Bitcoin Forum

Assuming it will recover, do you think it will a slow-paced increase over years or we'll see prices doubling every week?

I strongly feel that the next year will be decisive. Once global economy goes in the second wave of crisis, people will move away from fiat and stocks. Also next year is the halving to 25 BTC per block.

The market is shallow enough it could double and triple amazingly easy, with an amazingly little amount of capital added.

I have no doubt people might "move away from fiat and stocks", but I think it's a huge leap to think "and move to some stupid Bitcoin currency instead".

I believe the rate of increase will be greater than the rate of decline since June. Gains will start out slowly, but more than double monthly before correcting again from triple digit heights, or higher.

You need to revisit those transfer figures (as an estimate of potential value) you looked at earlier  ;D

what's a transfer figure?

You did a fantastic breakdown of BTC value as figured out in SWIFT transfer fees about 2 months ago I can't find the thread though  ;)

The reason for the BTC spike was that it was something new that had gained some value and it caught the attention of someone with enough money to invest a big chunk of cash (well, big relative to what I have). That investment sparked interest from a larger crowd as well as the community, and they thought, "OMG this stuff is really taking off and will be worth tons of money -- BUY BUY BUY!" That same thing could happen again, true, but I doubt it will be quite so dramatic. People are skittish and we have not sustained any upward movement for more than a month since the crash. I'd say we'll need several months of slow but steady upward movement before anyone is willing to risk even a moderately large investment. Plus, if we started to see a spike up above $5, many miners would cash out their reserves as that would mean they were making a healthy 100% profit over current rates. I'll be surprised if we see sustained rates above $5 any time in the next year.

Oh thanks, well I can only estimate the potential value to an individual actor given current financial actions, but I have no way of calculating velocity of money nor size user base. This?:



@Trogdorjw73: You just described Elliott wave sentiment perfectly. The initial gains will be shallow with bear traps along the way, but once the third major wave catches momentum, it will make the pre-June wave look flat!

As fast as people are willing to take more money to the exchanges
in relation to how fast you are not offering yours for sale at any price.

Directly or indirectly convince more people to do so.

I don't believe in Eliot Waves, particularly as it applies to BTC. For stocks, it's still fuzzy math and statistics, but BTC is different enough that while we certainly have seen spikes and volatility, it's too much of both for me to think anyone can predict it with any sense of certainty. As I said, I'll be shocked if we get to $5 in 2012, let alone sustain that value. If the future proves me wrong, I'll happily power up some of my mining rigs again.

Well I suppose if you believe bitcoin is on a steady trend to zero, then my charts with perfectly predictive lucky analysis over the past month won't convince you of anything.

@trogdorjw73:

I'm really not a friend of chartism, it's mostly voodoo, and I'd usually never get the idea of defending it. But if that kind of analysis works anywhere, then it would be Bitcoin in the last half year. I actually made an exception in June, and started timing the bubble using charts. It worked extraordinarily well, which might not be a coincidence.

Why? Because the psychology of inexperienced traders was, and maybe still is, unusually strong in this market. A horde of people on here can overwhelm powers that identify repetitions of past mistakes. In addition, Bitcoin is high-risk, which lowers the buy-in of educated traders, and low-volume, which removes the most experienced traders.

That said, any pattern found by now will still be purged very soon, because fools burn money exponentially. So whoever can still profit directly from chart analysis should better do it fast. I'm already dropping it again, returning to fundamentals.

If we will enter the big third wave III since start of bitccoin trading, then the "recovery" will be VERY FAST and VERY SHARP

What price confirms this?

I am beginning to think bitcoin will do what S3052 says, not because of the underlying technicals but because his subscribers have the deepest pockets.

The recent rally, because a steep trendline was broken was an excellent example. Since I am not into paying him the fees he want I will leave if I get liquidated because of his "predictions".

