Bitcoin Forum

The most important question on everyone's mind right now is Bitcoin set to rally into the halving or will we see another dump and retest of the recent lows?

In this video I take a in-depth look at the possibilities and probabilities of what happens going into the halving.

https://youtu.be/j78WSzThEK0

In this time, The Bitcoin price will not follow :o the previous Bitcoin Halving events. So, the previous two Bitcoin halving events make the new Bitcoin ATH within the 6-month period and 1 1/2 year period, So, This Bitcoin halving event may take a long time :-\ to make new Bitcoin ATH. The major reason can be the global situation of the pandemic coronavirus.

Some interesting thoughts.

Bitcoin definitely dumped during the liquidity crisis caused by the pandemic which seemingly popped the everything bubble. Since it has recovered almost 100% off of it's low. The Federal Reserve's response to the liquidity crisis was to expand the money supply by $4 trillion dollars restarting QE. In 34 days Bitcoin's monetary policy will experience QH or quantitative hardening.

The next 12-18 months should be explosive for hard money assets such as Bitcoin & gold as they are repriced with the world's monetary supply increasing drastically over the last few weeks.

TLDR;:    The fiat price will go up, go down, or stay the same.  Previously it has gone up over time, particularly after a halving - within 6-18 months of the halving it has risen.  No one knows what will happen this time.  It might rise into the halving, or it might not. 

I think that sums it up.  :-)

The short answer is that if you believe in the ability of technology to protect people's assets from the authoritarians/totalitarians/socialists/communists and other elites, then bitcoin will rise over the longer term.

Jordan already said it could go to $20K this year like it will tough the ATH when it breaks the resistance where the liquidity crisis he mentioned. The fact that halving as always will act as catapult for the price to pump, its almost certain that it can go that direction. Halving is going to happen next month. He is suggesting to buy just when it retest the support level why not buy now?

While I do think any price under $10,400 is cheap, and anything under 20k provides amble room for serious profit - I am providing a "safe" entry into Bitcoin. I also mentioned in the video that now is a good time to buy and I added during the dump at $4100, $5200, $6100 and $6500. I would had added more but the dump was very quick and I could not get more funds to the platform I needed in time.

Yes, $6,300 is going to be a fantastic entry into Bitcoin in just a short time in my opinion.

Bitcoin should be set for halving in not more than a month time, but I hope the COVID 19 pandemic will not create an extension to it. So far, the bitcoin and many other altcoin price has been quite stagnant. We may have a little rise from that next month as long as the halving commences but a more pronounced rise after 6-8 month of the halving.

You see this is something we can never predict accurately. Was anyone able to actually predict how badly the price would have been affected by the current virus outbreak? Nope. People were instead hoping the price to rise, but you see the exact opposite has happened.
Now, no one is certain how the halving will impact the price. The halving might help us to recover to the previous price. We can already see it growing back!

Do you realize the market just rallied 94%? And that the halving is one month away? This is the halving pump, just like the one that occurred in May-June 2016 right before the July 2016 halving. During that rally, price just about doubled, but shortly before the actual halving the market crashed 40%.

Be prepared for that. Logically the halving should be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" event since it's public knowledge. I would expect sellers to front run the event (like 2016) for the same reason.

I don't think we'll be seeing the March lows again, but depending where this rally tops, a 30-40% drop wouldn't be out of the ordinary.

It was a 30% drop after the 2nd halving right?

I agree if we were to rally past the "fair value" of $11,400 the halving prior we could see a pullback. Also throughout the bull market phase expect MULTIPLE 30% pullbacks as during the last market cycle.

Personally, I don't view it as Bitcoin just rallied 100% off of the low (which is of course has) but nothing more than a vicious liquidation loop on Bitmex which self corrected within hours after Bitmex went offline. Price is basically back to where it was before the liquidity crisis.

Actually, we can't decline such possibilities. We still have a number of days before halving and the trend seems too good to see that it was increasing.
This is to say that if the current momentum will continue is could be expected that market price will be at a high.
As we can see, we are surpassing $7k since in the past few days and this may tell us that people are now accumulating more Bitcoin than of selling it amid to the COVID-19. Well, it is not a big surprise anymore as we know that the crypto market will likely to recover fast than of the local market.

