Bitcoin Forum

https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2020/04/silk-road-founder-ross-ulbricht-predicts-bitcoins-price-falling-to-3200/


Ross Ulbricht predicts the price of bitcoin will fall to $3200 in 2020.
Ulbricht says bitcoin's impulse bull cycle is officially over following Mar. 12's market crash.

Silk Road Founder Ross Ulbricht predicts the price of bitcoin could fall to $3,200 over the next year.

Ulbricht, who is serving two life sentences in prison without the possibility of parole for his role in founding the dark web marketplace Silk Road, published a Medium post on April 11 giving his prediction for bitcoin’s price in 2020.

Ulbricht previously wrote in December 2019 that a drop below $4,200 would invalidate the impulse market for bitcoin and bring an end to the bullish cycle. Ulbricht claims his prediction was validated following Mar. 12’s cryptocurrency market crash, during which the price of BTC fell as low as $3,600.

He wrote:

"The cycle-degree bull market — from Bitcoin’s beginning to the ~$20,000 peak of late 2017 — is over. We are now in the last wave… of Bitcoin’s first cycle-degree bear market (the largest yet).

Ulbricht anticipates the bear cycle for bitcoin beginning around June or July 2020, with the currency potentially falling to $3,200.

He continued:

"A break below the major low of $3,200 will be a solid confirmation of this, at which point we will be trying to determine when the final low is in. This will be a major buying opportunity.

Ulbricht claimed that a price rise above $14K would invalidate his bearish scenario and require a re-evaluation of the market. However, he wrote that scenario would be “very unlikely.”


Is this scenario likely?

Is Ross Ulbricht using Medium from Prison?

Anyway, just like John McAfee, Ross also lost his relevance from crypto market. God bless your wealth if you believe a dark web drug dealer can predict about the future of the bitcoin price.

Bitcoin can't see an abrupt drop now at this point. If it happens, it will be a total massacre because all mining operations will be forced out of business and bitcoin network will become unusable!

Don't expect rise, my instinct told me it will fall and disappoint many people. The fall might hit 3k. This is not fud, but my observations.

He doesn't have internet access. He probably told the information in the article to a friend, during a prison visit, who subsequently wrote it on Medium and controls the Ross Ulbricht account there. Same with "his" twitter account.

This is only true if:
-Ross is a world class technical analyst
-Ross is as an expert trader
-A fall in March is really a crash in Bitcoin not a false panic following a stock market crash.

None of the above is true so his analysis is nor worth my time.

Not directly though but through his lawyer, Ross Ulbricht passes written notes (https://freeross.org/bitcoin-equals-freedom/) to his lawyer but before that the lawyer will change/edit some words for him not to have any legal issues. As on how Ross can analyze charts (https://medium.com/@RossUlbricht/bitcoin-by-ross-9-a-strong-signal-for-lower-prices-87d2cdcdba95) you can see that the lawyer might have given him printed copies of Bitcoin's latest chart where he can do his analysis by paper and then later on be scanned by them. As for his analysis I don't know why he is analyzing Bitcoin's chart on a long term period, from 2012-2019, since we all know that makes anyone's analysis for Bitcoin more inaccurate given that we are on a volatile market we really don't know where Bitcoin will be headed not unless we look at charts on a shorter time frame.

Probably because he is in prison. He has a lot of time to go through many things and makes speculations and prediction. He is not different from others speculating and consider the recent fall in price of bitcoin, he might be right but not until it happens nobody will believe him

I look forward to accumulating within the 3.5k to 3k range if the price will get there. I'll DCA from 6k though.

If the price goes according to his prediction I will fill my bags and wait patiently until it turns green, I am not sure how these so called analyst are predicting.

Look a like he's an another John McAfee, I agree the BTC value might drop after Halving because the majority are waiting to sell their asset in a good price as this COVID-19 is still going and the lockdowns are in progress most of them might sell but this doesn't mean the value will go till 3.5k. I will just hold my asset for now I don't want to believe anyone..

That was the case even i was thinking.

If he was that great in predicting the future he would be sitting at home and having a good life rather than rotting in prison :D .

The miners will hold on to it for a while before shutting down, there were times when they were mining at a loss during 2014 and 2015 and we know what happened historically. Even if we see a crash the market will always recover.
 

His is not reliable to make such prediction that may believable because he had already lose His reputation in Cryptospace.

Though we are not in Good market shape now yet we are still in Good faith because the virus is slowly slowing the spread and also Halving is coming.

and also can't we just ignore message from unreliable people?because for me this only add bad effect and views for crypto users and most specially to those looking for entering investing again.

