Bitcoin Forum

By Currie’s reasoning, commodities become supplanted when a better commodity comes along, so, for him, the question is whether Bitcoin solves an economic problem that currently exists with gold.

“The short answer is no,” Currie writes. “Gold is not failing as a store of value as wood failed as a sources of energy in steam engines. Steam locomotives could go farther and faster on coal. But Bitcoin does not improve upon gold.”

This Statement was given by Sharmin Mossavar-Rahamani, CIO of the Private Wealth Management Group(Goldman Sachs) while having frappuccino at local Starbucks and fat fingering those $btc market buys on bitmex.

It's nice to note the U turn taken by the main host of this conference.
Apparently, back in the 2018 he had a very different approach to cryptocurrencies, and namely Bitcoin:

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EYoYnjDX0AEAC98?format=jpg&name=large

In case you missed, as I did on my first read, here is the link to register to the Webcast.

https://event.webcasts.com/viewer/event.jsp?ei=1323195&tp_key=71370c5805

From there it would be probably possible also to download slides.
I will try to smuggle all the possible material here, if not too heavilty digitally marked.

https://i.redd.it/4b1eoc9dnb151.jpg (https://i.redd.it/4b1eoc9dnb151.jpg)

Like I said it here earlier, they aren't bullish on Bitcoin, they used it as an opportunity to criticize it.

Thanks for sharing that. Are there more slides available? All the Reddit threads I'm pulling up from searches are from several days ago.

It's actually nice to see they aren't too bullish on the fundamentals (bad for diversification, no evidence of inflation hedging) since I distrust their publicly available opinions, but I'm worried this slide is being taken out of context. I'm curious if they discuss more technical and price-related stuff.

Also curious what they had to say about gold and inflation.

We do not recommend bitcoin on a strategic or tactical basis for clients’ investment portfolios even though its volatility might lend itself to momentum-oriented traders.

What about bitcoin, initially bitcoin had been proposed as a currency and, on page 29, we show what are the requirements for a currency: it has to be a reasonable medium of exchange, it has to be a reasonable unit of account; it has to be a reasonable store of value. Bitcoin does not offer any of that, none of the cryptocurrencies do.  And so people have moved from bitcoin being suggested as a digital currency to being an asset class. We don't believe that cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin, are appropriate as an asset class. Let’s look at page 30 to see why that the case.

First, it doesn’t  generate any cash-flow like bonds, or the cash-flows from equities that are  generated from their business, it is not generate any earning through exposure to Global economic growth, it doesn’t provide consistent diversification given very unstable correlations, it is doesn't dampen volatility given his historical volatility of 76%, compared equities to in the mid to high teens. On March 12 2020 the price of Bitcoin fell 37% in one day, and so we just want clients to actually see the kind of volatility we are talking about and there's no evidence, one way or another, whether it is inflation hedges because we haven't had much inflation since bitcoin was introduced.
 So, the thought that one wants to own something because somebody else will pay for it by buying it at a higher price, always relying on somebody else who want to pay for it is not a suitable investment, in our view, for our clients.

People have also quoted a lot of hedge funds saying they are going to be trading cryptocurrencies, and while something this volatile might be very appropriate for hedge funds and who wants to trade it because of the high volatility, that allure in our view does not s not constitute a viable investment rationale.
 We also want to make sure clients know that cryptocurrencies including bitcoin are not scarce commodities. There are many cryptocurrencies out there and even bitcoin has forked and we have not just regular bitcoin, but now we have bitcoin cash and bitcoin SV.

On page 32 we highlighted how these cryptocurrency has been used for very illicit activities from Ponzi schemes to money laundering, to Dark Net where people buy illicit goods to actually ransomware, and it's important just  to recognise that least what we've highlighted in red is from 2019, so this not old information, this is current information where people use cryptocurrencies to actually have ransomware attacks on let's say emergency responders and healthcare providers. Obviously, we intentionally highlighted those two, given the current state of the pandemic.
It is also important to recognise that there's a lot of hacking and inadvertent losses with digital wallets, all kind of issues, and we've highlighted them on page 33..

Page 34 is probably one of the most interesting pages. We published this in early 2018, in our 2018 Outlook. What we see in exhibit one is NASDAQ, S&P 500 and TOPIX, TOPIX has different points of equity market bubbles, so 2000 example for the S&P and NASDAQ. We then move on to the middle one and we show the bitcoin in the context of the equity market bubbles as well as the prices for tulip bulbs in 1634 thru 1637, which was considered an extreme mania. So, tulip mania was the poster child for mania and then we show you where Bitcoin prices has gone, so clearly unreasonable pricing.  And then we show you on the 3rd exhibit where Ehter was relative to bitcoin, and Bitcoin ended being like a flatline.
 So the pricing here in our view is quite arbitrary and random and volatile.

