Bitcoin Forum

Hi guys,

What do you think of this?

The author of the stock to flow ratio says it's going to 100K.

In april he declared that this halving would show if his model was correct and seems to think so nowadays.

The model predicts bitcoin price according to the relation between the supply and the bitcoins being created.

Source: https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-now-perfectly-on-track-to-100k-says-stock-to-flow-creator (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-now-perfectly-on-track-to-100k-says-stock-to-flow-creator)

I don't know what to believe, with so many predictions, but this system has a clear logic behind it. I hope he is right, actually.

I've seen reasonable predictions of $60k-500k and to be honest, my own since about a year ago was at $300k...

Now I think we could definitely flash up to $120k at least, especially given how much the dollar has weakened in the past 6 months (against the euro) even with speculation debt in Europe will just be absorbed by the Northern eurozone countries to help the South - which has been rejected but may not be for long if it looks more attractive...

I think it will take another half a decade before Bitcoin goes on that $100k level.  At the current situation Bitcoin is somehow having a trouble of breaking the resistance on $12k but I believe it will break it eventually.  There are lots of factor to consider now since institution often times messes the uphill trend of Bitcoin.  Just what happen the other day when Bitcoin crashes by  $1.4k due to the liquidation of $1Billion worth of future contracts. (https://cointelegraph.com/news/1-billion-liquidated-as-bitcoin-price-crashes-by-14k-in-minutes)  

Anyway I think it will take another halving before we can "possibly" see the signs of BTC going to $100k.

It's a prediction so it can happen or it can't.

You've got to play your own target price and don't rely much with predictions because they are guesses. You can ride if it hits $100k but it's your decision to have the right path.

But like others, I'm also waiting for bitcoin to hit $100k but it doesn't disable us to sell at the other range lower than that.

Well I do think $100k is the big target for this market cycle. I feel like that has been clear for the past couple of years. That doesn't mean it is gonna reach $100k, it could stall out early if big whales start jumping ship early from being nervous, or if transaction fees get insane once it hits $50k or something. But generally I expect it to be $100k peak this market cycle, give or take $20k or $30k or so. I think it is unlikely to be much out of that range, like say peak at $40k or peak at $160k, those just seem way too small and way too big for the next cycle.

I think stock to flow model generally holds up, but just as a very vague predictor.

Basically a reasonable prediction is that in 2021 or 2022 Bitcoin will hit another peak likely mid-to-high 5 digits or very low 6 digits.

Good for us if this model will happen.
However, I think the market until now is still hard to predict but I always believe that $100k is not impossible to achieve in a short period of time.

As what we are all seeing now, the market is still bullish, anytime, another big push might result to a bitcoin price rally again, and honestly, I feel that this year the market would be bullish, and if we ever see a bull run, it would be very better compared to the last time.

Expert, self-proclaimed ones, known authors or whoever he was, at the end of the day, it is just prediction. As you said, it may or may not happen at all. It is good to see high numbers but you need to be realistic with numbers when it is time for you to seriously invest. Because the truth is, you are on your own. So you need to think of the possible outcomes of your decision so you will not regret those consequences.

What is this, the 5,000th time someone has predicted $100K? Anyone else getting tired of hearing about stock-to-flow? ::)


Sort of like $10K was in 2017? The market ripped right through it on the way to $20K.

That is my personal perspective also since we don't accurately know if those figures will come up and there's a little fear for me when bear market strike in year 2017 since I lost a huge amount for that events. That's why I always prefer to set a target on when to secure the profit since I always assure by now to gain and not to believe on any hypes brought.

If the price would really come to that prediction then it's really good for us since might we will go to another level of acceptance and bitcoin will gain a massive attention.

But since it didn't surpass the old ATH yet maybe those figures will remains as predictions that we never know on when it will came.

It is right. People can say anything about bitcoin price, and I will say that bitcoin will touch $100k-$200k, and we are free to tell our prediction to other people. The problem here is many people don't analyze or trying to get more information about what is going on with the market, and they just believe what other people say. If the prediction does not happen, people will blame that person, but actually, that will be on people's mistakes.

