Bitcoin Forum

Table of contents
Abstract
Introduction
Bitcoin price in 2010
Bitcoin price in 2011
Bitcoin price in 2012 and the first bitcoin halving
Bitcoin price in 2013
Bitcoin price in 2014
Bitcoin price in 2015
Price price in 2016 and the second bitcoin halving
Bitcoin price in 2017
Price in 2018
Bitcoin price in 2019
Bitcoin price in 2020
Halving effects in 2012/2013 in relation to bitcoin price and bitcoin marketcap
Halving events in 2016/2017 in relation to bitcoin price and bitcoin marketcap
Expected outcomes of 2020 bitcoin halving
Marketcap the major determinant
What if the price of bitcoin increase
Advice
Should I invest?
Conclusion


Abstract
Bitcoin has been a successful cryptocurrency, the price has really increased significantly, but in the process, many people have gained, but if someone invested or trade bitcoin at the wrong time, it can lead to losses because there are times bitcoin price reduces too.
Nobody knows maybe bitcoin will increase in this period of halving or later the way it increased in the previous ones, but no matter what, the price will fluctuate in a way that investors and traders will be favoured but only if they have good knowledge about bitcoin investment and trading. The trading I refered to in this whole article is swing, long term trading. 

Introduction
Bitcoin was invented in 2009 by Satoshi Nakamoto, at the time bitcoin was worthless and no real transaction was made at that time until 2010. Bitcoin today is traded on non-centralized exchanges that are independent and because of this, bitcoin have slightly different bitcoin price depending on inididual exchanges. So, my prices may be slightly different from what you knew at certain time in past.

Bitcoin price in 2010
In March, 2010, bitcoin started to increase from as low as $0.0003 to as almost as high as $0.013 in October, 2010.

Bitcoin price in 2011
Bitcoin price further in 2011 increased and got to exactly $1, this was on February, 2011 and the price was later rose significantly to $30.90 in June, 2011 but later decreased and fall below $3 in December, 2011.

Bitcoin price in 2012 and the first bitcoin halving.
Bitcoin price of later rose to $12 before the first halving in November, 2012 and in December of that year, the price increase to $13 which was not significant.

Bitcoin price in 2013
Bitcoin halved in 2012 and this has significant increase in 2013, more people  adopted bitcoin but not like in 2016, but the halving effect really increased the bitcoin price. In April, 2013, bitcoin price increase to almost $270 bitcoin decreased to less than $130 in May, it futher decrease to less than $70 in June, 2013. It later in July rose above $110. Later, in 2013, the price futher increased to over $200 in Novermeber but fortunately bitcoin rallied to $1200 before the end of November. In December, the price crash to $600 but later fluctuate between $600 to 855.

Bitcoin price in 2014
In 2014, the price of bitcoin increased to $1000, but later dropped to less than $800, it continue to fall in February, March and April until it fall below $350. It increase slightly in May but continue to fall after May through out the year, the price was even below $230.

Bitcoin price in 2015
Later in 2015, in March, the price of bitcoin stated to increase, it later increase to over $250 and in November, the price was a over $500

Price price in 2016 and the second bitcoin halving
In the early 2016, the price of bitcoin did not increase but even later decreased below $500 and was fluctuated until it got to $750. The price decreased below $700 before the halving in June, after this period nothing much is significant until 2017.

Bitcoin price in 2017
This was the time bitcoin was really invested on, the rate of bitcoin adoption increased, after the first week of January, bitcoin slightly decreased but after, it increased all months to $19,665.39 in December 16, 2017.

Price in 2018
Since the all time high in Demember 2017, the price fall and reach $15321.93 in January 1st, 2018, the price further decreased and the year did not favour bitcoin at all and the price was $3216 in December 14, 2018.

Bitcoin price in 2019
Bitcoin was $3970 in January, 1st, the price was not really volatile until April when it started to increase from $4000 to over $13000 in June, 16. Later the price dropped to less than $7000 in October. In December, the price was around $7300.

