlement on a 1m chart...

 - You are right about the impact some wield over the market. This is a temporary problem left over from the birth of Bitcoin. This is a growing pain and soon it won't be easy for so few to manipulate the market.

 - 25-30% growth in transaction demand in a year is amazing.

 - If the price continues to trend downward it isn't solely the result of miners. The distribution of coins should be considered to determine which groups are buying and which are selling... The price today should be climbing, but the increased demand has been met with an abnormally high supply from some very large coin stashes. This is good for the long term but its causing a downward trend in the near term. Many more coins are being sold into the ASK walls right now than are being mined... The BID wall has been very strong considering the level of negative press.

It is true what you are saying, the distribution model is not optimal and the miner profits now may be obscene. However, there is still the fact that the supply of coins is absolutely limited and the demand is very low relative to its utility. A relatively minor increase in demand could send the price up to 10,000 dollars, and you forgot to mention an extremely important aspect of demand, store of value. Imagine that one Russian billionaire who has just been sanctioned by the United States decides to put a mere 100 million dollars into Bitcoin, at any price. It is reasonable to think that this will happen. It is only a small portion of an oligarch's wealth, and with international sanctions there are not really any other options for global mobile wealth transfer. At 600 dollars per coin, that is 166,667 coins, the number of new coins mined in 46 days. The 100 million this guy wants to put into Bitcoin would dwarf the increasing supply from newly mined coins and all the coins on offer at all the exchanges, and would send the price way up, possibly to 10,000 dollars. I think it is very likely that this will happen this year as the stability and security of the Bitcoin system becomes more clear to everyone.

I don't need a bunch of news-related events and speculation to tell you that we're not going to 10,000.  I simply need to take note of how the price trend has clearly diverged from that of previous cycles.

The poll is poorly worded. My opinion about the price trend has nothing to do with hackers.

+1

The perception and actual condition of Bitcoin in the real world has also clearly diverged from previous cycles.

Please explain this historical divergence. You shouldn't just go around making these sweeping suggestions, especially when you've been wrong as many times as you have. Explain yourself.

Bitcoin is such a small-fry right now. Obviously we can't assume $10,000 this year if nothing else changes. The trend can change in an instant and will change from previous cycles as unforeseen events happen... Look at the variables.

I think $10,000 is entirely possible before the end of the year. Our divergence from the previous cycle is expected. We lost Gox... That's a lot of hurt for a lot of people... That doesn't mean nothing good will happen this year. It just means that the "trend" has changed in light of a different market atmosphere...

The distribution of coins is shifting, only 39% of all Bitcoin in circulation is sitting in wallets with greater than 1,000 XBT; down over 3% from late Jan...

You offer some fine TA, but perhaps you should be reminded that TA isn't nearly as effective in a market as malleable as Bitcoin...

The Bitcoin price is pretty much like Play-Doh...

wow i just did calculation for dogecoin.

The dogecoin miners are securing the network for 270000 a day.

amazing eh.

https://www.tradingview.com/x/djVaA85n/

https://www.tradingview.com/x/2144Uoi5/

This is the first time that the "final capitulation phase" hitting the bottom at support levels did not result in an immediate mid term reversal breaking out of the major downtrend within 1 month. Instead, all of the indicators are back down. This is the first time the 1D MACD has gone down again before the 3D or any longer periods went up.

Final capitulation has not occured - just a series of flashcrashes based on news events.

why not it had two growth spurts in 2013

Granted that capitulation hasn't occurred yet and overall sentiment is bearish, witnessed by the constant slow trudge downwards in the last month or so.
When we do get there, which presumably will be on the scale of weeks rather than months and 400-500 rather than 200-300, then what?
I'm not a "$10,000 by Christmas to da moon choo choo!!!!" type myself. I can see more measured appreciation rather than new bubbles (we've been there, done that...). On the other hand I have no idea what developments VC funding, Winklevoss ETF, new investment etc will bring.

the blockchain data is way out not based on asics, and given the transaction rate, how will it exxceed protocol imitations, its not even going close

This is a year of consolidation, sustainably in 4 digits by year end hopefully

The question should be: will it reach 1000$ this year? ???

