Bitcoin Forum

I know many of you guys sick of various predictions regarding Bitcoin price. But I think there is a difference between McAfee promising to eat his dick on national television if BTC didn't hit $1,000,000 by 2020 and an analysis made by Bloomberg. The latter one is more on a serious note. In fact, I think Bitcoin can hit a new ATH this year only because Bloomberg predicted it. Many people trust Bloomberg, and they can start buying BTC just out of FOMO. What do you guys think ?

Read more:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bloomberg-bitcoin-will-approach-record-high-of-about-20-000-this-year

or read Bloomberg Crypto Outlook June 2020 edition here:

https://data.bloomberglp.com/professional/sites/10/Bloomberg-Indices-Outlook_Cryptos_June-2020.pdf

Tired of predictions, yes  :)
I am in wait and see mode, I don't consider any move below 16k relevant. Too many Bart Simpson fake high & lows, IMHO

I am skeptical about this. Did Bloomberg pay for Tom Lee's services as their new source for cryptospace analyis and predictions hehehe?


We are an independent research boutique, providing market strategy and sector research.

https://www.fundstrat.com

In my view, I think that 20K is quite doable by Bitcoin even within this year. Right now, I can sense some momentum building though just like anything in cryptocurrency predicting can be a very risky business as there can be many manipulative forces also lurking around just waiting to show up at the moment they wanted to. Definitely, I would prefer to agree with Bloomberg rather than stick with the "dick" of John (just kidding).

If you read the article, then clearly you can see on what they based this speculation. They first cite the pandemic as a possible accelerator of "Bitcoin’s maturation as an asset", and then they add the story of how Grayscale is buying more new mined BTC than what is currently being produced. It’s all nicely packaged, but will one institution lead to a new ATH this year?

Tether is also mentioned in the article, and fact we have today $10 billion of USDT, compared to $4 billion in May last year. I’ve never liked the idea of someone printing digital money without them actually having real money coverage, in this case US $. It is a known fact that as far as Tether things are concerned, things are not very clean, and that a certain percentage of USDT is probably on the market without any basis for issuing it. If that means that someone will use such an asset to buy a BTC and pump up its price, and then sell it for a fiat - it is nothing but money laundering, that is, a legal replacement of the useless for the useful.

And not only that, experts from Bloomberg say that it is possible that by the end of the year the price will reach even $28 000, because last year high was $14 000, so I guess they think it’s normal that we have at least 100% growth every year ::)

Doesn't everything grow by 100% every year? haha.

Thanks for the summary of the articles. I've had the thought of "if not now, then when?" for if bitcoin isn't going to take off while many people are going remote and online, then what will it take?

I remain hopeful that tools are under development to continue to make things better in the future!

Do you think that if you trust some entity or an individual with their predictions, it's going to happen already? It's hard to put that on a person when you think about it. Since it's an entity, it's somewhat the same, but it's still a guess though.

Anyways, I think a lot of people are trusting McAfee too, with his name on an anti-virus, why not believe him also?

I'm hoping to see a new ATH for Bitcoin, hoping to HODL more.

Guys, like you, I know that their conclusions based on, what, thin air, yeah, maybe. I myself hate the so called "Technical Analysis", because it's like the proverbial broken clocks that show correct time twice a day.

But what do you think about the possible impact of such an optimistic prediction made by Bloomberg on potential Bitcoin investors? Aren't we witnessing an effect right now?

1. computer "Viruses" are an anachronism, they existed in the 1980's and 90's as a consequence of the appalling security of Microsoft Windows
2. John McAfee is a proven liar/fraudster
3. John McAfee isn't in any way associated with the McAfee AV software product for around 20 years now

It depends on how much someone thinks Bloomberg is an influential and important medium that can influence the broad masses? If we start from the assumption that they are the number 1 in terms of business news globally, then such speculation could have some impact on price. I have no specific data to say how influential they are, except for this article (https://www.vitispr.com/blog/10-most-influential-business-publications-in-the-us/) which gives some basic information about the most influential media when it comes to business news.

And as for the effect, I wouldn't say I see it personally - because people aren't so naive as to invest based on newspaper headlines (at least not most), and the events of 2017/18 are still relatively fresh. It should not be forgotten that the price of BTC before the pandemic was almost identical to what it is today, so all these speculations should be taken with great caution.

