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This is one of those weird things where etfs seem to have dropped 60% initially and recovered a bit while actual housing hasn't. A lot of the current market is a bit unsustainable since current rent in most places in the UK is double the monthly cost of a 26-30 year mortgage (though I accept the landlord has other bills and they're taking a risk with their investment somewhat)...

With a lot of jobs being cut in many countries, we may see a slump in prices but I don't know if demand is still going to be there or not still (because housing was already unplayable for a lot of people so a lot of it is propped up by investments anyway here).

So do you think a crash is coming and would you predict when it would be? Last time it was 18 months (back in 2006) afaik.

There's been some fearmongering about the collapse of Airbnb rentals, which has been a quickly growing mortgage-backed sector: Experts Say Struggling Airbnb Hosts May Be Forced to Sell Their Properties (https://money.com/coronavirus-airbnb-mortgage/)


Probably too small of a sector to singlehandedly cause a crash though.

I would set my sights a couple years out. With the last US housing bubble, prices peaked in Q1 2007 and bottomed out in Q1 2009, and later went back near the lows in late 2011. It takes a while for economic shocks like this to truly sink in.

^ Let me express my own opinion about this. It probably crashes but the predictions of when will not be precise because during this crisis a lot of changes are happening even the least that we expect got affected especially on the global economy. Real estate will not be exempted from it for investors may prioritize other important things after the pandemic that may cause a bad affect on them. However, probably after recovering from the crisis then that will be the time people will go back into real estate and their market may start to recover as well. Nevertheless, this might only be my presumption everything are always subject to change depending on how people will deal with them.

All we know the reason of this crash. Worldwide global economy has been crashing and real estate isn't out of global economies. Since lots of peoples lost their real life job and other businesses crashed as well so people have lack of hand cash. So usually they wouldn't interested to invest on real estate business. Most likely when global epidemic will end then real estate business would start recover slowly. But we can't expect sudden recover on that field. The world need time to recover these crisis, at least probably need a year to become normal situation IMO. Before that we have to wait to overcome from epidemic and we don't know exactly when it would happen.

My point was that I don't think physical real estate has crashed yet... But it may be due to soon. I think real estate is normally given to take a hit when the market looks as if it is recovering and then interest rates go up and mortgages don't look as good to a lot of investors.

Airbnb is always a risky investment choice and I don't think many people who care about their returns/risk have it as a main investment option - there's always loads of additional stuff that comes up now and then about licensing and other things that may hit the sector at some point. Afaik, they're not currently needing a licence in most places as it's peer to peer.


Yeah people put faith into real estate afaik when stuff like this happens because people are still going to want housing...

Totally ridiculous property prices have become sacred to many people despite the fact that it damages society at every level. They'll do anything to keep it propped up so I would expect all types of weirdness to keep plates spinning.

Look what they've done in the UK with shared ownership, help to buy, first time buyer savings products etc. All they've done is made it harder for the people at the bottom while giving them the illusion that they're getting ahead. The people at the top are still golden. No way will they let that change without a fight.

Of course real estate prices will fall a lot including commercial parts.
As for now a lot of people are left without job like OP mentioned. When there high supply / low demand = price fall. See what happened on grid oil, a thing that history has never seen. Of course no one will pay you to rent their house/apartment but prices will fall a lot. Also there is another bonus factor too: Some people were depend on income from rents. If you set high prices, there will be zero demand. You need money to survive too, so this kind of people will lower their rent prices to get customers and earn some money for themselves.

Serious crash will come and it may last for some years. That's great at some point: Products and life is expensive because of these rental prices, on long term if there are low rental prices and normal prices on products, that will have a good impact on people's life. Money won't be easily made from service offers but from regular work.

This is one of the big possibilities out there but the real estate market could be just one part of a bigger problem, I'm talking about the potential recession we will be having due to pandemic. You already pointed out that a lot of jobs have been lost and the whole point about that is a lot of businesses are doing retrenchment or downsizing due to lack of revenue coming in. Other than the job losses we are experiencing we also have seen the stocks took a hit earlier compared to other markets add all of that together we can see that some economists are right that the recession is within reach. Of course the real estate market will be hit as well all of the assets people can liquidate for cash will always be vulnerable in these kinds of situation.

