Bitcoin Forum

When the price starts to rise, many analysts appear making optimistic forecasts, this time we have the Bloomberg:

Bloomberg: “Bitcoin will approach record high of about $20,000 this year” (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bloomberg-bitcoin-will-approach-record-high-of-about-20-000-this-year)


do you think the article's arguments are solid arguments?

according to the article Mr Tether will be able to enter the scene again and will cause the price to increase a lot:


What do you think? are you ready to see $20,000 this year or do you think that even with miracles operated by Mr tether the price will not reach  $20,000 this year?

PS:

Mr tether just passed XRP:

https://i.imgur.com/tfNAuZe.png

Who knows in the future we will see Mr Tether in second place ;D

"The report says that “something needs to go really wrong” for Bitcoin not to increase in value. "

Erm, such as?

The price is still being batted around by small numbers of people on Bitmex. Until the hordes arrive I can't see much changing and there's little sign of them for now.

This reads like it was written by someone with little knowledge of previous cycles. Ask many people here and they won't expect much of this year. I for one do not expect it to get anywhere near 20 big ones this year. Fine with me if it does.

And they do realise Tether is also used to exit Bitcoin just as much?

Expect that we would see other speculators when bitcoins price is starting to crawl going upwards.Same goes when it goes down
on where these sentiments do pop out like mushrooms by those known people/media outlets/companies etc.
but totally those are just mere predictions that an average joe can also give.
Anything can happen thats why its really hard to give out opinion when you do know that the market
can easily fucked you up unexpectedly.
They're all interchangeable. One coin can overtake any other coin in top ranks and its no surprising thing even thinking that
BCH would hit up no. 2.  :P

Let’s wait & see, I think the price will rise but I’m not sure if it’ll be enough to see a new ATH by the end of the year. It’s probably just headline searching, these publications tend to like making outlandish statements.

New ATH - Very likely in 2021
In 2020 - Debatable!

I always hate when legacy investment analysts start saying stuff like this:


It smacks of institutions dumping into retail bulls.

Then again, Bloomberg ≠ Goldman Sachs. If GS was forecasting $20K, I'd be readying my bids for a crash. :P

I'll tell you one thing: their $28,000 target is a joke. If $20K is breached, we're going much higher than that. $50K or $100K easy, probably even higher.

They're doing a double disservice really. People who actually know anything about crypto will realise it's all clueless horseshit. People who don't and take it as gospel will turn up to find Arthur Hayes waiting for them in a dark corner with a cosh.

They should either send their legacy journos to crypto camp for a long read or poach someone who's vaguely familiar with the scene.

The actual report actually lists a bunch of factors that support their opinion, so maybe they're talking about a number of these going off the mark:

https://data.bloomberglp.com/professional/sites/10/Bloomberg-Indices-Outlook_Cryptos_June-2020.pdf

To name a few, and each of which has a writeup:


There are a lot more, but those are what primarily caught my eye. The report seems to be worth a read, at least.

It also has to be noted that the $20k prediction was brought about by following the 2016 pattern, which they did not say was a given. It mostly just states that there are a bunch of factors which mean Bitcoin is practically guaranteed to appreciate, not necessarily by a lot. This is just another case of a clickbait article oversimplifying stuff.

Bloomberg making a $20k prediction?

$5k confirmed. Time to sell.

when the price drops we see price forecasts of $5000, but at this moment it is time to see exaggerated forecasts


if the price were to break $ 13,000 I could dream of at least $ 17,000 for this year, but really dreaming of $20,000 for this year was too much.


those coins you mentioned had a bomb right away, while the case of Mr. Tether was gradually rising, first it was below the Top 8 and today it is in the Top 3 and it seems to me that it still has the potential to rise a lot e and definitely BCH will not reach second place, on the contrary BCH is falling to the last places


get ready because some people believe that the price will reach $100,000 next year, I keep thinking that if that is even possible then I could consider going to rob some bank and take the money to buy bitcoin  ;D

The $100,000 by the end of next year expectation has been repeated so often it's starting to feel like fact already. That type of certainty tends to make me feel uneasy.

My guess is that it fails to reach that by a large enough factor to make everyone feel like total dickheads, or overshoots it to a truly hair raising extent. We tend not to get what we expect.