Bitcoin price in 2020
In January 1st, bitcoin price decreased to less than $7000 but bull run started in January, 2nd, to over $10,000 in February, 17. The price later dropped in March to a price of $3500 and now at a price above $9000.


Halving effects in 2012/2013 in relation to bitcoin price and bitcoin marketcap.
The price of bitcoin increased from $12 to over $1000 in the first bitcoin halving. Bitcoin increased 99x the initial value, people bought bitcoin but the halving effect makes the price increased more significantly. The marketcap of bitcoin in Q4 of 2013 was $8.92 billion and this was the time of bitcoin all time high in the period. This proves that halving itself really increase the price if compared to 2016 halving but it is also increased by marketcap but not like 2016

Halving events in 2016/2017 in relation to bitcoin price and bitcoin marketcap.
In the Q4 of 2017, the bitcoin marketcap was $237.62, this was the time of bitcoin all time high in history till now. So, this signifies that bitcoin was more adopted in this period than in the first halving period, but it only grew 33x than the 2016 initial price before halving.

Expected outcomes of 2020 bitcoin halving
It remains days to bitcoin halving in 2020, this will be when it remains only 2,625,000 btc that will be mined, the mining reward will halve from 12.5 btc to 6.25 btc, this will probably occur on May 14, 2020. Many people are hoping that the price of bitcoin will increase after halving, there have been increase some days before halving already, which will can not still call it increase because the halving day has not occurred yet. In this halving or after, marketcap will be the major determination.

Marketcap the major determinant
The price of bitcoin will be determined more by increase in marketcap than halving effect this time, the market cap can be increased only if people adopt bitcoin more. Because, we can not determine the rate at which people will buy bitcoin this time, we can not determine what the price of bitcoin will be but likely that the price will increase. Because more 75% of bitcoin would have been mined before 2020 halving, the supply that will be cut will not have much significant like the increase in marketcap.

What if the price of bitcoin increase
Before bitcoin will reach another all time high, the marketcap will be more than 2017 all time high marketcap because the supply of bitcoin has increased compared to when it reached the all time high in December, 2017. So, to get to all time high may not be possible soon or early.
In first halving, bitcoin price increased 99x
In the second halving, bitcoin price increased 33x
This is an indication that the halving this period can not be significant than last ones. But this is just a prediction.

Advice
If the price since 2010 is carefully analyzed, you will know that crypto traders can also gain not only in the halving time, the price of bitcoin do fluctuate and good traders will turn it to profit. I will advice anyone that want to invest on bitcoin to always look at the price chart daily, setting price alerts because bitcoin can increase or decrease at any time, because during this price of bitcoin that really increased over time, there are still some periods even after halving that did not favour bitcoin in which the price really fall. So, this time is not just about Investment but to also have good knowledge about bitcoin investment and trading.

Also, about people that have no knowledge but only want to invest, check the prices above, you will know that you can lose, in the first halving, the price of bitcoin was over $1200 in 2013 but later decreased to less than $300 what if you have invested and lose. Another is when the price was at $19665 in December, 2017 but the price later dropped below $4000 the following year in 2018. Some people lost that time too. Make sure you know about bitcoin before trading or investing in it, do not just invest because of halving.

Should I invest
I will still have to repeat this, have good knowledge about bitcoin investment and trading because it will help you. If you invest, it means you are supporting bitcoin adoption and your investment will help because it can be small but it is part of the bitcoin marketcap.

Conclusion
Bitcoin investment and swing trading is good and profitable, but do not just do this because of the coming halving, learn about it, and take more time to learn. You can invest because your investment counts and helps in the bitcoin valuation.

What I noticed is that halving can just ba a hype, if you check the price of bitcoin very well, it did not skyrocket immediately after halving, it only increasely just little. The first halving was in November 2012 but the price increased significantly in 2013 in November. It is good to wait for the appropriate time before investing. It is good to just be an experienced trader so that you can profit from the whole price volatility.

