Bitcoin Forum

I continue to try and promote awareness about Bitcoin and macro trends that effect the overall price moves and adoption.

In this video we will look at two important questions.

How Bitcoin miners will react to the BTC halving?
And will this time be different for the Bitcoin market cycle with the global slowdown?


https://youtu.be/eGLApU2xEco

If anyone has any insights to if you believe the global slowdown will have a negative effect on Bitcoin's market cycle please share your thoughts as I always like to consider the other side of my trade.

Peace and enjoy

Slowdown isn't for ever and would be an advantage in any case since cheaper btc, on a side hand halving is a month away so price is bound to spike this year unless last pump was done dliberately for this so they have supply to dump after the halving. By the last pump I mean the nefarious moment btc went from 500 to 19990 $.

The upcoming halving is one of the biggest challenge the miners will have to deal with. Small scale miners will have to go out of mining and probably will start with a different coin because bitcoin mining will not be profitable for them anymore. It will be cheaper for them to buy bitcoin from the market rather than mining it. Otherwise they will have to find an alternate source of energy which is at least 50% cheaper than the current electricity cost they are paying now. Or they will have to start implementing solar panels to continue mining. In a nutshell, small miners will be forced to find a new electricity source or move to a new coin to mine.
 
The global slowdown making things even worse for the miners. However, the only silver lining is that the, global slowdown will not last forever. The current slowdown is temporary due to the COVID-19 outbreak and the market will come back to track once this crisis is over. That recovery may not happen overnight but eventually it will happen. As soon as the lockdown is over, people will start flocking the streets buying essentials and non-essentials like before. This increased demand will help the industries to recruit people to continue with their production and thinks will start rolling towards betterment.

Not sure, what would be the impact on bitcoin, but I expect things to come back to normal slowly. More and more people are selling off their bitcoins so that they can cope up with the current financial hardship. let's hope for the best!

Then they go away and someone turns up who can earn money.

I remember threads like this around the last halving. People rolled out the evergreen mining 'death spiral' trope. I'm not sure how many times higher hash rate is now than back then but it is many, many, many times higher.

No one who is not mining needs to give a shit about mining. It takes care of itself and always has.

Some day we will need to pay proper attention to the diminishing block reward, its effects on miners and whether fees are going to do the job they were intended for to replace it but we're quite a way from it still.

If miners are sticking to being miners, then they do what they do. Miners gonna mine. Miners in these days are not the old individual miners anymore. There is a whole industry that is already taking over. Old independent miners are mostly gone and are already replaced by companies with huge mining farms. This must have made the mining business more efficient than ever. But if some are incurring losses instead of gains, then perhaps they will turn their ASICs off and try to wait and see. 50% off their profit is huge, after all. 

They will ofcourse be paid half but at the same time I do think if you are a miner you are well aware of what happens during the Halving so they should be well prepared in time.
Mining is hard in many countries , where the government is against it and at the same time the electricity bill is sky high therefore at those places a miner could have a lot of problems.
If they start using their rewards in things like trading and investments maybe after a while they can have a hang of it and will be able to go to the day to day activities like they used to do before the Halving.
But the good thing is in a crisis like the Corona virus they are still getting paid so even though it is half of what it was before , people are hunting for jobs and government and economic crisis is not new.

I am sure that bitcoin will grow again this year. Slowing down is not a permanent process; it is a temporary event.

Same as now. Miners will receive a minimum profit from their activities.

Based on our guess, here is what might happen
- Some miners will leave mining bitcoin as they see their mining profit sinks (if bitcoin price doesnt appreciate to make up the difference)
- This would cause the hashrate to decrease in a higher mining difficulty, Bitcoin network would temporarily be disrupted
- Miners may either leave and sell their SHA256 operations to another profitable bitcoin miner, maintaining network hashrate
- Or they may start to profit switch among SHA-256 coins, this is a function of Bitcoin Cash and BSV price and liquidity

In any case we are eager to know more too, and thats why we are inviting folks from Poolin and Slush to share their thoughts within the mining space post-halving at http://coingecko.com/meetup

Miners are speculators too. Wouldn't they have "quit, while they were ahead"? Because total hashing power is ATH, https://bitinfocharts.com/comparison/bitcoin-hashrate.html


Hahaha, and start mining a shitcoin that also halves every four years, AND, can't get profit enough in fees?

Isn't it obvious, the profits from mining is already slashed. A lot of miners are expected to abandon mining

The hash rate inevitably drops when the less well-heeled miners realize that their revenues are not covering their operation costs, and then begin to shutter operations.

Inevitably, more efficient mining hardware then becomes available which is first monopolized by the big mining operations, again driving up the hash rate while the price of Bitcoin climbs in tow.

Now that Bitcoin has an improved price and the price of the newer hardware has slightly reduced, smaller miners can then begin to scale in. And the cycle begins anew.

I ever read about what happens to miners after Bitcoin halving. Well, some people speculate that the halving may trigger many miners to shut down moreover the block rewards are halved that make few more coins to be mined, while the miners are still increasing probably.
Well, in fact, some miners may close their mining, but some are still working on it. Moreover, this halving also influences the fees of the transactions. As we know, the fee transaction of BTC increases highly after Bitcoin halving. Actually, the increase has been since January 2020. however, the graphic increases so fast in this month. If the fees are increasing, so does it mean that the miners also get more income from every block that they mine? It should help them to get more earning although the block reward is decreased. However, I personally don't know much about the mechanism.

However, I already read about the article by Cointelegraph. They said that there are some reasons why Bitcoin halving will not trigger miner capitulation in a big way. However, the most reason is related to electricity. Electricity fee cost in China is cheaper, worldwide energy is less demand
We all know that most miners are in China. When the cost of electricity in this country ic=s cheaper, then it will not make the miners feel hard to mine again, although the block reward is decreased. The main issue to face so far in mining is the electricity cost. If they can still cover the cost for mining, they will still continue, not shutting down their mining.

In this case, whatever the condition, the miners may suffer when the block reward is decreased. However, they will still move up if the price of the BTC is also increasing significantly. So fr, the price of BTC after halving is still not changing much. It will be mean for mining if the price can go up significantly and highly like the previous halving. Not only for the miners but also for all BTC holders.

Source:
https://cointelegraph.com/news/4-reasons-the-bitcoin-halving-wont-trigger-a-big-miner-capitulation