Bitcoin Forum

EDIT:

Recap on BTC price history.

A news story claiming quantum breakthrough was published on september 20th, 2019: https://www.ft.com/content/b9bb4e54-dbc1-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17 (https://www.ft.com/content/b9bb4e54-dbc1-11e9-8f9b-77216ebe1f17)

The coinciding decline in BTC price:

https://i.imgur.com/hF7OduG.jpg

A news story claiming quantum breakthrough was published on march 11th, 2020:  https://phys.org/news/2020-03-year-old-puzzle-quantum-breakthrough.html (https://phys.org/news/2020-03-year-old-puzzle-quantum-breakthrough.html)

The coinciding drop:

https://i.imgur.com/ZDohzyg.jpg


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This news story was published on march 12th 2020. (march 11th** see edit below) The day of our latest downtrend spike. The value of bitcoin declines whenever a "quantum computer breakthrough" news story is published. Anyone that cares to put this to the test can lookup the publishing date of any recent news story announcing a "breakthrough" in quantum computers. There will be a correlation with a decline in BTC price. The theory behind it being quantum computer breakthroughs carrying a potential to defeat the encryption standards technologies like bitcoin are built upon.

That said I suspect scientific claims published in this article to later be discredited and proven false in the future. A normal and typical trend for a high percentage of questionable breakthroughs published in science journals today. The results of which often cannot be reproduced.

This amounts to nothing more than market manipulation and smokescreens imo.


EDIT:  CORRECTION.

The first publishing of this story was on march 11th, 2020 here:  https://phys.org/news/2020-03-year-old-puzzle-quantum-breakthrough.html (https://phys.org/news/2020-03-year-old-puzzle-quantum-breakthrough.html)

I wonder what sort of equipment you'd use to check there isn't a magnetic field thst wouldn't itself create aagnetic field 😲...

Itll be interesting if the guy in the office next door accidentally disrupted their experiment by doing something with fields the just happened to oscillate in the same direction... 🤣

I do think the nsa should hurry up on that front, or maybe someone like semantec and cloud flare could bother to make a partnership of a secure signature algorithm...

At the moment, we don't really have an algorithm to become the defacto standard. I've just heard people pick favourites.

I think general uncertainty on the markets due to a certain pandemic is more likely to blame than anything quantum related.

You know what also happened during the day of the big red spike? The US closing their borders to Europe.

I think that almost no one knew about this news in the day of drop. And this is still not a game changer article for so big drop

I doubt mate! A general uncertainty within the common market usually should lead to a positive spike in crypto market. Because crypto assets are generally seen as a alternate market where people invest during the uncertain times. It is very similar to the gold market at large!

Also crypto should not be affected by the closing of any boarded. It's a truly global currency which defeats the geographical borders and its related restrictions. All you need is a laptop and an internet connection to get associated with crypto market from any corner of the world. You don't really require a KYC to prove your nationality to crypto market. So crypto market is usually immune to the such kind of things.

I believe, the downturn happened due to a huge sell-off worth 110 million USD from Plus Token owners. That was reported in several crypto related news websites few days ago. Seems more convincing!

Bitcoin acting as a viable hedge in times of economic crisis is only an assumption so far. Sure, Bitcoin has a low correlation to classical markets and could behave like gold during a bear market.

But we don't know that yet because there hasn't been a recession since Bitcoin's inception.

People take higher risks in bull markets. But in times of crisis we see people fleeing from high risk assets (eg. stocks, especially small caps) to what is perceived as safe havens (eg. gold). We're about to witness whether Bitcoin falls in the first or the latter category. Whether it makes sense that closing geographical borders affect a purely digital asset is unfortunately rather irrelevant in this case, as the market is rarely rational, especially in the short term.

this is the conclusion of the article:


what does this mean in terms of qubit processing? what real applications does this have? does this actually represent a threat to bitcoin and other encrypted protocols?

I edited OP to better illustrate evidence for claims.