Right or wrong, we will see what will happen at the end of this year and next year, but before that happens, we need to prepare by saving more bitcoin, so when that happens, we are ready to sell bitcoin at the highest price. I am sure that bitcoin will increase so high and break the last ATH and make a new ATH. But we don't know what will happen in the future.

More bullish prediction makes this market bullish, so I am not against with that prediction although it's quite high.
With the market getting bullish, expect more prediction like this, maybe $100k is my maximum price prediction for short term, beyond that price, it's looks unrealistic anymore, but that's just me though, and I could be wrong, you know, bitcoin moves in a mysterious way, lol.

If we get $100k this year, crypto market will be all over the news again, after the last bull run and dump afterwards, lots of anti bitcoin experts criticize us and bitcoin itself, but they'll prove themselves wrong when bitcoin break a new ATH, especially when it pump to $100k.

This is just a model that can't be taken for granted. To my opinion it might pass a very long time until Bitcoin reaches that level, if ever this will happen at all. So, these are more nice issues than reallity that actually might happen. It's better to put expectations to more realistic framework.

agree, $100k is a long way from this point, if ever to be reached
first point on the road to $100k is to pass ATH, and that is a reasonable view from this point, could not tell the time-frame, but expect to happen in this halving cycle, probably with top in 2022

The model is very accepted and in fact I follow it, it is the only prediction model that I follow quite often because it is not an indicator, it is a model that has expiration, everything related to S2F is of great interest due to its fundamental level and technical. It is very likely that it will be fulfilled, not to say that it will already reach $ 100k, but in this market anything can happen and the good times should be taken advantage of, especially when you have those types of models to follow to improve the particular analysis .

Nothing will be impossible especially on Bitcoin, we even drop for almost 50% in just a span of 24-48 hours.
These kind of thoughts are also the same like what happened when Bitcoin is around 1$, 100$ and when it's already made it's current all-time-high which is around $19,000.

With any prediction whatsoever, I like to know when we could start taking profit irrespective of the height of price we think the it could reach?

If they are so sure of their prediction why not put their dick at stake like what McAfee has done with his 1 million dollar prediction, for me it's not a prediction anymore Bitcoin will eventually land in that level but  the biggest question is when and that what is why McAfee failed miserably he had it to soon.

I'm one of them...  :'(

I'm just amazed at how these people keep thinking that way and being bullish when seeing the market having an uptrend motion. It is likely they are living such unrealistic imagination which we know that it is really impossible. From $10k going straight to $100k...I can't sleep that if the market will surge that high.

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Anyway, I was not disclosing for Bullrun to come but we should also be realistic here. And I don't think we need to be more speculative but rather to understand the market position and sees the nearest possible scenario to happen.

For all we know this might just be coincidental and all and Bitcoin was really headed up in the first place but with the prices the volume not rising the same way as the price right now I don't think we can call this a real break out. I'm impress with how PlanB explained his S2F model but even if he explained it well and he made a convincing price prediction about Bitcoin the model itself has flaws in which is really hard for you to put your whole fortune on. The S2F simply doesn't put into consideration the external factors that could greatly affect Bitcoin's price from laws even the pandemic can affect it as well as the pending recession the whole world will have so really banking in a model where it doesn't include external factors is a hard thing to do.

i'd say that $100k is a good estimate for the minimum value for the next ATH in the current ongoing bull run that will probably end in mid 2021. but it is still the minimum not the best price that could be reached. if the past is any indication we should see at least $200k and if the exact repetition of previous couple of cycles happens then price should reach somewhere between $400k and $500k.

It is possible that in a certain future we will still see the bitcoin price of about a million dollars, but since today Bitcoin is becoming an increasingly attractive investment for a wider range of investors, including the emergence of institutional capital on the cryptocurrency market, this is indicates an increased demand for Bitcoin and a corresponding price that will only rise. Therefore, it is completely possible that the next historical maximum will be in the range from 50k to 100,000 dollars.

Probably anywhere between November and June, we should do a slow sideways up move to start and then we'll get a run off like we normally do.
Last time I traded based on a bounce of the first drop at $10k dunno what I'll do this time - thought I'd see how things go...

