Bitcoin Forum

https://i.imgur.com/ghBoZVi.jpg

Here I'm creating this topic to provide you my personal crypto analysis. (mostly BTC/USD)
So anyone here can check the analysis and use them if they want to.
However, my analysis are not for trading purpose these are not signals, just normal analysis for educational purpose.
You may think all of them are wrong! and maybe you are right so you can share your comments here with me.
Also here you can share your own public analysis if you want.
I do technical analysis and usually won't check the fundamental news.
Let's hope to create a nice and useful topic here together.

BTC/USD daily.
https://i.imgur.com/aF5BiWU.png

As you can see we had an important support area after the long shadow on 26th Oct. and the support is already broken and came to a new lower level of the price. bellow 10058. (the green line)
Also with MA 20 you can also get a bearish signal as you can see on the photo.
and we do have bearish engulfing lines on candles.
But here we do have the the strong support area at 9100-9200.
And we do have the cup on the yellow spot
So I believe the market will keep going down until reaching the mission of touching the support area. but after the downtrend we will see much stronger uptrend attempt to break the resistance line. maybe up to 10600.
 

Cool, its always nice to see other analysts on the forum. I'd suggest moving your thread to Speculation. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=57.0) It's slightly less spammy there, and it's also where price speculation technically belongs. You can check out my thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5196072.0) too while your at it. :)


If you look at the 2019 bull run, buying below the 20-day MA was quite profitable.

Will move the topic, thanks
buying below MA works but not always

BTC/USD
https://i.imgur.com/FQwcDG9.png
My analyzes are all bearish these days.
Here we can see we had a head and shoulder pattern on the chart.
Alright, as you can see here after reaching the resistance of the channel we expect a bearish movement to the support line.
However, the best plan here is to wait for a valid bearish pivot from a pin bad or engulfing pattern.

BNB/USD
https://i.imgur.com/KUF2gqK.png
Here is a good example of trend reversal signal of the market.
As you can see on the MACD indicator, The market formed a bullish divergence, which gives us a trend reversal signal. (The pink lines)
If we look at the chart, you will see the downtrend line. If the downtrend line breaks out, the trend reversal signal will be confirmed and It will give you buy opportunity.
However, since we are talking about the crypto currency market, everything is related to Bitcoin movement. so, if the bitcoin falls, BNB will fall and this market also will move into a downward.
Also we do have a support area on ~20. So, even if the price started a downward after reaching the 20 we should see the uptrend again.

I hesitate to call it an H&S because of the ambiguous and downward-sloping neckline. These aren't usually great performers in my experience.

Overall, I agree with your sentiment though. Despite the pop to $10K, I expect the market to meander sideways a while longer. I also think a drop to the 50-day MA (currently $9,125) or the 200-day MA (currently $8,824) is still quite possible.

What are your thoughts on the bigger picture, like the weekly and monthly time frames?

Tank you for contributing in this topic and thank you for your comment.
As I said In the first post of the topic the goal of this thread is just to educate other users about the technical analyzes. So, with using the head and shoulder pattern I wanted to give the readers an example.
But I agree with your comment because the patterns like head and shoulder are not reliable for trading. however, this method can be a helping hand sometimes.
I'll share the BTC/USD analyzes about the weekly and monthly time frames soon as you asked me to.
Thank you again.

BTC/USD Long-term (weekly)
https://i.imgur.com/NsRgClx.png
Here as you can see we are already on a fractal bull cycle, also third halving of bitcoin is scheduled on May 12th. So, we can calculate that the first phase of the current bullish cycle will last around more than 520 days (Bottom made on December 15th 2018 and marked on the picture above with an arrow). That's why the people whom bought that this point are big winners.
But unfortunately, I see a lot of holders scared with the current pull back of the price which is normal but they shouldn't be.
So, here on the chart as you can see the bottom is always the point of the lowest value of price where the bearish movement(retrace phase) ends and the bullish phase movement starts.(Marked with arrows).
Also we had the same pattern on the cycles(the 49%-51%) on first and second round of bitcoin halving. so, we expect to see the the same pattern on movement for the third round of the bitcoin halving. but this time much stronger because of fundamental reasons.
An explanation about the 49%-51% cycles, you can see every bullish movement of this market can be divided into two bullish phases (marked with light/dark grey colors on the chart).
You can also checkout the current price channel of the last bullish movement(pink channel).
The current golden support area is also visible for the current phase of the bullish cycle with yellow color on the picture above.
In the other hand, as another example of trend reversal signal if you look at the black dotted trend channel, you will see a valid example of the trend reversal.

