Bitcoin Forum

Only 2 days to rewards [https://tokenview.com/en/half]halving [/https://tokenview.com/en/half]and we just witness $10,000 bitcoin again.

But still feel wired. May be next few months won't be easy

What's your idea? Any opinion about network security, market or anything you wish to say are fine.

Your site says:

Isn't every 210.240 blocks? Not 210.000

I don't know where you got your number from, but Bitcoin wiki tells clearly that halving happens every 210000 blocks:

It just barely touch $10k pre-halving though, the current price is $9600-$9700. Why you feel weird though? This market is very volatile, ups and downs you should be used to it. Network security? It will still be the same, majority of miners are honest so I don't think that we should feel threaten in any way just because we are approaching halving. Market is different though, as I have said, it is very unstable, we really don't know what the future hold. Maybe we can see some minor dump after the halving, so this growth will continue and might push the price above 5 digits again.

Sorry I must had a misunderstanding. Yeah, it's exactly every 210,000 blocks.

Are you asking about the price of bitcoin after the halving ?
I think in the last few days bitcoin pumped due to hype of halving and right after the halving bitcoin will dump in shorter time frame.

Not surprising to see those since that's the normal flow of bitcoins but I don't really think we can feel the real effect of it right now since there are so many struggles which can effect its state and maybe those pumping things will start on next year since I assume we will see the same pattern just like what happen on year 2017 but I don't expect that we can reach to its ATH price since we are now in bad shape due to the pandemic strikes globally.

yes, help me out here ..

we know for sure that if there's anyone who is definitely NOT going to sell any btc after the halving takes place, this is the miners.

Ok, he miners won't sell.
We won't sell either but we won't even buy, because we are the smart guys (not me, you of course).

So, who the f**k is going to buy btc?

that's my simple question :)


ps: I assume mediatic hype about the halving already had its peak last week, so unless a new high is reached I guess main-stream media won't be talking about bitcoin anymore for the time being

I'm seeing some shake off already with price. The volatility as expected won't go away. The price got to $10,000 today and returned back , taking off $400, reminding us of the last halving period. I still expect a rapid movement up after we see this halving.

you can't compare halvings with one another just like that in my opinion: local price movements, especially within smaller TF, really don't mean that much.

Context also is completely different: expecting that price will follow the footsteps of last patterns may still happen, but isn't the right mindset in my opinion

Yeah, I don't think the price hit $10k in the past week, though it's been close.

No idea what he's thinking about this, and I'm wondering how much he understands about things (not that I'm an expert myself or anything).

And I have to say, wow--I lost track of time and hadn't been thinking about the halving all that much lately and thus didn't realize we're this close.  Frankly, I don't know what to expect as far as price movement.  Seeing as bitcoin is very close to $10k, the market might already have reacted in anticipation, and we may not see much more in the way of big gains this year.  But I've been so very blatantly wrong in the past that I'm not even going to guess what's going to happen.

It has been noticed that bitcoin rejecting multiple times from $10K zone. Although only 2 days remaining for halving bit price start dumping from today which is forcast for a sudden dump in my opinion. This $10K zone is very complicated zone for bitcoin, when reach this zone bitcoin price can't grow due to huge sell off. Same thing happening currently even there is halving FOMO. Holders don't wanna wait for more increase and start selling off. But looking healthy still now, likely to bump anytime before halving since there is whales for play around it.

I think OP isn't fully aware about halving and that's why he have security concern. For your clarification halving isn't something like hardfork or related with price, so there shouldn't be any security concerns. Halving will reduce mining reward to half, that's it.

Even if the miners don't sell, more people will buy bitcoin. Do you think it's only the miners who have bitcoin? No, it is not. People will buy and sell bitcoin, especially if they want to make big money from bitcoin. We already see that the market is not just the miners, but the market has many people who want to make a profit.