 :)


Good question. Maybe one of the reasons the news story hasn't been widely circulated is it will fail to hold up under scrutiny if subject to peer review. That's what I would expect although I can't claim to have the physics background to put everything into perspective the way it should.


This is an example of why encryption algorithms developed by intelligence agencies should NEVER be utilized if security is the goal.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/national-security/cia-crypto-encryption-machines-espionage/ (https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/national-security/cia-crypto-encryption-machines-espionage/)


It has been said russia and singapore are having success keeping the virus contained. Thanks to their closed border policy. If that is true, shouldn't bitcoin's price have risen after the united states closed their borders as well. As we are now seeing canada and other nations follow suit in limiting travel and closing borders.


Quantum computing is no nearer to progressing from a vaporware pipe dream to reality, in my opinion. I think these news stories are simply a method of helping to conceal anti bitcoin market manipulation being orchestrated by banking cartels and their associates.

One core foundation of crypto could be the encryption standards upon which it is built. It loosely follows that developments which threaten that core foundation might have negative effects on bitcoin price. But I think everyone knows that shouldn't naturally happen to such a significant degree without a better proof of concept.

Market manipulation is my best guess. Although I can't claim to have hard evidence.

I am with this reason rather than this quantum thing. The pandemic is affecting the global population and almost all the businesses. Have you seen in your lifetime countries after countries closing their borders to everyone? I guess this is your first time to witness such event. So this I think is the major reason of bitcoin's latest crash.

Now take all reports about quantum computers breakthroughs over the last few years - I'm sure there's more than these two, and I'm sure most of them didn't cause any significant price reaction, and probably some of them were more significant that this last one that supposedly crashed the market. Because if it was like you say, then Bitcoin would have these 30-50% crashes many times a year.

I think it's clear to everyone that the stock market crash triggered Bitcoin's crash, especially since the same happened with gold and other markets.

Many analysis came and claim the reason why bitcoin crash and the closer one is Corona. I respect your opinion but your opinion similar with history will repeat again and whales use it to change market direction. In general situation we call it manipulation, that's really bad. I prefer say global economy use Corona issue to protect currency and commodity against bitcoin domination. Every country know how to deal Corona but they let it happen to press bitcoin value, if they don't do it currency will follow bitcoin, that's a mistake.

Yeah no one wants the guys working on an innovative project to succeed if it means they rank faster 🤣.

And I do doubt the quality of a CIA report into itself. Its not like an unbiased secondary agency went in to check the information they managed to take...

I've also been having to read up on pre-80s encryption with LCG used at IBM and it was very easy to crack...
There still has been no progress by the bitcoin devs to even suggest what quantum proof algo they'll likely use...

Everyone fears that quantum computers could cause the bitcoin blockchain to be ruined and someone to be able to brute force their way into anything they want but we are forgetting one simple truth, it is not just for the bad, it is for the good as well.

If quantum computing ever becomes slightly more common everywhere in the world, not saying we will all use quantum computing at our homes or anything but just a bit more common, we would honestly have people who defend bitcoin as well with it and not just trying to destroy.

Plus, if a person ruins blockchain and steals money, that would kind of mean end of bitcoin as well if they are successful and there are no defenders, which means people would sell and that person would get nothing, in the end there is no winning scenario for quantum to be used to do whatever you want in crypto world, you either get a defender and fail, or you succeed but still worthless because of it.

Good shot on trying to explain the recent crash.
However, i think that the reason is pretty much simple. The pandemic trend of coronavirus is to be blamed as all the financial markets are being affected by it. The cryptocurrency markets are on the same category such as the financial markets so they follow the same trends (ups and downs).

I dont know on what world are you living. On planet Earth everyone talks about deadly covid19 virus. Where we need to self isolate and with that economic activity decreases a lot. Covid19 is a sole reason why we have sub $10000 Bitcoin right now. And it will keep Bitcoin under $10000 for many more months.