In 2016, there is no much price trending up after halving also, I checked the coinmarketcap and I realized that the price started to increase in 2017 January till December. What you are trying to say there is that the increase can not just start like some people that do not know how this work will think, you are right.

Lastly, irrespective of bitcoin halving this time or not, the price of bitcoin will still increase and decrease, but we need the price to over long time increase so that miners are favored, if they are encouraged, they will buy more miners, the more mining hashes miners generate, the more secure bitcoin blockchain will be and not prone to 51% attack.

You are right but in addition, halving is not a hype for experienced bitcoin traders and investors because they know all these and what can happen later but can be a hype for fomo people and people that have no knowledge about bitcoin than to just invest. They can invest when the price is already high and lose.

I read graphic price on wiki

https://en.bitcoinwiki.org/upload/en/images/thumb/c/cf/Bitcoin_history_price.jpg/800px-Bitcoin_history_price.jpg

https://en.bitcoinwiki.org/upload/en/images/thumb/a/aa/Bitcoin_history_2008-2010.png/400px-Bitcoin_history_2008-2010.png

https://en.bitcoinwiki.org/wiki/Bitcoin_history
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin#Prices_and_value_history

We can only wait until bitcoin halving will come and then we will be able to know what events might happen when bitcoin halving comes. It's your decision whether to invest or not. Knowledge must come first since you need to understand how bitcoin halving and bitcoin works. Investing also depends whether you invest long term or short term by holding your bitcoins. I'm sure those who have lots of money and want to invest then 2019 was tge right time to invest until the price goes up.

I think it might be better if you simply include a historic price chart of Bitcoin, then leave some notes one biggest price movements for each year. About biggest events, like hacks, hardforks, etc. About halving, if you spend time, you can search in Wall Observer, there are so many good posts with good charts to illustrate. I don't save them so I can not give them to you now.
https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/
Wall Observer BTC/USD - Bitcoin price movement tracking & discussion (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=178336.0)

The price of each currency fluctuates because the crypto market is not stable Even if the market is analyzed properly, the difference in price is often not understood. So I think we'll have to wait and see what the Bitcoin price history is and the events that are expected in the next half The exact information cannot be given until Bitcoin comes in half. It is possible to estimate the price a bit So we all have to hold on to Bitcoin now and wait We also need to analyze the trading charts to understand the trade market by researching different places.

Yeah, these have purely happened in previous Bitcoin block halvings. But what I notice this time of block halving is extremely different for previous. I think we are starting to create a new path (not following those previous block halvings), so this is kinda risky for everyone, we all know that Bitcoin is extremely volatile, so expect the unexpected.

Well, people invest for ROI. if you're an entrepreneur or an investors you'll understand the difference between investment and support.

So,  before investing I advice you carefully know the actual ROI before taking the risk. Don't do it if there is no feasible ROI because it should be a profitable risk.

I've only heard of bitcoin before in the news but I wasn't really interested until after it reached the ATH, plus a few months later around May of 2018.




I really didn't know what I was getting into and I only tried btc, eth and a few other altcoins as well. So I hodl and waited for the turnaround to happen until the end of the year but to no avail, the bearish trend remained.




Unfortunately, I was in-between jobs during the 1st quarter of 2019 and couldn't hodl no more, then I cashed out instead unfortunately at the wrong time. If I had known, although in hindsight I had a gut feeling that the bear market wouldn't last that long. But if my circumstances were different, I would've really hodl until it went back up again to at least recoup my initial loss.





Now, moving forward to the coming halving... I'm currently on the fence on whether or not I'll be getting some bitcoins now, or maybe later after the halving?!

Well, we cannot day the accurate value of bitcoin when the bitcoin halving happens because no one can predict this one, the value bitcoin go high and low so it is really hard to know what will happen in the future, but for me, I believe that bitcoin will reach a maximum of $50,000 and that is just my prediction based on what happens from the previous halving.

To invest or not? For me, it is advisable for us to invest how because we will gain profit for sure when the bitcoin hanging happens, but it will still depend on you, but always be careful when doing so because the bitcoin price is not continuously increasing, it is still going down for some other time.

