Bitcoin Forum

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Disclaimer: The information's contained in this explanation is the result of my understanding of (Golden Cross and Death Cross) and may contain some errors. Search and confirm about it.

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Table of contents

      1. Introduction (#post_point1)
      2. Definition of golden cross (#post_point2)
      3. Definition of death cross (#post_point3)
      4. Golden cross VS death cross (#post_point4)



Introduction

Some believe in the ability of technical analysis to predict prices. technical analysis has many patterns that can be beneficial to traders, or who want to invest in the long term.
I will try to read more about technical analysis and share with you some information periodically, so do not take the information presented here as facts.

Before we begin we have to understand more about the moving average (MA), it is simply a line drawn on a price chart that measures the average price of the asset for a specific time frame. Let's take for example the 50 day moving average that will measure the average price of the asset in the last 50 days.

Bitcoin Market trend is over trend where the price of bitcoin is heading. There are two main types of market trends: the bullish and falling market. As the bullish market consists of a continuous bullish trend. And vice versa.



Definition of golden cross


It occurs when a short-term moving average crosses over a long-term moving average.

The basic idea is that the short-term average crosses with the long-term average so that the 20-day moving average can be used as the short-term average, and the 200-day moving average can be used as the long-term average.

We can express his steps as follows:

• During the downtrend: the short-term moving average is less than the long-term moving average.
• Trend reversal: The short-term moving average rises beyond the long-term moving average.
• The uptrend begins.

https://www.coindesk.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/BTCUSD-golden-cross-history.png
Source: https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-sees-first-golden-crossover-since-2015

Thus, the golden cross may be considered an important bullish signal. But why does this happen?
We all know that the moving average measures the average price of the asset over a specific period, when the short-term moving average is less than the long-term moving average, this means that the short-term price movement is bearish, and when the overtaking occurs this indicates a possible shift In the direction of the market.

Therefore, it does not require that the period be long, so it can happen in averages such as (15 minutes, 1 hour.)

Is this method accurate? Simple Moving Average (SMA) does not give accurate results as it provides more error signals, therefore traders use Exponential Moving Average (EMA) as it places more focus on the newer price movement.



Definition of death cross

Basically a reflection of the golden cross, where the short-term moving average is the long-term moving average. Hence a bearish signal.

Steps that take place:

• During an uptrend: the short-term moving average is higher than the long-term moving average.
• Trend reversal: The short-term moving average crosses below the long-term moving average.
• The downtrend begins.

https://www.coindesk.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Bitcoin-death-cross-3-day.png
Source:https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-is-charting-this-death-cross-for-first-time-since-2014 (https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoin-price-is-charting-this-death-cross-for-first-time-since-2014)

Some false signals may occur, for example, in 2016.

https://image.binance.vision/editor-uploads/3d730505287a4b49b760faf78f6b551a.png
Source: https://image.binance.vision/editor-uploads/89509a508506442abdd6c4e2309d28de.png

Golden cross VS death cross

It will not be difficult to distinguish between them, they are opposites like negative and positive, and both can be confirmed through high volume.
We do not forget to mention that such indicators do not have a predictive power of what is happening, but rather a reflection of the market. Therefore, they confirm what happened.

Will it get rich once I buy/sell before it happens? Follow a single walk-like strategy with your eyes closed, so you may want to consider other factors when it comes to market analysis techniques.
It is also important to track time frames more closely, so it is useful to review the time frame within an hour of a day, and so on.

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Sources
https://www.coindesk.com/bearish-death-cross-price-patterns-loom-for-both-bitcoin-and-us-stocks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWwa17CHmEU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6mckJdktXkc
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uXWB19V0frY

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I see these phrases rolled out with great reverence and ceremony.

Then absolutely sod all happens yet again.

I am profoundly uninterested in hearing it now. But if it gets people through the day I give them my full support.

lol like all technical analysis, its just something to note alongside other judgements.     I think it all has to be brewed together to gain a picture and then its still just possibilities, a good trader has to set a stop loss because they are certain to be wrong maybe as much as half the time and thats a profit for some people because they know how to play it smart.  
     We got the 50 day above 200 but seems very uncertain to me, I dont think now is a time to be confident of predictions beyond days maybe a week.   On the top chart, golden is followed by the biggest low in 6 months which is a test of resolve many would fail and sell there.

https://i.imgur.com/BpbMLim.png

Looks like Golden cross and death cross is bitcoin's bitch now.

We had death cross at 7400$ (sell), golden cross at 10 200$ (buy), death cross at at 6600$ (sell) and golden cross at 9700$ (buy). Golden/death cross traders on bitcoin are pretty doomed now.

It’s all a load of bull shit. I’ve lost count of the number of times people have been excited about a golden cross, predicting new highs & then nothing happens. Most TA is bollocks tbh!

Agree with LFC. 2018 even had golden cross news, as did 2019, and we all know how those years turned out! Got to say you got some cojones to post a July golden cross prediction on a day price threatened to break 9k support and with just 2 weeks left for it to appear.

Would love to be surprised though, so bring it on.

There was a golden cross in february: https://www.coindesk.com/bitcoins-potential-daily-golden-cross-could-extend-2020-rally-to-new-highs

The price have fallen to $3k after it.

BUT it is fun!! lol

I wish every bitcoin youtube video wasn't about TA though.

I don’t know, maybe I didn’t explain my idea correctly, I don’t talk or predict the market at the moment, it’s just an educational explanation of Golden cross VS death cross.

Not most of them, few give real analysis if several technical analyzes are studied.

Yes, the problem is that it cannot be known until after it occurs. It will not benefit speculators much.


I mentioned this part clearly, following one technical signal is like walking in the dark, you will not get accurate results.
not following any technical signs is like blindness.

Are there any happened before that golden crossed didn't continue or happened what we really expected?
Because as far as I remember before, a year ago I think, a lot of chart spreading all over that golden cross is coming but then, it didn't.

It's kinda difficult really, but still, this is useful, we all know that there is no 100% in technical analysis.

When 50 MA is below 200MA and price stays above 200MA than we have perfect situation for golden cross. The longer it's like that the closer and closer those 2 averages are to each other. When they are close and given conditions remains than we can predict golden cross (if that's what you were asking) but anytime price can dump below 200 MA or 50MA and stop it from happening.

That $4.3k Bitcoin happened because of covid-19 fear of recession. You cant predict from past charts such event. But that February 2020 golden cross was totally legit. May2019 was bull trap golden cross. The one that is followed by death cross and new golden cross.

It tells us that bull market started in February but was then cut off a month latter and put on pause.




People were comparing different day averages lines cross. So was not really golden/dead cross at that time.   But yes. charts predict future from past events. It dont account new not expected events in it. So is impossible to be totally accurate.

Yes, the same as last year,

https://www.coindesk.com/golden-cross-provides-glimmer-of-hope-for-bitcoin-price-revival

And it says that it is a indicator for a bull run.

For a TA guy, this is one indicator that we are all wanting to see, I agree that it is no guarantee and not 100%. But let's remain optimistic and hope to see a good bounce since the market has been boring.

UP :)

It is a great topic on golden cross and death cross, thank you.

I also want to know your opinion on how to apply those crosses. You know in trading, volume is decisive factor no matter what indicator we are using. Therefore, with those crosses, how about minimum volume to apply 2 indicators. Apply technical indicators with too small volume can cause inaccurate analysis, technically.

I am sure that there is nothing wrong with bitcoin that has big volume in crypto but how about altcoins?