I remember that head and shoulder formation will lead to down fall and I am seeing in your charts that you are pointing out a head and shoulders formation.

By considering the market is continuously for 2 weeks got stuck within the range of $10,400 to $9400 levels and by observing its upper side range is diminishing on every attempt to break the resistance levels which may signal another short term dump. Hence, we can expect bitcoin markets to test its immediate support levels around $9200 to $9150 ?

You long term chart based on halving is interesting. Could you project to possible rally's peak after the 3rd halving?

Thank you for sharing us your comment and contributing here, much appreciated!
Head and shoulder doesn't always mean to be bullish or always bearish
You can find more info here: http://thepatternsite.com/chartpatterns.html
Yes, there is still a possibility for the market to touch the $9200 price.
Unfortunately, I'm a little busy these days but I'll try to post give some info about the long-term chart if you are interested.

I speculate to drop to $8800-9000, I'm only looking to RSI indicator though. There is no other indicator to validate my speculation but I think the strong support for is in this range so if the price will still be in red for a week, that's about the price bottom which RSI will mean its oversold. $9200 also has a support so there might be a spike when it touch that price before dropping again.

BTC/USD
https://i.imgur.com/e11oIIy.png

Here as you can see we are on the 3h time frame.
As you can see on the chart the RSI and MACD oscillators you can see the bullish divergence, as you can see on the chart we had a new low price which was not confirmed by RSI and MACD oscillators. so we can expect a trend reversal here.
As we expected before, the method we already said about it before (bullish trend reversal signal) is clear is here and you can easily detect it. -the price broke the black dotted trend line already and started the uptrend movement.
Also you see the the valid Pivot on the chart - marked with yellow rectangle area.
In the other hand the RSI started moving from the oversold zone area.

Also here on the daily chart you can see a gartley pattern. However I won't confirm this one. but, you can also consider it and expect for a bullish trend here
https://i.imgur.com/1GuH3Su.png

BTC/USDT going down soon!
https://i.imgur.com/r4wmuhu.png
Hello every one,
After a few days I'm here to share another analyse with you related to BTC/USDT
recently due to some sharp movements the price is growing but there should be stooped somewhere at a point and start to retrace the uptrend movement.
I believe if the price stays in the blue channel we can expect the retrenchment soon. But since we are talking about a crypto currency, the other scenario is to breaking the resistance line and going for the next channel.
I would personally vote for the first scenario and expecting the retrenchment very soon.

To whom it may concern,
Last analyze worked as I was expected to see the first scenario happening, much much appreciated everyone who followed and contributed in this thread.
Since the recent movement of the Bitcoin price. I believe, it's time to check the alternative coins markets as well.
Maybe I'll try to post some a few analysis from alternative coins soon. But, still I'll keep updating you about the Bitcoin price.
Please kindly feel free to commenting your ideas.

Good to see that your previous analysis/prediction worked very well although I hadn't noticed your thread. My expectations was wrong since I had believed that bitcoin would go over $8K and I had a plan to sell small amount from my portfolio for real cash.

Regarding atlcoin analysis or prediction still I believe we shouldn't go with it on current circumstances. It would quite complicated to analyse altcoin if there isn't any real positive news. If in case bitcoin play negative role then we might encounter big loss. As far as I know altcoin volume is reducing currently (I am not sure, just my opinion). So it would quite risky for alt prediction/analysis.

What's your take on altcoin though? Does it follow bitcoin or will it start to de-couple as well?

The reason why I ask this is because if it will just follow bitcoin then I don't think you need extra effort to do your analysis on them. Much better to focus solely on bitcoin as this is what everyone wanted here, to see such predictions like yours. You just don't know, maybe you have a following here and waiting for your bitcoin prediction only because obviously, you are really doing a good job.