Do we really need these flow models to understand that the price would rise after halving, all these models can only predict a small data that is presented and you cannot accurately say anything. The market is looking good and if this continues we might see a huge rally by the end of this year and next year.

If you invested in bitcoin at the right time when the market went down, then you could make a good profit without much tension about the market going down.

Well, not every model is 100% correct, eventually you will realize that the more you spend time in the crypto world, some of them are correct whereas some of them are not that correct at all. So the question is, will this one be one of them that is correct and does actually end up happening, or is this one of them that doesn't make sense and end up being wrong.

I think there is a middle ground where it will not be too wrong and it will not be horrible, but it would go up and still be fine but not just that much. Just to give an example I think it will not be $100k, but it could definitely reach above $30k and under $50k, which is still going up a lot and that is why I think it will not be fully right but it wouldn't be fully wrong neither which is why I think it is quite possible to be half right in this model.

Max Keiser said 9 years ago Bitcoin will go to $100k. That was extremely bold prediction back then. Today it is totally obvious Bitcoin will reach $100k. IT is just a matter of time when that will happen.

Many have never imagined that Bitcoin could ever go $20k. But they were all wrong Bitcoin went to $20k in 2017. And yet there are some people who can't imagine that Bitcoin will ever go to $100k. But Bitcoin will go to $100k and then they will realize their mistake again. But Bitcoin will take time to go $100k, the market will decide when to go to this target. I am hopeful I will see that bitcoin reach this target.

The author is telling people about his analysis. He showed his flow model making it a good references to those speculators.

For the part of, you don't know what to believe, the analysis doesn't mean to actually give you hope. No one knows what will happen and always keep that in mind.

My advice, whatever good predictions you encounter - properly backed up and well-detailed, just try to focus on BTC accumulation. It will happen or not, you are sure you will have the advantage. As for me, I'm not into this $100,000 or above thing no matter how good the analysis, I always stick with the most realistic thing to happen. If it happened, then good, if not, then so be it.

^ Definitely right, that is impossible to happen this year but for sure that will happen but it just a matter of time, even though there is no time frame for that but surely from time to time bitcoin will gain mass adoption that makes the price pump up. We are all optimistic about the price prediction but I did not agree that $100k will reach at this year. Nevertheless, just always put in your mind that they are only guessing the market, the fact, the market is unpredictable.

Dont be easily deceived into these kind of call.Each one of us would really be just like average joe's that can make out their own prediction according to their own analysis but it doesnt mean that
it would be accurate no matter how expert you are on such field ex. finance, trading etc. .

This market is unpredictable and recent movement doesnt signify automatically that we would really be heading there into those prices that had been predicted or presumed out.

Why do people love to hit up that 100k price? I had been seen lots of threads or articles that someone is right and predicting that price can go beyond those prices which is totally BS.

They should at least consider on trying to target out or breaking the previous ATH first before anything else.

That's always gonna be the question, like everytime somebody drops a $100k prediction.
I must say, that figure is unrealistic prediction at this current time, but as time goes on Btc is bound to reach that figure. As we all notice, Bitcoin global adaption is still ongoing, and Bitcoin needs more popularity and volume to reach such number. Well, I can say that might happen on the next 4-5 years, and that's my prediction.

Halving was implemented as Bitcoin market inflation controller but that doesnt mean the price per bitcoin will be USD100K and I dont see any tangible reason which will make that happen. However, his prediction wont be right actually because he mathematically make those prediction.

And nothing to rely about his prediction as well.
I understand that we all have a freedom to make speculation with or without mathematical calculation, in fact, we all can right or (probably) wrong for a reason that we can exactly know what will happen next.

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ATH will come sooner but I'm not thinking as high as $50k. I should have to keep low as the market sentiment isn't that strong enough to the uplift the price into high. When will be the next Bullrun?

Bitcoin's price to $100k is possible.
The only question is that when this will happen.

Right now we are at the $11,000 price and its very far away from that price but still many are believing that it will be reached. I'm waiting for the parabolic movement of Bitcoin probably at the start of 2021. I'm not expecting for that movement to reach $100,000 immediately as this will take time I think before it will happen. Maybe 3-5 years is my prediction.

We will appreciate those high-price speculations if they come into reality.

