Bitcoin Forum

So, we've had since about 5AM GMT on Nov. 20 with no super large sell or buy orders, leaving us in a lull of activity while we all wait (and hedge our bets) on the next big move. Up or down, that's the question. A single 10K BTC sell could drop us to $2.19 or so, while a 10K BTC buy would bump us up to $2.40, so not very large movements. 20K BTC would extend the range to $2.15 and $2.47, and 30K would give us $2.12 and $2.59. Of course, that's only if we had a single giant sell/buy order, as a bunch of smaller orders would quickly trigger bots to rearrange the walls. If we follow last month's pattern, we'll have a slow upward trend for the next couple of weeks, but who knows what will happen over the holidays -- any guesses?

wait

Just a few thousand more BTC depth from 2.15 - 2.30 to go..

What I know of candlestick patterns the rally should be over now and it should go down from here. (Multiple dojis at resistance level)

On the other hand they haven't been very reliable lately.
My other indicators (Aroon Down is spiking while heads downwards goes down) suggests that the bears have taken over at least temporarily but the bulls could get back in the race with a few consecutive buys. The bulls hope is that the bears overdo it again we will move out of the Bollinger Band bounce back in and continue the upwards movement. However if there is a sustained downwards move for over an hour the price would back to 2.2.

A crash is possible in any scenario, it all depends on "The manipulators"

I am liquidating part of my short position as long it is profitable to reduce the risk since I know the sentimental bulls can be quite resentful, just in case they really have enough funds to attempt a short squeeze. Stinks but security goes before profit.

I see on the Gox Depth Table, a 10K bid at $2.10 and an 8K bid at $2.15.

Do these prices look to be the new lows for a while?

SJ

Yup.
Or not.

shhhh

btw - on the GOX depth table, there are more bids than coins in existence, or that will ever be in existence (total = 27 million bid) 

Nudge nudge, wink wink...


If there are more bids than bitcoins, than it's like the silver market, way more paper than actual physical.

I guess I need to be holding "physical" bitcoin....

Which doesn't mean that they gonna stay there...  and that was the case probably when the price was at 20 also... To this comes people tend to sell at a loss if they don't believe in the fundamentals.

What fundamentals?

Demand to use it for barter?

I think the more relevant bit of information is that there is currently about $600,000 in bids.  There is, undoubtedly, more money than that sitting in MtGox, but that's all that we can see.  Even if there's twice that in MtGox, that isn't that much.  If twice the visible cash were to instantly advance on the supply, then the price would go to just about half the all time high. 

A million (USD1M) would clean out the offers up to $13.30 on Gox, but there is only 264,000 coins for sale there and could all be had for just $3M.

back to waiting now . . . . . . . . . . . .

No, it doesn't mean that at all. If two people offer to buy my one of a kind time traveling Volkswagen it doesn't mean there is a paper Volkswagen.

It's actually quite nice when the price isn't falling 5 or 10% within a few minutes.  Some of the crazy trading action in recent weeks has been triggered by Bitcoinica.  While speculators profit everyone else who wants to use bitcoin for something useful (they do exist, somewhere) are hurt by the massive volatility.

Market volatility should be driving innovation, not disregarded as "bad". Volatility may be the future that western civ is headed towards, whether bitcoins become widely used or not. If your business can handle bitcoin it can handle anything.

Merchants usually don't like to receive $10 for their sale... make that $9.50 a minute later.  No, $8.50 5 minutes later.  Oh look, it's up to $11.  No, back to $8.50 again.  It's fun for speculators but not for people who want to know how much money they are getting, one minute to the next.  For the foreseeable future bitcoin is directly tied into the value of other currencies.

A business doesn't have to handle bitcoin at all to be successful (well, unless it's Silk Road).

It's funny that, just now, this thread was followed by the "EVERYBODY CALM DOWN" thread.

It's just never right, eh? ;D

Going back to the theme of it's too quiet, I have noticed the BTC price chart for the last week where everything seems quite steady.

There are no precipitous drops, a good point of resistance in the $2.20 range, gradual 5% to 10% increase over a few days, a bit of a gradual sell off, and then it repeats.

I know this can change any time, especially with manipulator intervention, but isn't this nice, for now??

SJ

If the price is $100 then it's really nice to have such stability. But for now, the potential instability is still terrible for commerce.

We are at nearly $2.00 as we have been gradually declining so that BTC is finding it's true value.

Maybe it will go down to $1.50 and even further down to $1.00. Who knows where it will reset itself.

Is this not stability? I would think $100 would be way too volatile.

Zimbabwe super hyper inflation - and you're right, they didn't like it.

Inflation != volatility. Bitcoin never technically hyperinflated (>50% monthly depreciation) but it was still a bit annoying trading physical goods.

Who else has the sense that another largish drop is on the horizon?

I agree, it tends to be one direction only.

Maybe you should try playing electricity spot trading - more volatile than almost anything else I know.  $100 one hour and $20,000 the next, or $0.01.  Hard to tell.

I meant, that people should be working on technologies and business models that allow merchants to function in a society with volatile markets. The most obvious example of this is a service that allows the immediate conversion of bitcoins to a more stable currency or commodity (USD). Since that already exists, what about high frequency pricing? Allow merchants to update prices on the fly based on the prices of competitors and prices upstream in their supply lines. I'm just thinking out loud here.

Yes but I don't think that will be today. The 'rally' hasn't spiked yet and the buyer side don't look particular inviting to short into.
But a week from now I think we will finally go under 2.

It's interesting time indeed - the bid walls never have been bigger, but on the other hand it seems that the rallies are smaller and smaller even though bouncing back from the huge support.  The conference is on the horizon - but on the other hand the EURo fiasco has started another wave of getting rid of all risky investments.

The question for buyers, I think, is what the owner of those bid walls is up to.  We recently saw a very similar situation where what appeared to happen was that a giant bid wall was place, people's confidence went up and they therefore placed bids ahead of the bid wall, and when the bids in front of the bid wall was high enough somebody sold into exactly everything in front of the wall and then the wall was taken down and the price fell far below the wall.  I think because of that there's some hesitancy, for good reason, to buy up very far.  There's a good chance the same strategy is being played right now and the seller is just waiting for enough depth before he sells off another large chunk.

That's also my suspicion, add to this that everytime a larger sale is up front it is quickly gobbled up, it seems that is a very profitable trading strategy.

To make it sour for him we must just be faster ;)