Bitcoin Forum

https://i.ibb.co/bHmpMhj/2020-02-27-0831.png


Simple but powerful chart.

Quite straightforward, the resistance at 10.5k was very well known and it is pretty clear this resistance is too strong now. This 10.5k is the price we needed to break to obtain a higher high and reverse the trend. We have been in this downtrend for about 7 months.
We've been rejected at 10.5k several times, that's why the downtrend is still alive and kicking.

Is the corona virus causing this? Absolutely not. Absolutely not. Every day of the year there will be some types of news, but remember the answers are always in the charts.

By the way, the fear index is at 41 right now which not a high level, that's why there should be more blood soon (watch out for 7.5k first).

The truth is: the chart above shows the trend that has been playing out since December 2017. We have a rejection in June 2019 at 14k. And the last bearish engulfing weekly candle (less than a day ago) clearly confirms the trend.


Congrats to those who bought at 6.5k by the way, very nice profit up to 10.5k. Now 2020 will be very bad for the bulls (very good for the bears). You think the halving will have any effect? Dream on my friends...


I am making the prediction here than 2020 December 31th will see a Bitcoin price under 6k.

That trend line is drawn pretty subjectively. Drawn from the wicks, we never even got close to it. We came about ~$1,400 short.

I agree there were plenty of reasons why we stopped at $10,500 though, starting with this one:


Sentiment too. The Fear & Greed index was getting greedy. Check out Bitmex open interest for the past 1.5 months too.

https://i.imgur.com/nFXPNDM.png

It needed to take a breather. The market likes to punish both bears and bulls, even if the prevailing trend is upwards.

You interpret this short term downtrend as a sign of a longer term bear market. That's where we disagree. I see it as nothing more than a short term correction to the December-February uptrend.


It's actually in the 30s now.

I guess we read it differently. Since the weekly and monthly trends are so bullish, I view this as a short term contrarian indicator. Right now, I think shorts are getting trapped and weak hands are getting shaken out before higher prices.

Someone said bearish? Where? You guys really need to zoom out sometimes :)

https://i.imgur.com/9RsbOuu.png


Agree. You can proof everyhting if you drow lines like Stevie Wonder.

I agree with OP in regards to how the price isn't related to coronavirus. But i disagree on how it's all in the charts. Charts only show past data, and at best a current ticker. There's no way to forecast prices with accuracy simply from that. In fact, many argue that price forecasting isn't possible in general and especially with how bitcoin is unregulated, its markets are purely responding to demand and supply...

Corona virus, at the opposite, will make people very sceptical about papers, gold and every materials, so they will push them to use non-physic money including bitcoin. Actual price drop is related to traders trying to grab some profit from the high price lately..

I am quoting your thread here so you cannot deny that you predicted that Bitcoin price will go down to under $6 k probably one of the weirdest prediction, just when the halving is coming when everybody are predicting moon and lambo for Bitcoin I don't know your expertise but I just rely on history and common sense, no chart really.

What???So the charts are some kind of oracle and whoever reads them will know the future price trends?
Then how come all the technical analysts aren't millionaires yet?Maybe reading the charts is too difficult.
The news are what causes the price and chart movements.And yes,the panic around the coronavirus has influence over the bitcoin price.It already has influence over the stock prices for sure.
The coronavirus impact over the global economy will grow even further.
Your logic is completely wrong.

There's nothing we can do to control over this scenario against corona virus, and it became an epidemic disease all over the country of china and the neighboring countries. Panic caused a lot of troubles, and the people on the affected countries will eventually pull down their asset for personal consumption without considering the loss. What's important is their lives in behalf of an asset.

Draw a line underneath aswell (on log scale), and you got yourself a squeezing wedge on macro level! And when the price reaches the tip area somewhere after the halving it will most likely break to the upside.