Why do you believe that the right price for BTC is $50.000? Is it just a feeling or you did some math to come up with that price. Personally, I think that no one can predict the right BTC price because there is no right price. The right price is the price that buyer is willing to pay and the seller is willing to sell for.

As for investing, everyone should calculate for himself whether to invest or not. Just don't invest money for every day expenses.

I also don't think a 33x or 99x increase is likely. It'd turn BTC into a million bucks which is too much and could damage the markets actually for some time.

If there's a rise I'm expecting, it'd probably be a 5-15x increase making BTC worth maximum a hundred grand. But still, it's uncertain and there's always a possibility that things go wrong. My best advice is: if you can take the risk and are willing to, do it. If you're looking for large profits, be careful. You never know when a risky investment goes wrong due to simple reasons such as wrong timing.

This is a very different halving we are in right now, each halving gives us a different perspective, the supply coming from mining is very small now, we are in the middle of pandemic two scenario that can give us different depends on how the investors reacts, but I still see another all time high.

First halving - 99x increase
Second halving - 33x increase aka 1/3
Third halving - 1x increase ? :D

Could be that way, specially with current situation in the world. I would love if bitcoin makes at least 2x after halving, but that will be "close" to ATH, which was reached when bitcoin was on hype. Is bitcoin today on hype ? No ! That is why I don't expect the price to go high aggressively. But I assume price could go 20-30% up.

I would be a hypocrite if I'd say I didn't wish for BTC to reach another ATH after the halving, I'm definitely all in for that once it happens! ;D

For now, my initial goal only would be to recoup my previous loss before when I was still a newbie (this is already a break-even point for me if it does happen), then this will certainly boost my investing confidence moving forward.

Next goal after that would be for me to hodl, buy and sell crypto more often (do some day trading) later.

No halving will be the same. Each one will have different circumstances and effects.

I'd say this one will be the most significant in retrospect. Bitcoin is still nowhere near centre stage but the inflation rate is about to fall below most regular currencies.

And it's easy to forget what a torrent of coins previous block rewards bought with still a huge percentage of coins to come.

This'll be the first time it may dawn on people that supply is finite and slowly beginning to wind down.

That's something that hasn't needed to cross anyone's mind until recent times but it's going to have a monstrous effect.

Future halvings will gradually dwindle in effect but this one and the next are the biggies.

If you want to bet on the fact that the price will move exactly the same way it did in the past 2 halvings, then it'd be 11x this time - not 1x. That goes around my opinion that I foresee a max price of ~100k. Price went up & down 20-30% in the past few months already, that isn't a weird move for BTC. It's volatile, less than it used to be but it still is.

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Never took fiat to compare its inflation with BTC's. Very interesting point there. So from your personal perspective, do you expect BTC to go wild once people start realizing that its inflation is going down?

Thank you so much for your insight, I'm taking notes! 8)




Interesting perspectives and insights you guys are providing. :o

I am hopeful that it does happen after the halving. I am not in a rush to sell and I'm planning to buy some just before the halving. ;D

I really appreciate this.

Not instantly but it'll be a cumulative thing that sneaks up.

When you think about it, the whole time we've been here an absolute mountain of coins have been pouring on to the scene every day. It's the norm. It's what we've grown used to and I'm sure most people don't take the time to think it over or question it. We've always talked about 'fixed supplies' when we've been up to our necks in new coins needing disposing of.

This'll be the first glimmer of a future where coins won't have a giant bill attached to them from mining and if you want a large number of them there won't be a totally dependable and willing seller. Up until now it's been over half a million new coins arriving per year. In the past it's been several million. As that fades away that's going to have humongous effects and people have rarely pondered the massive dilution that's taken place so far. When it's on its way out they certainly will.

There was just one year when the year's lowest price of BTC was lower than any of the previous year's lowest points. The rule is simple: buy btc!

In other words, due to halving... inflation will go down (not instantly but it'll be cumulative thing that sneaks up).



