Bitcoin Forum

I don’t know about you’ll but this whales advice kinda feels strange, as I have only been reading that bitcoin prices will rise post the halving event, but yet he claims that bitcoin prices will fall post the halving event. According to him the effects of halving is already factored in bitcoin prices, and that’s why post the halving event bitcoin prices will tank. What do you’ll think of this is he correct, or is this some kind of mind games that he’s playing with us?.

Sources:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-whale-suggests-btc-price-will-crash-halving-is-priced-in

https://cointelegraph.com/news/halving-mentions-spike-on-twitter-and-in-crypto-media

https://www.coindesk.com/how-financial-models-could-move-bitcoins-price-after-the-halving

I'm big on contrarian trading, trading against the crowd. I'd agree that people are quite bullish on the halving so he might be onto something.

Keep in mind he's down $11.3 million over the past month if you check the leaderboard, so he's not always right. ;)

The BTC price can always go down, whether it's before or after halving is actually less important. The same things are people like this alleged whale talk before halving in 2016, and we all know what happened afterwards. There is a large mass of people who are very likely investing money currently in BTC because they are counting on quick profits after halving. But anyone who knows at least something about the past two halving knows that even in the most ideal circumstances, the effect will not be positive instantly.

Will halving be followed by a price drop? That is one of the possibilities, to which I am personally fully prepared. Whales always play games, especially those that go public.

Halving may or may not be already priced in. But keep in mind that even without halving we had one year ago 13800 price.
There may be indeed a lot of manipulation going on, from a pre-halving pump to simply playing with our minds. Also all the markets are rather unstable now because of oil.

But.. keep in mind that Bitcoin has finite supply and the mining costs will rise for most miners. Imho the price will rise eventually.

I don't ever believe the 'priced in' crew. They said the exact same thing about previous ones along with oldies but goldies like 'mining death spiral'.

But this is a bit of excitement that peters out once the actual event is over. You have to wait quite some time for the true effects to be digested and start to influence things. If we are to get any proper action from it I'm not expecting any until well into next year.

If the halving is already "priced in", which is possible, THEN the "Bitcoin prices could fall after the halving" narrative is also priced in, by the price-setting-whalecumulators.

Buy the dip, and? 8)

Hard to predict, fundamental technical analysis fails if whale is working. But if you look at the cycle I think there will be a slight correction and then up again. Whale is the key here, even though the miner also plays a role. Minner does not want to lose, so he will continue to try to make prices better because rewards per block go down and the cost minning is large.

I also think so, the increase in the price of Bitcoin before Halving is already very high, almost $ 5000 increase in 1 month, if you are still trading on Bitcoin now, I suggest to exit first, the situation is still stable, the possibility of correction is greater

Even though Whale says the price of Bitcoin will fall the way they want, but remember the miners will not stand still for it.
According to calculations if the current price of Bitcoin falls below $ 4000 it is certain that the Miner Algo Sha-256 ecosystem has suffered losses.
Especially after halving occurs, the smaller the block.

If then the price falls as Whale said, Will the Whales send their Bitcoin using a hoe?
When the miner has decided to no longer run the miner because of a loss.

So I assumed that what Whale said was only part of their FOMO, so that later they were ready to buy as many Bitcoins as possible if the price really fell, then they pumped the price of Bitcoin to the highest price again.

They are right, why do you think just because bitcoin has a halving the price should go up right away.

Look we all know what the halving is, the amount of bitcoins mined per day would drop from 1800 bitcoins per day to 900 bitcoins per day, so we have the data that we are looking for, which means at the very best scenario if we assume all the 1800 bitcoins that are mined every day gets sold (I doubt it, some of it definitely gets kept at the wallets) that means we are going to have 900 bitcoins less sold on the market. Looking at the volumes of bitcoins everything, there is really no way 900 bitcoins less per day could make a change on right at the spot. It is definitely a long term thing but not a right away thing. So, they are kind of right and I agree with them.

Whales will moves the prices in the opposite direction of everyone thinking so there is possibility of happening this but yet no one can confirm this.Even though if the price fell after the halving it won't take too much time to get recovered from the price fall.

It's understandable that with the last halving that I've witnessed, price didn't do that much after the event. And then we know what happened a year and few months after (2017).

Just don't be affected by their words and follow the plan that you have been set even before the halving. If you're a holder, just set yourself and be prepared for the best and the possibility of what they are saying. It's an opinion so the reaction will depend on how you take the situation, there's also the logic that the crowd is saying they're bullish so it's kind of fearing to know that as well. But despite that, I'm still bullish but not of that immediately with the exact time halving is done.

