Bitcoin Forum

I just recently woke up and based on my personal routine, I checked CMC and I noticed a sudden increase now Bitcoin reaches more than $10,000. I've read a few articles, for the past 3 months, this is the first time bitcoin reached new heights, according to newsbtc (https://www.newsbtc.com/2020/06/01/bitcoin-erupts-past-10000-tight-90-million-liquidated/), the jump was more than 7% before it moves.

What is really happening?

Still, based on the article, there is more than $80 million assets that was moved or liquidated on BitMEX alone in just an hour.

Photo credit to Skew.com

I'm not sure what's next to happen, or maybe, this is inclined with the recent bitcoin halving that this person: Mike Novogratz has the guts to create too much hype as he stated:


But no matter what this news tells us, I am expecting bitcoin greater heights in the near future. Just the same as his perception, there's a possibility that $10,000 might become the resistance. What do you think?

Here's another one, there are rumors that the recent red dot in bitcoin's stock-to-flow model (https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/stock-to-flow-model/) might impact the bitcoin price in the future in a positive way, they even indicated bitcoin priced at $100,000 in 2021.


I don't know why people speculate this much and create this kind of hype. Though there's still a possibility for an increase, there's not much basis for people to believe just because of what the graph shows.

Theres even that biggest Short squeeze : https://www.coindesk.com/bitmex-short-squeeze-bitcoin-surge

and now

We had that same movement but in the opposite side: https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoins-price-drops-by-800-in-less-than-5-minutes

Something new? This had happen in the past for how many times and remain questionable.

I've read Plan B's Bitcoin S2F model and all I can say is that even if his price prediction and explanation is very convincing the thought of his analysis only focusing on the supply and demand of Bitcoin made me feel that it is inaccurate. There are still a lot of external factors to consider when we are talking about the price forecasting of Bitcoin since it greatly affects it's price movement regardless of the current demand and supply of Bitcoin. External factors such as laws, macroeconomy, and adoption is something that the S2F hasn't taken into consideration which makes the price prediction purely based into it be inaccurate.

It appears that we might also have a new Tom Lee indicator. His name is Anthony Pompliano. The dump occured 16 hours after this announcement he made on Twitter hehe.

https://i.ibb.co/yspWgDc/8-C61-C4-F6-9851-4-FDA-8-F06-A44-E88-AA9008.jpg

Source https://twitter.com/apompliano/status/1267604444650315776

I'm sorry but the spike didn't last that long, after Bitcoin going above $10,000 it seems that the price wasn't sustainable at all.

Over a $130 Million in Bitcoin Shorts Liquidated as Bitcoin Reclaims $10,000 - https://www.thecryptoassociate.com/over-a-130-million-in-bitcoin-shorts-liquidated-as-bitcoin-reclaims-10000/

And I don't know if this news has something to do with the Bitcoin rejecting that five digits again:

https://news.bitcoin.com/hackers-move-another-800k-in-btc-stolen-from-the-2016-bitfinex-breach/

Though Bitcoin surge to 10k but some analysis stated that a fake triangle break out (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/XBTUSD/EZX2Toxr-XBTUSD-8h-FAKE-triangle-breakout-then-DUMP-NEW/) is seen, and it happens. 

The article 3 Main Reasons Bitcoin’s Price Plummeted 14% in 15 Minutes to $8,600 (https://cointelegraph.com/news/3-main-reasons-bitcoin-price-plummeted-14-in-15-minutes-to-8-600) might be a good read to know why Bitcoin price goes down after breaking $10k.

The surge yesterday is a trap for traders for a further buy but after some hours, it dropped again. The reason for the surge is not certain yet for me convincingly. That is why trading with money management is always advised for traders because price can take any direction at whatever given order.

Nothing out of the ordinary

In fact, things are happening according to a scenario described in this (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=2552649) thread two and a half years ago (in early December 2017). In short, with less liquidity in the market, we are going to see increasing levels of volatility. It typically happens when prices rise exponentially due to liquidity running low, but volatility can surge even if liquidity is low for any other reason, e.g. due to halvenings, holding, etc. This is kinda inevitable with scarce and valuable assets

Then what about now that the price of Bitcoin drowned to almost $1k lose?

Remember that Volatile market is what Bitcoin and crypto currency is so any movement is normal either Uptrend or Downtrend.

What is important is you know when to Buy and when to sell,or How long to Hold and how much to sell.

we have been here for years now so we must be familiarized this kind of scenario.

The drop last night was provably attributed to the Bitmex Exchange reaching 8.6k, Imagine how many millions of USD were lqiuidated last night knowing that the long bullish season arrived. Techinically this is called a indirect stealing. They purposedly turn down thr market by dumping simultaneously. How does it feel to be played by whales, its not funny.