WHO declares COVID-19 as pandemic on world level at 11 March, oil is go down 20%, and BTC is drop like a rock from almost $8000 to $4800 on March 12 followed by BitMEX forced liquidation of $700 million in just 15 minutes. It's not difficult to connect the dots, the picture is pretty clear for anyone who wants to see things realistically.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/11/who-declares-the-coronavirus-outbreak-a-global-pandemic.html
https://oilprice.com/oil-price-charts
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/
https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5232757.msg54026737#msg54026737

Quantum computer? How about the dip in the stock market then? I understand people want to see Bitcoin detached from the mainstream financial cycle, but the evidence says otherwise. If the economy is terrible, the Bitcoin price will go down.

Yes that's right, "cryptocurrency is a safe asset if there is a global economic crisis" that's just an assumption. I totally agree with you sir. I don't know why but in reality the cryptocurrency market is unpredictable, a lot of manipulation. so we could say, "whether the crypto assets are safe from the effects of the global crisis?"

The crypo market is full of manipulation, making conspiracies that link many fields, events and times. but is it really true? those are assumptions.

Human lives are in danger due to the deadly virus and cities are locked up due to it, its like from the zombie movie scene. I would leave anything valuable behind and sell some of my BTCs if it saves my life and my kids in the next months.

Its the food and medication preparation for the next few months that I would be worrying and forget about that quantum and qubits since they have nothing to do with how I can be prepared and I think traders in stock market thought the same thing before the zombies come.  No wonder the markets crash. Those who dumped didn't think of quantum computing.

https://i.imgur.com/1VRkekT.jpg

we will indeed continue to disagree about what causes the price of Bitcoin Crash, but there is nothing wrong with analysis and I appreciate the OP analysis...

That is indeed a viable reason as we are yet to undergo a major recession after the inception of BTCitcoin but we have to accept the fact that there are many major financial institutions invested in BTCitcoin and if there is a correlation between the major economic markets and the BTCitcoin market when the major markets are falling it is because of the influence of these financial fund houses as they will cash out during crisis and may be so is the reason the BTCitcoin market fell during these times.

It's told repeatedly that bitcoin and the pandemic that is happening has no correlation at all. Despite the virus, the price even reached $10K and it dropped not directly because of the virus but there are other things that happened. I think this is the reason why bitcoin dropped,  (https://www.cryptopolitan.com/the-real-reason-behind-bitcoin-price-drop/)

I have this feeling and doubt that the reason why the Bitcoin has crashed lately is that because whales are aware that people would panic because of the Novel Corona Virus-19. And will result in them withdrawing all their assets in the cryptocurrency space. All cities lockdown it means no work no pay.

Whales did it first, they released all their assets. So that their assets are safe from the panic selling of the herd. They took advantage of it since the moment they realized the situation. It might be early for them but early is better than regret late. I know a lot of whales who did that.

Luckily, Bitcoin is now showing a small resistance.

It's a big possibilities why the market is falling as those big bag holders who are also monitoring the financial market are causing this fall. They're good in analyzing the situation and they are moving according to how they will benefit more. Whatever you think about this situation better to go deeper and observe your next movement, decide once you are convince with your position.

You have the point with me. In this situation of pandemic spreading, no many people care about crypto exchanging. Every investors just know that now is not time to exchange.

The Cryptocurrency market has gained more than 19% in the last 24 hours..  I personally initially thought that what made the price of Bitcoin Crash like a few days ago was due to the Covid-19 issue, but the @OP analysis is very good so it is most likely the real cause of the price of Bitcoin Crash..

besides having a strong analysis, they also have the capital to move prices, so that the traps they make can have a panic effect on many investors, thereby adding power to realize their dreams. it's hard to guess them. therefore we must understand non-technical analysis like this

I do think the reason behind bitcoin's crash is , the Corona virus , since people are in quarantine , loosing their jobs , the only thing left there is their investments , their assets do people are encashing to pay for their groceries , medical expenses and other stuff , the jobs are not even paying them anything and the government is also doing their best ( only some governmental bodies ) .
Therefore I do think the crash is because of this .
Not because of any other Event ..
It just makes sense.

