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Title: Cup and handle scenario not playing out Post by: Bossian on March 08, 2020, 03:33:56 PM Hi folks,
The cup and handle scenario was still a possibility, however the handle should have remained at 8.7k area and not below. In the cup and handle analysis, the dump forming the handle should not be greater than 30%, hence the circa 8.7k price. Now that Bitcoin price is at 8.4k there is no reason to see the cup and handle scenario play out. I am confident we will see 8k soon. My opinion and not financial advice 8) Title: Re: Cup and handle scenario not playing out Post by: NeuroticFish on March 08, 2020, 07:23:01 PM I am also surprised by the current turn of events (price) - although I have to admit I am not great at TA. But everywhere I've been reading I was expecting to see 9500+, not falling back towards 8000.
I want to remind though that week-ends tend to behave "strangely" and we should wait for week days in order to predict anything realistically. (I don't say you are wrong about the 8k prediction, I just say that week-ends may be "from another world"). Title: Re: Cup and handle scenario not playing out Post by: exstasie on March 08, 2020, 08:45:43 PM Hi folks, The cup and handle scenario was still a possibility, however the handle should have remained at 8.7k area and not below. In the cup and handle analysis, the dump forming the handle should not be greater than 30%, hence the circa 8.7k price. Yup, the handle is supposed to stay in the upper third or so of the cup. The current chart is no longer an ideal example. However sometimes this happens: (https://school.stockcharts.com/doku.php?id=chart_analysis:chart_patterns:cup_with_handle_continuation) Quote A cup retracement of 62% may not fit the pattern requirements, but a particular stock's pattern may still capture the essence of the Cup with Handle. https://school.stockcharts.com/lib/exe/fetch.php?media=chart_analysis:chart_patterns:cup_with_handle_continuation:cuphandle-emc.png Now that Bitcoin price is at 8.4k there is no reason to see the cup and handle scenario play out. I am confident we will see 8k soon. My opinion and not financial advice 8) $8K is the 62% Fibonacci retracement so it's a reasonable target now that the $8,400 low has been broken. Title: Re: Cup and handle scenario not playing out Post by: Bossian on March 09, 2020, 05:49:56 AM Didn't expect it to be that quick. We are already below 8k. That was a quick winning trade.
Next: probably 7.2k maybe a bounce before but confident we see 7.2 and if below the support is still at 6.4 but I don't think it will hold forever. 2020 is certainly a bear year with 5k in sight. Title: Re: Cup and handle scenario not playing out Post by: exstasie on March 09, 2020, 11:04:25 AM 2020 is certainly a bear year with 5k in sight. It sure seems like the bears are getting greedy. Sentiment check..... Fear & Greed Index = 17. "Extreme Fear." https://i.imgur.com/dx6eBkK.png The long vs. short ratio on Bitfinex is reaching historically interesting levels. The last time we saw a spread like this, the market was beginning to bottom out in November 2019. Longs have been flushed out nonstop for several weeks running. Meanwhile shorts have more than doubled in the past 2 days. When will the tide turn and the pendulum swing back? https://i.imgur.com/3UkXzoQ.png Title: Re: Cup and handle scenario not playing out Post by: Bossian on March 12, 2020, 12:55:06 PM 2020 is certainly a bear year with 5k in sight. It sure seems like the bears are getting greedy. Sentiment check..... Fear & Greed Index = 17. "Extreme Fear." https://i.imgur.com/dx6eBkK.png The long vs. short ratio on Bitfinex is reaching historically interesting levels. The last time we saw a spread like this, the market was beginning to bottom out in November 2019. Longs have been flushed out nonstop for several weeks running. Meanwhile shorts have more than doubled in the past 2 days. When will the tide turn and the pendulum swing back? https://i.imgur.com/3UkXzoQ.png I like your thinking about the Fear Index and Greed Index. For those who are not into charts, it is a very simplistic, yet often effective way to make profits. This is of course useful for middle term / long term targets (swing trading or long term investment). |
