Bitcoin Forum

After receiving messages and requests from my popular video and thread on Bitcoincointalk, "Bitcoin Halving Price Prediction $55,000 - $130,000" I decided to do a follow up on what price will be selling my Bitcoin during the next bull market phase and why.

https://youtu.be/HxIdyjmeJsc

I am always open to learning and growing my understanding while at the same time want to help as many people as possible. I believe this is a valuable resource for the community.

It is unrealistic. Just compare your desired market value with the current price of Bitcoin and see how far the difference is. If there will be a bull run, the market price would really increase but volatility will always exist given that it is in nature of the price of cryptos not only Bitcoin. With that being said, we cannot expect that its price will CONTINUOUSLY increase and for how long will the uprise be consistent. Also, the desired market price will only be achieved if there will be a consistency with the uprise which is impossible if we would base from the past.

It is not wrong to make assumptions of your ideal price of selling but if you are not aligning your expectations with the "reality" you would only earn disappointment especially if you have high hopes with regards to the profit to be earned for the next bull run.

I still can't believe people who think that bitcoin goes up like that all the time and could potentially go up like that all because "it previously happened". That is really sad, these are people who understand about trading and they are well versed in many things but they are forgetting such small details that change the whole market so big and they make wrong calculations all because of that.

The problem of your calculation is the fact that the amount of money coming into bitcoin every time there is a halving changes and also the amount required to go up changes as well. It requires more money to go from $10k to $20k then it required to go from zero to $10k, let alone something like $150k+ price point.

So, you are free to think halving will make things go up year after (I do agree with that part) but $150k+ can't happen, this time it is not like the previous easy ones because price is already high.

Where you have mentioned about your expected selling price range? I just checked the open post twice but I guess I need to open your link to know that whereas I hate out links for the purposes of what is the actual discussion. Please do not use this forum for monetizing your contents. You can include your links as this forum allows it but you must include what is actual needed for discussion.

People are making lots of threads by referring external articles but they also include the required content by quoting them. Why not you just do that so that clicking your links will be optional.

You have given people what they need to hear, which is that the price will go up to record levels of "33,000, 55,000, 10,000" or other prices, but this will be very bad for your long-term credibility.

It is best to analyze the market logically, giving reasons that could push the price to rise or collapse while giving your opinion of what can happen and which scenarios are closer to reality.

Try to give ratings every week to measure your ability to anticipate and gain some good reputation.

just like it was never possible to predict the previous ATH to be at $20k when it was below $900, it is not possible to predict the next ATH when it is still $9000.
first the rise has to start, then the FOMOs has to begin then the bubble has to start building up and finally maybe during the last month of the long cycle we could come up with a much closer guess which still wouldn't be accurate.
you "predicting" it now is only making you look bad and naive...

I also find it annoying to have people click for their external link just to know what they are trying to say when they can just easily write it down in his post.  

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The first thing I saw the prediction of OP is way overboard, I lost my interest in hearing his target price.  I am sure his selling price will be unrealistic too ;D  (well OP didn't put his selling price target  here and I am too lazy to click OP's link to know the actual target so don't be mad at me if I assume a wrong figure).

Nah, I'm just looking for the price to even just reach into $12k then I will seel my Bitcoin. I don't wait for that $55k coz that it looks out from reality and totally played by hypes. We're not getting that for sure and even reaching $20k is really hard. How much more for $55k? Maybe I was not an optimistic person but I'm not also being desperate to think like that and encourage people to wait until then because aren't sound possible to happen.

If there's a significant rise of bitcoin price, I think that $12k is just optimal to sell once bullrun massively punched a huge percentage. This must not be ignored because the opportunity is unpredictable, so if it's not really urgent try to hold on still and just wait for the price to hit that $20k predictions.

That's such a huge jump from the current $9000 level, there's a lot of prediction but yours is something very high I also have my own prediction and I want to be moderate on it, because Facebook and China has not yet release their own coin this two coins will have an impact on the standing of Cryptocurrency in terms of adoption.

12k This is a very possible price in this year, and I think it's too fast for you to sell your Bitcoin, after Halving, I'm very optimistic that the price of Bitcoin can reach 15k. So for me, I will sell my Bitcoin next year, a year after Halving happened. I hope the price of 50k can happen next year.

This. Start of 2017 the price is ~$1k, then it goes to $2k then $3k, then people scream that the top will be $5k. I still vividly remember those discussions back then. But look at what happened at the end of the 2017. So in my case, I won't tell my price I'm going to sell because we really don't know what will be the top again. Maybe it can go to a parabolic rise again up to $50k, but we will never know until we crossed that bridge.

Of course we love predictions but I guess we also need to be realistic as well.

Lately I have started to go through people ideas on tradingview and I have notice common market analysis. The next bull run is going to create high impact on the pricing. The 2017 high price is going to be break in an hour and we are going to wetness unpresident breakout that will keep bitcoin above $55,000 before end of this year.