Thanks for nothing. (Oh I am not the first person to pile on top of the self fulfilling prophecy crowd)

On second thought I might just subscribe... consciously paying danegeld.  >:(

oh that was fast:

http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/bitmarketEUR#rg60zvztgSzm1g10zm2g25

 ;D ;D ;D ;D

as fast as the manipulator will allow it to.

Halving of the block reward from 50 to 25 may in fact lower the price of bitcoins, not make them more expensive.  Less reward for miners = less return per kilowatt spent on power.  I would be glad to return to this quote in a year's time and see whether it's true.  I honestly think it is.

A similar argument was once made for the difficulty rating, where some argued a higher difficulty rating justified higher pricing.  We've seen that works in the opposite way: a high difficulty yields less BTC per kilowatt of power, causing miners to drop out until difficulty falls in line with the price.  The price didn't chase difficulty: miners chased the price and caused difficulty to go higher.

There are only two things that will make bitcoin retrace some of its former highs:

1) Major retailers getting on board and using bitcoins.  Not 'mom 'n pop' internet stores selling trinkets, but serious businesses with large turnovers.

2) Another speculative bubble based on potential future uses.  This one is unlikely to reoccur.  Burst bubbles rarely reinflate using the same arguments or reasons as speculators are naturally very wary.

ElectricMucus, bitcon:

Please get over it. No manipulator using normal trade, neither S3052 nor a postulated magic megatrader has the power to change the market on a large scale, even on the mid-term. The only exception would be a big speculator who only ever buys.

And if you really detected a manipulator, take his money already. If you see him and what he does, it is pretty much by definition of manipulation possible to profit from the knowledge. Exponentially drain his money, and I'll believe you, not that it matters after you've made 6-to-7-digit profits.

Sometimes I'm not so sure how many noticed that most posts on "the manipulator" are just a parody all the conspiracy theories about Gox. Hardly anyone takes that seriously outside troll mode. Sure, a few people tried manipulation more or less successfully, but quickly depleted their prey and strengthened calm traders in the process.

I don't say that there is a single person doing all this. I simply suspect that S3052s subscribers represent the largest and best funded group of traders.
Look at the current rise from 2.2: It is dominated by 3 Volume spikes most likely consisting of 3 large buys.

And one other thing: Some person is engaging in manipulating or "shaping" bitcoincharts Volumes to make them less reliable. 2 days ago the Gravestone Doji was carefully made to have bullish volume and yesterday there was a large buy at 11:59:59 to make the candle higher.

The pattern normally suggest a bearish trend and the indicators I use point to it, but nevertheless the price went up today. This could simply be people reading the information published on S3052s website while his subscribers get a more detailed prediction of what would happen and would bet against them. (So they have more information (or less misleading) and get a better price)

I also think the whole process increases volatility to these unusual levels.

I think the calm of the market the last 24 hours has been very strange to say the least. There has been very little actiivty in the way of up or down but we have slowly been trending upwards. The rapid swings of the previous week are much easier to make more bitcoins on lol. Either way I am expecting something big to happen in the next 24 hours.

Agreed the main thing is just to wait and see which direction it's going to take. The only thing that has been fairly consistent about bitcoin is that quiet periods lead up to something nice and wild.

There are always periods of stagnancy after big drops.  Then it's usually followed by another big drop. 

Crazy huh? Never any storms between storms either.

Exactly, I was going to say the same. This is typical slow up before the next drop. 3 was the last resistance, now we are down to 2.3. One thing you can count on is bitcoin value dropping. It has never let me down since the drop from $30. No matter how much I even thought it would rise.

YOu guys still fail to understand the weak fundamentals of bitcoin if you think we will rise. The only thing keeping a total collapse is the manipulator setting up his huge walls.

If for no other reason than the $14k per day of electricity wasted, I agree.

Bitcoin needs a 'reset' point, where purpose built, structured ASICs are the bulk of network power. There seems to be a very large divergence between Speculators and Miners, and it clearly hasn't dawned on many of you bulls that, the higher the price of Bitcoin, the more you're spending to generate each block.

