Bitcoin Forum

Does anyone here trade successfully (consistently) without using any standard indicators on their charts?

Do you use information from volume, momentum and orderbook information alone?

JH

Its called fundamental analysis.

I'm writing the scheme of this method on my local board https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5231845.msg54003395#msg54003395

But only work on low volume trading coins/token, cant really works with major coins so basically a "shitcoin". Went doing this im using a few steps like:

• Percentage change each day/weeks.
• Orderbook to determine support/resistance zone & target.
• Volume trading to determine how much money im gonna use for the trade.

The trade with this scheme would not be constantly its kinda hard to find the suitable coins cause i need to do due diligence before doing the trade on that coins/token.

Great, do you check the news for every trade you take?

Or do you trade based on a confluence of factors?

JH

News, rumors and anything information about the project itself included in fundamental analysis, so yes.

But since doing a trade with shitcoin/low volume coins you can't really expect they have many news/rumors.

I'm looking for a way to trade without relying on watching the news all the time.

I prefer to take volume, momentum and order flow into account when making trading decisions.

Looking for tips on that.

JH

These three doesn't work well even if you combined the three as your main indicator for trading.

Volume - this only shows you the number of trades happening for that given asset, it doesn't really tell you much if you don't add in other indicators such as moving averages and RSI

Momentum - is simply looking at a plain chart and you are at risk for any reversals that might happen.

Orderbooks - can easily be manipulated especially in the crypto market. Traders or group of traders can easily pad the order to make it look like there is a demand or selling that will happen.

With just this three alone as if you are like a trader who really don't know what technical analysis is since you have failed to even go down deeper in other indicators which will help these three.

Different traders trade in different ways and I like the sound of trading without indicators.

There are some who are very successful at it.

Anyone here trade this way?

JH

Does using some trend line or identifying supports and resistances is also considered? If not, it could work also.
Momentum and volume could be useful too. There are some momentum indicator and they are different to each others too, well if I can use momentum and volume, it could work too, but not that too strong.
I'll rather use support and resistance and these could be optional or additional.

The question which coins ur gonna trade, did the coins/token major coins or shitcoin with a low volume trading.

Like what i said, it's not every coin/token can be used for my method.

Also, TA cant work too on low volume coins, the typical coins who can work with this method is low volume coins and the analysis using Fundamental not TA.

Yeah the different FA with TA, the percentage successful trading TA more higher than FA.

I'm still using support and resistance for the FA, but the different TA using the Higher Price & Low Price went FA using Wall Orderbook as Support & Resistance. The reason if the "Wall Orderbook" was pretty big, the wall price order book could be a price rebounce for the price. Also need to see the percentage change price for the coins each day/weeks so u can set up "how much" the percentage rebounce will happen to avoid ur order is to high.

What I felt on these kind of indicators are like seasonings when you cook, although it helps to make better but still, not totally. Sometimes it is also make your chart messy when all lot of indicators. But if we get used to using these tool and we think it helps, then it's better.
Sometimes candlesticks and some trend lines will do.

Exactly what fundamentals are you talking about here? Because even if this is a high volume crypto FA will be the most useless thing you can do in analyzing a crypto. Fundamental analysis involved the study of an asset through its financial performance which means there earnings, expenses, cashflow, or basically all of the financial aspect in play which for a crypto basically has no data to show for that. The only way FA can be involved in an analysis is if we are talking about security tokens the ones that acts like a stock of a company/project and security tokens as well is just a minority in the crypto market. Regarding low volume coins you are corrrect TA would essentially be useless since the data involved is really not sufficient for you to have an accurate prediction.

Coin/token that matches the description from @OP since he asking advice a method without any indicator, "low volume" coins/token will be matches for the question.

For this i agree with you, these analyses support each other. At major coins the first steep analyses we doing an FA taken any data from news, rumor and other thing information about the coins after that the TA confirmed did the price react to that information or not. At stock, FA data was taken by the things you have mentioned the different on crypto we taken the data from news, rumors, and information about the project itself.

Can you trade with just volume, orderbook and any indication of recent momentum (without any news) and be consistently profitable using these three alone?

JH

Yes, from my history trade, i have experimented using all of this without using any news.

One of the examples KNT Token, I already mention this on my local thread but will explain this too here.
^[1] Let's skip about due diligence this token and straight to the trading section, so basically before doing any trade i need to set up "how much money" i will used for trading that token. I have fund management to trade shitcoins/token and here the information :
In this token, I trade with medium fund around 30$ using ETH Pair around 0.15 ETH that the estimation of my fund using ETH pair. The reason i using "medium fund" because i see a lot bot transaction and the order book almost around 0.002 ETH - 0.05 ETH for each order book. To avoid my order becomes a wall and my order was pretty hard to be taken that's why the amount i used would be suitable for the situation.

^[2][3]
Now we need to know the momentum how much percentage the price change for each day/weeks, as you can see on the picture the volatility price change for the last 4 days is:
13 | Low 4900 Gwei - High 6400 Gwei = 30% Change.
14 | High 5900 Gwei - Low 4900 Gwei = 20% Change.
15 | High 6200 Gwei - Low 5200 Gwei = 15-17% Change.
16 | Low 6000 Gwei - High 7000 Gwei = 15% Change.
17 | High 6500 Gwei - 5600 Gwei = Around 15% change.