I would advise that you just do bitcoin predictions for now. Stay away from alternative coins, otherwise you will need to open a thread on that board. I don't know how 'difficult' it will be for you to track Altcoins movements are there are thousands of them literally.

I will agree with what the other posters are saying, bitcoin is what members here wanted to see. Of course there are risk, but if they see someone making good at technical analysis, then you don't know, maybe they are going to look at your predictions before they make up their mind on investing or trading.

Yeah I'd stick to Bitcoin. As it is, TA is contentious in a market like Bitcoin, with a lot of people still pointing out that it's not as big or as decentralised a market as its proponents would like to believe. I tend to agree it's not as big as the numbers are putting it, but I also believe the hidden data (OTC, P2P) is also more than able to make up for all the wash trading that's inside the data.

I digress.

You can argue about the validity of data from BTC/USD markets. But arguing against validity of alts is much, much harder. You also need a new thread in the relevant section for that!

I'm really sorry for the late reply and just excited to see the interest to this thread.

Hello Jating,
I appropriate your contributing here
Alternative coin's price usually follow the bitcoin's price and sometimes the opposite. To make it clear if you see a very high amount of ATR/Dominance on bitcoin's price usually it's not a good time to start trading on altcoins because if the spike happen usually FUD and some emotional movements will happen after that. and people won't trade altcoins that much in this case. relation between bitcoin price and the altcoin price is just like the relation between father and son, Sometime they obey and sometimes they won't. But if the father gets sad the son will be angry and if the father gets happy the son will enjoy. That's why after the bitcoin price dump many traders stooped trading on altcoins.
You can check the dominance here: https://cryptocurrencyfacts.com/what-is-bitcoin-dominance/

Hello btc_angela,
I appropriate your contributing here.
Yes, due to the reason I explained above I agree with you right now. I was planing on altcoins because I was expecting to see a lower ATR and a better situation. But, Right now I changed my mind.

Hello buwaytress,
Thank you for your participation here.
Yes, good point.
And the thing about the altcoins is I prefer to watch the fundamental new as well. Since you only trade on one market, BTC/USDT for example, You can always check the news from reliable resources while none can check every single news from altcoins, at last I can't. I prefer to play on a field I know.

BTC/USDT
https://i.imgur.com/62oHQv0.png
As you can see the price reacted to the blue dashed support line and the green area drawn above is our current important resistant level of the price because the of 50% retracement fibo level + dynamic resistance line of the daily char (The pink link) + static ATR resistance area (The green area).
After the previous fall of the price I expect the price to rise high up to the 50% Fibo level and break the support blue dashed support line. However, if the price rises and break the green important ATR area I expect the price the enter the new channel and start a side (complex)movement.

That's almost kind of what I was saying really, that you can at least have a good sense now that TA works or at least has workable data from markets to produce some logical charting, but you almost can't say the same for alts outside the big 3 or 4, simply because they don't have good data to make good TA -- so you really only can rely on fundamental news, which you feel at least hopefully sways the prices. Good luck again;)

ETH/USDT/240
https://i.imgur.com/8MHaY41.png
After taking a rest here it is the technical analyze of Ethereum. Recently and during the last days the ETH price was moving on ascending price channel and ceiling range. After moving away from the golden and strong support areas if you take a look at 20-50 day movings, ParabolicSar is showing the support area @230usd. According to Fibonacci levels, we expect the resistance in the range of 250-259usd and a price correction coming up before the resistance area.

____________________________________
You can also check out my BTC/USDT analyse here: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.msg54547532#msg54547532

It is really interesting to see how technical analysis is getting failed against the potential of bitcoins. I have seen lots of people are speculating about the possible down trend incoming weeks whereas I just believed into the basic fundamentals of bitcoin ecosystem; one of them is higher tx fees. Usually higher network fees lead to price of bitcoin increasing as it simply denotes like miners may not be interested in buying new mining equipment but they may go for buying bitcoins for the same money.

I am sure you must need to have another topic on Speculation (Altcoins) (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?board=224.0) to cover your ethereum analysis.

(Also, you may post same image on multiple places to cover boards/topics like Wall Observer and here. Posting same image on both the topics will not be a problem but description should be at only one place).