Halving and the heavy dropping of stock markets benefits Bitcoin. But as mentioned already by some people here, chances are that this might be another "sell the news" as many non-regular Bitcoin traders will also try to enter and snatch some quick profits before going back to their traditional markets.

If we base on statistical data on the past history we can define or see that there are huge possibilities for a rise but every halving year got different story like just what happen today where we are facing a global economic crisis to due to this pandemic disease and might this could affect the growth of the bitcoins price since as of now government globally doesn't have any solution for the said disease and if lockdowns will still occur for sure many people will get affected and those crypto enthusiast people will be force to withdraw their assets for security.

It was a 40% drop in 2016. Arguably the August Bitfinex hack news intensified the downward pressure and we crashed harder than we would have otherwise.

Why do you think $11,400 is fair value? My opinion is fair value = the current spot price.


I don't think Bitmex caused the liquidity event at all.  https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5235794.msg54171345#msg54171345

I agree that part of this month-long rally was merely a reaction to that liquidity event. However I don't think that automatically means we get another 100% halving pump (like 2016) either. It's still a "sell the news" event that sellers will probably front run by a matter of weeks, and BTC holders are still sitting on massive losses from $10.5K, suggesting lots of upside resistance.

Pandemic is one situation and then there are other rules and regulations which is implemented in the market, the other two times we had a free market as none of the authorities was taking a particular interest because the market was new and since we had a huge rally last time, the financial sector has set their eye in this market and with that it is hard to see the market rallying until there is a concrete reason.

I also don't think so that even if this novel coronavirus (covid19) happened we can see a new all-time-high before the block halving, because as what we get to used is for every halving before we see a huge price actions weeks before but things changed now and some people expected to see a new all-time-high on year 2021.

There is no certainty that the halving will directly lead to a price increase. No one knows the future. Because the payout will be halved, new coins will be harder to get and that could raise the value of the currency. So if the same amount of total processing power (I.e. Same amount of miners using the same mining hardware) and the same daily rate of new money being invested into the Bitcoin each day post-halving, then the supply will slow down in proportion to investment and therefore the price per coin will increase.

you are confusing recovery/bounce-back with a rally.
a recovery is when price rises AFTER a massive drop. it is similar to bubbles, they are unstable because the value has dropped way below the reality. you can never consider the bottom of such prices as the real low just like you can't call the peak of a bubble as a real high value. they both are fake and the result of an excited market.
as a result what happens after that overly excited state is the "correction" of the "mistake" not a rally.

with that cleared, what we had in the past weeks is a simple recovery where price comes back closer to its natural value. it can not be considered a rally even if it was a profitable process for some day traders. consequently it has nothing to do with halving either.

I'm almost 90% sure that the Bitcoin price will go down after the halving,because a lot of not-so-experienced crypto traders that jumped in the crypto trading wagon during the last 3 years will have some false exaggerated expectations about the halving pumping the Bitcoin price.The BTC halving will just happen,the BTC price pump won't come and all those rookie traders will start selling their BTC out of disappointment(because they can't control their emotions).Therefore,there will be some cheap Bitcoins for us to buy after the halving. ;D

I imagine the price will rise for $11,000, and make a correction at $7,000-$9,000, and then after the halving, the price slowly to increase and back to $14,000 until October. After that, the price rises so high and break $20,000 and more ;D

It's too good to be true, but the price can go to any price ;D

But so far, I enjoy for the up and down of the price because I make some profit from that.

No, I cannot see any sign of it.
No hype also.

We might expect more of a bear trend rather than a bull.
Let us not forget people are still spending money.
Bills are piling up every month and all of that will be paid in one bulk which will hurt a lot.
No time for people to be thinking of buying something else except for food and medicine.

not regulated, but potentially. when halving occurs, crypto users know what is happening, especially the miners. it is likely that there is a greater need for demand and demand which causes the price to rise. that had happened to halve in the previous year.