Ouep, I prefer to hodl my coins until I open my eyes one day to see the bitcoin price reaching ATH, just like unexpected 2018 ones. In fact with bitcoin I already got more than what I expected, everything else is a bonus :)
Well 2020 is the shittiest year by far for most people in this world, I do not expect much from it..

This would be logical if the report spoke about BTC & pandemic, or before the announcement of Covid-19 as a pandemic, we had no historical data or models that illustrate how digital currencies will perform under these health conditions.

The situation has now changed, the economy is beginning to absorb, and the concerns of the code have begun to diminish, which means a recovery for all economic sectors, and therefore there is no need to risk very volatile assets.

If countries succeed in opening their economy quickly during this month, it is very difficult to see highs above 15,000 this year.
Here's the Dow Jones Index:


The economic indicators are somewhat positive.

The economic damage hasn't even started to warm up. Economies have been in suspended animation. Only now when reality is eased back in is when it'll start to bite. A lot of businesses will have no clients to go back to. A lot of employees won't have a job to go back to.

I had no particular truck with the idea of Bitcoin, or any high risk asset, thriving when the world is going down the bog. But the flush hasn't really started yet so we still don't really know how anything will pan out.

Let's be honest with each other, Bloomberg has always been very very bullish on Bitcoin (I suspect they have a ton of it but they are actually a software company at heart) but the pandemic really caused the drop to be right at the worst possible time so I do not think we are going to see $20k anymore.

It was totally possible if there was no pandemic, price would have been around 8-9 thousand dollars at least right before the halving and with the increase it would have reached to $15k or so levels and after the halving it would take some time but eventually because miners were getting less reward they would sell less coins as well and the price would have gone to $20k. But, since pandemic happened and not that much money left in the markets and price went down and only recovered for the halving, I doubt $20k will happen in next 7 months.

In no known universe would it have hit 15k. That would've been a totally illogical move that came out of nowhere.

The big arse drop may well have been pandemic related as the rest of the world ran around screaming, other than that prices have been what I was expecting. The behaviour is in line with the last halving when not much happened.

A halving takes time to digest and I didn't expect a return to 20k this year with or without diseases running riot.

Not exactly. In February the market was in a strong mid term bull market, and was testing the $10.5K resistance established last year. Had it broken above (breaking the downtrend from June 2019 to present) $15K would have been a matter of time. Looking at past bull markets (like the first half of 2019 for instance) BTC could have realized those gains very quickly.

The BTC market can be quite illogical anyway. Just like the stock market, its price moves really don't depend on fundamentals.

Bloomberg screaming $20k is like Tom Lee predicting moon: they both jinx it. They claim these figures as if they have something similar to a crystal ball that could tell the future. With the current situation of the world at hand, I doubt we will be seeing more than $15k tops in 2020. The global economy is recovering, but at a very slow rate, and I don't think a lot of people would actually risk money on volatile assets during these times unless someone actually starts buying huge amounts to effectively move the price upward. Bloomberg is a known bitcoin bull, but this is just too much for 2020, IMO.

As for them stating that "something needs to go really wrong for Bitcoin not to increase value" is overestimating the power of bitcoin's volatility. There are times when there's nothing happening but the price suddenly just drops a significant amount, and there are times when the prices goes insanely high without any catalyst or any sane reason that could explain it.

Tom Lee was screaming $20K or $25K immediately after the 2017 bubble popped, and for like a year afterwards.

Bloomberg waited until after a 2.5-year accumulation cycle happened to predict $20K or $28K. Much more reasonable. In the end, I think all of these targets are way too low, but in terms of market cycles, Bloomberg is much closer to the mark.

I partly think Tom Lee was dumping his (Fundstrat's) bags on retail while making those awful predictions back in 2018.

I've been closely following posts by Bloomberg, as it may outperform ETH given its market cap, although I see it a bit difficult, chances are, everything in Crypto can happen, but the fact that it's a stablecoin makes it Some interests are leaning on some investors who support blockchain.

Isn't CNBC the guaranteed touch of death? I seem to remember someone doing CNBC TA and their bullish calls were 95% wrong which is seriously impressive. You could make a fortune just trading the direct opposite of their proclamations.

i don't think it is possible to predict when the next big rally which will include reaching and surpassing the previous ATH, will start happening. of course there is a good chance that we see the start of it this year since we have had more than enough undervalued bitcoin with a prolonged accumulation but at the same time there is a lot of negativity going on that keeps postponing the start of the rally and lengthens the accumulation phase.

