Bitcoin Forum

No one can predict the future, but increasing global debt, slow economic growth and expanding central bank balance sheets have the potential to weaken the dollar and investors seek safe areas in assets like gold and Bitcoin.

In recent weeks, the price of Bitcoin appears to have been driven by one main factor, namely the weakening of the US dollar. This correlation is evident when comparing the US dollar index against Bitcoin.
The inverse correlation between Bitcoin and the US dollar is supported by technical analysis on the price chart. The Rekt Capital Twitter account supports the analysis, that Bitcoin has broken an important resistance level. Bitcoin price is unlikely to fall below that level, which is at the level of US $ 8 thousand.

In addition, Bitcoin was successfully closed at the weekly price above the US $ 11,400 resistance area.

US dollar losing its value is not something that happens over night, it is a slow process whereas bitcoin price went up about 30% in a short time. this particular rise has nothing to do with US dollar and its "weakening".
overall, there is definitely a connection but we will only see said effects over the long haul.

oh some random dude on twitter, so it must be correct /s

I don't see USD falling significantly in last few days against other fiats.  0.1-0.5% of changes are normal. The fall since last two days is lower than the rise in last Friday. It's normal forex market.
And Bitcoin has not only increased against dollar but also on all major currencies. For last 24 hours, bitcoin increased 1.75% for USD, 1.59% for GBP and 1.60% for euro.
What we can call is every fiat currency are falling and all of them are weakening against bitcoin.

https://i.imgur.com/qQrM3mu.png

I don't see any correlation :)

Now seriously, unlimited QE surely raises the price of bitcoin, because it lowers confidence in money and confidence in the safety of savings, but I doubt it have a short-term impingement in the price.

How the hell you can call it "one main factor" without comparing the rest of them? Don't blindly trust articles on the internet. Their methodology is flawed most of the times without adequate data or comparison to draw any reliable conclusion.

The price of bitcoin is rising now for many reasons, and one of them, and not the most important, is the weakening of the dollar.
Among the reasons for the rise in the price of bitcoin are, first of all, the expected consequences after the last halving of the remuneration to miners for each new mined block of bitcoin, as well as the projected onset of the most severe global economic crisis as a result of the adoption of unprecedented restrictive measures to combat the spread of coronavirus. Now the price of gold has also started to rise very actively, which confirms the assumption that people are looking for ways to protect their savings from the coming inflation of conventional currencies.

3 months ago,one dollar was selling for 1.79 Bulgarian leva,now 1 USD is selling for 1.66 BGN.
There's a significant fall of the USD price,even compared with a very small national currency like BGN.
I think that making comparisons between the USD and other major currencies like euro and British pound isn't showing the real decline of the USD,because the EUR and the British pound are going down as well.
Many investors hedged their USD reserves by buying BTC,so the Bitcoin price went up.

Whale manipulation will not be lost every time there is a surge of price in bitcoin based on the frequency and the consistency of spoof orders. We can't say that it was due to lower US dollar because the demand ans users of bitcoin comes from the whole world.

The dollar weakening has nothing to do with bitcoin rising up within just a few weeks.

The devaluation of dollar took years upon years of bad decision making and a series of bad luck among giant companies that make huge moves across the board. USD is not subject to hyperinflation similar to Venezuela and other countries which saw ATH on their currency against bitcoin. Likewise, the sudden rise in BTC/USD has nothing to do with USD being weaker day by day. It's more on the market and the current movements happening within it that made it possible for us to reach new heights these past few weeks.

The factors like global debt and a slow economic growth and on top of that the pandemic has put a lot of strain to the economy and you can be attributed that the rise in the price of BTCitcoin and other cryptocurrency market is due to these factors and no one can have a different debate as there is no concrete evidence on why all of a sudden huge investors are investing heavily in the market. You cannot call the cryptocurrency market a safe heaven and it is yet to prove that the market will sustain this growth if there is a global economic meltdown but these huge investors know that the market usually rises after every halving and they might be taking advantage of that common factor.

That's what I'm thinking, if bitcoin will continue to repeat itself  then those big fat bag-holders are just preparing, accumulating
every cheap coins inside the market, allowing traders to enjoy this small rise that they've building around. Whales knows how
the sentiments of the traders and once they are convince, this people behind can triggered and point the direction according
to their plans.