Many people trade in the market. We don't know who are they, but the price still moves up and down like what we see every day. But we don't know how many bitcoin prices will increase after halving. We can wait for halving to finish the process while the price still up and down, and we will see what will happen with the price.

yes but the point is it's still a game for amateurs.

can you go into a bank and buy bitcoin? no (and don't say this would be the opposite of what bitcoin means because that just isn't the case)
can the average investor buy bitcoin like he would do with apple amazon or facebook? no. ok, he can still buy futures from cme but that doesn't mean buying bitcoin of course and you wouldn't agree because of course you probably think futures are evil..

so, if we are all smart (you not me, as I already said) and all bitcoin amateurs are smart, who the funk buys bitcoin?

Bitcoin has recovered remarkably well since the March 12 dump. Bitcoin has gone to the 10k level many times but has been rejected again and again. Since it is a pre-halving pump, it can be said that there can be a big change in the market price after halving. The future of the market cannot be predicted, perhaps something can be predicted. I think it could be a dump after halving, which could be caused by some miners. Since the block reward will be half, so someone will try to reduce the competition.

Most likely what will happen will be the complete opposite of what everybody thinks will happen. There are 2 ideas of what will happen post-halving.

1) Dump - Due to the dumps that occured in BCH and BSV when their halving took place. Many are expecting the same with Bitcoin.

2) Pump - Due to the halving of the supply and the amount of gains that we got in the past due to the halving the price might pump.

So basically short-term it can go either way. However I think in the long term, end of 2020 we will most likely pump. We might still break and hit $7K but I think in the future we should clear $10K finally and proceed to the ATH. However it might not happen in the next 30 days like everybody else is expecting.

I think a few days after the halving there might be dump attempts and many bull and bear traps. However if these get bought up due to institutional investment in the BTC futures then its pretty bullish. Since the massive supply gets over turned by the even larger demand. Hence its very bullish short-term.

I don't have a crystal ball and I'm not an analyst, but I say that in the next few weeks or months we will only see eviction and little volatility


good question and knowing that the world will be experiencing an economic crisis the situation only gets worse. I wonder when we will see ATH again with this terrible situation that the world is going through

We are all clueless on here since no man in this world would able to predict on what would the future looks like.Yes, we do have a couple of days before the halving event do happen.
The feels of weird, hesitations, odd etc. is normal since we already have seen on how price can fucked your analysis yet when you do thought that it would rise then it do goes to the opposite way.
Its really hard to predict on what would happence, hence we did able to touch 10k price but to see it do made up some correction which go back again on 9k level.
If this one would sustain then we might see further higher levels.

I expect a little retraction after the halving, which would cause the value to drop to around 7K-8K. Do not go with the momentum of the market because that is what the big players want.
It is a deregulated market and many people operate with inside information, but I think that bitcoin should end the year valued at around 15k with a massive appreciation occurring from September when the price should stabilize.

The majority of miners are driven by profit when the profit is no more the miners quit, simple as that, we've seen during the last drop when the hash rate went down by 15% on one adjustment. If your revenue was 10$ and costs 6$ with 4$ in profit, after the halving you're going to have -1$ in profit.
Are you going to keep mining? Nope!

Here (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5214026.msg54365659#msg54365659) is a post from philipma1957 about what it will look like with no price increase, it was made for 8850$
Who is going to buy new gear when with 3cents/kwh you will ROI (not make any profit!!!) in 517 days?
This assuming just the cost of the miner, no cooling, no other costs, no other taxes, and that the miner will not break down!
If till now we've seen large farms growing and taking share after share of the mining, it's going to become even worse, only those with huge amounts of $ and able to negotiate dirt cheap electricity rates will be able to stay in business.

So yeah, a drop back to 6-7k $ right now combined with the halving will be the last thing we need right now.

Alot of the miners were prepared months in advance for the halving. Halving is nothing new to BTC miners. The only miners that might shutdown their equipment is when all of a sudden they look at their pool stats and they are making half somehow. These are the novice miners which only represent a small percentage of the overall network. Most BTC miners unlike ETH are large farms with great electricity rates with the grid. They arent home miners paying $0.10 kwh.