PS. Tether volume, market cap,... is like 90% because of altcoins and 10% because of bitcoin and that is if i am generous since nowadays about 2-3% of Tether is actually coming from bitcoin trading. and i think it will reach second and even first place (meaning above bitcoin) during the next rally as the next altcoin shitshow pumps and then their dumps begin and become much bigger than 2017 and as more exchanges and banks start putting restrictions and KYC on their users.
but all of that is off-topic in bitcoin speculation!

Well, it's not a surprise to be honest. Any donkey who knows about technical analysis can't ignore the historical charts AND the current trends of Bitcoin markets. And if we look at it, it's actually quite clear that 20k is possible. But, so is 1k. Back in 2018 I thought 2020 was the earliest we would get back to ATH but now that we're here, I think we definitely have to wait for 2021 at earliest!

I realize that everything has a high possibility including the price of Bitcoin which will break $ 20k..  this is not the first time an analyst has predicted the price of Bitcoin even though most of their predictions have been missed.  seeing from the Bitcoin halving that went well a few weeks ago, I think ATH Bitcoin this year (until the end of 2020) is in the range of $ 16-17k..  

Talking about Tether, to be honest Tether's position surprised me, how can a stable coin pass through XRP.  this makes me think "maybe in the future Tether has a chance to become the first cryptocurrency to be adopted en masse"..

My first thought: this isn't actually a Bloomberg analyst though, rather, an analyst speaking on a Bloomberg show. But reading the thing itself, it does appear to be a Bloomberg opinion -- a bit unusual but okay, cool.


I, for one, don't mind all the negativity. I'm far, far from my personal stack target, so I would really like a much longer time to accumulate. I would be actually cursing if we get ATH this year as I won't be able to maximise it, be a real waste, especially now am having to dig into reserves during this crappy covid time!

Here's to another year of price trolling;)

Everyone loves to hear how bitcoin will go up like crazy, plus whenever bloomberg writes about bitcoin they are very bullish as well.
I understand that they are a financial company as well but it makes me question if this is more about media side of the deal.

Who writes this, the person who is more involved in the media side that they want more and more clicks so they could make more money from the banner ads? Or is it the person who is working on the financial part of the bloomberg company that seen how awesome bitcoin is?

Because if it is the second one, at least we can be sure that it is simply a person who is bullish on bitcoin, there are millions of people who are bullish on bitcoin. However if it is the first and it is just media, I think they are writing about "AWESOME BITCOIN!!!" type of deal because they want you to share it everywhere bitcoin related and click it so they could make money.

It is always the same music, creating more hype will make the price increase and one of the best things is to shoot predictions of record highs... I really hope we'll have a record high this year, but I have learnt that with BTC you never know and analysis and predictions are just that, reality is another thing...

It's rather difficult to say given how much fake volume there is on altcoin exchanges. There is a huge OTC Tether market in China which draws on BTCUSDT liquidity at Huobi, Binance, and Okex. Since 2018, downside BTC volatility drove the Chinese market away from BTC and towards USDT. Nothing to do with altcoins, which are plagued by fake volume on exchanges:


https://www.coindesk.com/tether-usdt-russia-china-importers

Like Bloomberg, I see the massive expansion of Tether as very bullish. Once BTC emerges into a long term bull market (outside of this 2018-2020 range) we could see OTC Tether traders flood back into BTC, the same way they started leaving BTC in 2018.

I have seen many such predictions. Some of them were seriously substantiated, some not, but almost all of them were equally successful (like a coin  ;D ). It would be nice if the authors of such forecasts reinforced their confidence in them with real money (with the ability for an outside observer to monitor the trading position of the forecaster).
At the moment, this forecast (if successful) gives + 100% profit in less than a year. If the one who did it believes at least a little in it, then he is obliged to make a large financial bet on the success of this forecast.

I do agree that's it more likely 2021 as well unless there's more of accumulation right now since the pandemic is still raging on and people tend to find alternative for use like cryptocurrency other than fiat. I think we may see a drop later and coming months if we based on past halving data, $20k isn't the ideal price this year.