You should read the first post once again. As I said I'll be shearing my personal analysis in differente markets. Like I shared about OGN before. I'm not going to create another thread for it. However, mostly I post BTC analysis here.

The technical analysis won't fail. unless the market collapses due to some strong and unexpected new such as 11th September, Covid-19, etc...
But the technical analyzers fail sometimes. If you understand the price action very well. (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5229837.msg53948767#msg53948767) you will understand there is strong logic behind it. The price is reacting to the levels as it should.
If the price rises and react to some price level some traders were right and if the price falls and react to the support areas some other traders where right. But, in both cases you can't blame technical analyse science for it. Sometimes, I'm wrong but the technical science and price action is in wrong. It's all about the statistics and probability we can never say we are a hundred percent sure.
News like tx fees won't change the price directly. It's all about supply and demand and traders buying or selling in the market.

I'll consider your comment. actually, It's against my will. since I hate copy/paste stuff even if it's mine. But I'll try. Thank you  for the suggestion.

Thanks for your comments @FanEagle and visiting this thread. I'll to be more accurate in my analysis next time. Hope to see you and your comments in this thread again.

I too believe altcoin analysis and its speculation does not belong to this board. Do you have any specific problems in accessing altcoin speculation sub? It is always a good practice to post according to the boards which help right people to find your researches at right times and with less searches.

Instead of posting same image again and again on different boards, it would be much better practice to go for quoting them wherever needed. This way you will never breach any of forum rules. I am not sure about rules on posting same image on multiple places.

I believe you can do that if it actually belongs to you (i.e.; your work) else you'll need to give credits to the owner of that image in order to abide by the forum rules and you won't have any issues.

@OP,
I guess you've stopped posting BTC analysis completely or what? I had been following your thread as you used to give good BTC analysis but I'm seeing nothing from your end since April about BTC. Please share some more insights on what do you believe about the next possible BTC move?

I'll stop sharing altcoin analysis.

Hello Stedsm,
Thank you for your motivational message. I'm happy to see you are following this thread. Recently, I had some personal issues. But, sure, I'll be much more active here because of nice people like you. You have my worlds.

BTC/USDT

https://i.imgur.com/rJPqWV4.png
Seems like the 10,450-10,500 resistance area is still not broken and resists as bulls are not strong enough pass the resistance area. So, we expect the price to do a retracement move. The volume is also decreased as I mentioned in the picture above. Also, since price already done the bullish movement during last 2-3 months and failed to pass the resistance area we expect a price correction here.

https://i.imgur.com/RtMHxRS.png
Let's go for short-term now.
As you can see, after recently breaking our triangle and coming back to it(false breakdown), the price is getting near to resistance area of the triangle. So, we expect bearish movement here.

BTC/USDT
https://i.imgur.com/sFB0afQ.jpg

Is short-term time-frames bitcoin is unstable. But, in 4 hours and 1 day time frames it has ascending trend movement, and these day we see lots of price manipulation in the market. In order to continue the ascending trend it should pass the 10,000 once again and stay stable above 10,000. Otherwise, I would refer you to my halving technical analyze I provided before, where I believe Bitcoin trading for lower prices @7800-6600.

Top of the range, top of short term move even medium term is maybe a fair view.  Neutral to negative bet seems ok to me though I dont think its proven either way and Bitcoin always wants to surprise people.



Its being tested so often by the market I think it gives way not that we see failure of the uptrend overall but a proper test is failure short term and fall back to some support maybe even nearby and then we close back above the positive trend on weekly after trying all prices.

Hey STT,
Appreciated for sharing us your comment about the market.


That's exactly why I said the price is unstable. That's difference between crypto market and Forex. The price on crypto usually surprise traders due to many other reason.


Can't be sure about this part. But yes, in my own idea it's possible to failure the current trend and start a downtrend in short-term and after touching the support area we can see Bitcoin reaching new top levels.

I don't consider the 250$ price as a strong support because we have been there for couple of times last year and same as the start of this year yet?nothing proves it is a strong position,Not unless Ethereum Break the 300$ value then i may consider that a strong and bullying status.


Almost all of the Thread says Bitcoin need to stay at 10,000$ level and stay for long time but not coming to soon.

