Bitcoin Forum

Halving is successfully completed. We have seen several moves on price of BTC. What we can expect now? Who will control the market? Bull or bear?

2020 is a neutral year by my estimation for a long while now, sideways in sum total.   We will work out the volume from the recovery rise of 2019, absorb the halvening event both speculation and event process of less supply which develops over time.
   So if I had to guess a price for this year and thats not presuming that 31st December is somehow the correct target but in general I would say 10k or a more adjusted view would be the 200 day average for a good target we can easily achieve.   This is good news as the 200 day average is rising and its generally a positive thing to go sideways though neutral might be ironic its alot better then possible alternatives we have seen so far with the virus sell off scaring many.

Yet, another chapter of Bitcoin's journey and what we are expecting to happen now?
Definitely, we can't exactly tell we are in the bullish soon nor we can be bearish. The previous halvings have a positive response months after but I really doubt if it will happen this year again knowing the situation as it is worse. However, can be of a big chance once the pandemic is done.

TBH, there is no clear vision to see what is the next scenario. There are only two things that possibly won't change and that is the ups and downs.
Maybe it was too early to say something, will have to wait a few months and may we have some pictures on it.

the price that most of crypto users were expecting didnt happen, im guessing at least 10k. but lets wait for few weeks and see if some changes in the market will happen


yeah lets be conservative with numbers here...at least we are going up bit by bit

Halving will just supply a gradually increasing upward pressure on the market. Any significant movements pre- or post-halving are from market participants making big moves, not from the actual supply cut. But over the many months to come the halving will in general slowly raise the price over the longer term.

This time is difficult for Bitcoin.
For me, what happened is like buying and selling the news, the recent dump after the halving is those people closing their long positions from below $8,000 before. It's like some people expected the price of Bitcoin is gonna blow up again after the halving but the price dumped! Sad for those people who able to buy at the top.

Because of lockdown & Epidemic period, people are selling theirs bitcoin due to afford theirs daily Expense. That's why bitcoin price got descressed. Although I'm not sure about what will be happened. Maybe 2x after Epidemic period is done  ???

One thing that surprised me is that the hashrate is pretty much constant or increasing after the halving. I would of assumed it would of maybe had a 20% difficult drop or so. However looking at https://fork.lol/pow/retarget seems like its on course for the retarget to happen in less than 7 days as planned.

Hence proof that most of the hashrate is some large farms which are unaffected by the halving. If this was something like ETH, then the reward halving would have at least a 25-35% drop at least. Goes to show how there is less and less home miners out there these days.

Most of these farms are probably hedged or they are holding the coins and selling probably on price surges. Unlike most home miners who sell right after they get paid from their pool to pay for power and electricity.

Thats only a portion of reason that attributes to the dump. I watched how the market moves last night and still wake up until the halving is completed, I noticed that price is really been manipulated, some whales tend to keep it price above $8,200 range but never goes down on that range. It also pump hours earlier until $9,144 ( Binance market) but slowly go down. For me staying on this level is already good for everyone, as the price shows a strong resistance on that figures. But watching the market now, I think it will gradually go up and people should realize that bull run needs time and as traders and investors patience is a must on time like this. We still cant be sure how miners will react on this, lets just hope they continue the will to do it even the reward is reduced by half.

The first block after 630k block was somehow long after it has been mined. Anyway, determine yourself if stand as a long term bullish or short term bullish.

A bearish guy is likely to think that the upcoming days will be going into that phase and it's possible. But if you belong to the long term bullish, you'll ignore that and just relax while waiting for the bullish return of btc.

It's hard to guess the price of bitcoin after halving success is it possible in the next few weeks bitcoin will not be able to redeem the $ 10k figure? I do not know how it is possible because of the condition of the world crisis, then this also affects bitcoin so it falls deeper before it.

Of course people who have bought high at current prices will panic a little because what they are worried about is not going to happen again in the near future.

This Halving was really disappointing and the excitement is gone now, many of the investors were holding their asset only because of this from now there will be a extreme panic. If this happens I am sure the price will start dropping massively, apart from that COVID-19 too has been a major concern as people are selling their holdings because of lockdowns. I am really worried about the upcoming days...

the chart looks very different this time to the last halving, sideways vs slow up.