In regards to US Dollar value, there's no clear information that it is part on why bitcoin value are surging, there's no connections
aside from forex investors who might be starting to divert their money.

I agree with you. Being both currencies and having moments on a certain period does not really correlate these two.
Bitcoin and US Dollar may both be affected by the macroenvironment however, but changes and impacts would not be really the same.
Reliable sources should be presented first before we could make such assumption regarding their connection.

You can only attribute Bitcoin's growth to weakening of the US dollar if this weakening is easily observable to laymen, aka a hyperinflation scenario or just a real bad case of currency devaluation. You don't see it in the US, it has steady and predictable inflation. Bitcoin rapidly growth because it's just a new chapter of a speculative bubble like it was before many times already. Bitcoin can't be a real hedge for as long as it remains so speculative and volatile. Hedges are supposed to be predictable, Bitcoin is not.

Bitcoin was also up versus the Euro and other fiat currencies so it wasn't just the drop of the Dollar that affected the price.

EUR/USD current price is 1.18 up from 1.08 in May. In USD terms perhaps a small percentage of the rise was because of this reason. In total it was not, it was a mixture of rising interest in Bitcoin from institutions, Robinhood stock traders, and speculators. Also that MicroStrategy company from the dot-com era that claims to have bought $250 million into Bitcoin.

It seems that there is actual interest and perhaps hodling BTC is the best option for a few more years.

The dollar was strong in 2017 where the bitcoin grows and skyrocketed to $20k. Is there a direct effect of the dollar to the bitcoin, well we cannot totally say there is because the past situation is different from now but thinking in simpler ways, as dollar is weakening people will most likely to spend it rather than keeping it in low value and the fact that bitcoin is accessible people could easily look for it and buy it to store their value before it gets lower. Bitcoin have risen before even the dollar isn't weak, bitcoin's price has a core of speculation can't really tell directly.

I'm thinking the drop of dollar is not having that kind of effect to the increase in the price of bitcoin. I believe awareness is higher now than even in 2017. So we are going to see more of price surging because people started to invest in online business and they also diversify into bitcoin.

Bitcoin has been increasing for years without dollars weakening,  not until now but this ain't the factor why we are seeing bitcoin price increasing today. One main factor that I can consider why the bitcoin is increasing these days are the beginner engagements with crypto. Crypto has been a hot topic since the beginning of the year, there are lots of events pointing to cryptocurrency good or bad it still affects the crypto community just like the twitter incident that happened month, it creates a buzz and gets to be in the news again for publicity although it's kinda off but for some who understands and has an open mind they got attracted to it giving a boost to some exchange. The new user rate of some exchanges is increasing during this time of pandemic.

Weak dollar is a tail wind for sure but does mean we can drift off the road also.   Money from a weak currency can flow anywhere and it doesnt have to be BTC certainly not all at once and we already rose a fair bit.   I already rate 10k as a full price not attributable to any kind of negative outlook, fine long term.

We got a bit of a ceiling on the daily bars, its likely we reflect these longer term considerations at the moment.   Usually speculators get impatient and sell some along the way.  It could be said to be bullish with most of the low prices rising

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/AoGyZ.png

Bitcoin isn't as safe as Gold because of it's very volatile nature. I don't think a lot of people would divert their wealth and store it to Btc. This significant rise maybe due to crypto enthusiast storing their wealth before the devaluation of national currencies become even worse.
The USD isnt the only currency that was down today, and not only the people from the United States are the investors/users of Bitcoin. Therefore, there's no strong correlation between the weakening of USD to Btc.

When you're comparing two currencies, isn't the rise of one of them the definition of the other one weakening?  I'm no economist nor a currency trader, but that's been my understanding--please correct me if I'm wrong.

My take on why bitcoin is rising (along with precious metals and stocks) is that there's too much cheap money available to traders, and they're taking full advantage of it.  When interest rates are near zero, margin trading goes up and usually stock prices do as well--or any asset that you can buy using leverage, and that includes cryptocurrencies.  On top of all that, there's all of this "stimulus money" being handed out to people, and a lot of them are using it to speculate in various markets. 