OK. but the effects of OTC trading, no matter its volume, on bitcoin market hence its price is so small that it is negligible. so we shouldn't really care how much Chinese or any other group of people in different parts of the word are trading bitcoin using USDT off the market.

every day I am convinced that Tether will be number 2 in coimarketcap in 3 years or less.


with this manifestation that is having in the USA it is evident that the economic problems will be bigger than imagined and the opposition politicians are taking advantage of this situation to create more unrest in people and as people have no job and things have become more expensive , everything starts to get more chaotic


anyone who has bitcoin keeps making the price more than $ 20,000 to make a lot of profit :D


I agree with you, $ 20,000 for this year in my opinion is something that will not happen.

Of course the OTC market affects the BTC market. Brokers fulfill orders on exchanges when they don't have OTC liquidity. When OTC supply dries up, buyers need to use exchanges and vice versa.

I'm saying we know a huge Chinese OTC market for USDT draws on BTCUSDT exchange liquidity, so unlike altcoin markets (which have huge incentives to pump fake volume) these markets are likely be "real."

Even if we subtract Huobi from the equation, since they didn't make Bitwise's cut, (https://twitter.com/bitwiseinvest/status/1109114665240616962?lang=en) just compare BTCUSD and BTCUSDT volumes at the 10 exchanges with "real" volume:

24-hour BTCUSDT spot volume (plus Bitfinex): $620,677,865

24-hour BTCUSD spot volume (minus Bitfinex): $244,247,346

Liquidity and volume is everything. I assume as long as USDT is trading ~ $1 that BTCUSDT markets have a huge effect on BTC price discovery. Whether people like it or not, Tether is a very important part of the BTC market.

When BTC finally confirms a long term bull market (past the June 2019 high) some of those massive outstanding USDT holdings are going to start flooding back into crypto. That's bullish.

Is this kind of FUDs? Or a suggestion?  :D
You can say everything and it is not impossible but it seems unlikely to happen, mate.
Till now, I still believe that the positive trend in Bitcoin can continue. Bitcoin price is still struggling to break the next level. It's a good sign.

Even the new ATH in 2021 can be debatable as well.  :D  But yeah, it seems more realistic.
Well, I don't expect too much on another surprise in Bitcoin price move this year. After some a big move before halving, I think we may face a correction time.

How i wish that Bloomberg is like Harry Houdini that can predict things to happen,but its not though this brings positivity to Bitcoin supporter and may add enough strong and courage for us to Invest more and forget about selling until we reached that $20,000 again.

Anyway i still believe that this year will give us certain profit( maybe not big as what this thread means) so let us keep our currencies intact and if there are no rush please stop selling for a while just this year lets see what will happen.

The fact is that the Bloomberg report deals with the analysis of the bitcoin exchange rate for 2013 - 2014 and 2016 - 2018, where on the basis of this analysis it was concluded that before the end of 2020 we should expect an increase in Bitcoin prices of $ 20,000. It seems to me that primarily their statements are based on the bitcoin halving, as at the reporting point, after which the Bitcoin rate has changed in the past and will improve in the near future. It just seems to me that they were a little mistaken and reduced the period of a possible increase in the price of bitcoin, because according to the indicators of the past six years, significant changes in the cryptocurrency market should be expected already in the first and second quarter of 2021, and not until the end of 2020. but nonetheless, positive news invigorates cryptocurrency users and this is true.

I dont really believe much when it comes to technical aspects where people already presuming out that things do happen on a specific quarter of the year on just basing on what happened in the past.

Im aint saying that its not relevant but nothing can predict out on where the price would shoot up.This is a very speculative market, history can be made in a blink of an eye neither seeing a

very high increase or would go down to the ground.Lots of speculators in this field composing from ordinary people to popular ones, difference here is that they do make much more noise thats why

they do get that attention.

$20,000 this year? Most likely going to happen next year. I myself believed that the halving in May is not enough to produce the $20k within this year. We will going to expect those figures next year and we might be able to witness the new ATH if we were lucky. As for now, we buy low and HODL until the Bitcoin bull run starts. We never know if Bitcoin would hit a new ATH like $100k like what the others said.

I am ready to see those speculations that they are making for this year. It's one thing that I want to see during this hard time starting from January of this year. And if that will happen, we're being rewarded despite the beginning of this year wasn't good at all.

It's a fact that whenever bitcoin starts to rapidly increase, they will come to tell us that they have an idea of how much the price of bitcoin will be at the end of this year. But in reality, they're all giving mere guess and 50/50 is still the chance of seeing it.