This is fairly tame and repetitive stuff. A bit niggly on their part - they must have enjoyed screwing with us with their pre-announcements.

We should keep in mind that this report is centered around investment strategies in the times of covid-19 aftermath, and I think they are correct here - Bitcoin failed to act as short-term hedge, so investors should not view it as such, and instead base their decision to invest in it on either TA or long-term fundamentals of Bitcoin.

You are ahead of the curve if you learn why
- You should use log scale for BTC
- BCH/SV & other forks are NOT identical to BTC
- BTC is NOT a Ponzi
- Money laundering is NOT higher for BTC than USD
- Hacked exchange is NOT the same as hacked BTC
- BTC is NOT like 1637 tulip mania

Goldman Sachs: In 2019, $2.8 billion in Bitcoin was sent to currency exchanges from criminal entities.
Fun Fact: Goldman Sachs facilitated $6 billion in money laundering via 1MDB scandal between 2012-13.

Goldmann Ballsacks can suck my left fucking nut.

That's smart to keep one ball in reserve in case of a dip.

https://i.imgur.com/AizmzDQ.png

This is the evidence they still haven't figured out what Bitcoin is (nor what gives it value)

"Cryptocurrencies as a whole are not a scarce resource"???This is the most stupid statement in regards of cryptocurrencies that I've ever seen or heard.So basically those Goldman Sachs "analysts" can't distinguish Bitcoin Core from a random shitcoin with less than 100K USD market cap.This is hilarious.
Nobody with brains views the cryptocurrency world "as a whole".The different coins are competing with each other and Bitcoin Core is still the king.Bitcoin Core HAS real scarcity and value,most of the altcoins lack scarcity.

"Cryptocurrencies as a whole are not a scarce resource"???This is the most stupid statement in regards of cryptocurrencies that I've ever seen or heard.So basically those Goldman Sachs "analysts" can't distinguish Bitcoin Core from a random shitcoin with less than 100K USD market cap.This is hilarious.
Nobody with brains views the cryptocurrency world "as a whole".The different coins are competing with each other and Bitcoin Core is still the king.Bitcoin Core HAS real scarcity and value,most of the altcoins lack scarcity.

So basically those Goldman Sachs "analysts" can't distinguish Bitcoin Core from a random shitcoin with less than 100K USD market cap.This is hilarious.

This is no surprise, it is just a reminder of their agenda. Anyone who has been watching them has seen this over and over. I am dumbfounded people still want institutions involved at all and help push their agendas. It makes me sick to see otherwise intelligent posters support these scumsuckers.

And when you consider that even if a cryptocurrency has a significant market cap it doesn't qualify it as being a viable project or an investment option, as such figures can be manipulated.
Lumping up all cryptocurrencies together is as silly as doing that to Fiats and projecting the failure of one country's currency on all the others. Reason seems to have taking the backseat to agenda

Greetings,

Goldman Sachs’ Consumer and Investment Strategy Group gave a presentation last week that, in our opinion, severely underestimated Bitcoin’s value for global payments and savings.  

At Kraken, we feel it’s important to inform our clients why we think differently about this innovative asset that’s core to our brand.

Quite simply, Bitcoin has overcome many barriers to adoption, growing to a $170 billion market capitalization in 10 years with no marketing team, no investment bank backing and no support from governments.

If you’re still new to the technology, it’s important to first understand Bitcoin shares many of the properties that give traditional commodities and government monies value – scarcity, durability, portability, divisibility, fungibility and acceptability.

Our Bitcoin primer “Vires In Numeris” is a balanced report that addresses many of Goldman’s arguments and covers topics essential to understanding Bitcoin, including its:

Adoption and Use: Not a currency? The data simply tells a different story. Explore how Bitcoin has grown since 2009 by transaction volume, wallet downloads and mining hashrate, and why these metrics matter.

Origins and History: Too volatile? Learn how Bitcoin has grown out of decades of computer science research to achieve a market never before thought possible. We include a timeline of Bitcoin’s major events and inspirations.

Protocol and Technology: Not suitable for investment? Review the major components of Bitcoin’s protocol and learn how they have been combined to secure value stored on the blockchain for nearly a decade.
 
Download the Full Report (https://kraken.docsend.com/view/m6xykxq9b9p4yyth)

Please feel free to forward this report to friends, family and coworkers who are interested in learning more. You can read the full Goldman Sachs report and its findings here.