Whenever I come across posts like; 'this is why the market is bearish' or 'what would cause a bull run' I always read with lots of skepticism. The factors that control the market and direct it's movement is largely unknown, and the use of technical analysis or any other form of chart is more of a gamble than an actual indication of the market movement.

Fundamental analysis is a more useful tool in my opinion as it affects real world situation and it's effects can be felt. The corona virus is an example, crisis in some country or another.
Although, I don't think the virus has much of an impact on the current market trend. I also don't think that we have been in a bearish trend for the last couple of months.

I totaly agree that price of Bitcoin isn't related to corona virus as some claim, as as it wasn't related with Valentine's day, Christmas or anything similar.
Techical data and charts can be useful and it's good to.have the insight in the price movements  in the past. However, only that can't be used for prediction of further situations because price of Bitcoin is complex, defined by supply and demand but also some factors outside market.

Coronavirus will be good for bitcoin as long as the truth about it wont come out, and people buy the panic promoted by the media. With the avoidance of paper money and even debit cards, some people might run to crypto, injecting new money into it.

Problem is, the lesser whales will keep gambling with futures, trying to push the price down, like the greedy bears they are.

I'd say it's the opposite - right now technical analysis aka speculation is a better tool than fundamental analysis, because Bitcoin doesn't have established and strong fundamentals - we have so much market data, and there's still no clear connection between world events and Bitcoin price.

In this particular case, coronavirus seems like such a weak reason for a price drop, since it doesn't affect Bitcoin directly. The explanation of a correction and failure to break important resistance level makes much more sense than that.

The truth is BTC doesn't even have "fundamentals" in the way stocks do. Stocks have hard fundamental data like earnings growth, sector market share, P/E ratio, etc. that translates to fairly predictable returns. With Bitcoin, what do we have? Pseudonymous blockchain data, fake volume BTC exchanges, skewed public surveys? :D

The fundamentals are always going to be way murkier than stocks, especially stocks on the blue chip end of things. TA is king.

Pushing the price a little bit down in the actual world crisis is in fact good.
Now we have a profitable coin, that has actually a "low" price and this price will increase soon especially after the halving + people are getting afraid from physical materials = more people joining the wave  ;)

I don't really understand why the corona virus is being attach to the price of crypto?
Why would the price of crypto drops down because of it?
It doesn't have any connection in crypto currency so why would we blame it for the price drop?

That resistance point will eventually be broken, all the resistance points are easily broken when enough people want it broken as well. We had a very strong $9.2k resistance as well that we broke through not only because people actually bought bitcoin at those prices but also because people actually removed their orders from those prices to make the wall a lot smaller to break as well.

So, when we reach $10.5k once again (and we will reach that eventually, we just don't know when) we will see that not only people will buy from those prices to break down the wall but we will see the wall get smaller as well. It will just take some time and it will probably require couple of tries before we can actually go above that price. And I totally agree that it has nothing to do with corona at all.

I think that is because bitcoin is about the people, the hodlers. If the hodlers keep falling sick and not able to be active to buy and sell which would increase trade volume etc, that could be a logical reason IMO .

That chart is anything but "powerful".  You picked two arbitrary points and drew a straight line between them and drew a conclusion from that.  That's ridiculous.  I could just as easily show you why bitcoin's bull run isn't finished yet by drawing a straight line from the very beginning of that chart (in 2017) to the present--and my line would be equally as silly.

OP, if you really think bitcoin is headed lower, are you putting your money where your mouth is and shorting it?  How confident are you in that line you drew?

Hodlers sit on their chair or sofa staring at the screen all day to see if Bitcoin finally surpassed that $100,000 level. They're hardly buying even though many of them are loudly presenting themselves as "dip buyers". It's just the same nonsense as we have always had. Very retarded bull narrative. I'm confident that most of these "hodlers" don't hold many coins to begin with.

Most of the people wishing for $100,000 only do that because they know that they need such insane valuations to see their holdings grow in value much enough. You won't be getting rich with a few tenths of a whole coin, neither with a whole coin which many can't afford nowadays.