Only exchanges were able to gain profit last night and some of those traders that this is just an old move like in the history. Good thing I did not do any orders cause the fact that thr surge is so fast, retracement will always comes next after that. I just did not expect it damn fast.

Bitcoin is very volatile and everybody knows that this is not new in my opinion a movement like this can surely take place and can surely sway in the different direction without further notice, there are times that the market will be full of holder and buyer and sometimes full of weak handed people a sudden increase in the price isn't indicate a bull run anymore and a sudden decrease doesn't really indicate just a correction I think this is pretty normal but if the price would reach another all-time high then that would make me sure fall from my seat.

Just after reaching the $10k price the price per bitcoin also fell to $8.6k on Bitmex, here is the link to the article,

I guess there was a problem with the trading engine of Bitmex that would have caused this problem and caused the price fluctuations in short amount of time and when they would have find about about it they would have fixed the underlying problem that caused these fluctuations. But it is great to see the price break the barrier of $10k after such long time, Now bitcoin will again test the resistance in a few days so a few more short pumps are incoming and then we can see a big pump in the near future.

I understand your curiosity about the model and I've also seen a lot of published articles describing and discussing that theory. However, it's just a speculation just like any other that we mostly hear from different predictions.

Due to volatility, they've made that model which can make it possible to reach those seems to be impossible prices. The surge didn't last but still brought excitement that bitcoin's too resilient enough to get high whether it goes too low.

Okay, this was not the first time around

They are just exploiting the opportunities to make easy money, and it would be unwise to ignore them. You would use them too if you could. Ultimately, it is traders who are losing their minds due to greed, and who are made to pay for it. If trading folks stayed away from using insane leverages (like x100 which BitMEX casually offers), there wouldn't be short or long squeezes of this scale


If you don't use leverage or use it wisely, you have nothing to worry about. Bitcoin is a battle-tested asset which always comes back, no matter what

Well the price is lower right now but if you still want to learn more about what happened. The price was already trying to go up, the problem it had however was the simple fact that there was waaay too many sell orders that blocked its path, which is called a wall and because there was such a huge wall, even when it tried to go up it failed because it took millions of dollars to break that wall down before going back down.

However, bitcoin tried to break it twice which meant it lowered it enough that on the third try it happened to go beyond and after you break down a resistance point its easy to just go beyond that very quickly so it happened to go over 10k very easily. What is going on right now is the opposite, short future people are trying to keep it down to make more money.

We can check and it seems like we are back to normal again, that $10,000 was instant and instantly it fall back again, in fact it dropped below $9K before it starts to get stable at $9500. A lot of things happening inside the crypto world, bitcoin remains unpredictable and no TA could exactly predict the price, and with that said, I'd rather based on the rumors and the news than spending a lot of time analyzing the graph.

The trend is more reliable then the spikes, its fallen back to weekly average and its running up for another attempt right now is how it looks to me.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/A5swW.png

Each level above is a rung on the ladder but I only count it as passing through and moving up properly when it can hold for the daily bar, ideally we want to see it form on a weekly bar.   It is in the process of challening the weekly trend of falling prices thats been roughly true since last summer, a big movement and breaking that would presumably lead to the far higher prices many had hoped for.
   I generally think we keep going back and forth and my bias is neutral for this year, a break next year.   The bulls resolve already got tested in March I guess is important to note.

It makes a surge because someone makes a push on it.

Well, we don't know who really they are but I'm pointing into market manipulation which only big investors are capable of doing this. But that was unfortunate as it only stays for just hours and falls again. That it could be a trap for small investors?
Though it happens multiple times in that past days but the drops are meant surprising into the part that we think the momentum will continue to bullish.

And on the opposite, it drop because someone pull the strings. Tit-for-tat.

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Yes, I read that S2F model, predicting that the price will surge ahead after hitting $10k.

But wait, did the model also pointed out that we are going to see a dip after getting into $10k?

My point is that we can't really be assure of the PlanB or PlanC of S2F model, however, we don't need to complicate things though, as long as you are holder and wait for 2024 to cash out and take your profit, then don't bother with this S2F model, just saying.

I've always considered guys like Pomp to be just as useful/useless as Tom Lee. To be fair, he hasn't usually stuck his head out like this before, I always wonder what makes guys like them put themselves out on a limb. What's it matter if they're right anyway? With all the stuff he says on his podcast, it's okay, it's cool, why you gotta be all wise and see the bull coming?