I would not talk about a crash, but of a correction, but I shall add it was much expected.
If you own a large house in the country, I don't think its value will be lowered. The big change will be in places where prices are just stupid. That's San Francisco, Vancouver or Venice. In Venice (Italy), there's only one third of the people compared to 50 years ago. Because most houses and apartments have been turned into B&B, or are on Airbnb.

It's all tourism related, real estate prices will only change in places where tourism is high.

I have to confess that I don't closely follow or really understand how booms and busts happen in the real estate market.  On the other hand, I did learn a lot by reading a few books about the 2006-2008 mortgage/banking meltdown--in particular how mortgages are packaged into securities which are then sold to bank and other high net worth investors and the effect of giving mortgages to people who never stood a chance of paying them.  It was pure craziness back then.

Hopefully some lessons were learned since then, and I know the US government regulating agencies were keeping a close eye on the banks and so forth--but who knows.

I guess my partially informed opinion is that there might be a downturn in the real estate market, but it would be nothing like the 2008 debacle.  Anyway, I've never owned property so I'm not personally fretting about it.

I am also thinking about real estate. Because according to the economic philosophy of some people with experience in the real estate market, the value of real estate will be the same as the stock market in the next 6 months. Currently, the real estate services in my country are frozen, the demand for land is not much due to disease. The price of land is too high compared to its value, so the price adjustment will take place early this year.

Of course I belive. The US -China trade war is still ongoing. It is still in balance and it is unknown who will win. The world is facing with coping/dealing with the Covid 19 pandemic - which is plunging the economy. All economic indicators are bad, debt of governments increases, FED continuously prints money to promote stock market to recover ... But all are only temporary solutions. According to history, 10 years is the cycle of an economic crisis and the latest economic crisis is 2008. Therefore, I believe that economic crisis is coming sooner or later. The United States is weakening due to the declining strength of the PetroDollar, China and its allies such as North Korea and Russia. This war, whoever wins, will lose a lot and our job is to observe, watch and take appropriate steps.

Do you think so?

We have a different problem this time: many millions of people and businesses who could previously pay their mortgages no longer can. Some jobs and business will surely be recovered but there are emerging signs of lasting damage to come, whether you look at crashing commodity prices or bankruptcies and permanent layoffs. Whether that spills into a banking crisis is also a whole other question. That's also possible, but what I'm interested in here is whether this recession will flood the housing market with supply and pressure prices down.

Beyond the typical backdrop of high unemployment and expected resulting delinquencies, there are other elements to consider too. The economic crunch and normalization of work from home schemes could facilitate an overall shift towards commercial downsizing and remote working. That could pressure commercial real estate downwards as companies close offices, and also residential prices in surrounding areas. Really expensive markets like Silicon Valley come to mind.

I think we just need to wait and see what the recovery (or lack thereof) looks like. It was in late 2007 that housing prices peaked, and it wasn't until the final Obama stimulus ("the Recovery Act") passed in 2009 that prices bottomed out. I'm optimistic for recovery but my lenses are set for years, not months.

We can expect a correction, I won't be surprised about, but with the current situation, the market will recover by the end of the year I guess. We're not in a so "critical phase". Not really a problem knowing that this industry is a long-term investment over 20 years and/or if you're already an owner of several apartments for example and /or pay everything cash.

I admit if someone borrowed money from bank to buy an apartment and monetize it with Airbnb it's not the same story, but it was a risk to consider before
In my country, we are in one of the most active periods in terms of transactions usually, and currently, it's dead. But I'm not worried about the market at all. In fact, you can make good deals.

If the confinement lasts longer, it will lead to higher unemployment, a drop in household income, and in this case, it will be different maybe. More if the banks stop their low-interest rates


What's the point with real estate? I don't get it

I agree this real estate business has not crashed (yet). That doesn't make sense since many people lost their job, or at least experiencing significant income reduction. Perhaps partially because the gov pouring lots of money so that people still can survive without selling/mortgaging their houses, and banks soften its NPL policy.

Obviously, this situation cannot stay for a long time. People must return to normal before everything collapses.

It's a factor but not the main driver in the most deranged places. Look at places like Vancouver. That's Chinese money that's been driving things. It's not tourism, it may be citizenship tourism.


