Bitcoin Forum

It's good that you realize it's just an estimate which might be different from someone else's. Hopefully, it also leads you to the conclusion that it might turn out to be wrong, as all the estimates people make cannot be right and, in fact, sometimes none of them are. I don't know, I really hope that yours won't get real because' it's not a particularly nice one. At the same time, I don't think it's a big deal if Bitcoin goes down to $5800 or something.
I'm wondering if you've been keeping track of how often the estimates of yours turn out to be right or wrong if you're making them often.

There is a lot of speculation about the market price of the bitcoin because it is now heading towards into the upward trend, but it takes time to decide if this is continuously increasing upward because if the market consistently declined this time of 7k dollars it is now rapidly falling into the chance of 5k dollars and this is not possible because there are a lot of reason why. But the thing we are looking forward to positively is the market bitcoin halving, and this is for the coming two to three months, and we can see if the price of the bitcoin again will beat the previous one before the year of 2020 ends.

I guess I am still 80% right & 20% is wrong!!!

donno this one gonna hit my target or not!!

Yes exactly! I think as soon as we overcome the current global crisis bitcoin price will be getting in much better shape & probably end of this year we could see something special from bitcoin

i'm curious also about kryptqnick's last statement regarding your estimates. how long are you doing the estimates and what percentage of them are at least near with the actual trading market? I think it is good to have a compilation if you are really doing this kind of analysis so you know how many times you are in the right direction or not. I think it will help you in assessing future estimates. You will learn also other factors that might affect the market movement and integrate possibly in your estimates.

How can you be sure of your 80% chance of right here? How often you see the result of your analysis prevail? It is important that you are recording your technical analysis results. This show if you are really doing it right or I mean somehow realistically correct on your speculation. Though you mentioned that this is just an estimation.

I think all trading patterns and drawings are estimation and could be identified as wild good guess also.

Like what everyone is asking, can you share your accuracy rate here of your trading on actual market? Give figures but dont lie.

First of all I want to say I am not an financial adviser.Here I just share my own thought & I also said its alao an estimation so it could go both way.
If you ask me my accuracy  rate of prediction?
You can see this picture below.

Stats of March 2020(Spot trading)

https://imgbb.online/images/2020/04/09/IMG_20200409_094811.jpg

A clean break of this trend could send BTC skyrocketing the next key resistance level around 9k would be the clear sign of Bull run and I will patiently waiting to see this.

A lot of speculation comes everyday about BTC still no one knows what will happen in a day because of its volatility, even the technical analysis goes wrong sometimes. I guess it will continue to go up till halving...

Bitcoin has every reason to remain bullish except Whales decided to play a game to scare off weak holders, others we have no business going downtrend. This is part of the reason the market has been gaining momentum. BCH and BSV have been halved if I am right. This momentum is expected to be sustained.

If we will consider the whales, what OP made above will be non-sense, we can't really disregard the power of the whales, as even if everyone is expecting the market is bullish but they can do anything to dictate the market to move in an opposite direction.

^^. Yes, I thought that we can go and break $7500 and then goes to $7700-$7900, but it seems we have some sell-off pressures, puling the price to $6800-$6900. So all $7xxx breaches are not going to happen and the break out that we are expecting goes on the opposite direction, not very good if you are a holder. But perhaps scalpers and day traders have profited though, not saying it's bad, however, it's better to be a holder at this point and wait for the halving next month.

Do not forget that things could change in bitcoin world very very quickly, just because the charts are saying one thing doesn't mean bitcoin won't do another, with that in mind this looks like maybe not going to happen anytime soon and people realized that going over 7.5k quickly would be a murder on bitcoin price which is why they are holding it back for a while until we are more ready to go above. Think about it what would you pick if you were offered "bitcoin at 8k today but under 6k tomorrow" or "bitcoin around 7k or a bit less today but longer term above 8k"?

I would pick the second one for sure without a doubt and many people are doing that right now as well. It just makes more sense to get ready right now instead of risking what we have worked so hard for.

I don't want to focus on these stuff and make myself nervous rather I would just invest in BTC and wait patiently for at least a month from now because we know the market will surely change in couple of weeks.

BTC is a powerful asset which has a strong potential to bounce back very soon, right now the market looks diplomatic and predictions are confusing so it's better to hold our asset for few more days till halving.

That was showing a climbing market trend. But we have to think about is volatility and the possible thing after this it is either an up or down. We can draw a conclusion or having similarly the same as what it happens last week, last year or yesterday. It comes differently and we can't be sure what will come next. I know it was good to track the market and see its previous records but to the fact that we are living this kind of volatility, nothing got to sure about the upcoming and we just have this prediction (which is not even 90% accurate).

Unfortunately, but the coming economic crisis in the world can as well help Bitcoin's price, as well as seriously harm it. At the moment of the first signs of panic on the stock exchanges, the price of Bitcoin also dropped significantly, and with subsequent bad news from the classic exchanges, a large drop in the BTC price may repeat. However, in my opinion, the situation of the world economy will be worse and investors may notice great potential in cryptocurrencies. Even if the price now drops to $5k, in my opinion in a month or two it will start to rise quickly. I think that when it comes to investment, there is too much risk to sell now to buy back cheaper. In my opinion, the probability that the price will fall sharply is smaller with every new day. So, yes, it is possible that the price will drop a little more, but in my opinion this is less and less likely.

Because people don't know what to believe.. whether BTC is a good investment in hard times or not. We're living BTC's first real, live test and this is when its fate is decided imo. For now, it looks like people are starting to believe more in it as the COVID-19 crisis goes on.

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Why is it not good for hodlers? If you do not plan to sell your coins, why would it be an issue for the price to plummet for some time? The ones most at risk are the weak-handed and those who need to use BTC for different payments and other purposes. If you're a hodler, get some popcorn and watch how the market moves - as long as you don't make moves, you're in the safezone.

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Interesting analysis, so many traders with so many different perspectives.. I wish I had the possibility to buy more BTC now, all my plans are down thanks to the quarantine ;D Keep it up, OP!

I think the last big decline was caused by panic on classic stock exchanges, and the people who sold BTC are investors who don't know much about the cryptocurrency market. Those who know how inflation caused by the crisis can affect the price of Bitcoin will soon see great potential in it. This is a big opportunity for the cryptocurrency market and I think it will be well used this time. However, we have to wait a month or maybe a few more.

Probably a month or a year. However, this will give no change to the insights that most people have seen in the market. We having this sideways, we've been up and down several times. The situation isn't new to us and so we don't have to show worries because we don't know what will happen tomorrow, next week and soon. Bitcoin believes to have its market potentiality remain strong and this will helps/encourage traders and investors to keep calm even the others are in panic selling.

Honestly I feel like there is a thing that we haven't really named in the bitcoin world, maybe there is a name for it but I just don't know what it is. Lets say "bear", you know what bear is, you know that is when market is in panic mode and everyone sells and price goes down right? We all know that one. Take a look at "bull", not gonna explain it, you know it. From dead cat bounce to correction to many other names, we all know them.

However there is this thing when bitcoin goes up, fails to go any further because it hits a resistance, so drops down a bit, waits there for a few days or so, then test it again to break the resistance, sometimes breaks it, sometimes fails and redo that whole cycle again, does this all the way until it breaks the resistance. What does that called? We are in that right now.