It's strange to me that a lot of people think OTC trading doesn't affect markets, but I think most people think about immediate price effect. If an OTC order is for 10000 BTC, it is at the same price and it doesn't cause price to suddenly spike, unlike on exchanges.

But you're right that it really does affect. Because the OTC broker who just sold 10k BTC still has to source and go to exchanges to get their bitcoin right?

Things are not looking that way, bloomberg could be a great newspaper and the authors are great I am sure, they are probably working on finances and journalism together and can read charts and basically all around be savant on trading so we should trust them, but they are still just humans.

Do not consider these articles as "bloomberg", the mayor didn't write this, some intern at some thrown to corner and not looked at desk probably given task about crypto since he is young and he wrote this, so we are talking about some 23 year old crypto lover writing and bloomberg publishing it on website since why not you know? Do not trust just because there is bloomberg name on it, dude has over 60 billion dollars and spent couple hundred just to be nominee and gave up quickly, he doesn't care about money all that much anymore let alone crypto.

It is hardly possible to accurately predict the price of bitcoin by the end of this year. There are many factors that indicate that its price in the next year or two can very significantly increase. Much will depend on how successful the further fight against coronavirus will be and how strong the global economic crisis will turn out, the onset of which is predicted in the near future.
In general, with a very good combination of circumstances, bitcoin may well reach a price of $ 20,000.

Everything is still possible to happen related to the growth of existing cryptocurrency such as the increase in Tether which is very great I guess, and related to the Bloomberg argument I think it also has a big chance to happen later this year because these arguments at least still make sense that remains normal growth lines are related to the situation that happened this year, because they usually analyze if growth will reach 100k or even more I think that analysis is very difficult to achieve especially market sentiment that is not always good and even difficult to cross the resistance line.

I think that it is worth reading the Bloomberg publication, which refers to the report of analysts from Morgan stanley who suggested, based on certain studies, that the world expects a second wave of the spread of coronavirus infection in the fall of 2020. If we take for example the indicators of the current period, then the economy of the affected countries may return to the pre-crisis level in the fourth quarter of 2020, according to studies of current indicators of the rate of GDP recovery. But in March, Bitcoin fell almost to 4,000 dollars, and today it has recovered again within the framework of 9,500 - 10,000 dollars. Based on this, the question arises of how the second wave of covid-19 will affect the cryptocurrency and the economies of the countries and whether we will all be ready for this. therefore, it is very difficult to predict something in this situation regarding Bitcoin prices even until the end of 2020.

We can't really compare tether though, they just have to mint it (just like fiat) and balloon their marketcap. So obviously, it is very different as compare to BTC. Nothing against Bloomberg, but it seems they have their agenda behind with this prediction.

Is it good for the market? Probably, but then again they are just giving false hope, specially for beginners and it will not be positive experience for them if the market suddenly crashes this year or the prediction didn't get to $20k at the end of the year.

The fact is that almost all analysts in the cryptocurrency market not only expressed their opinion, because they wholeheartedly believe in the cryptocurrency or are opposed to the development of the cryptocurrency market. Just in the first place, these forecasts have a definite purpose in order to speculate in the cryptocurrency market and perform certain manipulations. Therefore, one should always be wary of such predictions. Each investor or trader should have a backup plan of action in case of unforeseen developments in the cryptocurrency market.

Even beginners must need to search and find themselves on what had happened on bitcoin markets in the past so that they will not be disappointed on unexpected events on this crypto space. An investor must need to be ready to face anything while risking their money as no one could speculate exact things still we need speculations to make ourselves ready for planning for future levels.

Speculations are not new just because of cryptos. For every markets, there should be some soothsayers and market do react/ignore them on it own way. Spreading speculations and then manipulating markets with the expectation of trapping small investors must be part of every markets and protecting themselves against such manipulation is purely within individual's responsibilities as nothing could be done in the decentralized space.

It is not good for the market. Just because big names are calling for bitcoin to be higher doesn't mean that the price will go higher, and when it doesn't that will hurt even more. I do not think the best way to go is to promote bitcoin as a price thing everywhere.

Definitely, go ahead and talk about how blockchain is revolutionary and talk about how bitcoin is the future of money and many things like that which doesn't involve the price at all, and say that it is a good long term investment because it will be a lot more common to use it in the future so getting it now would be a great bargain, all of these works perfectly.

However, when you put the price in there and talk about the price and it fails? That will only hurt the price even more and would disappoint people when it doesn't happen.