Maybe this time we need to let the Below 10k level as a basis of our investment and focus in investing again,instead of waiting for high price to sell off?

Let it fall in $7k value and surely i will Buy double of my investments because may Point now is if i cannot make a 11k selling price then i will add more for my holdings and wait until the effect of halving happens.

Decent possibility. I'd like to see how that weekly candle closes first. It's a bearish shooting star for now (great reversal sign) but there is still 28 hours to go. Bulls could close it back up into a more neutral doji by then.

The headfake to $10.4K is ominous for bulls, but since there was no follow through by sellers at all, we need to wait and see. Breaching the June 2nd low ($9,270 Coinbase) will be an early sign of bearish continuation. Breaching the May 25th low ($8,630 with the daily lower BB at $8,700) and we could see some real blood.

Until then, prepare to be trolled. This market is very unpredictable at the moment.

BTC/USDT 4H
https://i.imgur.com/3XOdluB.png

As you can see on the picture above, the downward movement can be seen in Ichimoku and we are also waiting for the price fall. The recent tend-line was broken and in order to change the trend and continue the ascending movement, the trend line should break upward and break the 9680-9700 strong resistance area(It requires very heavy support). This resistance is very important because it is also common point of our 50 day moving, Ichi and Fibo, which all play the role of resistance. After breaking this important resistance area, we can once again see the price touching 10,000 usd. But, in the case of not having enough support, our first scenario, which is shown in the picture above, will happen

BTC.D
https://i.imgur.com/Xw8WrTj.png

Dominance of Bitcoin is currently moving into an ascending channel. Considering that it will be difficult for alternative coins trading after increasing dominance we expect to see the altcoin's price falling and losing the marketcap. That's I suggest to avoid trading on altcoin if you don't have the enough information. Maybe we will see price jump and subsequent price floor for some coins.

BTC/USDT 2H

https://i.imgur.com/IgvBGtV.jpg

Hey fellas. As you can see here on the chart, in 2 hours time frame price is moving on a descending channel. Due to the channel reaction, Fibonacci level and 100 days moving, we expect the resistance area @9550-9700. Our important support area will be @9250, if it fails and break the support area, we will continue the downward trend until 8800-8300. The rest of the resistance and support areas are shown in the picture above.

Since the last analyzes from 16th June worked perfectly and the price reacted as I was expected, here I'm going to share an other analyze with you.

BTC/USDT 4H
https://i.imgur.com/1WOb0R8.jpg

As you can see on the picture above, the price is still moving on a descending channel. The important support area is @9080-9100 and because of the 50-day moving, Fibonacci 61.8 and Ichimoku resistance the most important resistance area can be 9450. In the other hand, 9550-9600 is also super strong resistance area. Because, we do have the possible price reaction to the price channel ceiling and 100-day moving. Generally, I see more descending sign than ascending. So, I expect descending price movement on the market.

That's a tempting channel, but also an extremely dangerous buy zone. The reason why it's so dangerous is the currently tight range coiling for breakout. With bands this tight, we need to be prepared for more than a simple undercut of the $8,900 lows. We could get a full blown BB breakout, like these other 2 examples to the left:

https://i.imgur.com/kbFdDEF.png

I also expect a flurry of stops to trigger if your buy zone doesn't hold and we get a weekly lower low sub-$8,630.

BTC/USDT 4H
https://i.imgur.com/E9BQgpc.jpg

According to the chart shown above, I expect temporary growth to the range shown on the chart. After the recent price fall to 8800, price reacted to the support area very well. In 2 hours time frame, the positive regular divergence (to change the trend, not the correction!) was recorded in MACD oscillator. Also, price is moving on a short-term downward channel (Orange channel) and it's currently on the roof of the  short-term channel. If the candle closes above 9170 and and after price growth stabilization at 9260 and stabilization another candle above this area, I expect the price to rise at 9480.