I think a few months out everyone will be caught with their pant down when they realise how few btc are now available in new supply and hit the buy button, and this trend will continue to the next high and crash, circa 200 K then back to 40K or some such.

This should play out in about a year or two.

The real issue is there are always fewer sellers because you shake out everyone who would sell each cycle, so the market is selecting for committed hodlers

So far there are no major changes in.price and to my opinion it will stay so. Price will continue to fluctuate in the current range.
However, this is not the typical time and not only halving affects the price. Pandemic also left the trace as well as lockdown and global crisis that is coming.
Because all of that I wouldn't give any kind of predictions for Bitcoin price in the upcoming period, all kind of surprises are possible.

Q3 to Q4, 2020 will be the month for Bitcoin to be accumulated, I believe this happens because Bull and Bear have passed,
Bear when Bitcoin drops to $ 3800, and Bull When Bitcoin goes up to $ 10000, the accumulation zone will be at $ 8000

The truth is, no one knows what will happen but we will see to it and wait. The first and second halving results are showing good performance in the market after the halving was successful occurred if we check back the previous halving, after a couple of months Bitcoin price blown up the price. So probably we must be ready what will happen because there should be an impact after the halving, investors might they will buy bitcoin in anticipation. Because you can't jump in when the price of Bitcoin moving up after this halving.

I hope this time of halving is the same as the previous two events because I have doubt that it is different just because of the world recession due to the coronavirus pandemic crisis.

Nothing's change from the last few days of movements. It's still going sideways even after a few hours from the block halving. There's still no indicators on whether we're heading for a bullrun or bearish run. However, the Bitcoin block halving has caught a lot of attention from the internet, so we might be assuming a good run from here. For sure, people during the lockdown and home quarantined has a lot of time to read on cryptocurrency and the important events of this technology. They might get interested and put their money in Bitcoin.

Even though I was wrong with my prediction but I was really optimistic to think about a rallying market a few days from now. It possible we are getting back to $15k in the next quarter. I could say this because some countries are starting to return their "new normal" operation, the opening of some businesses will help to recover the economy in these countries and that was potential for the crypto market growth.

I predicted 10k earlier and saw bitcoin getting to 10k couple of days ago. But I think bitcoin trading this year will be Negative. The price is lower than 9000. It's dropping back but may not exceed 8k, If it can hold at 8k this month. I predict another rise to 10k.

It's bad for people who have too much expectation.

This is for the best.
Patience is what we needed.
Just try to calculate everything for now or use this time to be the opportunity to buy more.
Do always keep in mind that it could go anywhere.
It doesn't always mean that the value should go up after a halving happens.

It is expected to not having a huge jump in bitcoin price near the halving but $10k was quite good as a start which is as usual followed by collecting the profit.
For now i expect a stable balance before the bull run starts again!

I know the expectations are very high now that the halving has been completed successfully but I do not think that anything is going to happen immediately, it is going to take a few months for the market to feel the smaller supply coming from the miners, but even then I do not really see the market conditions for a bull market to take place, but a bear market is also unlikely so I really expect that this particular year is going to have its ups and downs but it is not going to be anything as impressive as what people want to see.

I am quite happy that there was nothing technically wrong when the halving happened and that is what I really cared about. Everyone was excited about the fact that we are going to have a lot less bitcoin printed everyday and that is cool because you know there will be less bitcoin in the market being sold and that is awesome etc etc.

However I wasn't really sure if bitcoin coding was still standing nice, I mean maybe this halving would create some issues, create some bugs, maybe some hacker would see something right at the block of the halving and get some etc etc, I am not really smart enough to know what could have happened but it was basically a useless fear like 2000 year scared many people about technological stuff which turned out to be nothing, pretty same I think.

IMO, it will be bearish at post halving.
Maybe at its first month.
The hype really is not that much. Well, that is normal since we are busy taking care of ourselves so that we won't be infected by the virus.
After this though will be crucial.
It might sway a lot into different prices. Then, we might see the real correction which will take back BTC to 12k-13k.