Actually in all honesty I think many will be ready and waiting to see that price, am sure those who bought during the previous dip to 3400 are very much happy they bought, well except for those who bought at the top,
In my opinion, let it fall, I believe it won't stay on that price for too long, btc has fallen severely and still rise to the occasion, am not worried, just hoping it will hit that predicted low price.
Happy Halving!

That's interesting to see that this guy is spending prison time by analysing bitcoin price. I don’t wanna waste my time by following prediction like this where someone delivering predictions through his lawyers rather than wasting time for reducing own prison sentences. A man who is out of all connectivity is giving bitcoin price prediction from prison and we have to believe that,,huh ::). Most probably he is just trying to draw crypto communities attention to him where possibilities of getting political or economical help from someone to get bail is the real intention.

Lots of people have simillar wish to see their faces on crypto related blogs & news releases. From that wish they always try to shake crypto world by giving baseless prediction about bitcoin where 90% of their prediction gone wrong and rest 10% is part of the game.    

Why would we even have to consider this mans opinion on the state of the BTC market. It's only 1 - 2 months wait though, can't wait to see how his predictions fail quite miserably. Why is he even commenting on BTC though, he should just honestly spend his time peacefully in prison. He's basically just asking for a commotion and attention right now, that or those news agencies have nothing to report on hence, they pulled this out of nowhere. Besides, the crash that happened in march can mostly be attributed in the market panic due to various factories closing down and the like. It basically affected not only the stocks market but also the cryptomarket.

Does the mention of his name make the prediction more credible?

These days we can see predictions left and right. But the common characteristic among all of them is that they are all speculations. These are all guesses. Ross Ulbricht's guess is no better than mine or yours.

Hello ,
I do think everyone knows that the silk road was a downside of the Bitcoin usage , silk road was controlled by people who are now facing charges in jail one should understand that when someone is facing charges one cannot trust their sources .
Also they do have limited contact with the world . I do not even think of trusting the person would be good and safe . Therefore I hope the community would make decisions on its own and stop looking up at people who are not even respected .
We have since then reduced the criminal activities to 10% and I do hope it with the years gets even less than that .

Should we trust a guy serving two life sentences in prison about the future price of Bitcoin?
Everyone has the right to express his opinions.This guy has lots of free time to write articles and to spread FUD.I am one of the people,who believe that the 2017 ATH will never be reached,but I don't think that Bitcoin might crash to a 3200 USD price and then never recover from it.I guess that the BTC price move in the 5K-10K USD area for the next few years.By the way,this thread belongs to the Speculation sub-forum.Why it isn't moved yet?

Not that I support drugs, crimes and human trafficking but I see so much hate against Ross from everyone here without even considering the fact that The Silk Road was one of the reasons many people started spreading the word about BTC. Although he did create a black market for illegal activities, without it and his conviction maybe some of us wouldn't be here right now. Personal opinion.

Most of the people I know have heard of Bitcoin from the news/internet and they always mention either "black market", "a website where illegal things are sold" or "silk road". I just feel like it's one of the key points that propped BTC to the adoption and popularity it has now.

It is very likely if we get a second wave of covid-19 first in China and then in Europe and USA. And first wave still active in Africa South America and Russia. We can have huge economic decline in 2020 and 2021.

Actually have the same thoughts but reading up the possibilities above which had been said then it do somewhat clear up my mind.It can actually be passed or relay on into other people
which would most likely to be his loved ones or his own lawyer but this kind of first impression last.  ;D

Calls like these is already automatically be put up in ignore, We've seen lots in the past and no man can able to predict on what would future lies ahead.Even he's the founder of Silk road, it doesnt
mean that words came out from his mouth would like to happen but at least he do make up some clarification that this would be unlikely.

Who say that? Bill Gates and the NWO with their wishful thinking. Yes we might get a 2nd wave. But it will not be natural. They spread it like they did on the first one.

Sorry I dont buy that story that a Chinese ate a bat on a chinese fish market and 3 months later it has spread to every single corner in the world. The biggest hoax in the history, just to vaxx 7 billion people...

Given the punishment, I don't blame him for wanting to take part in life outside the penitentiary, at least in this way. Although I do not share his opinion, since we cannot know what else will happen by the end of this year, we should leave the possibility and the option of another sharp fall as was the case on 11/12 March 2020. Although such a decline would very likely be short-lived, some are obviously obsessed with BTC sinking as low as possible, because they hate it or want to invest at a low price.

---

Federal Bureau of Prisons in their institutions is have something called TRULINCS (The Trust Fund Limited Inmate Computer System) which which is actually limited computer access for sending electronic messages.