With no common use, you're just speculating on an abstraction. IN fact, for many of you it would be just as easy to bet back and forth using a completely fictitious currency that you never take delivery of. Virtually none of you actually use Bitcoin as a medium of exchange to purchase goods an services. Instead, you applaud new market entries, products and services available for Bitcoin, but virtually all of you fail to bother to support the very currency that you're so fixated on.

Do you hear that huge sucking sound? That's the outflow of dollars every single day from Miners liquidating 6000+ coins just to cover their massive electric bills. Every day the long term potential of Bitcoin goes down. There are way too many GPUs block mining. If you believe that the network will be less secure at 50% or even 30% of current network power, you need to do more research.

Bitcoin needs to go to $0.5, or possibly lower, and the vast majority of GPU miners need to be pushed out. With a reset point, and FPGA + Structured ASIC development, at least there's a point where, even at $0.5 - $1 or higher that NEWER (non GPU) miners can expect some return, and the outflow of cash from the network to pay utility bills will be 1/40th of what it is today.

GPU mining is one of the reasons we're in this situation. Push the price lower, and bankrupt the majority of miners. It has to happen.

Oh yes yes bankrupt the miners - oh wait I mine.

I agree with the rest of the post.

Nailed it in one.  I use bitcoins as a convenient tool for speculation in a completely unregulated market.  It's kinda fun, sometimes.  I don't buy narcotics so haven't availed myself of Silk Road, the one commerce area where bitcoins are clearly superior to other forms of payments.  I don't transfer money internationally either, which is another area where bitcoins can be useful.  As long as the recipient wants bitcoins.  If they want their local currency then the receiver has to go to an exchange to get the cash, introducing delays and fees, and defeating the purpose of the exercise.
[/quote]


Push too many people out and the whole thing can be killed off.  Bitcoin right now is built on hope: hope that it will become popular and widely used.  Hope that the price will retrace some of its previous highs.

Any business/project built on hope without acknowledgement of economic realities is doomed to fail.

I look forward to 70% of miners falling off the cliff, because I acknowledge the reality, and I actually want Bitcoin to succeed. Unlike many speculators and vile libertarian blowhards, there's a few of us who actually understand both the economic and technical underpinnings of Bitcoin, and see the current state of affairs as an incredibly illogical race to the bottom. Too many speculators, FAR too many miners and virtually none of you supporting businesses accepting Bitcoin, unless they're helping you to speculate, or move your money for speculation.

I give Bitcoin a 25% chance of succeeding past 3 months if there aren't real structural changes in the way this community operates.

That huge sucking sound you hear? It's also 80% of this forum.

When will people understand that a speculator does not care whom he buys his coins from? The details of mining are irrelevant to the valuation of Bitcoin. There are 21M BTC maximum, that is all we need to know. For whatever reason Mr. whoever sells them at 200% loss or 10000% profit is a question of the past which, aside from psychological details, has negligible effect on the future. If anything, volatility can increase if the ones holding are bad speculators, but that's a good thing for people wanting to speculate.

The "price follows difficulty" nonsense does not get any better when fuzzy extras are added. This should be common knowledge, or at least obvious.




And I, as one aggressive bull, never admitted to giving Bitcoin a >25% success chance over all scenarios. Depending on how you estimate a success scenario's market size, the quoted statement is quite bullish -- you give Bitcoin 25% without real structural changes? Now that's one positive attitude. I bought BTC and still find that statement too optimistic. The chances of structural change are not that low, if that gives another 20%, we'd end up at >45% success probability. Enormous! At an expectation value 80% above current, which assumes a factor 3 in a 45% long-term success (2-4 year) case and total loss on the 55%, a Kelly Bet on that would mean buying in with 25% of your speculation money right now! And you know a factor three isn't the limit for Bitcoin, eh?

inb4 "But I only give it a 5% chance of succeeding past 4 months" -- I hope that wasn't the point of the post.