As I already wrote in another topic, if BTC follows the usual pattern of the last two halvings, then it is possible that in Q4 there we may see a bull run that will push us towards $20 000, which would then be a great starting point for a new big bull run in 2021.

It wouldn't surprise me if it hit between $20,000 and $40,000 within the next 12 months (e.g. June 2021) given increasing demand, the halving, and increasing use cases.   It wouldn't surprise me either if it was double that.  

The thing is that no one knows, if they did, they could short it now or buy it up now and the price would reach the point sooner than they "knew".  It is entertaining to speculate, but that is all it is, speculation as to the future.

The information about Grayscale absorbing 25% of the annual new supply is important.  If an ETF is approved ever, just think about the supply it will need.  It will be a tremendous amount if one or more ETFs are approved in the US, let alone if similar vehicles are approved around the world.  Sure, people can buy individual coins and they do, but if you are sitting at the computer and want to buy $10,000 of bitcoin in your IRA at anything close to the spot price, it is a royal PITA.  And ETF opens worlds of possibilities, so whenever it happens, it will have a big impact.

It is always important to remember that prices are set at the margin, so the halving in new supply plus even a small increase in demand can have an outsized impact on price.

The SEC needs to think about this.  Sure, there could have been (and may still be) manipulation of the BTC fiat price on some exchanges, but ETF demand will dwarf much of the exchange demand and as ETFs come online, the ETF price will be more likely to impact the exchange price than the opposite.  The SEC has it backwards over any reasonable timeframe.

As far as McAfee - Carlton is exactly right.

Agreed! It appears you might agree with the Big Short movie storyline for bitcoin to occur hehehe?

I made a thread about it in the speculation subforum. However many of them think it was FUD despite some evidence of dishonesty on tether.

So, Bloomberg News is in the top 10 then, right? It's in good company along with Forbes, Reuters and Business Insider, imo.


The Bloomberg Crypto Outlook June 2020 edition was first published in June 1:

https://i.imgur.com/Bhvnti3.png

And then we had this spike the next day:

https://i.imgur.com/TnkTrZh.png

But the would-be bull run was canceled the same day, which means you are right, most people aren't so naive, and they just took advantage of the premature jump over $10k.

Bloomberg....LULZ

They're nothing but a mouthpiece for the corrupt banking industry & have been 100% wrong with all their predictions about Bitcoin since day one.

If they predict a price hike, you can be pretty sure it'll be a dump.

Now I can't help but think that there is even a bigger dump on the way.

Blueprint of a crypto news website...

When you ran out of news or ideas, say:

"XXXX XXXXX said bitcoin might hit $XXXXXX this year!"

Always brings them hits.

Usually these big predictions end up being something completely opposite. Just take a look at what the mainstream media were saying when Bitcoin was about to go up and down. When it was actually in a bull market all those sites were skeptical and when it was reaching the top or beginnig its descent from the ATH they were talking about the great bull market and a lifetime opportunity.
There's a reason why most people miss these moves and never profit and that reason is most people want others to do the work for them. They wait for this or that puppet (like Tom Lee or McAfee) to tell them when to buy and it never ends well for them.

Six months left form now and almost form here if it must reach anywhere near 20k it has to be double in 6 months. Also, the first target for now would be crossing and stabilizing 10k levels and if it can sustain at these levels we would see some good highs for the years. Though anything above 15k levels for the year will also be the great result and rise.

Though I am still wary of many predictions as to the price of Bitcoin especially those exaggerated ones that are obviously made just to make some space in people's scare attention, I am of the same feeling that 20K as the goal for Bitcoin is not too much and if things can be going well then that can happen within this year. Anyway, all we can all do is hope, wish and even pray that the current bullish trend for Bitcoin can be sustained.

I thought it was reserved for CNBC speculation, and for that guy (I can't remember his name), but whenever he announced a BTC/crypto bull run the exact opposite happened. But we are not far from the truth if we say that the media actually live from big headlines, and everything behind it is just an eternal game of cat and mouse. I personally used to watch Bloomberg sometimes because I have it available on satellite TV, but I honestly would not base my investment on what I hear or see in such media.