This system is implemented in the prison where he is being held Federal Correctional Complex - Tucson (https://prisoninsight.com/correctional-facilities/federal/arizona/federal-correctional-complex-tucson/). In case someone wants to send him a postcard or something like that, you have an address ;)

OP, why are you posting a 1-month old article with big statement in it? Are you just trying to spread FUD?

One month ago it was a possibility, because Bitcoin hasn't recovered yet, and this prediction isn't too far from the bottom that was reached during the last crash. But now the market is bullish again and this prediction has extremely low chances of becoming true. I'm sure if Ross was asked about the price today, he wouldn't say $3,200 again.

It does not matter if second wave is natural or unnatural or alien or underwater. If it happens and in many countries immunity is sub 5% right now. If it happen World economy will be reckted and  Bitcoin can go to $3200.

I predict 7800 dollar soon. And also 10414 dollar and 8914 dollar.

How about that?

Everyone can give a prediction but this kind of prediction cannot change the reality. There are many traders who have missed the last $3700 level, they were waiting for more downtrend. But their expectations have not been met, so they are still waiting to dump bitcoin again, for which they are constantly making different fuds to create panic in the market. If I agree with his predictio, then what will change if I come to this level again? There will be no change for those who have long-term plans. So there is no point in wasting time reading such articles.

wtf guys in the speculation subforum getting angry at a guy speculating.  :D

mr ulbricht is a legend.

Basing off technical aspect then these numbers are realistic when telling about projected up and down point but talking in father levels then its unlikely to happen
but we cant put up any verdict because this market had always a surprise. Just like what happen on previous ATH to dump scenario and other similar events
do happen which proves out that nothing is certain in talks of future price.

Another bearish calls? Even I, would really have that $1 price in mind. : D

Alot of people here and on Reddit are claiming that they would love bitcoin to go to $3200 so they can "buy more" however where were you guys on March 12th when it crashed down to $3.5K or so, why didn't you buy then?

Most likely if it ever goes to $3200 then there is going to be some much fear that nobody will be buying it. People only seem to be buying bitcoin whenever it has an impulsive move like just now and they only sell it when there is massive panic like that day back in March.

Stocks are no different. People are buying stocks like crazy now when its almost at a ATH peak but when it was crashing down back in March nobody was buying, everybody was shorting and look what happened.

I respect every prediction but for this, I think it's impossible.  Halving is currently making the division to miners divided by 2 and it will definitely complicate many miners, especially small miners.  Bitcoin transactions will freeze for a while if the price of Bitcoin drops to $ 3k, but again this is only a prediction, don't worry..

I actually like this guy, minus the fact that he has been found guilty of felonies (and if they are true or not, I'm not getting into that discussion) but for some reason every time somebody is willing to put out the numbers out there, I think a teeny bit less of them.

I mean, we all do our predictions here, but these are threads exactly for that. DPR should stick to security and not speculation.

The guy is stuck in prison for life. Give him a break, let him draw some charts.


Definitely true, but that doesn't necessarily mean lower lows for BTC. Given the strong signs of accumulation the past couple months, I foresee something more like August 2015. Shallower, less panicked, higher low.

There's also a chance BTC diverges from the stock market, like gold in Q4 2008.

this guy is more believable than other self proclaimed genius out thier because this guy was involved on the deep web and we all know that btc first got popularity on that site or got discovered on that site  so he is already familiar with the flow of btc  .

 infact his prediction is already happening now  . we just need to wait for the other one if itl occur too but we should prepare for it at the same time    . i only  feel sorry for the guy because he got jailed and no chance for him for a parole

Do you really believe him? It's just a coincidence and everybody can drop a prediction on what would be the outcome  of bitcoins in future, There are so many people gives their own predictions and luckily his prediction come closer.

Do you heard or see  a prediction contest happening here right? It's the same on what's happening and silkroad founder is  the winner that's why he's on the headlines.

I love the dude, and he is one of the most influential person in the crypto world, I will not deny it. However, let's be real about some facts, this dude was doing something illegal with crypto, he was even allowing others to do something illegal with his illegality, thanks to him people could stay anonymous while doing illegal stuff as well.

I am not saying what he did was wrong or right, moral of the story is to each of their own and that is not my place to judge what he did, but there is no denying that it was actually against the laws hence illegal. Ever since the dude was jailed, bitcoin skyrocketed like crazy, him going away opened the way for bitcoin to move from "thing people use to buy drugs" to "things people invest to make money" and that is why I think he might not be feeling to kindly of us who are going on after he left.