I mainly bet on the chance of some digital market on the planet being cornered and evading into Bitcoin at some point, and the fact that other speculators will pay for infrastructure the moment they find enough seeds of such markets. It's the old investor's tactic; nobody knows which, but one of them is likely to sprout.

Good post Vandroiy. I find it absolutely hilarious that Jonathan Ryan Owens claims he's one of the few chosen ones who understand the economics of Bitcoin. Yet what he's saying is absolute nonsense. It's obvious for everyone that there are way too many miners for the current price/difficulty. Pretty much the only way mining is directly profitable right now is if you pay static electricity bills which means that either everyone has that benefit or many miners are waiting for the price to increase, eventually.

That much is obvious. What apparently isn't obvious to everyone is that the amount of miners there are has no effect on price. Let me repeat that, it has zero, zilch, nada, no effect. The amount of new Bitcoins is always the same and doesn't depend on the amount of miners. Now one could claim that the miners sell more when the market mindset is something, and less when it's something else etc. but that's just speculation. My opinion on this is that miners actually don't sell a lot right now in addition to what they have to sell for costs.

This opinion is based on the fact that I'm a miner myself and I know a lot of miners who have different mindsets related to what's happening with Bitcoin's price and future development. But what they have in common is that most of them are holding a lot right now because they see selling as very unattractive and it's not going to get more attractive if the price goes to $1.x, that's for sure. I've personally followed a 50/50 plan of some sort from the start, but right now I'm actually for the first time following a 100% hold plan for the coins I mine. This is because I don't need to sell to cover any costs at the moment and because I value BTC more than fiat, at least with this price.

Unlike the amount of miners, terms such as speculative demand and trade demand are very relevant as far as Bitcoin economics are concerned. It's obvious to almost everyone that the price of one Bitcoin is still mostly supported by speculative demand, because the real trade demand is small. But as long as Bitcoin is alive and well, there is not going to be a situation where the speculative demand is at 0. This means that the price will never be even close to the value that's only supported by trade demand.

If we assume that the real trade demand could support a price in the range between $0.1 and $0.5, which I think is a realistic assumption, it's easy to see how much stronger the support becomes at $2, compared to $4 or an even higher price. What we're seeing now is the bottom, or if not the bottom, something close to the bottom. Speculative demand is not going to 0 unless Bitcoin fundamentals get broken somehow.

My only expectation and hope for Bitcoin right now is that it finds a bottom which holds. A currency isn't very useful if it's effectively in hyperinflation. But I know we're very close to this point right now. I don't count miniscule overshoots in one exchange as a real break, which means that $2 has held for three times now. Anytime the price goes to $2 it seems the sellers lose interest, which means that the selling pressure has mostly been speculative and has very little to do with people actually wanting to quit Bitcoin.

It's still possible that $2 breaks and if it breaks decisively, we might see another major drop in speculative demand (and consequently an increase in speculative selling) which could drop the price to $1.5 or even lower. But right now triple bottom is more probable in my opinion, simply because it has already been very hard to break $2 and now there are pretty much the biggest bid walls we have ever seen, fake or not.

Not sure why you think miners holding is a good thing, because as soon as there is any rally of some sort, they are going to start selling, and as soon as the price starts dropping everyone will want to cash out before the next drop.  Most miners I know ride the waves and sell when they can. 

And it's hard for me to take Technomages posts seriously when talking about bottoms/how it can't go any lower, because he said the same thing so many times on the way down. 

[/flash]

You insult me with your petulance, but I will reply to you as an adult.

To me, it seems that you demonstrate a lack of grasp on reality, sir, and/or you have completely misunderstood WHY mining power has a direct correlation on price. I fully expect that you'll disregard this reply, but there are many rational people on these boards. I'm answering to your statement for their benefit. You're already a lost cause. Sorry that you've got sunk costs that you'll never get back.