In the end, it doesn't matter how many times we go through these corrections, people even if they have been here for a couple of years never get used to them. They always catch them by surprise.

LOL, you have no ideas what is ahead when recession kick in.  Because the market is still bearish you say. LOL!

That's why there should be a distinction between a holder (ie, a investor which is not in day trade) and a hodler (hopium dealer who treat bitcoin as a religion).

As of now, I have some doubts bitcoin will ever reach $100k one day. There is no bull market since 2017, its only bear market and bull traps all along. If we have a bull market after the halving, maybe we reach $40k at least, in the end of 2021.

There is no such thing as "short term bull market". A bull market is characterized by ATHs. If there is no ATH, then there is no bull market, but a recovery. If the recovery takes too long and is characterized by fake rallies and bull traps, then there is manipulation, and FA is busted. So you have a no-mans-land scenario, where anything can happen.

Bitcoin couldn't be associated to any religion or any form of beliefs that provide every persons will and fortune. The doubts of everyone can be in thrilling scenario, which will influence a lot of emotion particular on those different categories you've mentioned here. The fake rallies and bull traps would stressed out upon realizing their previous mistakes which kept on raging in every occurrence.

This is how I see it and that's why I like your interpretation.

You can see this market mood even in the forum posts when people start to make topics about predictions of crazy analysts like Tom Lee and asking if we will break 20 thousand before the halving, which is a lottle more than 2 months from now. When there's too many leveraged long and too many newbies ready to buy at 10 thousand when a few months ago nobody wanted to buy at 5 you know that it will have to correct.

OP sees Bitcoin scoring a lower high, I see a higher low because it will take a real worldwide epidemic for us to go below 6 thousand now and if we won't it's going to be another higher low following a pattern that started at 3100 USD.

So you say that most bitcoin people do resides on China? If we do try to look up on the number of cases on particular country then China is on the top but i dont really see the correlation on why an outbreak would heavily impact the crypto market yet traders or entire crypto community doesnt only focused on one place which means buying and selling activity is still there.Its not bad on tagging events on particular markets
yet we know that sentiments can possibly or not affect the situation.Sometimes its just people normal reaction or panic on what made these presumptions.

Consider that investors are betting the Fed will cut interest rates so are buying T bonds rather than bitcoin as they expect returns to be higher with bonds than bitcoin this year. Bonds rather than bitcoin may be the safe haven during this crisis but data is limited let's see where bitcoin price is a month from now.

I would love to dream on like having profits like of 2017, unfortunately it's not that going to happen this time because of several problems that hinders the growth of crypto economy. If that's what you're featuring this coming December 2020, that would be disgusting for all holders and investors.
People nowadays were bombarded with the news and panic made them worried. The price of bitcoin hasn't recovered yet even though corona virus outbreak hasn't yet happening, first quarter of 2019.

Oversold and Overbought do not bring too much to the table when we are talking about bitcoin because in the end when the price continues like this for a long time it becomes the norm for the whole currency. It should matter and in all other stuff it does matter but when it comes to bitcoin there is really  nothing normal about it :D.

So, oversold or overbought is just telling people "you are making a mistake" but they do not care about it at all. Not much we can do about if they want to make a mistake, in the end it is their decision. I personally fear these times and try to wait for the bottom and start buying when I feel like it reached the bottom and people stopped selling so much.

The virus doesn't really have nothing to do with the rise and fall of the value of Bitcoin or other crypto currency in the market, we could only relate the cause of it from the supply and demand of the coin. Regarding with Bitcoin falling continuously into a bearish market, I could say that it has only a little possibility because, the upcoming halving event will ultimately change the course of the standing of Bitcoin on the market. As the supply of Bitcoin gradually decreases, the demand will oppositely increase day by day that will surely impact the price of the coin. That is why I don't believe that the price of Bitcoin will continue to dump but instead, I think we should be ready and have faith in it and on the Bull run possibility.