As you can see, the volatility of this token the price was changing around 15-30% percentage. This could be the data we are gonna used to determined "Buy/Selling" order for ur trade. I determined my order based on the highest price/low price of this token, let's say I'm gonna buy this token the calculation would be like this:
The Highest Price - Volatility of the Token (Around 15-30%) = My Buy Orderbook.
6900 Gwei - 30% = 4800+ Gwei (Estimation price i will buy the token).
After that i make assumptions will be buying the token from the calculation + my observation for the order book and estimate my price order book will be 4800-5500 Gwei. Of course, if we have some wall on the order book, i will set my order book above the wall to avoid my order not filled because of the price bounce on the wall price.

With this strategy, I change my balance from 0.15 ETH to 0.25 ETH my profit around 50% for the short trade.

[4]Nah, cause kinda hard to looking the coins/tokens.

Also, u need to change every coin/token do not fall in love trading with the same coins. From my example at the top, I only trade around 2-3 times after that exit

I had success trades combining volumes orderbook with of course technical analysis. Also, been looking for fundamental analysis that possibly be the reason for the pump or dump. It's really a good tool combining all of those. But we cant predict sudden movement of the market, whether we percept the fundamental and technical analysis, the market is really tricky. 
 
 Whether you trade using volumes and orderbook alone, you can still have success trades without any news. That is if you are well experienced trader.

Nah, the @OP asking analysis without TA XD :P.

The pump & dump scheme, still be a mystery cause no one cant really confirmed the movement from someone who manipulates pump & dump price or a real movement price because the enthusiastic from the coin / token community it self.

All analyses only have percentage successful around 50-80%, no one cant predict the price with 100% analysis. That's why every professional trade who sharing his analysis on TradingView or other platforms always puts the disclaimer like "DYOR/DWYOR".

Volume isn't enough indicator to predict the price movement of any coin. Usually you need support and resistance and patterns such as falling wedge or rising wedge to know if the price is gonna go down to the downside or upside. Volume is another important indicator. For example if the price breaks key support but there's no volume then it's not a significant move and most results in a fake out. Just like what's happening in thw BTC price right now.

Everyone still considers TA doesn't cause pump and dump but it kinda does. Now when you think of pump and dump you think about some small time altcoin that goes up 30% and then goes down back to its original price and so forth, that is not really what the pump and dump I am talking about, those are the scheme ones and pump and dump is kind of a way for them to tell people to buy something all together whereas the people who say it buy beforehand and then they tell it too late and sell when it goes up so the only people who make money from this is the starters.

At the end of the day bitcoin pump and dump due to TA only happens when something soooo obvious is shown at it and everyone sees it and they react to it, basically TA tells people that it should go down or up and they follow it, causing some movements like that.

I believe all traders are using these tools to create their own TA(if not new). Actually, this is an important tool to know the possibility of what will happen next. Trading isn't just a wild guess and surely it won't work that way or make you successful.
Having these tools together with you when trading it helps you a lot and uplift your chance to raise your funds rather than of losing. Isn't the confidence that it will give but actually a helping tool in decision making when to buy and sell.

That is not fundamental analysis because volume and reading orderbooks are part of technical analysis. Volume is a important indicator because it tell something where it can give a glimpse where there will a reversal or if there will be another momentum. There are many uses of volume, I usually use it if I will trade a coin especially if I will range trade it. Fundamental analysis is all about tips, news and rumors around the internet. the analysis that you should use depends on what is suitable for you.

I don't really like Fundamental Analysis simply because I don't understand what all that jargon means.

I mean, if something is happening in China, how do i know how it will affect Bitcoin or any other currency.

And even if I do figure it out, that doesn't mean the market always moves in the direction of that sentiment.

I prefer to stick to TA, and that too without any indicators.

Simply use Price Action, Volume, Momentum and Order Flow.

Anyone else doing this successfully?

JH

Using MA 90, Moving Average Exponential (EMA) 24 and Moving Average Exponential 34 are enough for you to gain profit.

Also, I see an order book as well to convince the strategy is going well, thus far I do it in my whole trades and give some profit to me.

Well, as for me. Volume, momentum, and order book are only used to identify the demand for the products of a trader. It cannot easily see the success of a trader in his chosen business. Though it may serve as guidelines on the quantity of the products they should be trading on a certain period of time. The success of traders lies not on Volume, Momentum, and Orderbooks instead the trader's success lies in how they will market their products. I suggest not to rely on any analysis because they perhaps misleading traders goals.

A little bit scroll down to this thread would be good.

I already explained how i used the volume and order book itself, fundamental analysis is a speculate using a various data. From a stock perspective we got this information from the outcome and income financial from the company to make a conclusion analysis. But since fundamental analysis on crypto doesn't have this data then the data was taken by the news and other things.

On TA we have some tools for volume and order book, but i used a volume/order books from information exchange not from tools from TA went the accuray more good on tools TA than exchange information that's why i put this to my fundamental analysis method.

I use a few momentum indicators when trading, and I also look for bot activity in the order book to scalp sometimes.

However, I do think that you'll want to use more than just the orderbook and momentum if you really want to rack up the biggest wins.

Maybe you should look into using something like TradingView, you can setup alerts on there that will tell you when particular chart patterns form or when a cryptocurrency gains X percent within X timeframe.

Definitely a great tool for crypto traders.