No surprise then that assets which aren't usually correlated start moving upward in tandem, which is exactly what we're seeing right now.  One good thing is that bitcoin hasn't started moving into bubble territory, which makes me glad.  There's all this talk about hitting a new ATH, but I'm hoping that doesn't happen for a few years.

actually if you want to know whether or not value of a currency has fallen you shouldn't compare it with another currency (even though most of the times it could be correct). in this case for instance it doesn't matter if USD is worth more or less against some other fiat, what matters is its purchasing power. for example did the rents go up? did the groceries go up? did the utilities bill go up? etc. all of these are going up because USD is declining in value but as i said over the long haul not in short term and not big like by 30%, at least not at the moment.

Without the COVID-19 a few years ago, bitcoin was strong and US dollar was strong during that time. But it sums up to the speculation of most market watchers.
And don't you ignore that it's not all about US dollars weakening why bitcoin is rising this time.

I feel like dollar losing value played a big role but halving played another role in this increase as well which people forget nowadays. Just in may we have basically dropped almost a million dollars per day money right there on the table after the halving, you have to realize that this should have an effect on bitcoin as well. Obviously it can't have daily affect because daily changes are bigger than a million dollars a day, but lack of it totally combined after certain period of time does have an effect.

Obviously I am not saying that is the only thing, obviously printing of dollar in trillions has a much bigger impact on bitcoin however that doesn't mean that bitcoin could be increasing due to just one thing and one thing alone, it does change because of some other stuff as well, mainly halving for example.

Correlation is not causation.

We can look at this from another perspective. Pull up a chart of the NASDAQ index, XAUUSD (gold), and BTC. They are all strongly correlated since March, all in strong bull trends, and have broken above their yearly highs. In fact this correlation goes far beyond these three assets; risk assets are in bull markets almost across the board. And there is a good explanation for that: $6 trillion pumped into the economy through Fed QE and stimulus.

The DXY does historically have some negative correlation with stocks and gold. However, I think the current DXY weakness is rather due to the magnitude of the US's economic contraction and its poor response to COVID-19 pandemic, relative to other currencies in the basket. I don't think this has much effect (if any) on BTC.

I guess maybe the rise in bitcoin price is because of the Korean government removing the ban on people which was restricting them to deposit their korean money from the banks to bitcoin trading sites and exchanges. Although a lot of Korean people didn't know about the removal of this ban but maybe they are now becoming aware of it as the time passes by. Also the price increase can be dueled by various other factors like the unrest which is currently in America, inflation all around the globe which is causing the dollar value to fall so technically the bitcoin value should rise against a falling USD, the fed printing a lot of money for stimulus package and many other reasons can be included in the list as well

Maybe, could be the main reason ...!

However, we know that the economy is very closely related to the dollar, so far almost the entire world economy has deteriorated, but Bitcoin still has a positive impact, that's what makes many investors turn to Bitcoin at this time, so it's only natural that the Bitcoin price soared.

For other reasons, it can be said is, the increasing number of crypto users and miners today, with reason, it means that the interest of Bitcoin buyers is swelling, Of course, with a limited capacity of only 21 million, maximum, this can also spur current price movements.

It's obviously going up due to the self fulfilling prophecy of the halving it does it every single time because people with money know they can keep this pattern going and pump it after the halving.
They will keep doing this until the price gets to high to pump any longer.
I am skeptical of Tether and websites like bitmex having a lot of control over the price.
But I am just here to ride behind them on the tail of the wave

Bitcoin increases because lower fiat, you think dollar is the only thing that is getting affected right now? Do not get me wrong I understand the logic that bitcoin is calculated with dollar most commonly so dollar going down should be an important piece of information.

However when we are talking about why people buy bitcoin, most of the time it is to make more fiat, and people who live outside of USA also uses bitcoin for the same reason, which means that you should be a bit more careful about who goes in with what type of money and I feel like the whole world is going into bitcoin because fiat currencies are dropping down in value. Obviously it is not the number one priority here but it is definitely an important part of the puzzle that caused it to go up.

Why do we always associate the US dollar with the current increase in Bitcoin? There are many things to trigger the rise in Bitcoin value, it is not only about the US dollar. The lower value in the US dollar may have a role in the increase of Bitcoin but I don't think it has a big influence. The most thing to trigger the move in Bitcoin price is the demand on the market. People believe that will be a significant increase after the current halving, so they are probably trying to buy as long as the price is still at a lower rate.