Commercial stuff has been much more wobbly than residential in the UK for a long time. It's been closely following the decline of town centre shopping. They're very separate markets and no doubt it's going to be absolutely mangled by the lack of shopping, crippling of hospitality and increased home working.

In way it could be worse for economies than residential because the heavyweight investors go for that, or did in the past. In the UK local councils have been left so broke a lot have been buying up commercial property in a desperate search for returns. They ain't gonna get them and us lot will have to eat the pain.

Agree.

It hasn't yet come but if the pandemic keeps going on and it will eat most of the landlords' money, they have no choice but the resorting to selling their real estate assets just to sustain themselves.

And those who will be badly affected and nearly doing this are those landlords who haven't paid in full or those who don't have savings left.

It hasn't crashed yet but we can see it declining obviously because of the global problem that we have. People are pulling out their investments every where like in stock market, oil industry even in crypto market whose category will fall into the economic side on which real estate is also belong. I guess property owners have stopped asking for their client's payment of course every one is suffering during these times. I am living in an apartment, luckily my landlady is very considerate although they haven't receive my rental fee as well as my neighbors for 2 months and a half.

Real estate is not collapsing but is just a situation new to the world, the covid-19 pandemic that is causing hardship because countries are losing focus or rather channeling resources to covid-19 issues. Also some land owners are cutting off their hodlings as there are no new investment on the area or real estate. It will come up when this problem is gone.


Mortgages, landlords are a little human this time around and I guess that is because of the reality in the faces of people. The situation of difficult to cope with this time.

Well, considering there is a renting problem right now, real estate should be dropping in value for a while right now, I don't know why it hasn't. Think about it if you owned a bunch of buildings and people are denying to pay for the rent, you are making no profit at all and you are basically going broke as well.

I understand that as a leftist myself the ownership of many buildings sounds capitalist and I should not support that, however in this situation the trouble is with the system and not with the people that own the buildings, if the system gives them that right, they should own that many buildings, there is nothing against it, and these are not the people who make you work for minimum salary or even hire illegal immigrants to lower the cost and fire you instead, no these are people who worked all their lives and made money and bought a house, that is barely rich honestly.

The job losses go way beyond tourism.

63% of homes in the US are mortgaged. Unemployment could hit 20%+ and is expected to stay above 10% for the next 1.5 years at least. You don't see any connection between high debt and high unemployment? No possibility of foreclosures on the horizon?

There is already some fear of systemic weakness in the mortgage sector too: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-the-hard-truth-about-the-mortgage-markets-that-isnt-being-told-2020-04-02

Yes, citizenship tourism, but will this last? There used to be quite many wealthy Chinese willing to invest outside of China, this may change.

I hadn't given much thought about mortgages. It's hard to imagine how many people won't be able to pay back what they should, hence leading to bank seizures. That could cause a crash in some places, but I expect politics to play a role here. I know millions have lost their jobs, but turning them into millions of homeless, would be a tragedy. I'm sure politicians are thinking about it. They could write a new law stating that people who have lost their job could get a 6 months extension of their mortgage without penalty.

It's already here, at least where I live (Spain). Property prices have dipped 20-30% in some cases, most especially those that were being rented out to tourists. And I can only forecast further dips with the rising numbers of unemployment, foreclosures and everything that is yet to come.

I think in the UK you have to prove you have sufficient liquidity to pay off a loan and maintain it or you have to get loans that don't surpass 20% of general annual income (this could be completely wrong though). Landlords that have been here a while will not have much to worry about if they were preparing for a crash to pick up new properties, some have threefold in certain growing regions here in value so a lot of liquidity could probably still be found even if the rate halves or something.


Saw a news article today asying a lot of real estate has started to stagnate due to covid 19 and it'll cause more problems over the next year or so immediately for definite...

A lot of people will struggle to do viewings and get listings and if people want to stay in a house to see how it feels are you going to have a 2 week period between people so no one catches anything how's that going to work?

A lot of people will say you can do virtual viewings but who trusts estate agents not to "touch up" photos or hide creatin things... Painting the day before a dry spell and then pretending there is no damp/mould is possible if you can't smell it or anything...