Also, the limited supply versus a growing demand (due to the scarcity of btc) will be the driving force towards.... future ATH's?

I'm just trying to make sure that I'm understanding and following the discussion correctly. Please feel free to correct me if I misunderstood.

Inflation goes down instantly to 1.8% per year the moment it halves. That doesn't mean all that much for price if there isn't demand. Demands comes and goes. When demand does arrive that rubs against the reduced production rate, note that it's not supply which people usually mention. Existing coins are supply too.



Yes. If we look at the bubble of 2013 there were maybe at most a few tens or hundreds of thousands of people getting excited, perhaps over a million at the absolute max, and their only option to buy was through some pretty obscure routes. You had to seek them out, some were seriously dodgy. At the same time 1.3 million new coins were arriving per year and approximately 65% of all coins had been mined.

If there was a bubble in a couple of years from now it's quite likely tens of millions of people would be getting excited with much smoother and much more prominent, legitimate and capable on and off ramps. There'll be just over 300,000 new coins arriving per year and around 90% of all coins will have been mined.

In that 7-9 years a whole quarter of all the supply that'll ever be was mined. That final 10% will take 120 years to arrive.

Of course prices are much higher than back then but there was no such thing as institutional money, there'll be many times more people getting involved and education about it was vastly lower.

I am thinking of purchasing some bitcoins which platform I can use? I am in united kingdom. also is their a pro tradder whom I can follow and replicate my investment?

I would go with Kraken or Coinbase. Both are long established and have faster payments for GBP now. Coinbase Pro, Coinbase's exchange, has lower fees than Coinbase

There are a million people out there claiming to be pro traders. It's impossible to tell who's an idiot and who's any good, and even the best wind up failing at some point. Most people would be better off buying and holding. If you do decide you want to trade spend a lot of time researching first. Don't jump straight into it.

My advice is never take unnecessary risks because of the upcoming halving, there will be lots of FOMO and whales might decide to dump on you all, I sold my Bitcoin at 10k a day ago and buy back at 9700$ now Bitcoin is at 8700$, I never expected that quick dump, I guess whales are already at work

True. I have nothing to say against your words, I like the way you think. To be honest, I've been constantly aware of the fixed supply and decreased inflation but I always ignored it until recently. Regrets or not, the key point is that I'm now demanding BTC as I'm one of those starting to see how financially hard it's getting to gather even half a coin (especially when you live in a country with much lower wages than developed ones) - getting to the exact point you're trying to make. :)

And that's pretty much what's happening at this point now isn't? :-[ It seems that the whales always have all the fun! But this is basically what we're expecting to happen, it's always been volatile. This halving is a bit tricky though, a lot of other factors are into play right now to consider.

It is good not to sell for now but as well have all seen now, it is very possible that bitcoin may fall in price but its price increasing is very certain but we need to make sure we are not affected during the price fall if possible it will occur.

This is not the time to exaggerate how this year's halving will be like. Previous halving that occurred, we saw how it all went. This year's halving won't be an exception to that. Trade when you supposed to and be patient enough to wait

We can easily analyze the history of Bitcoin but no one can give an exact figure of how much it will cost half of its events  We have to wait and see No one can say when prices will go up and down. However, if we invest now, we can make a lot of profit in the upcoming events It is likely to surpass half the event by the end of this year Positive thinking and patience will wait.

I like the way the OP chronicled the whole Bitcoin price from start to the present moment. It gives Bitcoin a proper perspective for newcomers. Need I also mention that 2017 was my grand entry into this industry. I saw a lot of spikes and volatility but sadly didn't even know how to pull a profitable trade. I saw projects go up and I also saw them crash and vanish totally. It was the year a lot people screamed "bubble bubble". It's a wonder no one calls Bitcoin a bubble any more 😁

Yes, I learned this type of lesson very well before already and I'm now more in a position not to succumb to that previous financial situation that I had before wherein I was limited with my options, thus leaving me no choice but to succumb to the pressure of selling instead rather than waiting for the bull to come back again.