Probably, no matter how we interpreted the data from the article I posted. If we were to ask business people, and perhaps some others, to name at least three such media - surely Bloomberg would be one of them.

After reading some parts of their pdf on why we should remain bullish in Bitcoin's price movement this year I feel like even an analysts in Bloomberg is lacking the words on why they think Bitcoin will "mirror" the movement it did back in 2017, it was written as if a crypto news website is analyzing the price movement. Yes I know they provided some sophisticated charts as well as provided some historical data about it but it just feels like what they are saying in their file has already been said before and some of that predictions failed due to comparing Bitcoin's future price movement to it's historical price movement.

Not even for a moment I thought their TA was right in itself. Imo, by talking about Bitcoin's possible mirroring its previous behaviour they(Bloomberg) are mirroring an infinite number of analyses made by less respected news outlets. I just thought their article might have had a positive impact on Bitcoin price, and I'm still not sure whether there was one or not. Maybe it was a coincidence, but that highest peak over there

https://i.imgur.com/XCWCPUF.png

happened exactly the next day after the Bloomberg's analyses was published.

These predictions are mostly random and they are making a prediction with stock market examples.
1. Bitcoin is doing almost random things at the price
2. Bitcoin will never be like the stocks - it is opened 24/7 and there are no regulations - can't just stop trading so people will not be panicking so much.

So Bloomberg - you just wasted your time. But we are glad, that you are interested in crypto.

July 7th, I had to come and see that thread, current price  $9250.

there are 5 months to go before the year ends and the pandemic seems to be getting worse in some rich countries the situation is being a great disaster and unemployment is increasing due to this pandemic. I also believe that people will not have much money to make investments, maybe even the focus now is to buy food and stay at home, as this whole situation is so extreme as these blomberg guys can be optimistic to the point of thinking that we would see  $20,000 this year? where does it come from so much money to increase the price? I highly doubt that this year the price will exceed 13000 $ unless they say that this year there will be a vaccine for this virus to vaccinate people en masse and then the markets will recover very quickly which is not possible in 5 months left for the year finish


I think that until June of the next year the price will be  $17000 maximum, I am not seeing more than $20,000

If that would help to convince people from buying Bitcoin, then that would be very helpful and I'll be glad to welcome a new bull run.
However, based on my personal analysis, I am not seeing yet that bitcoin will break its current ATH and people will get FOMO'd again, that's because this year was a bad year for our economy and it takes the same scenario in the past where people are getting FOMO to bring the price up.

I don't know if the whales are capable of doing that price to go that high, but I doubt it will happen this year as I believe they also understand that the timing is not good and they might just fail from their expectation.

I dont easily buy out those kind of predictions no matter how trustable they are or known ones yet i do rather believe if they do make out these bullish calls

that there would be some sort of deep pullbacks in prices for them to get in first before the price starts to cling up into the ladder.

$20k price is somehow realistic compared to those numbers like 50k - 100k predictions recently which is total BS!

It is rightly noted here that we still have a big problem with the spread of coronavirus and therefore the economies of states continue to fall, and their economic performance deteriorates. However, if at the initial stage of the spread of coronavirus, the cryptocurrency market fell significantly in price, now the consequences of fighting it can push the cryptocurrency market to growth.
 If, due to the coronavirus, a tough global economic crisis will soon begin, then people will save their usual currency from inflation and invest in cryptocurrency. Therefore, bitcoin and other potential cryptocurrencies for development will skyrocket in value. Then the predictions about the bitcoin price of $ 20,000 by the end of this year will be quite real.

today Is the 26th of July and current price: $9700 ... Since October last year, the price has failed to break the $10500 and whenever it tries to break the $ 10500 the price drops a lot. That's why I'm only going to be optimistic if the bitcoin price breaks $10,500 and remains above $ 13,000 if it is to reach $ 20,000 this year. If the price does not break the $13,000, I not dream of $20,000 this year

In last couple of days then things have suddenly changed, and bitcoin has moved quite fast from 10k level to 11200$ at present price. This has been a quick movement and only thing in coming time will know if it can survive above 11k levels or it is just a short rally where some of them might make quick bucks with this rally. But a good time for traders since this volatility is what makes them happy and for investors as well as some of them can book some profits too.

