Bitcoin Forum

So I was comparing the April price rise with November price rise. I overlaid the 2 charts and lined up the peak of the boom.  First thing i notice is the strong similarities in these 2 graphs.

Is it naive to think this is a sign of good things to come in the next few months?

https://i.imgur.com/OhhX2rB.png

If look at the June 2011 crash, it didn't start rising again until about a year later.

So the frequency of THE PATTERN is increasing.

The last few days are down now, but up on the older chart, so perhaps we are at a critical point right now?


The big Rally didn't start until ~Jan 2013.

after april 1st you will see these countries buyin in again
UK
Canada
Hong Kong
India
Japan
Burma
New Zealand
South Africa

due to it being a new financial year. so expect a rise in April when people start eating up the sell wall..

same will happen in October November after the american/costa rician financial year starts..

oh wait.. the graph points this out tooo...

Real world events, not triangles, smoke, and ponies.

The minimum was in November. It seriously recovered on New Year's eve and a few days later.
http://bitcoincharts.com/charts/mtgoxUSD#rg1460zczsg2011-10-01zeg2012-01-07ztgMzm1g10zm2g25

It looks like overlaying price action with previous years rallies is become a bad way to predict things now. In fact, every trading decision I made based on this was a mistake.

The patterns are similar, but seem to be increasing in frequency. Events like Mt Gox notwithstanding. Going by past trends, price will fall a little more, but market analysis time compression increases frequency and amplitude.

The environment is showing good signs. We still need a catalyst, such as positive news or another fiat crisis.

I wonder if the alleged predictive power of technical analysis has ever been scientifically tested.  It's "success" seems largely anecdotal and it smells like pseudoscience.

When you compare old charts you had so many things for pumpers to pump up that price. Including china getting into the bitcoin market.

Now all you have is country after country banning it, china out of the game, lots of alt-coins etc.

I sold my bitcoins at $800 and never looked back. In my opinion you would have to be a fool to invest in bitcoins at $500 each. That is so overvauled it is crazy. You are taking on such extreme risk at these prices, and you will not get those exponential returns like you could have if you bought in the single digits.

On top of that it is too risky to put up any kind of substantial money into bitcoins as we know you can easily lose your bitcoins. I won't invest 100K of my cash in bitcoins but I will do it in the stock market where at least it will not get stolen. 

The only reason the price is not lower is you have die-hard bitcoin holders just sitting out for the time being. Volume is ultra low. Everybody is relying on that the next bitcoin holder will not dump.

Had the same problem until about a week ago. Since then, I've given up on direct comparisons to mid-2013 (or 2012, or, for contrast 2011) and switched over to "smart" momentum trading (i.e. momentum with a modicum of predictive analysis), on a substantially longer time frame than before (3 days view mainly). So far, it works much better for me, but ymmv. Practically, this also means I'm now pretty much completely agnostic about whether the corrective cycle is about to end for good now, or not.

It doesn't work because it assumes that nothing has changed. Can anyone honestly say that nothing has changed?