You are correct, its not a simple relationship.   Theres alot of things that will throw people off that not appear like they would be correct, I keep hearing how they is a shortage of dollars on the global market because of the slowing to global GDP it means lower monetary velocity and less dollars circulate meaning there are deflationary effects in play not a simple linear inflation from greater total US dollars.   The problem is the production of dollars is uneven and unfairly credits a central authority, its ultimately not going to serve capitalism when its uneven in this way.   I do hope BTC succeeds by doing a better job and this is the ratio by which we see the price appreciate.

Of course, with a lot of demand in the market it can increase the price which continues to surge so the effect of the US dollar value is very little insignificant and what I know best is that the halving always makes or the market becomes a bull run where there are many extraordinary increases in coins and altcoins.
What is clear is not certain from all US dollars because investors have hoarded a lot of coins that they had held before the halving so that they know the market will turn green at a time like now I am sure the price of bitcoin will continue to increase over time.

It must have a little thing to do it with it but not the main factor of the rise.
There is so much other ways into why it would happen.
i.e. rich people looking for something new, stimulus check, its the normal run of bitcoin

I mean you cannot just put all the reason there. If it does goes strong again, does that mean bitcoin price will fall once again?

It is very unlikely to link the short term fluctuations of bitcoin to the long term weakening of the dollar, if anything we could link this to the long term upward trajectory of the price of bitcoin but nothing more.

I think that when it comes to this movement we are simply seeing factors that are exclusive to bitcoin and the market in general, the price was already in an upward trajectory before it crashed because of the pandemic concerns and since then it has increased once again, so it seems to me that this is the effect of the halving and the new enthusiasm the market is attracting due to the DeFi hype.

Don't know on what connection on dropping of dollar since bitcoin is global usage and anyone can accumulate it easily. And for what I see here is the reason of the pump is the continuous hype brought by the halving and also the slow pump happening many people though that bull run will follow since this is mostly what happen after halving take effect.

And yes for sure if demand will continuously go high the price will be stretch up also, hopefully we can see a new ATH by this year.

That kind of claim would require you to prove that the ones holding US dollars may it be a citizen or a forex trader is indeed shifting their money towards Bitcoin which isn't really evident. Even if we look at it chart wise or with technical analysis you will see that the daily traded volume for Bitcoin is in fact decreasing and even before that it was mediocre at best. So its really hard to prove that there was a correlation without any kind of data saying there was a huge influx of US dollar in an exchange just to buy Bitcoin.

Bitcoin rise because bitcoin is a very valuable currency, bitcoin itself without caring about any other currency including dollar should be going up because bitcoin is awesome and right now the only thing between the wealthy people and poor people that could level the playing field.

If you have bitcoin and hold it and not sell it, whales could buy and sell and try to make as much money as possible along the way but since you have bitcoin and not selling it the price will eventually go up and you will get richer as well, sure whales get richer with manipulation from the people they can convince or scare, but if you hold your hand strong they can't make you lose money unless they get baited to sell at low prices. Hence I think bitcoin goes up because bitcoin is a great weapon against wealth gap.

Bitcoin is always a valuable currency, from almost nothing to $12,000 now, that's the definition of valuable assets.
However, this coin does not only rise all the time, it has its bear and bull market and it's just that we are in the bull market right now, that $12,000 is a good price already, the market keeps bouncing every time it was dumped and that makes this year a good year for bitcoin so far.

So, is it due to USD struggling or the USA economy is? I also think so as we have investors from US who knows where their economy is heading, and they have already find a way to save their investments and that is flowing it to crypto especially on bitcoin.

That can be another reason why. As I have said before, it's not just all about US dollar and let's add that it's not just basically all about one single news.
It's a compilation of most things and events that affects the demand of bitcoin as usual. But more good news, means that we're seeing a lighter side which what we see today.

That is the problem when it comes to the internet. Some say good while the other says negative, we never know whos telling lie or saying right because they don't have enough data to prove that USD is losing its value or in the opposite.

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@OP, the rise of Bitcoin price and some altcoins is not because US dollar is weakening, no they are not because it never happens that simple. We have this price spike it is because there is an increase of crypto demand, people are investing crypto these days more than a thing that they invest in local stock market.

Right now bitcoin market is trading around $12,200 levels after testing up to $12,450 by failing to test the resistance levels around $12,500 to $12,600 levels. The intermediate resistance levels around $12k was broken with huge rally and I guess the current happening is short term correction and market may test $13k at any time soon. Hence, I must agree with your statements that bitcoin will unlikely to test $8k forever here after.