The Kraken Team

Kraken publicly answered to Goldman Sachs' Bitcoin criticism:



Inside the quote you can find a link to their Bitcoin: Vires in Numeris Report (https://kraken.docsend.com/view/m6xykxq9b9p4yyth) from Kraken Intelligence.
A nice read.
For sure more wittily, well written and intresting than the blunt Goldman Report.

Not to mention cites actual "FaCTs" in evidence unlike the Goldmann ballsacks FUD piece.

Crypto used to be where you ended up when you couldn’t make it on Wall Street. The quality of Goldman Sachs’ recent research on #Bitcoin demonstrates that there has been a talent flippening. Today, Wall Street is where you end up when you can’t make it in crypto.

Chris Thomas of Swissquote Bank published a point-by-point rebuttal of Goldman Sachs’ recent critique of Bitcoin, which Thomas decried as being, “very one-sided, unfair to the crypto community…and a disservice to the Goldman Sachs investor base.”
...
Thomas rebuked Goldman Sachs’ opinion that Bitcoin, and cryptocurrency in general, did not constitute an asset class of its own, writing, “The world is witnessing an emerging asset class being formed… Bitcoin, and select others, are the driving force behind the paradigm shift which is happening, “ wrote Thomas.

“Goldman Sachs is ignoring the strong foundations of this emerging asset class based on cryptographic principles, and a world where many, if not all, assets will be tokenized, and trading them will be democratized,” he added.

“Absolutely, Bitcoin did fall 37%... And just one month later, oil markets plunged 333% in the space of 24 hours, nearly a 10x greater drop, touching a low of MINUS $40 per barrel at one point,” he wrote, adding, “In December 2019, Goldman Sachs predicted the average price of oil through 2020 would be $63 per barrel.”

Thomas told Decrypt he felt obliged to offer a rebuttal to Goldman Sachs’ misinformed, “insulting,” argument. He said Goldman Sachs’ view of cryptocurrency isn’t necessarily typical of all major financial institutions, who must balance their fear of disruption with a willingness to adapt.

“The larger banks are on one side scared of being disrupted, but on the other side, want to open themselves up to new revenue streams and investment opportunities,” Thomas told Decrypt, “JP Morgan changed their tune and onboarded two of the largest crypto companies in the last month.”

Gold has struggled to find a direction since rebounding in late March on the back of the Fed’s ‘QE ‘ announcement as it remains torn between a large negative “Wealth” shock to EM consumers and CB demand and a surge in “Fear” driven DM investment demand. Indeed, the covid shock to EM consumer demand this year has been substantial. India’s gold imports plunged by 99% in April/May, while Russia’s central bank stopped buying gold since the oil price collapse. While the Chinese gold premium (a proxy for onshore demand) has recovered from recent lows, it still remains below its historical average.
Offsetting this weakness has been an unprecedented surge in DM “Fear” driven investment demand. Year-to-date gold coin demand is up 30%, total weight of gold in ETF’s is up 20% YoY and there is a large amount of latent gold demand. As a rule of thumb ETFs capture around half of physical investment volume inflows implying that DM investment demand could be up as much as 1000 tonnes which more than offsets the 700 tonne fall in EM consumer demand.
Such an unstable environment has raised concerns that, as risk-on sentiment improves with DM economies emerging from lockdown, the pace of DM investment demand will moderate due to less “Fear”, while EM “Wealth” demand will take longer to recover — creating room for a correction in gold prices. However, as we have argued in the past gold investment demand tends to grow into the early stage of the economic recovery, driven by continued debasement concerns and lower real rates. Simultaneously we see a material comeback from EM consumer demand boosted by easing of lockdowns and a weaker dollar. Accordingly, we are raising our 3/6/12 month gold price forecasts to $1800/1900/2000/toz from $1600/1650/1800/toz and maintaining our long Dec-20 gold trading recommendation

For gold prices to go materially above $2000, we believe inflation will need to move above the Fed’s 2% target and this move to be met with a muted policy response. Historically, gold’s relationship with inflation is non-linear. Gold does not display a strong correlation with inflation while the latter is moderate but becomes strongly correlated when inflation gets above a certain threshold. Gold also tends to go up moderately in deflationary environments. In fact, we find that what matters most is the deviation of inflation from its trend, rather than its absolute level (see Exhibit 11 and Exhibit 12). This is understandable — investor expectations of future inflation changes through time. For example, while a 5% inflation rate in the early 1980’s may have been perceived as relatively low, today it would represent a large upward surprise to the market. The relationship between gold and inflation gets stronger when we adjust inflation for its trend. The relationship holds in the post-Volcker period that excludes the extremely high inflation of the 1970’s.

...
USD is routinely being printed and circulated at record levels, and yet it retains its value against all the major currencies, and, more importantly, decisively destroys all the emerging market currencies...