Personally don't think the halvening will have any effect for this year, but regardless I would suggest to keep it very simple.

• 10.5k USD

That is the important price, that would change the trend dramatically (higher high).

Everything else between current price (7.3k) and this resistance at 10.5k is not substantial. I personally didn't do any trading since January, the current area is very difficult to read. When I say trading it's usually to get between 10% to 30% profit.

The pandemic also brings its own advantage, we only look at the struggling economic situation around the world resulting in unemployment and inability to invest even in cryptocurrency, if the government plans to put such a big fund into the economy it will go somewhere and could find itself in the space. Just few billions from the stimulus package in bitcoin could give high price at bullrun and may not delay the bullrun as expected.

Phenomenal post. P-h-e-n-o-m-e-n-a-l

This is pretty much my exact base case as well. Due to the recent dump it is possible in my opinion however that we don't get a 30% correction until $14,000.

And during the bull phase except a handful of 30% corrections.

I have a feeling that bitcoin will have a rally soon, either prior to halving or post halving, this pandemic will end soon so people will be looking to the big even that happened in crypto this year and that is halving.

Since we're all making guesses, I might as well throw my hat into the ring, not that I've been right every quarter since 2018;)

Price to go up to $9k, as halving counts down and Fomo intensifies. Then perhaps a break of $10k many, many times, before eventually falling back to $8k.

I've always seek 9k to 10k as no man's land and nothing inside there is meaningful. BTC will need to break 2019's high to send the market into a frenzy.

I doubt we can really go beyond 11k these days, not before halving at least, correction sounds reasonable if it really goes that high but I doubt it can these days. Surely it can stay above 7k until halving, maybe go down for a while but at least be around these prices and eventually stay above 7k (even if it drops under 7k for a while).

However I believe around 8-9k is more reasonable for a bullish increase, not that it is impossible to go to 11k but it requires a lot of money to be used in purchasing bitcoin and the world economy is not really doing all that well so far which is why I doubt it. With something like 8k you are not just talking about the money coming it but also sellers going out, so it is more reasonable to expect such price.

I supposed to think the market will surely rise during halving similar to the previous halving even but maybe we unlucky this time as a crisis appears in the global market and ruin everything including crypto. But despite this struggle and market difficulties, I'm still thinking about the possibilities that the market will surge high, in fact, we are moving at high after a huge dump last month. But we don't expect that we are in bullish this coming halving, $8k-$9k is a way to make possible.

other previous halving shows that price were down but some of it shows increase  , its not on a pattern but it depends on the economic flow i believe . now that we are on economic crisis  ,there is a good chance that price wont rise too much during or after the halving  but this isnt the end guys , we still have other chance after this   . 

usually we can also see a price hike during before year ends if not then next year no problem   . crypto life is only rise and fall  . not all times price will stay at one side  .

I don't trust fundmanetal analysis because when I did before, my portfolio got burned where I lose huge amount of money. Not because of the recent rise of the price of the bitcoin does mean that it is all about the halving that is now near. I do not think so if it is the real reason but it is all about supply and demand after all, I bought a bitcoin recently because of the breakout that happen and not because of the halving.

It is quite to see that this coming halving won't have a huge market incline and it possible we are still below $10k. If we could notice how the market shows its trend, it actually different from the previous halving. And also it has been shown last 2016 halving never did such bullish think during halving but it was shown months after the event. Itis possible the scenario might be the same.

Currently most influence on Bitcoin price have upcoming economic recession. Halving is a sure event that was planed 11 years in advance, No uncertainty there. With economic recession only sure thing is that it is here. How severe will be no one knows. Two days ago Wuhan finally started opening after 14 weeks. That are good news. A lot of world is locked right now and a lot of world is only getting infected with covid-19 and lockouts will only start in upcoming weeks. We will have to lie with virus until the vaccine a year from now. That is a lot of uncertainty. No one can predict  price of Bitcoin a month from now. Impossible. Even biggest whales are powerless.

With what is happening, I believe investors have different expectation this year.

Though we think that bitcoin will rise or should rise because halving time will come, but the pandemic is still here, this kills our economy.