Yeah, with you on this. The levels of discussion we see today on forums on social media, we couldn't find them om those days. Not easily, and certainly not as frequently. But they were just as rabid and just as convinced... and yet most of them -- like me and like you -- had to be pragmatic about things. We all love a parabolic rise, but we can't afford to put all our hopes on one, got mouths to feed and rent to pay!

I think the reason we are having such discussions now is because of the performance of bitcoin especially in 2017 December. This is brought many interest into it.

However, as for the speculated price after halving, I do think is not too unrealistic if we go with what happened in 2017 which I don't think was because of halving. So now that we are going to have halving, the $55k or $33k price isn't too much to reach.
For example, in 2017 at least we had close to 200% increase from the time price was $1k.

Well halving started in 2016 and it took months before we can finally see the effect on it. So in a sense it has something to do with dramatic rise and the eventually bubble of December 2017.

Different times though, if you look at the historical graphs, the lowest low is around $3200, so for the sake of arguments multiple it x 200% = $64K, is that a realistic price if we ever see the next bubble? And how long does it take for the price to reach that peak?

It should be clear to everyone that all the speculation we have today is the result of a reflection on the previous two halvings. The undisputed facts are that the first halving caused the price increase of 8000% and the second 2800%. If we consider these facts, then 1000% in the third halving would be quite realistic, which brings us to the $100 000 price tag.

However, such things should always be taken with great caution, because history does not always repeat itself, and some might use the next halving to play the exact opposite game. Personally, I think we'll see a new ATH in 2021, maybe even later this year, but it's not a hard fact, it's just speculation like everyone else's.

What usually happens after ATH is a major correction, and OP is an obvious example of why is it happening. So if you're thinking of selling, do it before things go downhill, and don't buy BTC during a bull run, buy it today.

Oh for sure, I mean when I properly looked at discussions in 2016, this was after the halving as Baofeng points out, and still a lot of issues grappling with post Mt Gox era, and years for dwindling nothingness, people thought the >1k price simply wasn't coming ever again.

It's not all the same now, and 2017 boom people also probably forget was a convergence of so many factors including the splitting away of BCH, the threats of the mining cartels, all that "civil war" drama -- which people predicted would tear Bitcoin apart. Maybe we need another crisis to emerge intact from?

I wonder what year would it be before OP could finally sell his BTC.
The price is too high and too hard to reach right now but I guess we all have our target price before selling our crypto.
And OP is free to do what he wants with his crypto so there is no problem even if he/she sets it to a Million dollar per BTC.

Well, we can all have dreams but reality is something different.
To expect to sell Bitcoin at so high price is exaggerated and you might never come to.that point. So, set more realistic goals that you can achieve instead of dreaming to become millionare over night.

Let's just hope the next bull cycle actually reaches your requirement lmao. Even if we assume a boom similar to what happened to 2017 happens, lets be honest. Back then, a lot of people were surprised, ignorant, and shocked about the event. But it immediately died down no? Price immediately crashed and the depression days immediately came to the market. What about now? Where people are expectant, where people are watching, where people are observing? I bet the moment it steps onto $20k or higher, a vast majority of those who actually traded to make a quick buck would exit the market. This prevents the market from fully growing, and it might actually just need a few more decades before reaching the price you want.

Oh god, I know crypto is unpredictable but these predictions are clearly Impossible. Look at the current market price and analyse based on that then make speculations. More and more people's are eagerly waiting for halving without any doubt but this is out of my mind.

That's a crazy price for Bitcoin, we are now closer to Halving. But the price of bitcoin is still not too much volatile so predictions of prices rising to 20k-30k or even 50k will not be able to come true. This year I think prices will range from 10k $-15k $. So you should not set a target so high, it will cause you to be disappointed if the price collapsed in the near future.

This is not just you, even a crypto kid is making a prediction about the next bitcoin price in the bull run where they have no knowledge except some hearing about the halving things. I feel caution that this FOMO will break the credibility of bull run once again like before! Guys, try to stay on the earth, please! No one knows what price exactly Bitcoin will hit, but we are predicting through the fact! When you predict 40-50-100K USD for one Bitcoin because of the halving, that makes no sense at all!

Its your selling price not ours so its up to you. I'm sure there will be a lot of people going to sell when the price of BTC touches the $20k, this is so that the people who kept holding BTC still while they bought at $20k had already got their money back. Its a long waiting game for them but they will savor the moment they got their money back. Do you think this 50K or 100K is going to take 2 bullrun cycle?

Way too unrealistic range. Didn't bother to check on your link, you should've wrote your analysis and predictions here so everyone wont bother to leave the forum just to check on your personal opinions.
As we all know Bitcoin has a very volatile nature and nothing is impossible range that Bitcoin could reach. But, in a realistic approach, It's seems that the range you have presented is hard to achieve in this current marker situation, where Bitcoin is struggling to stay on the $10,000 level.

Of course it will be different for everyone of us, lots of factors to consider and you really need to be sure of everything before you sold them and be satisfied of your profits.