Given the halving of new supply and increased demand, $20k is definitely within reach for 2020.  Perhaps higher.   During the previous halvings, it wasn't instant, but took months to a year.  No complaints here for sure.

Bitcoin Price Fills New Futures Gap as Bullish BTC Heads to $12K (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-fills-new-futures-gap-as-bullish-btc-heads-to-12k)

It seems that many investors are excited about bitcoin, but the question I continue to have is: Is this bitcoin price increase not related to ETH 2.0? example: Whales take advantage of the ETH 2.0 pump by buying bitcoin so that other people also think that bitcoin is in the bull run?

I may be wrong, but in my opinion newly mined BTC is not "supply", in the market sense of the word. "Supply" is the amount people are willing to sell. It can exceed the amount of newly mined Bitcoin many times, or, theoretically, it can be less than that, if miners prefer to hold instead of cashing out right away.

In other words, even if halving does affects the "supply", it does so to a very limited extent.

:D please confirm in simple, unequivocable terms that you are trolling

One webpage does not have the power to push BTC so high or even move it, bloomberg writes about many other assests with far less of a marketcap and even those they can not move.

But in general ,for the first time in long time i belive that BTC will hit ATH this year! The techincals and te fundementals of financial markets is the reasoning for me.

I'm not trolling in the sense that most trolls are doing: saying something they don't believe themselves just to start a war in the comments.

Here's what I think. In earlier days all mined Bitcoin was the "supply". And since there were so many of them: 7,200 newly minted coins each day, and there were almost no demand, and miners were willing to sell their coins whichever way to get at least something for their efforts(remember Bitcoin Pizza event), the price was so low. But with time things have changed. A market has emerged, with some demand there, and the price started to climb up. Some miners opted to hold their coins instead of selling them, and, at the same time, "traders", people who bought up thousands of cheap coins earlier, were willing to cash out with profit, crashing the price, and buying cheaper coins again later, selling them at increased price, and so on. Since then, the "supply" started to be formed, mostly, not by newly minted coins, but by the combined amount of coins sold by traders.  And this situation only intensifies with every new halving, meaning that the "supply" is less and less affected by the amount of coins mined during a previous day/week/month ...

Again, I'm not sure, whether I'm right or wrong. So, it's not trolling. If you can show that I'm wrong, I will accept it, and will be grateful to you for showing.

well, you've got the right idea, absolutely

I guess it depends on what you mean by "market supply", the miners coins may well not be hitting the exchanges in a way that affects the published price, but the miners are almost certainly selling a great deal of them outside of the exchanges (profit margins are slender in cryptocurrency mining, and operating costs are both high and payable in fiat). Although the marketplace for BTC (strictly speaking) includes OTC sales, it's just that these are private sales, not public.

It's quite likely that the BTC sold by miners therefore do not (at least in the instant where they are sold initially) affect the market price, but maybe this is what you are arguing, that the supply trading on exchanges is more static than is implied by the block subsidy halvings? Sounds like a bullish argument ;D

That is why I specifically said "new supply" - which you highlighted.  :-)  When you decrease the new supply on the market you certainly decrease the amount that miners are able to sell, whether or not they do so immediately or not.  That decreases the overall "supply" that is available to be sold on the market.  

It is critical to note that prices are set at the margin so a small decrease in overall supply due to a decrease in new supply, can have an outsized impact on price.  Particularly if demand stays constant or increases.  Similarly a small increase in demand can have an outsized impact on price when supply is constant or decreasing.  Now with bitcoin, everyone knows that the eventual total number of bitcoins is fixed (barring any overflow bugs), new supply is decreasing, the only question is at what price, if any, person X is willing to sell.

Obviously it is all complex, but miners do often have to sell at least some supply to cover costs.  Going to 900/day from 1800/day becomes significant over time just to pay the bills and they have 900 fewer per day to sell to cover costs -- at current prices 900/per day is around US$10-$11 million per day, or around US$4 billion per year in fewer newly mined coins available.   With demand from GBTC reportedly soaking up a large percentage of newly minted/mined coins back in the spring, cutting that in half seems bound to impact price.  Back in 2012, a decrease from 7200 to 3600/day didn't cost that much if the price was US$5-10, maybe $30000-$40000 per day. 