Hahaha, we can expect and have a dream to see bitcoin will rose as we want. But we don't have to shock or amaze if somehow, bitcoin price is not moving as we wish to because bitcoin can up and down anytime and any price ;D


Yes, it is free to guess, and I think many people make their own guesses. I hope that the price to go up this month and reach $9k will happen before halving. I am sure bitcoin will be more than what happened in 2019.

They have this mixed feeling of selling and holding.

When the price fell, I think it is not all because of the moving of scammed bitcoins of Plustoken but I think it is also because some holders or investors panic sell their own. With the pandemic still a problem to countries, we can't really remove the possibility that it will drop anytime soon that is why we should stay vigilant as it may go down. The thing here is that I don't think that dump will happen in a longer period. The same last week, that price just rocket up since people would be taking that opportunity to reinvest since the halving is coming.

The small drops are not really all that much of a "panic sell" if you ask me, sure the panic sell did happened during when we fell from above 8k to under 4k, that was really a big panic sell and I can understand it, however when you drop from 7.2k levels to 6.9k levels that is not big enough to be called a panic sell.

We peaked at a resistance level and we couldn't move beyond it so the buyers stopped for a while and sellers took over so that buyers could join the sellers and drop the price and buy more cheaper with more money that way. It helps us go further and higher in the future, those small corrections give the buyers some time to regroup and attack harder in the future. Check out all the higher movements, all of them came from a bounce back movement before itself.

If you pay attention to the previous Bitcoin halving in past years, it is understandable that many users of cryptocurrency hope for Bitcoin halving in May 2020.  But you need to take into account the current circumstances in the cryptocurrency market and the economic situation around the world, which does not give any guarantees for bull running thanks to btc halving in the cryptocurrency market.  Although my hope is still smoldering to see positive results.

the halving hype is definitely there and every day it is growing even bigger as more people are anxious to buy bitcoin expecting the hyped up rise. when you think about it, with the recent drop a lot of investors panic sold their bitcoins and now they are left with a lot of money that they are waiting to put back into bitcoin (buy back). everything is pointing towards a big rise since the potential is there. but the only thing that is not clear is the time of it. it could be pre-halving or a week after halving.

This is a question that I believe that currently 80% of people must have the answer and the answer is clear for this year we will not see a big rally, in my opinion for this year we will see a moderate price increase. perhaps from november / december the price will reach more than $ 10,000 if the pandemic is successfully controlled. I heard that some governments are doing everything possible to reduce the crisis and everything will return to normal as soon as possible, this could be good for the cryptocurrency market

Dump to 3-4k by the FED. They need to cover the money they have been printing, so they are going to sell their bitcoins.
Also its easy for them to dump the price and tell the cucks it was COVID-19.

It is a global health issue gives something to fully not think a positive market response during halving. We might say that 2020 Halving is in the wrong timing. We can't certainly expect an increase in market demand during this time even we saw a strong market hold. And probably we just hold the current market position until the end of this year.

for the time being, I suspect that prices will soon reach $ 7.5k. however, halving will definitely have an influence on the price of bitcoin. Well, I think that the price of bitcoin is preparing for recovery. even now prices are slowly recovering.

$7500 has a resistance line. Its not going to be easy to break but we may be able to see the price stays at the current price for several days to weeks.


It was meant for holders, if they could buy right now before the breakout in 7500, its always going to drop again but before that they can already accumulate after selling at such price too. Its always going to test the support and resistance.

there truly is an epic amount of money waiting on the sidelines. a record-setting $3 billion+ is held in stablecoins sitting on exchanges right now. it's an explosion waiting to happen!

https://twitter.com/twobitidiot/status/1250979847536590849

Not sure, I am sensing it could break that grounds sooner. Halving is approaching fast, and few days already weve seen how bitcoin struggling on this current level. Maybe traders are just waiting for a signal to fully passed that mark.

Ive seen the tweet too. I wonder if those holding it will use some bloody manipulation during the halving.