But unrealistic goals is not good in the long run though as you might be disappointed if the price of bitcoin will not go that far. We just have to wait and see what the future will bring to all of us

It is nice to set up your goal but I think it is way too high.
I would set up my price a much more lower,
I would sell my savings when the price reach around $30-40K,
I would also accumulate more while waiting for it to reach my goal.

Predicting the bitcoin or the market price is not that bad especially if it will help the crypto to hype more but as a fellow crypto member in this forum. I can say that too much prediction will only give a bad effect to bitcoin and the crypto society someday.

So it will be best if you will create a prediction that is near to the reality. 55k after the halving is too much especially if you have been following the market closely, I've been following the market daily so I know the capacity of the market even if there is a big hype. After the bull run the maximum that we can expect is 30k and if we can hit more than that then it's a bonus but don't expect too high as the market is very volatile, in every increase there is always a little setback of prices.

I think the distance from the price that you predicted would require a very high effort because it is very difficult to be able to raise the price of bitcoin so expensive, even returning to the price of $20k requires a very high effort because it requires a lot of money.

I hope the target that you predict can be glazed smoothly.

I also forgot to mentioned, the ETF application (and subsequent denial of SEC) of the Wiklevoss bros, that put the price < $1k again in early 2017. And then Japan entering the picture, followed by Australia.

So it's hard to duplicate those 'factors' in 2017 that push the price to its bubble. 2020 is very different, investors mature, irrational buyers are now using their brain and not into that FOMO attitude, there are a lot of factors to really consider at the side.

Yup! It's never the same, is it? I do believe in cycles, but that's the overall big picture, and not necessarily correlated to any event like halving. I mean, so many more arguments I disagree with too on that side of things (halving and scarcity they're not immediately influential and nobody actually really cares). It's got to be so much more complex than simple triggers that people make it out to be.

Although, I do agree investors mature, there's always new meat coming in... every halving does bring a new set of investors/speculators.

Agree, what you call new meat, I call them fresh blood.  :)

Again, it's just a question of where they should come though, I firmly believed that institutional money in already in, we might be looking at retail money though as new source for the next big bubble. Or just average joes around the globe who wanted to join to set another 360 degree turn.

With such goals and contentment you will be able to enjoy the wait, once the value already being reached then it's good for you to forget about anything.

The cycle will bring huge value to your holdings, as most of the time halving really bring good market movement and selling it with your target value
is achievable.

Everyone can give their analysis when they want. But we have to think realistically. Random people can predict random price. The price is very high. It will definitely take time to get to this price. Many will probably sell their bitcoin before going to that price. Because you can't sell ar the at top. None of us really don’t know what the top price will be.

Exactly, 2017 was unforgottable for everyone as the entire world was shocked with the massive price of BTC. Like you said this year was the one where most of the people showed interest therafter.

Also there are lot of speculations coming around from the so called analysts but few are unique and most of the speculations are unbelievable, my predict is 15k after halving 8)

No one would ever forget that 2017 bull run specially to those who have been into this market for long time and also for those who did just recently jumped in because on the price that they have seen.

I dont believe into those so-called analyst or experts out there and same as you said i dont even see the reason why would the heck that someone believe on 1M/btc price prediction or
even on hundreds of thousands is already unrealistic.

Reaching previous ATH is somewhat realistic compared to others.hehe

Yes true 150k$ is can't be happen it's very high and its not easy bitcoin goes up like that. Bitcoin maybe will grow 20k$-30k$ it is possible but that 150k$ its been so high that price. Many speculation prices right now but that price is been so so high.

obvious that you only want others to click and gain traffic on your channel,why not just Give us the details here ?
and besides in here?never expect things will come your way just like that because we have been seeing failure from time to time because of this huge expectation.
stop looking for those instead just be contented with what market can Gives us as profit.

I disagree, I see the opposite side as to where the people where expecting for the price to set a new record for an all time high price so they would be more likely holding Bitcoin more than the $20,000 value. A lot of people would think that, as the bullish price indicates a massive increase in the value of Bitcoin, they would not abandon it easily for their hopes to increase their income even more and surpass ultimately their expected income from the start.

I like your confident here, and I really when you try to convince some people out there to pull themselve into this place. You can tell them with data, please check it out with the history of bitcoin halving in privous years. At least there are twice event that bitcoin halving have happened and most of the event have gave a lot of thing for the price movement. Hopefully, there will be many people who believe with what you say and try to invest their money into bitcoin. Sound realistic when you say $50.000 as another all time high, we can see it later by the way.

And I won't be selling my bitcoins in the next bull cycle. I'm pretty sure this isn't going to be the last one and already planning to do it at 55 thousand when we aren't even at 15 is a waste of time if you ask me.

OP is dreaming about what he'll do when he gets rich and in the meantime he'll get old dreaming and his Bitcoins will be at 50 thousand but he won't sell because he assumed the right level is 55 :D