Real Estate crash is coming soon, but its not going to hit immediately atleast where I am living, because still people are under lockdown and enjoying government offers at the moment but once everything becomes normal, all the economy will restart their economy growth so it will take lot of time to increase the cash flow in their economy, no cash flow means no demand so no profits for anyone so landlord will be forced to decrease the rent or they will get nothing.

Sounds like just short-term and vacation rentals. They've been hit hard since nobody has been traveling. I've seen some stories about Airbnb hosts slashing rates 50% and such, desperate for bookings. There are signs of a rebound coming with lockdowns ending however: https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/airbnb-booking-data-points-to-v-shaped-recovery-in-the-us-301056322.html


A real crash in the traditional housing market would take a lot longer than a couple months to happen, especially with corona virus mortgage deferments temporarily stopping the bleeding.

Lack of tourism already is fuelling real estate crash. Those that were renting their apartments to tourists thru Airbnb are now trying to get native renters. That is already decreasing rent prices. Lower rents will force some landowners to sell some apartments. That pressure now that everyone is uncertain what will come next will push prices of real estate down.  At the same time we will have inflation since everything will get more expensive because of higher costs because of covid-19 precautions.

Good to know. Unfortunately, I don't like Spain very much, but I'm waiting for the same thing to happen in the countries I love.

Real estate prices should fall, because many people will not have money, and selling will become much more difficult. The only option is if the government issues some kind of preferential mortgage in order to revive demand for this sector.

Real estate prices (and stock/bond markets) won't crash in earnest until central banks like the federal reserve run out of bailout capital.

In the united states real estate construction and development has failed to maintain pace with population growth. This has contributed towards real estate being a scarce(r) commodity. This decreased supply in contrast to population drives real estate prices higher.

On the opposite end of the spectrum, growing wealth and wage inequality coupled with inflated taxes significantly reduced the number of consumers that can afford to purchase real estate. These conditions represent diminished demand. Which depresses prices downwards.

Where these two underlying conditions meet is the point at which the price of real estate is determined.

As mentioned the federal reserve has been known to inject trillions of dollars into markets in an effort to stabilize them. 2008 was a prime example of how real estate in subprime mortgage markets carry a potential to damage global markets. Derivatives being tied up in real estate could illustrate how the fed would stabilize those markets to prevent similar disasters.

Fed bailouts could be a reasonable solution if the corona virus crisis is averted soon. Over the long term however, it could prove to be insufficient.

We are facing this pandemic outbreak because of the virus spreading and one of the affected is the worldwide economy and some of the people today are still recovering and some of them does not have enough money to make a restart on their life there is a chance if they are going to sell their house and lot to make more capital to make a new life. But still, it depends on them because the real state businesses do not make any changes because it is an asset it's a huge loss to them if they are trying to sell their property. This is just only IMO and I respect others but still, we need to wait to finish this outbreak and take a look if this will happen or not.


Still, it depends on the people if they are trying to sell for sure many investors will grab this kind of opportunity to make a lot of property and assets.

We see that most states have taken too harsh measures to combat the spread of coronavirus and thereby have caused significant damage to economies. Business structures were also hit hard. Many of them simply ceased their activities. Therefore, definitely we will soon enter into a tough global economic crisis. With such crises, everything depreciates, including real estate.
However, this will be a good chance for the first time to prove itself to a decentralized cryptocurrency. We hope that during a crisis, cryptocurrency, on the contrary, will be in demand and grow in value.

Lockdown makes general business activities face major obstacles, including investing, renting, and buying property. The situation of the property market that was hit by the Covid-19 pandemic instead of eliminating property consumers. The market remains large and it's just that the priority now is more on safety and health. The decline in the investor segment is more influenced by psychological factors in delaying purchases rather than purchasing power.

Even though the property sector is experiencing a decline in demand, it is one sector that is still growing. The existence of a pandemic will be followed by a discount on property prices and tightening the requirements of the changes. For those who have money, of course, the low price of property means it's time to buy both for needs and investments. The weakest point of hotels, land, and retail properties now creates good investment opportunities.

With a lockdown, the millennial consumption budget can be diverted for property investment. Even though it is a medium and long term investment, but investment in this sector is relatively safe.