Isn't the answer obvious? They are probably heavily invested in something themselves and thus pursuing their own financial interests. In the end, it all comes down to how well they manage to hide their real intentions and push their agendas, and, as a result, how well their approaches are going to pan out for them personally and their pockets 

For example, the infamous scam artist Bernie Madoff from Wall Street was sometimes turning down potential investors so as to make it look like he is a real deal because people typically don't expect that a con artist would easily refuse to take money for their schemes. But it was paying off handsomely, even though he still ended up in jail

Most people would do the same in their place, though probably not as artfully and deviously as Madoff

S2F model's analysis was based on the coin circulation and movement in the market, but they are no different like the other few chart analysis from different model. These are just remained speculations and not accurate.
What separates these models from most of the predictors, is that they have reliable data and chart analysis than pulling random numbers out of thin air.
So, obviously they can be a major factor to influence the market sentiments and turn people to believe which way the Bitcoin price is heading.   

These authors may have been invested themselves, thus tried to manipulate the market in their own way.
$100,000 in 2021 ain't impossible, but It doesn't look like a realistic figure consdering how the crypto market is reacting to the things that's happening in general aspect of this economic crisis.

Hmm, I still don't see the obvious answer. If you're someone like Tom Lee, then your bread and butter is about being a good analyst. But you shoot yourself in the foot when you come up with ridiculous numbers like some bidder at an auction, and you lose credibility for the one thing you're supposed to be good at. With Pomp he's an influencer, commentator, other than his being at Morgan Creek, so he doesn't need to make a call about a bull run that is or isn't happening. He can just keep pushing old drivel without making commitments.

Madoff? Can't see the comparisons but I think it was a bit more complex with Madoff, he was after all running a ponzi, but a complex one which he was constantly feeling guilty about. Probably turned down stuff he knew he couldn't manage well.

this is definitely impossible. When I look at that number $100,000 per bitcoin and see the price of bitcoin struggling to stay above $ 10,000, I wonder how anyone can be so optimistic as to dream about $100,000? it looks like the crypto market is a gold mine, where people put little money today and tomorrow the money has multiplied a lot


at first I thought that some people just wanted to appear on the news channels when they made these exaggerated price forecasts, but now I start to convince myself that these people must have bought a lot and want to make a lot of money so they keep making these exaggerated price forecasts to encourage many people to buy bitcoin and make the bitcoin price go up a lot

Okay, let's say the answer is not that obvious then

So let's rephrase the point in question as a question. Do you really expect public figures (influencers, commentators, etc) to be always speaking their mind? But if they aren't, there is a short path to speaking something which is not. Moreover, you can only be a good influencer when those being influenced by you don't feel that way at all. As the saying goes, the greatest trick the Devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist. And while we are at it, how good is Tom Lee as an analyst, or any public figure, for that matter? Let me guess most if not all of his analyses can be reduced to either price going up or it is going down. That's it

Hopefully it will continue a bit longer, right now we are at a good stage where the price could go up very much but unfortunately it got stuck once again, that increase was awesome and hopefully it will get even better soon enough, lets just wait and hope for the best. Meanwhile that increase and sudden fall afterwards were all good for us, the price at least broke over a resistance point which means it will be easier to go back up at least.

Not saying it will be like taking candy from a baby, but comparing to how hard it was last week, this week it will be easier. We just need the buyers to collect themselves and regroup, if they can once again move all together which they always do, we could break through the $10k mark and this time around go even beyond that.

When stock is not moving, BTC will definitely be the center of focus. Hope this move can be sustainable

I don't think so this is true all the time, there are times that BTC and stock market are kicking the same time.

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I am also following the S2F model which I saw it first on the twitter and it is kinda accurate for long term part, as what I noticed is the RED DOT is the new update of the S2F model, which if you will compare it to the previous years, it is the start of Bitcoin's pump or bullish price actions.

His incentives are similar to Tom Lee. He's trying to get exposure for his hedge fund (Morgan Creek) and marketing to institutions who want upside crypto exposure. Secondly, I assume his fund is positioned bullishly, so he's essentially talking his book.

The analysis below seems reasonable, and puts the 4-year cycle theory back into perspective:

https://www.tradingview.com/x/RHBkpnqg

I don't know that it lends any credence to the 4-year cycle per se, but it does look like another Wyckoff accumulation cycle.

I'm hesitant to assume the market will simply repeat a fractal of 2016 though. That seems a little too easy. A lot of people are currently betting on a bubble. Meanwhile short levels are quite low. In 2016 there was much more disbelief.

I know David is leaving the possibility open for a Silk Road crash type shakeout, but personally I think it could be more of a multi-month downtrend (maybe into the end of the year) rather than a quick spring into a bubble like October 2013.