   South Park, I think it would be better to say some people have high expectations, but not all of us! Like the
last time, FOMO was at peak as the halving day was closer, but now after halving we have a calm situation. The
price didn't react, but that is normal, for me the best thing is that we had a very high price at the moment of
halving, and that can be a great start for any future rise, and that will come, we just need to be patient.

the mistake that many people made like the previous halving was that they were expecting price to jump up right before the halving and all through the halving.
but this has never been true about any market movements. the rises or falls take place as the news comes out or as the hype shapes up. which was a week or two before the halving and that caused the FOMO and price did go up a lot then had a tiny drop and here we are now.

We have a different scenario now, compared to the last two halving,  the world's economy is on halt because of the pandemic, people are on a wait and see attitude but they still trust Cryptocurrency to move forward, we'll have dip followed by correction before we headed to another all time high, but that will be months later.

Nonsense. Do you really think people are selling bitcoins 20, 50, or 100 at a time to meet their daily expenses?

It's whales and institutional players who move the market.

I'm not agree with you. This could not be the reason behind dump! All stock markets are bleeding due to corona. We are directly or indirectly associated with stock market. This could be the reason.

There were sell-offs but it doesnt particular target out that cashing out thing because of Covid.We cant say that the pandemic didnt affect crypto market but i dont see the correlation between the two.
We've seen traditional markets are declining but crypto is still standing.Price movements are typical here on this space which can either be influence by whales or majority that panic sells. We can point
finger but not able to precisely tell on what actually happen.Talking with the price,well it did manage to break 9k price again after that 10k price pullback to 8k..We cant say its a pump but at least
we are seeing gradual increase.

So far this week I think bear but it is too soon to say as if we have any conclusion.   Wait till at least this month is over at the earliest, my rough guess was for this year to be neutral in sum total. 

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/A5eU9.png

The top prices for today are lower then the previous high in this area.   If we close off the week in such a way then it can demonstrate weakness on more then a short term basis, hence we could have more bearish action play out.  The harder point to discern is to what extent is that negative trend.
  Just after this graph was taken, we crossed the blue line which is the 2 day average and if we stay below that it would mean we trade negatively for this weekend and hence close this week in a lower state.    It still doesnt have to matter if we can get to 11k later in the month and so prove BTC has an ascending trend to it still.   
  We wont really know direction until we break back lower, say closing below 8000 might show this as its the 200 day average.   Watch 9200 as a bottom price to hold, a marker for the may tide.

Still there is no projection on the price rage after the halving, so everyone is in confused state about near future price predictions so still we have to time to make the right analysis and use the market condition for making profits.

I see halving event will not give any impact for bitcoin price movement. The price will remain stagnant and there is no bull or bear market. Unless we get an information which give a lot of impact for the development of bitcoin. I don't know it could be mass adoption from most countries on this world or an information that come from its miners. We already known that to build a mining rig to mine bitcoin is already expansive now, also they must spend a lot of money to pay like electricity and etc which I think ut will be difficult for the miner to stay. They need an income or profit in order to keep their system always on.

Personally I am not expecting the sudden spike in the price of Bitcoin after halving,  many crypto hodlers had projected a massive pump in the price however there hope is already dashed I expect the price to gradually climb upward with time while patience hodlers will laugh last while taking profits at a given market condition as you rightly said.

from my observations so far it seems that after Halving the price of Bitcoin isn't too bad,
even though it had dropped at $ 8500 now Bitcoin is above $ 9,000, a good start for Bitcoin for a new adventure

That is the variable that is going to change everything, not long ago the stock market crashed but since then it has recovered itself at an amazing speed, however the real economy is suffering with tens of millions of people being unemployed because of this pandemic which means that the markets will eventually have to go down again if this continues, this means that bitcoin will have problems going up in value as well as retail investors withdraw from this market as they need to use that money to pay for their bills.

We had an early halving pump happens first day of 2020 so maybe this is also the reason
 as investors being frustrated seeing the big dump happened last
march.but i know this is just a normal effect because there is a economic problem now and
 crypto market is not safe from the Corona virus infections so we
should be expecting no good growth that will come this second and
third quarter of this year.