But as for now, it's hard to say that they'll be happening and it's ok if you believe them but you have to have a plan for your own. Not very dependent with those predictions because we will never know how and when it will happen.

It's ok to think of it someday but let's face what we have in the current time.

you find it hard because we are still at the beginning of the rise and it is not a new thing you are feeling. every time we were in the same situation everyone felt exactly the same. for example back in 2015 when price was $200 to $300 if you told someone that price is going to reach $20k (the ATH) or even $10k (the current price) they wouldn't have believed you.

It is a prediction and they based it on the information they have so they arrive at that.

I don't mind reading their prediction but we have our different sides about it. Some would obviously sell while the price are not that low and I expect a lot of investors holders and users to do the same thing and then make another investment as the price go down

Another 10 years maybe? I think we would be seeing a good price this year. As I said in the past threads, it might stay at prices between $9K to $11K so we might be seeing another ATH next year or the other.

No, I'm not. I am aware that this is a prediction just like another and that it can fail, although probably some predictions will be right in the future.

Since McAfee "I will eat my dick" prediction, I don't blindly believe any prediction at all. Even McAfee claimed that his prediction had a mathematical model behind it.

Just for some context in the last market cycle the price beat the old ATH by a factor of about 17. The time before that, if you count the quick 6 month crash and bull run in 2013 it was a factor of about 5, though since that was very short you could say that first peak in 2013 was just part of the run-up, so if you count that market cycle as from 2011 to 2013 then we're talking a factor of 36 times higher than the previous ATH. And the cycles before that were shorter and gained a ton but back then Bitcoin was very small and easy to move exponentially with new interest. My point is, if it went up by a factor of 17 last time, and about double that the time before, it is very unlikely it is only going to hit a price with a factor of 1.5 to 2.5 the old peak this time. That would be a very small bull run for Bitcoin if it ended between $30k and $50k.

If we say the increase above the old ATH will again be cut in half that puts it at let's say an 8x gain (roughly half of the 17x gain last time), so $160k. I think that is a bit high, but I'd say 6x ($120k) is a reasonable top end estimate for the peak of the current cycle. If you also factor in the fact that once you start talking about Bitcoin getting up to like a 2 trillion dollar or higher market cap you need a decent amount of institutional investment, and I'm not sure that big money will be in Bitcoin in large enough amounts in just the next couple of years to get it that high just yet. So I'd adjust that 6x the old ATH down to maybe a 4x or 5x. Still, we're talking high 5 digits with it possibly hitting $100k, or about double what you have written here. That's just my analysis, but $50k seems to be a very low estimate for the next peak.

It's your own understanding that will move you to whatever position that you'll going to take.

It's a must to every traders to have their own research and decide
in whatever value they desire to sell or buy their assets.

Taking your stand and always keep yourself being updated to every trends that showing around this
market, that range is possible but it will take a huge investment to reached that amount.

Good point 👍
The ATH will be achieved but not very soon and the fact that we have freedom of speech doesnt mean we have to give crypto newbie investors false hope through our speculations just like McAfee does. However, if ATH happens the $100K price is not acceptable by me and people need to understand that people like McAfee, creator of Stock to Flow model which predicted the $100K only make their predictions to profit their own pocket.

Yeah, all due respect to S2F or S2Fx or whatever version it's called right now, I'm a bit tired of people asking me what I think about this guy. Hats off to him for getting Cointelegraph to constantly grind my gears with his news but surely he's got to know that the market needs to shake loose all them weak hands before it can do this magic liftoff, yeah?

And sending out seeds of hope like this, well, that's bringing in more weak hands into the picture;)

See, I can troll too.

This is not new there's one who predicted that it will reach $1 million or he will eat his dick, Bitcoin's price will eventually go up no doubt about it, but the time frame is the big debate, so many people have presented so many ideas or chart but we cannot predict the exact time and the exact price as long as it's going up and the profit is there I'm fine with it.

Very important to make a good research as always, and seems that you already learn things from that last famous McAfee prediction.

Nothing is certain from this market, there are always predictions that exist from time to time, different opinions coming from different people who so-called experts and educators.

Your money, your call so best to make sure that you are putting everything were your knowledge at.