Resistance resistance blah blah. TA's keep indicating resistance levels to be broken through before going down a trend and yet once that level has been broken, they start again with the " but oh, the resistance level of $XXXX need to be broken as well before the trend". Endless cycle tbh. And they wouldn't even suffer since if it did break, they'd just say that A trend is coming, and if a trend didn't come, they'd just go back to "it failed to break through the resistance" again and again.

downtrend of 7 months? hmm where? I'm pretty sure September started with $7k and considering the $8k we have right now, I'm pretty sure there's no downtrend what so ever. The downtrend was when the price hit $14k then went down to the $7k, but currently bearish factors have already stopped and if you look at it in a wide perspective, you could say that it's just a sideways movement with a span of 3-4 months.

People only needs the price to move up and up without any downwards movement. If we think in this way, then there are very few bullish periods. Also people forget that price went from 3k to 14K was one bullish trend. Again price movement from 7K to 10500 was another bullish period. I am sure the price will bounce back from 6500$ and move towards 14K near the halving.

That is, if ever the virus would be worse but the issue is abit cooled down at this moment. How can I say? The moment when the issue came in tension, it was all over news channels, which is somewhat lessen at tbe moment. I am not saying that it is being fully controlled, in fact the cases are still getting bigger, but the fact that it quite cool down, there is a possibility that the issue will be fully in control before this year end. And I do think that it did not highly affect the market price of cryptos to why some people think that the price is bearish, and same thing that it won't boost the market price, reality check, wherein at this point it is not going down that much, more like being stable at a certain market price.

People are creating FUDs corona virus is nothing to do with the downfall of BTC coins, it failed to serve as a store value where most of them believe it's should be the main cause. I agree there will be a slighty tension due to the virus the transactions would have not happened and it would have drastically changed some value but this doesn't mean this could be the main reason for the fatal.

[/quote]I have already a pending bet with a member of this forum. The stake is 0.05 BTC that's who confident I am. 2020 is a bearish year, 2021 not sure yet but it depends how low you can buy. My bet (extremely confident) is Bitcoin will stay below 19k for the whole year until end of 2021.

About the first part of your post, not sure if you noticed but there are 3 points, not 2. Please look again before posting.



Hopefully you will wake up when Bitcoin goes below 6.4k, which will happen this year. Below 6.4k means the next major support is around 3.Xk.

Support always changes. I am not going to have any majoe panic selling mode just because some are doing it. Like other's said. The two point line is very subjective anyone can put up some words on it. I do hope you are nor creating something bearish. Many are still believe that the market can somehow tie up the price before halving.

Below 6.4k isnt impossible but also the reverse isnt too. As we already reached 10.5k early this year.

A surprising day, but a good day for those who sold earlier.

The unusual was we had a very good January and also a very good February, quite a rare sight in the Bitcoin world (January has traditionally been a very poor month for bulls).

Back on topic: support at 6.4k officially broken I am afraid.


Next move? https://forum-images.hardware.fr/images/perso/9/360perfect.gif

This. Still 15x in profit  8)

Relax it's bitcoin.... it will go up... bitcoin is deflationary

All markets worldwide are crashing badly right now, some of it the worst for decades. That virus is having a huge underestimated impact, in addition to lockdown in some places, some people avoiding to buy anything online, big whales taking some profit and other people trying to get some FIAT liquidity... It is very complex.
I see that a drop in the price is always profitable so people can purchase at a lower rate before the halving and the recovery of the markets after few weeks

Information from the charts can be taken into account, but not guided by them. Cryptocurrency basically does not lend itself to any charts. Almost always, according to the schedules, we expect one thing, but in practice, something completely different happens.
The fall of the cryptocurrency market, I think, is because people now need cash to prepare for protection against coronavirus. I don’t think it will last long. The coronavirus will soon be defeated and the cryptocurrency market will grow further, taking into account the division of bitcoin in half.