I was hoping the explosion could be on the positive side and not the reverse position.

so i need to sell my coins now to wait for this dump?mind to say when will this be happen?or this is another FUD that needs to spread in this forum so people will panic again?
they have already done this last month when the pandemic make news and the market drops easily down to 4k$ price of Bitcoin.
But after all this what i wanna do is to Buy more if this 3-4k happens again because i missed the 2019 fall.

I'd like to consider the situation we are now, there's a global pandemic, therefore I have doubt that bitcoin will rise into the halving.
Bitcoin is set for a rise if this pandemic did not happen, sadly, it's here now and it's taking a while already and still no solution on how to stop this.

TBH, I believe that crypto's future when there is a global crisis.

I guess many people now are waiting for the next thing that will happen with bitcoin because we are less than a month to see the halving time coming. Maybe bitcoin will rise towards the halving, and after the halving, the price will get the real rise to the highest price. If we check to the market, it seems, right now, the price is at the sideways, so that makes me wonder whether the price will get down and make correction again or it will be like this until the next month. If the price is up, the increase is not too high, but it's enough to make a profit.

Have you seen the history a few years ago when bitcoin did halving ?, while bitcoin would do halving, prices did tend to go down, but there was a slight increase, you can see prices now, bitcoin prices have dropped dramatically from $ 10,000 to $ 3800, and now prices are recovering at $ 7,000, I think the price will drop back to $ 5,000 before a new bullrun begins after halving, just opinion  ;)

Things happened in the past doesnt mean that they will picture out on what would be the things will happen into the future.
Yes we have seen that the price had clinged up but only after the event.There would be always that kind of accumulation period
but we know that not all does have an assurance that it would happen again.We might not even know if this current price would be the bottom
or the last one to be seen and the price might shoot up neither before or after the event - no one really knows.

There is a lot of reason into why it won't drastically rise or be pumped.
First, the last halving didn't make it rise in a short span. It did but it took a year before it happened and it doesn't really look right.

The corona virus is also a thing to consider.
With a lot of spent money by people there be won't much to invest with or they would not even have that small thought to put it in the market.
Maybe after 1 year we could see some fruits.

There was a pre-halving pump in 2016. Beginning in late May, there was a month long rally where price rose 105%. It topped out a month before the halving.

For comparison, BTC just went on a month long rally and rose 94%. If April 7th was the top, it'll have been ~ 1 month before the halving, just like 2016. I could see one more leg up though, as long as the stock market obliges.

These situations are looks strange because bitcoin price does not increase or decrease and its turn around on that price. I wonder what will happen in the next few hours, but I won't expect to see the price will go down because we already touch $7k so far. But if the price is finally going down, I think that will be another good time for us to buy more bitcoin. The line at the chart itself is no moves good, and tends to sideways or is it because we are in the weekend mode.

Bitcoin is not something that really cares about any resistance points on a bull hype day, sure it is very important on a regular day but when it comes down to bull hypes, those are increasing without caring a single thing in the world. Remember last year for example? We have moved from 3.4k to 13.8k in a month! That is literally over 10 thousand dollars in increase, x3 to x4 increase in bitcoin price in just one month!

You think there were no resistance in between? You think with that amount of buy orders today wouldn't get it over 7.5k? It would literally take it over 15k if it were to happen today. Which means maybe the regular days would mean its hard to break over 7.5k however if it is not a regular day and it is a hype day and a bull run, there is no resistance that could stop it.

Unless there are a lot of people who trust bitcoin, meaning if the mindset of the people is changing that bitcoin being considered as safe heaven such as gold then I believe bitcoin price will goes up as much as possible. When this pandemic came gold price has been increasing for more than 14% it is mean a lot of people there believe that gold is true direction. So I just hope that bitcoin is like gold, so many people can using it as a store of value.

Most likely, the price of bitcoin will increase as the halving approaches but I have always been saying it is not going to increase way up high as most people have been anticipating to see another bull run. I still remain my stance, we are going to see a price increase but not much.

I don't think so either, and for the same reason--the coronavirus outbreak has changed everything.  At the moment I think bitcoin's price has been buoyed by all the free money US citizens got, which I'm sure at least some of them used to buy crypto.  If that didn't happen, the price would likely be lower than it is--but that's just my view, and I'm not 100% sure of it to be honest.