This might be due to weaken dollars. Bitcoin was able to manage to stay stronger around $11,800 levels for quite long time by last week which must have acted as launchpad toward next resistance levels. Now, bitcoin got back the faith among investors hence it will continue its rally regardless of how USD will be performing in coming days.

We have witnessed the last 2017 Bullrun but we don't hear about the declining sentiment of USD before. It is just like it happens today, we can't either to say that USD losing its value, no it is not. What I see this is that people are investing Bitcoin this time, quite different in the past days. Nothing it correlates with the low market demand for USD cos it never looks like that and it seems too far for a real happening.

The demand in the market is increasing and also many people have believed in bitcoin to be invested in the future or the rest in the long term, maybe because seeing the movement that is so significant that many people are complacent and want to start a business with bitcoin and other crypto, isn't this the beginning well where bitcoin has grown again on its own.

Bitcoin peaked over $12k again while economy is recovering in most nations as well, which shows you that it is not due to dollar lowering because while dollar was not lowering the price still increased, that is why I think it is important to notice why bitcoin is strong. When dollar loses its value bitcoin increases against dollar since fiat lost its value, however bitcoin still increases in value because dollar basically gains value but bitcoin gains even faster.

So, as you can see if bitcoin wants to go up, there is nothing that could stop it, dollar or economy or gold or stock market there is nothing that can stop bitcoin and it will go up if people want to buy it, if it goes down that means there is nothing that can stop bitcoin going down neither but hopefully that doesn't happen to frequently.

^ The deflation of the value of dollars is caused by documented information and current events which is caused by less amount of gold, investments and the circulating source, On the Other Hand, Bitcoin is Volatile Means there's no fortuneteller who can foretell the price on the next few days, unlike the value of the dollar that can be predicted by the means of sources.

Weakening of US dollar value is not contributing towards the bullish trend on bitcoin, it is just due to the people are moving to the assets from theor cash deposits and it is happening everywhere in the world.

I usually refer to the dollar index which is a range of central bank FIAT currency.   So a really common component of the dollar index value would be the Euro exchange rate and also Japan, two major trading partners of USA.     The thing where it gets spongy is Japan holds 1 trillion of US dollar treasury debt which means some value is lent to the dollar exchange rate and so the index.    This is true in general that because alot of debt is stored in dollar terms we dont know fully the true exchange rates, the theory being the debt system is not sustainable and dollar is liable to lose alot of value and so then all prices rise greatly.   It will mean extremely weak US Dollar, possibly a complete unwind of a global currency system in place since ww2 and a new paradigm.   
  I dont personally think crypto takes over though IMF has proposed some standard involving their own self made blockchain, thats not going to alter that BTC probably is alot more resilient during this period of weakness and many switch dollars to BTC and the price rises greatly.

Look for 24.95 on UUP which if we recover above and keep a low this week onwards is some possible turn around, UUP is a ETF for bullish Dollar

Lower in the price of dollars doesnt contributed to the surge in price of bitcoin cause US dollars have experienced some lower price before the pandemic and it does not impact any surge in price and what I believe lower price of USD impacted was the price of Gold.
Which I believe Buffet investment in gold is enough as an example.

Different people with different viewpoint.

People do really love on correlating things even if it isnt really that relevant nor does have any sense at all if we do consider on how the market behaves.Its totally unpredictable and

theres no sentiment or factors can really be precisely based of for it to become a reason on the current movement we are into.Lower US dollar value? Im not saying its irrelevant but

people shouldnt really easily believe on this kind of reasoning.Whatever the reason is, its still unknown to anybody but its good to look at these kind of numbers once again.

The entire fiat system is collapsing in front of our very eyes. This is only the beginning, bitcoin is the key to your financial security. Do not get left in the cold as a debt slave.

Or it's just organic supply and demand. How could we tell the difference? That's the problem with conspiracy theories about whales. They can't be proven one way or the other.


I am skeptical Bitmex has as much control over the price as people think. As for Tether, they and Bitfinex represent a massive chunk of the crypto economy in terms of volume and liquidity. Those will always be determining factors for price discovery.