People assumed this back in 2016 and they were expecting the network to halve in hashrate and the blocks to be 20 minute long. However look what happened instead. From the hashrate charts it looks like it remained the same after the halving. Because it was known way in advance what will happen. The difficult should retarget in 6 days after the halving anyways so even if 20% of miners leave the difficult will adjust fairly quickly and we will get 20 minute block times back.

after reaching the price of $ 10,000 yesterday, the price of bitcoin has now dropped to $ 8k. for now, I have no idea what happened. so far even halving less than 2 days. I think that currently, the price of bitcoin can reach a high price. however, the price is stable in that range. Well, I hope that the price of bitcoin can recover above $ 10k.

All the miners will look at their earning and they will make zero!
The reward having will happen Monday night, the difficulty adjustments will only happen one week after.
So, everybody will make at least for one week half of what they were making.


You're ignoring one thing, the advance in efficiency.
Till the middle of 2016 the best gear available was something like the s7, then bitmain launched the s9.
4.7 Th, 1210 W, 0.25 W/GH
14Th , 1375 W , 0.09 W/GH

That's an increase in hash rate for the same power consumption of 2.5 times.


I doubt that part!  ;D

I can't believe we are already at around those days. We have been "waiting" for halving for so long that I was expecting it to never come at one point. Right now we are actually doing not that bad honestly because we already increased in price a lot already. Maybe we could do a bit better, or maybe we could do a bit worse but I think the halving is already priced in and there won't be a big increase or decrease.

I see the price being around $8k and $12k for months, at least another month to me. Sure maybe we could be doing a lot better or worse but that is just my idea on how we are doing to do. In the end halving is here, and no matter what we think will happen, we only have to wait couple more days to see if we are right or wrong and won't have to wait for too long.

before halving the price of Bitcoin fell by $ 1000. very disappointing for me, this is not a correction in my opinion, I think bullish can still be strong, but bearish could have taken over if the bearish sentiment continues to come

The miners probably won't sell BTC.So what?The crypto whales and crypto exchange platforms are hoarding way more Bitcoins than the BTC miners,and they can sell anytime they want.
You say that nobody is buying Bitcoins.Then why the Bitcoin price isn't zero dollars right now?If there's no demand,there's no market liquidity and no value.There's definitely demand for Bitcoins,but it is very unstable.
I would be glad if the mainstream media stopped forever talking about Bitcoin.90% of their talking about Bitcoin is just pure FUD.

I was thinking, may be I was wrong: miners DO sell!! Indeed they need to sell in order to gain a profit and make their mining sustainable.

The interesting part is still trying to figure out possibile scenarios after the halving takes place.

Let me understand something: the moment after the halving takes place miners will be earning approx 50% of what they earn now, is this right?

Because they still have the same costs but they get 50% less bitcoins for every block, so they can actually sell 50% bitcoin less. Is this right? (of course this is just for sake of understanding, this willingly ignores hypotetical hashrate reduction and eventually difficulty adjustment)

^ Exactly, we are almost there and only days count. Bitcoin's price probably shaky because of the upcoming event but it is normal like what happened in the past halving. There is possible that it gives no guarantee on what will be the effect after the halving but rest assure bitcoin will still cope up after a short period of a dump on the price. Nevertheless, we don't need to feel weird nor any negative emotion for bitcoin has proven to us it's capability despite the crisis or economic instability.

There has been a lot of increases and decreases recently all due to the halving, we really don't know what is going to happen but it started to feel a lot like a pump and dump with a reason honestly. Right now there are way too many people who think that bitcoin is going to go up because of the halving, there is also a lot of people who think bitcoin will go down as well.

I am not sure which one I am right now but I can see that some rich people have waited until bitcoin increased in order to sell, they waited and saw people were getting optimistic and increased the price because of halving. After the price reached a new high, they basically sold right away to take that profit instead. It makes sense for them since otherwise they would have made less money and this way they sold bulk on higher price.