Very reasonable, timeless advice is buy the rumour sell the news.   This is a certain protocol change but it has that dynamic I think, the speculation is how market responds to block reward change.   My own simple take is that any reaction is more like year to year not anything immediate, accumulate not react in actual supply and demand.   So the POV of OP article is quite fair.

Right this moment, price is staying above 2 day average which should be marked as very strong action while it is maintained.    A bigger deal is the weekly movement, with 7400 the rough week average, right above us is the 200 day average and I would guess we circle this for this month end.   So possibly we can return to 7400 having reached the 8000 mark, if people take profits that is.

in 2016, it sorta was priced in. the market dumped pretty hard right around the halving, then kept dumping for a month afterwards. something like a 40% drop all told.

my take is the halving as an event can be priced in, just like that. but the long term supply effects that will be felt over the coming years---that can't be effectively priced in this early. in that way, a lot of us are talking about two different things.

it's very likely to fall right after the halving because by that time the hype would have died down and the rush of investors that came in before the halving will go down once they don't see any major increase. Unfortunately this is going to be the fate of bitcoin post halving because countries are still on lockdown and economic activities are close to halt. No money means no investment into assets like bitcoin.

You articulated it better than me. That's what I was clawing towards.

I assume these people are talking long term rather than short term but perhaps they didn't make it very clear. I don't expect anything other than a pump and dump in the next few months myself. If there isn't then it'll be a pleasant surprise.

If some whales do talk about that matter then most of the time it would really be on opposite way.Instead of price decline then
there might be some shoot up but who knows? right? We cant really tell if it would go down or rise into that moment because its
always been unpredictable and you do really believe that whales would easily tell up their plans? They can move out the market
but thy would always call things that would benefit them.Im not saying that this is some sort of trap but most likely it is.  8)

You like these extreme "predictions" don't you?  ;D ;D

https://i.imgur.com/hGcWSAp.png

You should have searched for one with a drop to 400$ to match the other one :P

Please tell me you're thinking of a hoe as a mattock shovel and not... ;D

As for this halving, probably the real event is going to be eclipsed by the restarting economies and that could influence the price short term more than the halving itself. Two months ago we were up more than 3000$ so one has to think not only if it is the halving "priced in" but if also what is going to follow in the economies is also "priced" in. Will people buy more? Will they not? Are some going to sell because they've lost their main job?

Half a month to go...
Oh, and btw, the halving will happen in the middle of the next epoch, 7 days from the difficulty adjustment  
You might want to consolidate your inputs prior to that!

I'd say halvening is priced in until the day it happens. There shouldn't be any immediate price jump as soon as the reward drops, and we also went from $3k to $14k in last year, and then from $6.5k to $10k and now from $4k to almost $8k all thanks to the upcoming halvening - speculators are already testing if it can cause another bull or not, and that means it is at least partially priced in.

I've been following that guy for a few months now. He is indeed a big whale however his risk/reward is way off. He was seen in the past having an -$20,000,000 unrealized profit that turned into +$20,000,000 realized profit. So basically he enters way too early in most of his trades.

He stated how he trades, he said a few months back that no real money is actually flowing into bitcoin and crypto and this entire rally is just leveraged traders. Basically someone with 1 BTC can buy up to 100 BTC and its what lead us up here, issue is that if the rug is pulled then who will absorb that 100 BTC sell order? Not even bids obviously. Hence his reasoning for being short.

Actually most of the money coming in is people who already owned Bitcoin before the 10k covid19 crash, now people are buying back in, this low price gets more newbies into the space, then halving and boom, bull run.

Do you really think about halving 2016? Price on May 1, 2016 was $450, and year is start will almost same price. After halving price is only go up very slow, but without any drops, so year is ended with $960 which is more than %100 increase compared to halving.

https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/historical-data/?start=20160101&end=20161231

i remember it quite well actually. "without any drops"? on the contrary:

june 2016 high: $779
halving: july 9 2016
august 2016 low: $465

= 40.3% drop. https://bitcoinwisdom.io/markets/bitstamp/btcusd

There has been these discussions for a while and it is going to basically be the war of our age. Halving has happened before so this is not the first one, if I am not wrong it started with 50 and dropped to 25 and it also dropped to 12.5 later, so this will be nothing new.

However, halving never happened when the bitcoin price was so high and the market cap was so big, which means we are going to get something incredible happen because there will be a lot of people who believe that bitcoin price will go up and there will be a lot of people who believe it will go down, those two will clash head on right at the halving day and whoever comes on top will be the winner and that direction price will go. There is no mysterious method where halving suddenly makes the price change, it will be the people who buy and sell that will change it.