I don’t know for sure, and I don’t really think you’re right. If you check your first picture the price of Bitcoin was already going down before the date you marked; it reached the peak around July and then started to fluctuate downwards before reaching the date you marked.

So the way I see it, maybe that was just a coincidence that took place and not really the reason that the price of Bitcoin dropped. Even if that time comes I believe there will always be a way that one can protect his or her self from whatever challenge the quantum computing poses to the crypto community. For now, I’d say that there are more to this fall than what you have here.

This is one theory as well, even prior to the big dump that we have seen.


https://www.coindesk.com/whale-watching-exchange-data-contained-early-warning-of-thursdays-bitcoin-dump

So even prior to the "quantum discovery" in March 11, as the article suggested, there seems to be a large movement of BTC prior to the collapse on March 11/12 pulling the price to the high $3'ish. So probably manipulation in light of the corona virus scare.

The declines and peaks are correlated with the publication of other news stories. Winklevoss ETF proposals being rejected by the SEC resulted in price declines. News stories claiming tether market manipulation: price decline. With spikes in BTC value sometimes occurring when positive news relating to bitcoin are published.

There is a strange trend in crypto markets where positive news stories are often ignored. while negative stories relating to vaporware quantum computer developments with no proof of concept carry an exaggerated influence on markets. The same precedent could apply to US stocks where markets continued to trend upwards for nearly a week after news first arose of severe production showdowns in china.

Buying, selling and trading aren't reflecting fundamental market mechanis. The way classic analysis says it should.

Quite right, as soon as the start of Corona virus outbreak, the price or the standing of Bitcoin have decreased massively with just a short amount of time. The pandemic affected a lot the economic status of certain countries that have cases of the ncov-19.

But, these days prove to be good for the standing of Bitcoin because, its price is gradually recovering from the dump that have gone down to a $3,500+ value to $6,500+ in the present with a short amount of time. This could be a sign for a significant development for all the stock investments in the market.

It may be difficult to justify the fact,  and there is no solid evidence of crash including the sudden decline of bitcoin, perhaps coronavirus is the most expected caused of global economic crisis,  and the exchange was collapsing due to panic sales that have occurred in the traditional market, I think because of this, all side of the country with the competition of crypto has dropped,  and the other investors have been disappointed.

What is happening today in every country because of the coronavirus is quite expected, since any quarantine and any restrictions affect both small and medium-sized businesses, and it is also very difficult to display on large businesses.  Today, every person begins to feel financial starvation due to lack of work, because not only in countries but also in every city quarantine has been introduced.  Because of this, in any case, the expected crisis will be due to the crown of the virus, but I very much hope that people who are isolated at home due to quarantine have much more time to learn as much as possible about cryptocurrency and think about alternative ones.  sources of income using the cryptocurrency market.  this in turn can improve the situation.

This is a interesting insight on bitcoin crash but I think this breakthrough still needs more solid evidence to be considered for a factor, there are quiet a lot of factors for the crash and some point the roots to the pandemic, this is a proof that is tested for a long time in many economic models.

op provided some proofs on the first page and theres alot of it imo  .

that would be enough for me convince that the crash was caused of it and not the other way around but many people find it too technical , they might not understand it properly so they find other reasons that are easily understandable like this one ( the covid virus )  .  

quantom thingy have been discussed many times before and many people already speculate it that it can affect the performance of btc  .

Bad situation around the world and many countries still get cases with Corona virus make us faced with bitcoin in lower price, I don't know details why bitcoin crash with lower price and why many people sell bitcoin in cheap and looks panic for selling, why not holding several days later and see how bitcoin will going up.

its another reasons but the main reasons is the plus token scam. Which dumped morethan 20k btc  + Fud made by the crisis we have in corona virus . If the price continue to decline then the crisis we have now is the reason now.