Currently $18k per day is spent on electricity to power the Bitcoin network. The VAST majority of miners are underwater, and running at a loss, or stealing electricity. Bitcoin can not succeed on Mom and Dads power bill.

You want Bitcoin to be at a higher price ONLY because out of the $2.30 that each bitcoin is worth, you and other miners spend $2.8 on electricity for every Bitcoin that is produced. If the cost to generate a bitcoin was $0.5, and the fair market value of bitcoin (established by REAL USE) was $1, you wouldn't be complaining about the price at all.

So, you truly believe that the pressure to pay $500k + in electric bills per month has no effect on the price?

Think about your words again, and consider this:

MOST miners have to sell at least part (if not all) of their bitcoin to cover their bills. This is an outflow of ~$500k / mo. that does nothing to enrich the miners, and saps wealth and value from bitcoin directly through the CONSTANT selling of small amounts of coins on the exchanges.

Period.

Please, prove me wrong. There is no broad utility to Bitcoin at the moment, and if no new coins were generated for the next 2 years, we'd still have too many. Speculators have been subsidizing the cost of the network now for over 6 months, while the vast majority of bitcoin utility is inside of exchanges, where the network itself has little to no use. Your job as a miner is to validate transactions and when you find a block, include the valid transactions into that block. 40 transactions on average per block is pathetic, frankly, and tells me that a price of $2.3 is far too high.

I dunno, I guess we'll probably just have to agree to disagree. I'm sorry you didn't get rich mining, Technomage.

Take care.

-Jonathan

I have to address a third issue as well which is an insult to people who are actually using Bitcoin and trying to develop the Bitcoin economy, which happens to be the only way we can have true growth, true trade demand. I call bullshit on any claims that the "Bitcoin community is flawed and full of people who care about nothing other than speculation". That is crap. If one uses this particular sub-forum as an indicator, this might make sense, but this sub-forum is not a representation of the Bitcoin community.

The real community is out there developing software, building businesses, arranging conferences and using Bitcoin when they can. Everyone needs to look in the mirror and if the only thing they do for Bitcoin is speculate on the short term, they are actually doing harm to Bitcoin. The more people we have that simply try to buy low and sell high in the short term, the more unstable the price is. I don't want a massive price bubble to form again where at least 95% of demand is speculative, I want the trade demand to grow and speculative demand to remain at reasonable levels.

Step one is a solid bottom, which for now seems to be at $2. If that fails, there will be a solid bottom eventually. After that I don't really want a new bubble mode, much better would be that people focus on growing the economy which is a much more healthy way to raise the price. What I want doesn't matter much though, I fear we're in for another bubble next year.

Regardless, my personal focus related to Bitcoin is less on speculation and more on actual development. I'm well on my way to starting a company that's focused on Bitcoin, the plan right now is to start in February. I see 2012 as the year of Bitcoin, it's going to be one hell of a ride. It'll decide the future of Bitcoin in many ways. I have it as a 99,99% event that Bitcoin survives the next 3 months, nothing can kill it except a serious issue in the underlying technology. Even if we have government crackdown on Bitcoin, it'll still survive. That is not death but it's the death of any mainstream potential. My hopes are that we can work with the governments to keep Bitcoin legal, though.

Does this mean people actually paid 20 Euros for bitcoins?  wtf... I need to get in the Euro market... heh

I didn't say it's a good thing. In fact I said the opposite, because miners holding only to sell once the price rises a little is exactly the same as speculators buying and then selling when the price rises. It's just as harmful. But for people like my it's not like that. Once I find a good enough long position I'm not going to sell for small gains. I would sell eventually if there is a massive bubble again but I also have the option of not selling at all and simply using the investments as savings and using them when I need them.

Let's just say that I've learned a lot along the way and my mistakes have taught me many things. These days I'm more conservative in my predictions. It's so difficult to know anything for sure, that's why I now prefer to use percentages. For example, I feel that a triple bottom is actually the most likely scenario right now, but I don't want to be caught by a surprise if the walls at $2 melt and we take a deep plunge again.