BTC.D 1D
https://i.imgur.com/PDepq1H.jpg

I see many people talking about alternative coins and bitcoin dominance. So, here I'm going to provide you my BTC.D analysis. As you can see on the picture above, I expect this kind of movement in mid-term time frame. First price retracement until 64 percent and then increase until 67 percent. (Here I also expect decrease the price of bitcoin.) and then, decrease dominance of bitcoin until 62, which will change altcoin markets a lot. As I said before, We are currently in the first wave of decline until 64. In this situation, we are expecting the growth of altcoin prices, then hard decrease and then increase the prices again.

BTC/USDT 4H
https://i.imgur.com/EiO9nxg.png

As you can see on the chart shown above, we are currently on a downtrend channel (green channel). Static support and resistance levels based on half of the ATR value are clear on the chart with green rectangles. After breaking of the uptrend blue channel today and rejection the channel floor, next support level can be 8800 and after that we can see the price at downtrend green channel floor, we do have also the second static support area here. After touching of the support area, we expect to see the price attempting to reach the channel ceiling at 9450-9500 once again.

What would it take to invalidate that channel, in your view? A candle close below the lower bound? A break of that lower support area in the $8,600s?

The way it's bleeding without strong bounces is a bit ominous to me. I don't really like dip buying this range anymore. With volatility at extreme lows, a breakout (quite possibly down) is very possible in the near future.

Thank you @exstasie for your contribution again, you are the one who motivating me to publish more analysis by following this thread.
Since this analysis is short-term based, I didn't mention the lower support areas. But, yes, if the key support area breaks (Which is completely possible) we may see downtrend channel with a greater angel to lower prices or even another sharp movement.
Much appreciated again.

BTC/USDT 1D/2H

https://i.imgur.com/IJSlhJP.png
As you can see on daily timeframe, Something important is happening. Yesterday on Bitcoin market, daily candlestick was closed out of the daily downtrend channel, But it's not a valid break yet, we can't confirm if it's the dynamic resistance is beaked or not. However, last daily candle(current candle) opened out of the daily channel and it's about to close out of it (15 hours to make sure and anything can happen during this time.). If the channel breaks we can expect higher prices.

https://i.imgur.com/W0Wavrs.png
Here is 2 hours timeframe, we do have the support on 9375, Also the next resistance is around 9670. So, if the daily dynamic downtrend channel breaks and price stay stable above the support area(Yellow Rectangle), Next target can be expected around 9670 as shown on the picture with green rectangle.

I feel like that 9670 shouldn't be that hard, I know that it looks like we can go to any direction at any given moment, but to everyone I would suggest putting buy orders at around $9670 level so that if the price reaches there, you should buy as much as you could and in the end you would be able to take advantage of the situation where the price will definitely go above $10k if it breaks over 9670 levels.

Obviously, leviathan is making a ton better explanation of this with the charts, but I just wanted to say my two cents about the direction and not the levels because I have to agree he is much better at figuring out the levels himself. To me, that chart looks like start of a bull run that will definitely see us go above $10k very soon and not even take a month before we are higher and staying there.

BTC/USDT 4H
https://i.imgur.com/jfEn4pL.png

As you can see on the chart above, we are still on a price compression shown with a pink color on the chart, After breaking this price compression area from any side we can expect to see a dangerous sharp movement. We do have the strong support area on 8980 and 9080, this can make another price jump to 9600 and 9800. and this 9600 - 9800 resistance in a very important area where the market decides to continue the trend or after breaking 9900 we can expect to see Bitcoin on higher channels up to 11k, Or by not breaking it we can expect to see the price at 7800.

Hello sana54210,
Thank you for visiting this thread and sharing your thoughts with me. Yes, higher targets even the 10K again are not that much hard. Since we expect to see the price breaks one side of the channel, if the channel breaks, 10K is not unexpected and we can see the price even on 11K this time as I explained it on my new analysis I provided here today.

BTC/USDT 4H
https://i.imgur.com/cDYon2O.png

The previous analyse in 14th July is still valid. But, in order to update the analysis the explain it better there are two possible scenarios:
1. Breaking the downward trend line, resistance area on 9200-9250 and moving toward 9400. But, here you should know the 9400 resistance is important resistance, I expect higher prices as 9700-9950 after breaking this resistance area in a sharp movement.

2. Loss of support area 9020-9060 and trend line, here we expect the price to move lower to 8600-8700 or even 8100. In this case, if the price get enough support under 9020-9060 and closes a few candles under this area and If it does not stabilize below area there is still a possibility for the price to move toward 9400.