I’m already getting tired of all these. The truth is that none of you even knows why the cryptocurrency market fell.
The only true reason which is believable is that Bitcoin plummeting to a low price was caused by the Covid-19 outbreak. This was the same thing that the stock market faced, so this is the only thing that is likely to be true. I don’t even believe what you have said , or maybe there is the possibility that this also contributed to the fall.

I have seen other people that gave different reasons as to why Bitcoin price fell to a low price, but I’m not sure if any of these are accurate; if they are, the pandemic is the main thing and these ones are just some other factors that contributed to it.

I think I'll try to explain most of the larger, most recent, bitcoin pricce increases/decreases with a chart infographic, later. Bitcoin's price moves were influenced by news stories, if I'm remembering right. Its a question of which ones were responsible.

Natural market mechanics could take a distant back seat there. As far as market price movements go.


There is one guaranteed method to describe the fall of markets.   :)

They occur when selling volume > buying volume, by disproportionate amounts.

When there are significantly more sellers than buyers: markets crash. The inverse opposite is also true.

There will always be this distracting news in the market when the space pump or dumps, the distracting appears in the midst of the reliable one and I dont know the purpose. Those technical analysis is getting unreliable and unbelievable for me again. It is easy to understand the effect of Corbid 19 on the market but these drawn lines are just display of some bookwarms. Since I knew the market technical analysis does not consider the effect of whale manipulation in the market I stopped believing it.

When the pandemic virus is not yet started the highest price of bitcoin is 10,000$ and up. After that the bitcoin price are slowly go down but not so deeply and it was a normal rate in a market. But when the pandemic virus called COVID-19 is started and spreads all over the world there’s a huge of impact that happened with their lifestyle everything has changed. The bitcoin market price neither survived due to coronavirus pandemic. I guess the COVID-19 is one of the reason why bitcoin price are deeply drop. 

It is possible that such news simply involves price manipulation, and they do not carry any breakthrough news. In principle, this can even be realized by issuing similar news, and making money on the collapse of the market, but this is certainly a bad option.

actually the Virus is spreading the world since last year thats why it is called Covid-19 stands for 2019 virus but only become pandemic in mid of march and same time the market starts to fall hard.
but the Post of OP maybe added the impact thats why the market falls so fast that day March 12 and until now the effect is still making the value stays Down contributing by those Holders that starts to sell now because of not enough funds from the quarantine.

The phrase "muh human lives" is the identifier for a new kind of psychopath.
The idea is to shutdown the entire world and cause massive unemployment, recession, hungry, pain and crime on a global scale, and then say it was to "save human lives".
Who cares for children who needs to be feed? Lets "save human lives" by depriving their fathers of work and starving them.
This degree of psychopathy will certainly be studied in the future, if humanity survives the onslaught.

TS do you seriously think that the problem with bitcoin is that shadowy scientists in their underground bunker laboratories are creating a quantum PC?
There are a lot of problems with superposition, and you are talking about crypto.
No one will use a quantum PC to hack crypto because it's a super-expensive toy and for completely different purposes lol

For now there is no one who is sure as to what really led to the drop in the bitcoin price. There are some saying that the Plus Token scam was what led to fall in the price and others have come to believe that the main reason why the price of bitcoin dropped was due to the pandemic, well, why not? Majority of the markets were affected and their prices are very low, look at Dow Jones, that ones seems to be a target, then you have Tesla and others.

As for this quantum computer, I never thought that anyone is still afraid of this by now, nobody even talks about it any longer. I'm just going to say that what led to the drop in price is not just one thing but a lot of things.

There must be more than quantum breakthrough that caused the crash, other stocks also crashed at that time, does it also mean that the reason of the crash was quantum breakthrough? No, there are other factors that play in the crash. I like that you give graphs to prove your point but there should be hard evidence, this one is circumstantial and we need more than that. Sorry, I can't give any example.

quantum or corona is a common reason for now, what happened when the US closed their borders to Europe I don't know that, but I think whales use all these reasons, I'm still waiting for further news