I can respect that, takes a man to recognize where he went wrong and learn lessons from it. 

It sounds like everyone believes price will drop if miners catch a rally. Why? They'd just stop rising. Dropping to new lows only happens when people sell at a massive loss compared to the last half year, which I hardly find a sane move.

Normally, there is no reason to shoot the other way just because a trend stops. People who follow trends will soon be negligible, because they burn their money against a trivial "buy low, sell high" bot or sane speculators, and any upward correction now would ignite that process on a much larger scale than before.


@Jonathan on Technomage:

The point is that a miner who deliberately does not sell or spend is actually a speculator. It's unlikely that someone lays out a plan to mine and sell at a loss to cover the electricity bill for mining. People who sell at a loss will shut down their mining rigs, not keep them running to crash the market. Nobody wants to continuously pay money to be able to make BTC price drop.

There's a simpler model to the whole thing. Just assume every miner sells eventually. Then, you can just cut out all details about mining and miners from the analysis, and assume a fixed BTC inflow of currently 50 BTC per block. From that perspective, it is completely irrelevant what miners do as long as they don't form a lobby and do a massive move all at once.

I won't disregard your post because I have valid counters. And I don't think you're a lost cause, not yet at least.

I understand this and I already said so in my previous post. This is the obvious part, that there are way too many miners for the current price/difficulty.

I'm one of the lucky who actually pay a static electricity bill (it's part of the rent) so my thinking process is a bit different. If I had to pay for electricity per usage, I would have probably stopped mining already.

Of course it has an effect, but again there are only so many Bitcoins they can sell. The amount they can sell is the same regardless of the electric bill. It's important to understand that most miners are not running a professional mining business with massive electricity costs. Majority of mining power in the network come from small miners who can easily pay their electric bills from other income without selling a single Bitcoin, if they believe in Bitcoin and want to hold them.

Well, if someone out there is using all of their Bitcoin to cover the electricity costs, then that person is an idiot. No one in that situation should be running their mining rigs anymore, not for one second (with one exception, if the person gets enough heating from the rigs to make it profitable). The only justification to mine with a loss is that you pay the electricity with other income and save the Bitcoins with the expectation of future price increase. I don't personally even want another price bubble so if I were mining with a loss I would just stop, period.

I will try. For instance, there is an important graph which shows the mining cost per transaction. Based on this graph, it looks like we're currently at or near the bottom. http://blockchain.info/charts/cost-per-transaction

From the weekly average chart it's even more clear: http://blockchain.info/charts/cost-per-transaction?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&daysAverageString=7&scale=0

It certainly looks like we've returned to the pre-bubble era of Bitcoin as far as mining is concerned. The bubble has deflated. And there is no reason to believe it's going to go below pre-bubble levels.

Now the second issue you talk about is transactions. This can be quite easily countered looking at the daily transactions graphs: http://www.blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions & http://www.blockchain.info/charts/n-transactions?showDataPoints=false&timespan=&daysAverageString=7&scale=0

These graphs actually have a fairly decent correlation with the price. The transaction bottom for now seems to be 5000 per day and there's even been a small uptrend recently. But looking at the past correlation for 5000 transactions, we are near or at the bottom in price as well. This is all I got for now, hopefully someone else can expand this discussion.

+1

I know I am late to the party and while I agree with most of what you are all saying.  I think the most likely outlook for the next few years is a slow price drop back to sub $1 range, may be not for 1 year are so due to bulls jumping in thinking we are at bottom also there may be some small rallys due to news coverage.  However,  If no major outside investors come-in, and they likely won't, the price will push the GPU farms out some time in 2012 to 2013, after that I hope Bitcoin will slowly mature and raise in true value, but it could just as easy become a fad that die out or even get replaced but a kinda of Bitcoin 2.0 that has better features. All I know is the price is headed lower for a while,,,,,, barring some rich crazy person.