According to my personal strategy and weakly timeframe , I believe is the second scenario and It is possible to lose this support area at any time.

BTC/USDT 30M
https://i.imgur.com/abJVUKs.jpg

As you can see on the chart, In short time-frames, Bitcoin is currently ascending and moving on the ascending channel to 12000usd resistance area once again. Also, we do have the parabolic sar, Ichi support area and channel floor support. That's why currently the expect to see the price rise to the resistance area.

BTC/USDT 4H
https://i.imgur.com/z438dop.jpg

On the chart above, you can see the price react on 12000usd. Previously, after each time reaching this area we saw the price falling to the channel floor. On this time frame the 12000usd area can not be ignored at all. If the price breaks this area stabilized, bitcoin's next targets on weekly time-frame can be on 13K and 14.5K.

The daily Bollinger Bands are squeezing again. It's gearing up for another test of $12K from the look of things. The question is whether it ends as a judas swing (wick above the Aug 2nd high before failing) or a true range expansion.

We can see examples of both scenarios in April and May:

https://i.imgur.com/Fu1Mdxz.png

I see no judas swing here. Unless bears sell this down hard in the next few hours so it closes as a wick through the upper band, it's a fairly obvious upside range expansion:

https://i.imgur.com/AbAK0cA.png

Testing the June 2019 high looks very possible from here. And once that breaks, there are no convincing bearish scenarios left.

BTC/USDT 4H
https://i.imgur.com/53CWuCK.png

Since I had some personal issues please accept my apologies for the delay.
The selling pressure is very high right now. I expect the price to fall down to the 10520 and then be rejected slightly higher. As long as the daily candlestick does not close below the range of 11400 the targets are 13000 and 13800. If the price comes below 14000 and stabilizes, we can have a the downtrend situation for bitcoin to 9800 and 8200. Also, There CME gap around 9600, where Bitcoin is usually interested in filling the gap with sharp movements. So we wait for the reaction to the support line 10400 to determine the mid-term movement of bitcoin.

BTC/USDT 4H
https://i.imgur.com/GuMvctP.jpg

Sales and supply volume is still very high. According to the chart shown above, I expect correction to the price floor of the green channel. Then we will see how the price will react to the channel floor. In case of supporting the price, there is a probability of pullback to 10400-10500 and in case of losing and breaking the support area at 9800 we can expect to see bitcoin at 9400.

Let's hope that price doesn't go to 9400 because that is the level we were before all of the increases happened and we all know what that entails. It was literally right after we moved from $7k levels (and even $4-5k levels before that) so if the price goes down to 9400 that basically tells us that it is at a risk of going under $9k as well, it is not looking good at that point.

However if we could stay above 10500 levels, that also means that we are not willing to drop yet and the pressure could be too high for the seller side. Hopefully it wouldn't be a long term thing and we would go up because I did waited around to sell my bitcoin (bought at $6.5k so no problem) to sell at 2x on $13k but it never reached there, now I am feeling a bit regret that I didn't get out quick enough.

Ultimately, you seem to be both a newbie and overinvested that you are so nervous about price drops and/or that you did not cash out some of your apparently overinvested status.

If you hold for the long term then you can just cash out a bit here and there along the way and not worry about it.  One of the problems is to overinvest, which merely causes you to get nervous.

Seems to me that 4 years from now, the price is much likely to be higher rather than lower than our current price, even likely that there will be some decent price appreciation along the way, even though we may have ups and downs along the way, but also seems to be a better place to hold 1% to 10% (or even more) of your investment value rather than in traditional investments... talking longer time horizon.

In other words, if BTC prices go down from here, either holding or buying more seems to be the more prudent approach.

Of course, holding in the event that you are over invested, or buying more in the event that you have not over invested.

Even though it is NOT a good time to sell, if you are nervous, of course you could still shave a bit off of your overinvested amount in order to hedge in the event that BTC prices go down rather than up.

One of the tricks of gaining and maintaining a BTC position is to be both psychologically and financially prepared for price moves in either direction - because sometimes the price direction can end up going against you, at least in the short term.