What is difficult to understand here.

3600 bitcoins are created out of thin air every single day.

The amount of fiat bids is not growing fast enough to absorb new supply at current prices.

Miners have huge incentive to realize gains at these levels from high profit margins. The bitcoin network is currently immensely underutilized relative to running cost, which is close to $1 billion USD a year.

You can't fight bad economic incentives programmed into protocol.

Satoshi envisioned every user or at least the majority of users also mining. This has not occurred, so you have the consequences which is a small minority controlling huge coin supply.
Everytime miners decide to sell, they deplete the liquidity pools of fiat. This increases bid/ask spreads and volatility. Satoshi believed new bitcoin distribution would be across a very wide audience. It isn't.

You are just flat out ignoring the possibility that demand will increase dramatically at some point in the future. Also, halving 2016.

False. Electricity is being converted to bitcoins via physical hardware.

Let's try to gauge transactional demand as best we can.

Even if we do 640,000 transactions per day which is the limit for the 1mb block, at a price of $1200 miners would be getting paid $7 per transfer for security.

Is that really cheap to you?

Also why would demand increase substantially in the future. Obtaining a bitcoin is very expensive once you factor in commissions and slippage. It can cost even up to 10%. As an example the bitcoin ATM's charge 5-7% on top of slippage.

Bitcoin's biggest transactional demand comes from areas where fiat transfers are prohibited or too difficult. That electronic store for example that takes BTC only said a huge portion of their sales are coming from high risk credit card countries like Pakistan etc. Like it or not, cybercrime and unlicensed gambling account for the vast majority of transactional demand. There simply is no incentive for an average user to give up consumer protection, palm prints, ID's to buy bitcoins at huge markups and spend them at Overstock. All these so called bitcoin adopting merchants are just exit conduits for miners and large holders, and guess what? They all settle in fiat.

There's no sense in arguing with a noob, I just wonder what he's doing here, he needs to GTFO right now and never come back. Obviously he's happy with his fiat and credit cards. He's never going to convert people like me, and we are never going to change his mind. He's here to just argue and pick a fight, a classic troll.

He is probably around 65yrs of age and can't look to the future... Theirs two things HUMANS HATE... 1. Change 2.Getting OLD, theses' two things are our enemies... unfortunately both go hand in hand.

Dr.Zaius, tomorrow your going to want the latest IPhone or the 2015 auto... Its Time for you to change with the time or get "left behind"...BUT don't worry your kids or ur grand kids will enjoy A BTC worth $10,000 one day :)


But WE need to STOP ALL this sharks (Hackers) stilling peoples BTC :(

I wish BTC at least wil reach $1,000 ! Can't believe it will reach more than $2,000 by the end of the year! too short period of time!

I wouldn't, because this would mean bitcoin would be just as inflationary as dollars.

I don't think bitcoin will reach 10,000. EVER.

Are you an old fiat bagholder?

Nope. I'm a young bitcoin holder. I trust bitcoin, I like bitcoin. But I can't see it there.

Why not.

Too many people will be too rich after speculating.

Too many compared to what? And too rich compared to what? Run some numbers for us.

Haha you made me laugh, that makes no sense at all.

justice to hackers
i wish theres a way

It will be below 100$ at the end of the year. Mark my words.

I understand your need to get numbers. I can only give this example: guy sitting on 10,000 BTC gets 100 MIL USD THAT HE CAN COPY ON A USB STICK. With BTC you can move shitload of money without banks, LEAs etc to know about. That's huge power in hands of one man. You can't get this much power if you have 100 MIL USD in assets or even 100 mil USD CASH.

You'd need a truck to move 100 USD cash.

this is possible but i dont think we will hit this price any time soon.

Or a bank account.

There can only be so many bitcoin thousenaires. Limited supply remember? Also any number of millions is not Rich. Billions maybe, or trillions. A relative handful of new millionaires would not majorly shift the world economy.