Nothing is guaranteed, but the past 2 halvings have had a large impact on price.  Increased or constant demand and less "new supply" seem to be a recipe for a higher fiat price. (Speaking of fiat, printing an extra US$5-10 trillion for coronavirus aid should make people aware of the dangers of fiat inflating purchasing power away).

:-)

Yes, indeed!  By saying that halving has little to no effect on BTC price I'm not trying to sound bearish. Not at all! What I meant was that Bitcoin price could rise significantly(due to increasing demand) even if there were no halving, and even if a million of lost BTC were magically restored and went to the market. That's how bullish I am! ;D

Patience is key. Over the course of months, who knows.  Over the course the the last decade, well, everyone knows what happened.

Have you based your position just because Bloomberg told you that it will go back up to 20,000$? If yes then that's a bad way to make decisions when it comes to trading in general. Even if they are renowned for their financial information it doesn't mean that their analysis on something will come true. With my first post about this topic I expressed my opinion that their prediction was lacking analysis as if a crypto news website is creating the article, that alone made me say that they aren't even sure that Bitcoin will indeed go back up to 20,000$.

Its never been ideal for you to follow up these kind of calls on where you do make out such decisions just because they had say that it would go back to 20k?

These people are just trying to hype things up but actually im doing the opposite thing.When these positive sentiments do come out then thats the time i do make shorts.

Just like what happened recently where the community and other sentiments are already on the positive aspect.I didnt hesitate to sell-off and secure out profits in short term and
now were back on 9k level once again.



You cant blame out people not to include these kind of main events to affect the entire market.We do always have that kind of perception when it comes to halving that it can really shoot the price up
but it had actually prove out that news isnt everything even on that main event.Some say that the effect will happen on upcoming months but look at we now? We are hovering back into those
previous levels on where we do wait up for too long to be break and this is how the market is too unpredictable.

Fall from 12k to close to current price 10300$ has hit little bit else it was expected to can cross 13k etc. But sill we have quarter and 15 days of sept and if it can rise and cross above 12 k then we can atleast look forward for a price of above 13k by year end or may be little more than that. But now it requires some push so that it can be near that 12k levels.

https://i.imgur.com/hvfKqjT.jpg

---

Whenever these exaggerated price forecasts are made, the price never rises much and the year ends with the worst possible performance. I don't understand why the hell they don't expect to see at least the price reach $ 17,000 and then make those $ 20,000 forecasts. Now it's September (almost towards the end of September) and I don't see how from $ 10,000 it will jump to $ 20,000, I get angry with these price prediction guys

Bitcoin whale cluster at $10,570 is the most important level right now (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-whale-cluster-at-10-570-is-the-most-important-level-right-now)

It is better that people do not forget to put Stop - Loss. it looks like another dump is coming

We had the block reward halving less than four months back, and it's impact is not yet visible at the market. From what happened after the first and second block reward halving (in 2012 and 2016 respectively), I would say that this impact will become visible in 6 to 12 months time after the halving event. So you can expect a big spike sometime in November or December this year. And this spike will not be a minor one, which takes the exchange rates from 10k to 12k. This time, we may witness a new ATH.

Maybe in the same way that it went from 3000 in September 2017 to 19000 in December?  ;D

Usually people assume that if something happened once it can happen again and I don't blame them for it. 20 thousand is a really modest prediction especially when you compare it to what McAfee used to say ;)

No one takes McAfee seriously these days. He caused losses worth hundreds of millions of USD, by promoting scam ICO projects in 2017 and 2018. Back then he was very desperate to stay in media limelight and in order to do that he made crazy predictions such as the million dollar Bitcoin. None of his predictions came true recently. BTW, does anyone know what happened to the over-hyped McAfee Dex? 

We are almost at 11k range now and bitcoin has closely recovered 1k $ in last few days. This is a good sign and if it can cross 11k and keep moving upward then the next and major huddle seems to be 12k level again which last time it could not sustain above that price. Let’s see if can rise and move above it and then may be above 15k could be the year end closing if the demands continue to rise and prices keep moving up gradually.