I also do not expect sudden increases. in fact, I feel that a slow increase can keep prices stable, as has happened this year. well, we expect high prices after halving occurs, but it seems like it really needs a process. however, the price increase that occurred in the previous year also did not happen suddenly and happened gradually.

In my opinion bitcoin market is doing the best as the price doesn't go down unlike the previous halving, because if it does, it's likely going to affect the market and cause miners to drop out and the market will shed extra money. So, I'm really expecting that the market keeps going up here after for next 15 to 18 months.

Although that's not going to happen immediately, it's going to take some time to move up step by step. The price moved up to $10,000 and people thought it would go from there, but instead it dropped back again to $ 9000 price range. Maybe by next week we will see it move up again and break the $10,000 level resistance. Not sure why the psychological barrier around the $10k level is remaining so stronger even after the halving. It shows traders are still expecting bitcoin to test some low but I am sure all those bears will be proved wrong in coming weeks.

Technically speaking it doesn't really make a lot of sense for psychological barriers to exist, after all no number should be more important than another but we know the truth and 10,000 dollars is a critical level for bitcoin, during the previous year we could argue that almost all the price action that we saw happened around that level, as such it is very likely this is going to keep going to be the case until that barrier is completely broken and bitcoin never goes back to those levels again.

We expect to see a bitcoin price increase to the very highest price later. If that cannot happen in this month, we still have more time to see it in the next months or even in the next year. Traders will control the market by buying and sell bitcoin, and that makes the price will always up and down many times. But I guess, we are still far away from the bull run because bitcoin still at below than $10k so we need more time to see the bull run coming.

It would be a bumpy ride for sure and i do hope that it wont really show us some fake pumps or hype because we know that
later on we would definitely experience some serious price crash just like what happened in 2018.

People do expect for those breaking ATH prices but we shouldnt really be in a hurry because adoption doesnt really work that way.
It would still takes time and it would be much preferable if we do see price do clings up on a gradual phase.

Patience would really be needed when we do deal into this kind of market.

Price of BTC now is a question of a pullback to averages or not.   It seems to have halted the majority of its rise since March and now needs to revise that action.  I'm not certain of that and i think we need to watch for action indicating that but I think its quite probable we enter the familar stage with some profit taking etc.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/A5iQD.png

Thats my rough outlook and at 9200 we meet the 2 day average.   Thought its not a hard line its just some indicator of strength to any retake on this sell we had, above that is a bigger for weekly type momentum.   I reckon going back to 8000 is fair enough though it doesnt have to happen now.

The bulls, that's only my opinion and I could be wrong because in the last two years, the bear was controlling the market most of the time.
However, due to the halving I think this is a big event that should help bitcoin it's price, it's not only the hype but the future effect of bitcoin's value.

I am also thinking that bitcoin is already due for an increase and if it will happen, it would be nice to see it this year as we have a big reason to substantiate that increase. But, if it will only result to a unstable price, then we should try to consider enjoy the price volatility by making short term trades.

We need to enjoy the ride, no matter if it will bumpy, shake, or flat ;D

Because the market will be like that, and if we can use the moment for our benefits, I think we can make a profit. Thus, we need to be careful in analyzing the market, so hopefully, we can get the right time to enter the market. Yes, we already experience a serious price crash, and maybe this year, we will see that again, so be careful.

The adoption will follow behind the price, and if the adoption can happen with stable, I think the price will be stable too, or the price can increase step by step. I agree that we need to have the patience to analyze the market so we can get the clue to buy and sell.

Since the halving reduces the supply over the long term this should have a net positive effect on the price of bitcoin, so if you are interested on holding your coins for years or even decades then you are right, however we know that the short term movements of bitcoin do not have a lot to do with the fundamentals and it has more to do with the market sentiment and the current events, and as we know the economies of the world are not in the best shape and most likely an economic crisis is coming and this could affect the performance of bitcoin in a negative way.

Price movement is still in the same region for a while so don't expect anyone to say the exact direction of price movement. better expect the correction now then only at the end of this year we may expect a surge in the price.