I'm still curious as to what, if any, effect the halving is going to have.  There may be some increased buying because of it, but I'm not expecting bitcoin to hit even $10k this year.  We're going to have to see what happens with the global economy in the months to come.  If it tanks because of all the people being out of work, I don't have high hopes for bitcoin.

Rising into halving and rising after halving are different things and I think bitcoin will rise into the halving but may not continue afterwards. Why do I think it will rise into the halving? Because, I see that people have been expecting this halving for the past year and those people have been buying into bitcoin for the whole past year and they are doing so even more right now since it is getting closer, they all think bitcoin price will go up so in their minds "if I think bitcoin will go up after halving, best time to buy is before the halving".

Why I think it will go down after halving? Because, these people all bought their bitcoin before the halving and who is there to buy afterwards? We do not have a reason to buy afterwards and that may cause a drop.

It was really a nice and informative video and I believe that bitcoin price is going to rise after the block reward halving. But the Corona virus pandemic can cause trouble as the stock market is also struggling and people aren't having extra money to invest in Crypto or stocks. Also that most of the people are speculating that the price will go up, it can also go down as bitcoin never cease to surprise us.

I can't expect a rally this year but I believe buying bitcoin when it dump is a great thing to do.
No matter how bitcoin will struggle, the time will come that it will rise again, and if it will not happen this year, let's expect that next year would be a great year for bitcoin.

Reasons : because bitcoin is now surviving this global crisis, and it shows our market is strong or have matured already.
               Bitcoin is due for some big breakout, so eventually we will see a new ATH soon.
               Altcoins has to rise as well, so it's necessary that bitcoin will rise first.

The covid-19 change the story by now since we doesn't know on when this end up and this calamity creates panic where people not want to release their money for certain investments since the current situation in world is questionable, we are experiencing a panic right now so maybe we cannot experience some great things this halving.

There is no such thing as Set to rally because But there are big chances of going High as we can see if we track back the movements from the halving happens years ago and if we will basing on those then we are really going High .

But Rising will happen if the market stabilized because of the flow now it seems that we will having a delay if the Pandemic continues till 3rd quarter.

halving will happen in less than a month, while the pandemic is still going on, so we cant expect that bitcoin will rise if we think that the pandemic is a big factor to hinder the uptrend of bitcoin.  Even until the end of the year, its still possible that the economy will continue to struggle as we need vaccine to get back to our normal life, no vaccine means we are still at a high risk of getting infected.

waiting for the vaccine to come will be a very long time friend, at least it takes 1 year, I think the rise of Bitcoin if it happens later is not about vaccines,
but market sentiment leads to this commodity, I'm 99% sure that Bitcoin is already in the bull zone

It is considered that this health issue is really affecting the crypto market. Yet, halving has to come near but to have its some point of view and of a few market analyses it probably we can't expect that the price of bitcoin will soar high as what we think at first. In fact, the current market flows showing more downs than of having upclimbing motion will tell us that we are far from being in the Bullish market but to expect a bearish one.

I somehow agree your point here, if bitcoin will rise, it is not all about the availability of vaccine but other factors. Though there will be an effect in the market if the pandemic will be contained because people will get back to their respective jobs and crypto users will stop selling their portfolio, but for those who will invest in bitcoin, they should not expect a big change in price for bitcoin. Actually, one should be prepared for what will happen after halving, increase or decrease its price, you should have contingency plans for both scenarios.

We should be but I don't think the price will decrease significantly after the halving, as mostly the price should rise because of hype prior to halving but it's not happening now, bitcoin was just moving sideways, so I think that would be the same thing that would happen post halving.

There is a way the space gives surprises and I dont doubt $20k this year, maybe not immediately after halving. The expectation is high for pump before halving and bictoin price dont usually follow people's expectation. It is very worrisome though if we dont see any pump till the halving cause we expect a dump after halving, the resistance at the moment cant keep the price high. All I expect is a mild altseason while more money keeps bitcoin above $5000, this doesnt usually happen but sentiment will be worse if bear market continues