There are less probability for drop but still it's unpredictable, I think this is not the good time for Investing on a coin. The market is extremely volatile and we are experiencing lot of ups and downs in the BTC price from last couple of days, If big whales start manipulation the price then for sure BTC price will drop at the same time altcoins will follow it. Guys be very cautious again it's not the time for Investing...

It's not going to be less probable when the whales say so. But the problem is, they could be bluffing to create market panic. Though the market is unpredictable, but whales can somehow steer which direction they want the price to go.
If I could still remember correctly, there was a price drops before and after the halving. So, what these whales are saying does make sense.
It's not gonna be a bad thing for the investors if Bitcoin still drops, that's another opportunity to accumulate more Bitcoin.

I was thinking about the same but looking at these increases may have changed my mind a bit. Think about it right now everyone is quite bullish on bitcoin and they realized that it may take some time to increase the price as well, they know that bitcoin will not be high right after the halving but they know that bitcoin will eventually increase, so all the people who are buying right now are not buying it to sell in two weeks, they are buying to sell in two months, so the more people who buy to hold means the less there is for people who will sell right away.

So, I may disagree with the experts right now, I am not still totally sure about what is going to happen, this is bitcoin I wouldn't be shocked if plummeted or if it skyrocketed, both sounds valid to me.

You would surely doubt if those whales are calling into something you wouldnt know if this is just of their plan to manipulate things.
So its still on 50-50 if they do really tend to fall the price or not on upcoming halving.So as a trader you would either accumulate or sell
of things and wait up for that dump or fall to buy cheap but we should always expect that things can go on we least expect.
We can see up the previous halving history but it doesnt mean that it will happen again as of this year.

If they have a different theory I don't care about it but I'm supporting the theory it's because Bitcoin is now half of what miners mine and there will be demand and the flow of supply is now cut in half the demand will put the price in half, that has been the theory ever since and I don't see it changing.

If whales predict and recommend something I would do just the opposite. Everyone works and speaks for their own interests, so their predictions can have the effect they want, which is exactly the opposite of what they say.
I know. Sometimes, I don't make sense even for myself. ;D

We will not know yet as the chances that he is correct is not that low knowing that we have problem around the world that need to be solve first. After the halving is the crucial moment of bitcoin price because it can crash any moment as what he predicted if the momentum cannot sustain.

Let's just hope that it will not happen so we can enjoy the market this year especially if the bull season will be triggered.

They should fall imo but doesn't mean they will as its never just one factor in absolute consideration.  What goes up must come down is the fair saying and not a bad guide, we have of course varying supply and demand and that is part of what all the hype for Bitcoin halving is about.    However in my simple take of the market, the speculation and loose holds on BTC for trades far exceeds as potential supply the slight adjustment to block reward, in near term and for some time after upto a year after the event its not that big a deal and only resolves over time to effect lower supply then previous.

Looking at
https://leaderboard.bitfinex.com/

It looks like he is still in this position and currently at BTC price of $9300 he is down like $-20,000,000. It doesn't show on the 1M unrealized profit range because his losses started >30 days. And he obviously didn't get out of the position yet as his realized profits are still $0. No idea why he just doesn't take the loss.

Maybe he knows something we don't. Either way it looks like most likely we won't drop until after the halving at least and by then we can be way over $10K and his losses would be in the >-$25 million range.

I read an interesting stat today. Grayscale and cashapp are responsible for buying 52% of mined supply. That means they'll be eating existing coins if that continues and it's only going to grow from here.

This is why no one who can look beyond a few months should care in the slightest what it does in the near term.

Have said it before but there'll never be a halving as significant as this one. Inflation falling to modest levels just as it takes a step up in legitimacy won't happen again.

I actually don't see his position listed anymore, under realized or unrealized profit. Strange.

Interesting turn of events: if Joe didn't capitulate on his short position, he is capitulating on Crypto Twitter. He's saying his goodbyes and planning to delete his Twitter account:

https://i.imgur.com/Qld5ZVe.png

https://twitter.com/J0E007/status/1258352927963590656

A short is often used for a hedge, a loss in one place can be balanced by holdings elsewhere.   Thats how its often done, because its actually more efficient to trade a position then constantly alter holdings.   They might be just random bettors but my guess is they have a variety of accounts and positions and we cant be sure what is his net balance for BTC.
   I know myself I get paid to short BTC in some places (but it doesnt help that USD rates are low) and other places its possible get a return on holding BTC there so I can do both at the same time and be better off in theory at least.