I don't think that we'll witness $20,000 per coin anytime soon. From what I could see, there is no noticeable growth in the number of users, or in adoption. The last time I heard about some major online store accepting Bitcoin as a medium of payment was a couple of years ago. It looks as if the growth has stagnated, due to a variety of reasons. I would say that Bitcoin would remain in the $10,000-$12,000 range for the next 7-8 months at least.

Hope that it touches 20k as soon as possible. Though not sure if this will happen in 2020 or 2021 but wishing that someday soon  we all will even witness crossing that 20k levels mark and for investors who waited for so long will be able to make some good profits as well with that bull run.

Bitcoin 24 hour trading currently -1.7%...
even so, the trading in the last 1 week has been very good. Bitcoin to $ 20k is not impossible but the timing is still a matter of debate. I'm personally not sure Bitcoin will hit $ 20k before the end of this year..

again:

https://ip.bitcointalk.org/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fi.imgur.com%2FhvfKqjT.jpg&t=618&c=IHR8slDTxusarQ

we’re already in November and we’re at $ 12900, so there’s less than 80 days to see $ 20,000, I’m still waiting and funny that when paypal said that it will allow people to buy bitcoin using paypal I keep seeing images of rockets going to the moon and news like this:

Novogratz calls PayPal’s Bitcoin news 'the shot heard around the world on Wall Street’ (https://cointelegraph.com/news/novogratz-calls-paypal-s-bitcoin-news-the-shot-heard-around-the-world-on-wall-street)

but why not wait for the first weeks after paypal executes this service to know the real effect it will have on the market? why run to make optimistic forecasts without any solid foundation? and to make matters worse it seems that John McAfee's prediction is already being a standard for some people, let's see:

Bitcoin price rise to $500k is inevitable, Winklevoss twins say (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-rise-to-500k-is-inevitable-winklevoss-twins-say)

500k is inevitable?

I see this price as something extremely exaggerated, and I thought I wouldn't hear that price again

Do you remember what happened in 2017? Back then also the exchange rates moved in a similar pattern. It will be clear if you check the coinmarketcap charts from October 2017 to December 2017. There was a gradual increase from $4,290 during the first week of October to $19,750 in the third week of December. There were temporary spikes and dips. And you can see that it is not a straight line.

I think it is impossible to reach 20,000$  Here I hope to know more friends who understand foreign exchange, and come to discuss the foreign exchange market.

I love this meme ;D still waiting for $20K.
a lot can happen in a week, we are not yet in November but the price right now at $13,700, quite promising for a further leap over $14K and short dip to $13K.
is this occur because of PayPal? it's not just PayPal entering the crypto market, several institutional investors such as Microstrategy and others, seems like a snowball effect.
Personally, I'm not expecting bitcoin to reach $20K by the end of this year, but anything can happen in 2 months, so keep watching the movement and be ready to buy and sell at the right time.

Let's just face it, Bloomberg is just guessing.  No one knows.  They want clicks and will publish articles to get them using just opinion.

The same type people who are doubting that it will hit $20000 were doubting that it would reach and then even maintain dollar parity. And then $10 and then $30 and then $100 and then $1000 etc. No one knows, but the last decade of experience should have taught people that bitcoin has great benefits and as more and more people realize it, the price will continue to rise.

Don't know on why the hell people are way too impatient to look or reach that $20k stuff? Not to be bitter but its more preferred on this way where you can play out with
price volatility.You wont really be minding much if price can go into a certain point specially if you are doing active trades.

When it comes or do talks about reasons on such price increase then we know that majority is been talking about that Paypal thing but as mentioned there were
several factors that do add up into that.

2 months time is really just too short to consider on reaching out 20k usd price but who knows right?

Yep, everybody is making wild bitcoin price guessing at this point. From an editorial point of you you are most certainly right considering that now bitcoin is the most important trend in financial news. Other than that, I have no crystal ball but I am completely certain 20k will be destroyed soon. It's just a matter of time (an no, we will not become all bones while waiting).

Its already on 15k level and still holding strong at the moment.If it would able to held up its price for more days or weeks then we can presume that we will be heading next in 16k.

$20k price isn't too far off and now to those people who had anticipated that 20k wont really happen in 2020 then better to think twice yet there might be a possibility before this year end.

Honestly, we are just too fast when it comes to movement but it isn't really that too far off to tell that we would able to reach or see 20k price once again which is really great.