Although many were hit but there are also businesses that still exist and even grow, namely small and medium businesses that are integrated with sophisticated technology or so-called small and medium businesses 4.0

With the economic crisis experienced by many people due to the corona virus, real estate investment is crashing. People nowadays focus
on food costs everyday than thinking about investing, the impact of the corona virus is huge in the investment world. Many people lose
their income, because it doesn't work anymore. Even investors this year will not be interested in investing in real estate. For the present
condition it is not good decision investing in real estate. Safer and more profitable investment in gold or cryptocurrency.

I think the world crisis is comming soon. Many signals that We can see: public debt increased, businesses went bankrupt continuously, and countries simultaneously printed money to ease the burden on the government and most recently, FED's action against the Covid -19 epidemic. The US-China trade war will continue and it will be the trigger for this economic crisis

When the economic crisis occurred, all assets were drastically reduced. Especially for real estate, when people now only need with food and clothing. If the corona virus epidemic continues until the end of Q3 this year, it is likely that the US will have to be the first country to suffer the economic crisis and drag many countries around. This is the time when real estate is freezing and demand has greatly reduced since the beginning of 2020. To me, there will surely be a strong adjustment in the next few months.

We don't know for sure, but it might happen soon because people now are lost their job while they stay at home, they can earn money like usual, many unemployment wants to search for the job, but the job is not open as before.

People need money to buy food, drink and else, and they need to survive at this moment. If the government cannot serve them, I think sooner or later there will be a demonstration from the people because they need to live. I am worried about this situation because this can trigger the crime increase in every city. But I pray that will not happens, and everything will be back normal.

I don’t believe in real estate fall right now. Why?
Today's youth have a completely different model of consumption. If even at the end of the last century/at the beginning of the XX century, everyone believed that they needed their own housing, even if it was a mortgage (hi 2008), now young people prefer to rent housing to preserve their territorial mobility.
As a result, we get that some people buy housing (even if again in the mortgage) and pay for it at the expense of young people who rent this housing. This is quite an interesting phenomenon of the money cycle between generations that began just after the final conditional strengthening of the EU and the it boom in America and India (after the collapse of the dot com bubble)

Considering right now there is really that many people who would be willing to consider buying a house, I think we can't really say it is a market crash but more like a market stopping. I mean normally for the market to crash, you need to have houses cheaper, and your house probably worths the same right now, depends on the nation as well but all around the world buying a house must be the last thing people are thinking right now.

So, there has to be money to be made from this market before you can talk about a crash, right now people are not selling nor buying, so it stopped. However, when all of this is over and people go back into investment and everything goes back to normal, there could be one in the future, but that is like at least 6 months away if you ask me.

Pessimistic read about the state of the housing market: Why ‘the next big shoe to drop’ in the U.S. economy could hit by July (https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-next-big-shoe-to-drop-in-the-us-economy-could-hit-by-july-2020-05-13)


Makes sense that it would take several months for the shock to sink into the market. I still can't find much data about just how big the short term rental market is, but between that supply, eventual foreclosures, and falling demand from tightening mortgage standards, prices should be pressured down eventually.

this does not happen in all countries, maybe only a few...
Real estate prices in my city have remained stable, there is no indication of price reductions, perhaps because many are still not experiencing panic. in my country, real estate is a business that is not affected by this epidemic.

In few countries the real estate demand will fall for sure because business are impacted, employees may lose their job or may not find it easily, this all lead to less purchasing power which means people would not have money or cannot take risk to buy the real estate property at this time.

"Man may come and man may go , but people won't stop making babies . "
The population graph is ever increasing. Real estate is a place where apparently everyone can make money at the right time. There are countries with such a big population density that in one room 10 people are sleeping. I do think real estate is something which is not going to show significant amount of dip ever .
There might be instances where it goes down but trust me it is just a matter of time before it all goes up again .
Multinational companies are always looking for a piece of Land where they can establish their own network. Even if they people cannot afford these companies pay a hefty sum . I do think real estate is the safest bet you can ever play.

Each company usually sets up its own thing but in the case of real estate is completely different Real Estate Is Not Stable Like other bets real estate prices fluctuate and fluctuate The rise of real estate betting depends on the competitor. The more competitors there are the more demand there will be Nothing can affect real estate. We can easily make money by betting it will take some time and we will have to wait The risk here is much less and it will depend on the trader how he will set up.