Then let's get to 10,000 so any 1 BTC holder can make thousands of times his investment. I've been here since bitcoin was nothing and I was so passionate on speaking and spreading it in the past, that people we're just dumb smiling at me. I really wanted to gain adoption but not to make more wealth for myself but because I was seeing it as an amazing thing.

But now things are different, we want it at 10k so we can make more $$. That's what's killing BTC at it's core. I am deeply saddened that we have still these exchanges and not using bitcoin enough, in the street.

Greed is the pillar that holds bitcoin up. Without it we would have no protection against a 51% and that would make bitcoin worthless for anything remotely related to the real economy.

I disagree. Greed grinds this economy. Because of it, we deceived ourselves we have 900k coins more than we thought we have (see MtGox). Greed brought this insane price without a solid base of commerce and transactions. Bitcoin is shady. 64% of Americans think it's a scam.

51% protection is almost a joke when we have centralized pools. Also, a decentralized protocol is a big no-no with all exchanges' centralized wallets.

Haha thats total bullsht, you prefer communism ?

Capitalism = greed.

Alright then, let's see your suggestion to avoid miners turning a profit without compromising the security of the network. This should be good.

quoted for future reference

I don't think Bitcoin will hit $10,000 mark this year but people believe and will believe in BTC.Trust me!

Definitely not happening this year. We got to hit 1k again before that is even a reality.
I'm hoping by to see 1k per coin this year and I will be ecstatic. 2k I'll shit myself and any higher I don't even know what I will do. :)

Surely there are plenty of bodily functions left for you to express your surprise? :)

Easily.

with people like u, yes of course we wont reach 10k this year.. because u said so...

just like this fake news few hours ago

price fall because of fake china ban btc news

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-03-20/btc-chinas-bobby-lee-bitcoin-isnt-really-banned-in-china-and-its-quickly-gaining-ground

READ!!!

http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/20znt2/the_news_about_china_banning_bitcoin_is_false/

wake up guys!!

I am surprised how many people have decided it wont happen when we're not even a 3rd through the year yet.

Oracles who can see pretty far out, but seem to be jumping past all the NYC exchanges coming, and the institutional providers coming most likely by year's end.

trendline is about $700 right now, will be $5k in end of year

we reached $1242 when trendline was $300 so $10k definately is possible this year 8)

looks like instead of 10,000 it will come down to $100,00 :(

Exactly. Only a fool would say "Bitcoin will NOT Hit the $10,000 mark this year".

Last year, people where saying Bitcoin was dead when it was going down around $150.
The people who sold everything at $158/159 that day expecting to buy back at $35 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=169651.0) lost everything.

My guess is it will hit at least $2400 by November. $10000 is such an often spoke target that many would sell of beforehand to not miss the "top" of the bubble. I would imagine a large correction if we approached 6 or 7 thousand. Things move fast but it is hard to see 10 grand before 2015 at this point. I would not discount the possibility though.

The 10K yes nice for people wanting to make money.

The main reason for 10, 100K and over is it makes the market a lot harder to manipulate and potentially a lot deeper, which is much much more usefull as a means of exchange.

Consider that at 100K you need 500 times the money to move the market compared to now all things being equal. So if I need 100.000$ to move the market a bit, now I need $50.000.000. There are a lot less people/entites and institutions with $50M ready to go to do this than 100.000K. Thus volatility likely decreases.

At the $1 Mill mark, even federal govts such as the US or China would have difficulty coming up with with 10 Billion here or there to influence the market, every day.

The stronger BTC gets the stronger it gets if you see what I mean.

Incidentally this makes a lot of holders wealthy. A lot of central banks/Govs have probably realised this and will do their best to shake out individual BTC holders, as a BTC holder has some similarity to a sovereign central bank, or at least is running their own bank.....that can't be easily shut down.

In some ways, the regulation and tacit "banning" of BTC is good for BTC/CC's as it keeps govs out for longer which gives BTC time to evolve sufficiently.

Wait a minute. I don't like the three choices. I choose "no, not this year", but it is not because there are too many hackers killing the dream.