I think a lot of normal people, and by "normal" I mean "not rich" people earned a lot of money (read: unrealized profit) by being an early adopter. Many had hundreds of thousands. Nowadays, very few hav these amounts because we witness a wealth redistribution. This makes me think that major sell-off and buy-off will be less and less happening, thus making price manipulation harder and harder.

This is true but for one exception. The manipulator(s). They seem to be making massive profits from day trading and their footprint in the market seems to get bigger, not smaller. To counter this we need more big players in the market to give the current ones a little more competition.

Not necessarily, once people realize that they don't need to

a) Place bids before a fake buywall
b) Place sells before a fake sellwall.
c) ignore indicators

They could wrestle those assets away from them.

I have to say I have a real feeling that I ought to buy a lot of bitcoins right now (though I have been drinking quite heavily). It seems to be right on the edge of it's bottom - it seems odd worrying about a few cents drop when the potential is so massive.
But still, I can't risk it - and at $5 I'll probably be saying the same thing.

I second the rally I think we are due for one perhaps this or next weekend. The price has been fairly stable and am sure that there are others who are thinking that this is a good time to buy as well all we need is something to trigger the movement. I've got no charts just a gut feeling I hope I'm right!

If the 'manipulator(s)' are making massive profits, they will be joined by an increasing number of 'manipulators' (e.g., people with enough funds to move the market.)  Then they will play against each other.  I expect that that is already the case to some extent, but the trend will grow.

So, the bulk of the market participants will be well capitalized and there will be a gaggle of lesser players kind of along for the ride.  Sort of like lint blowing around which may or may not be worth sweeping up.

This outcome is not unlike the current mainstream capital markets in fact.

I suspect that it is just as likely that there are more big holders that wish to liquidate and/or people who want an even bigger position who realize that one more significant decline will shake out enough more weak hands to be worthwhile.

Actually the latter may not be true.  The couple hundred thousand of BTC dropped last time barely broke the previous low, and then only for a few seconds, so the potential to manipulate sentiment downward may be over...for now.

I retain the USD funds earmarked to pick up another load in the deep $1.xx drop, but it does seem to be less and less likely that I will be deploying them.

I think the reason it bounced right off from 2 was bitcoinica, this was an obvious limit order, people took what they've got.
But those coins were mostly sold again right after or at the bounce to 2.4.

I think the current rise is a attempt from the bulls to scoop up stop loss orders from people who shorted @2.4. At first it looked like it might succeed but that gets more and more unlikely, as for the downcreep, time is running out for this rally. Maybe one final push and people who were smart enough to jump ship @2.2 will realize there is a second shorting opportunity.

One should be careful not to refer to the traders independently of the market.

I honestly dont think anything is going to happen at this point.  Costs to much to create them, there really hasnt been anything to make it jump back up, and 2 bux is sitting about right and stable for awhile.  Wish I would have jumped on the 30 dollar a coin ponzi scheme when it started what the hell, missed the boat again lol

You don't think there is any reason to buy? What about recently when the Price dropped from 3.80 to what it is now the manipulator cashed out all there is left to do is buy buy buy. I think we will see a rally soon enough downward trend has stopped and guarantee the manipulator is looking to turn his hefty amount of cash back into bitcoins again

I LOL'D

Just because a price has fallen gives people no reason to buy back in.  We've seen plenty of examples in regards to bitcoin over the past few months.

What happens if the 'manipulator' decides to cash out his or her earnings and play in another market, such as shares, bonds or commodities?  Just because the money was made on bitcoins doesn't mean it has to stay in this market.  The guarantee that the 'manipulator' is ready to jump back in is backed by nothing.

forex.

He would be eaten alive. But that depends if those are his bitcoinica winnings he might even succeed. If those are early coins... no private island..

I believe the manipulators are getting used to making money of bitcoins if someone is making 100s of thousands off something I don't see why they wouldn't try it again looks like we spiked how high til a drop or stabilization once again