Bitcoin is a reliable asset and has shown to at least make profit to every investor in 3 years irrespective of how high the price of the purchase was. THose time of bull run there was no pandemic and the value of dollar was good, I dont understand how the devalution of dollar at the this time made the different. DEFI wasn't responsible and ethereum wasnt relevant in the OP's opinion. The devaluation of dollar is for time and I believe things will get back after USA election, either Trump wins or lose

what if people use thier dollar to buy btc ?  but im not sure if dollars  value can lower that way because that how crypto work . when you spend your crypto the overall value of crypto decrease  but one thing is for sure and that is the btc value increase when people purchase it .  

we cant be sure with that because btc can also collapse as much as fiat do  but the collapse of fiat system give people an idea to invest on btc and other assets for security purpose .

You have to realize two things, first of all lets say that dollar going down could effect bitcoin, that is not really important but lets say that is true, would that also mean bitcoin would go down if dollar gains some strength?

Secondly and most importantly, bitcoin is something that goes up when people buy more bitcoin than they sell it, there is literally NOTHING else that would make it go up, this is not a company, this is not a stock or share, this is bitcoin and the price only changes depending on how people trade it and that's it.

This means if dollar gains value or loses value is irrelevant, if people see dollar losing value and comes to crypto that could be the situation but even there people sees dollar lose value but they do end up buying bitcoin which is the only thing that makes it go up.

The same thing applies to any investment asset, including stocks. Stocks have a limited number of shares issued so they are ruled by supply and demand, just the same as Bitcoin.


Personally I am skeptical of a concrete causal connection, but it's definitely possible. There is lots of capital tied up in dollar-denominated debt and bonds. As yields drop, it only makes sense that those investors exit for markets with better returns, meaning risk assets like stocks, BTC, and gold.

To me it is clear that both the US dollar and their economy is struggling, it seems the politicians think that they can print as many dollars as they want and that there are not going to be repercussions in the future, there are some countries that are already avoiding the US dollar on their transactions and instead they are exchanging their own currencies and if this tendency continues then the dominance of the US dollar is going to diminish weakening its economy in the process.

And when you add that the United States has been one of the countries that has been hit the hardest by the pandemic and that tens of million of people lost their jobs and that those jobs are probably not going to be recovered in a very long time then we can conclude the economy of the United States is going to be in trouble for some time.

Bitcoin falls/rises because of higher/lower "fiat" not just us dollar. I know that us dollar is actually what bitcoin is pegged on and there is really all the talks about how much bitcoin worths with dollar and we calculate the rises and falls like that.

However just because it is pegged to dollar when we are calculating or discussing doesn't mean that is the only thing it is affected by. When a third world country has a bad economy, the people there go into crypto as well to save their money too, that is really the only thing you can hope for and I believe there is really no reason to just think dollar is the only thing that affects it. So by all means us dollar do effect bitcoin but that doesn't mean that others do not, all fiats do end up effecting bitcoin and its price.

No, we might say that investors are losing their hands into the stock market and shifted to crypto investment. In fact, not only Bitcoin do the surge but also some altcoins.
Do we think that once US dollar value rises bitcoin value will dump? It certainly not a thing to expect with. It is only a coincidence that it looks like that, the market dumps while Bitcoin price keeps on rising but it is not a factor that wholely affects the trend.

It just happens that people are now realizing that Bitcoin investment is worth it this time while the pandemic isn't over yet. I'm sure, they'll soon come back investing local stock market once the crisis is done.

Yeah, I heard a several times ago that bitcoin's price movement was like SP 500 but it didn't happen anymore even if we compare with gold price movement bitcoin is more like it. So, we don't need to make the same between conventional asset who actually managed by one party and bitcoin.

But, you may be wrong when you say the investor will back to conventional investment if the economic situation back to normal. Because, as far as I know the intention for investor to store their money for investing is to get money and I'm sure bitcoin has given a lot of profit if they came when the economy crisis appear because bitcoin has risen for more than $6000 for three months back.

FED statement was yesterday and the take seems to be more weakness for dollar (https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/Ah01g.png), basically seems like it will lose this recent low and continue on trend to lose value.

https://www.ft.com/content/99e2d049-a585-4a64-b89f-f2f0bb482906


I guess thats helping BTC to continue in the long term in a positive gradient, its a macro measurement not a direction indication and imo we have already lost most of % dollar for this year but just the outlook being negative is enough to encourage speculators in Bitcoin and a variety of assets alternate to dollar and the ongoing QE program.

According to the official statements of Goldman Sachs Bank, the dollar will show a depreciation for a long time and this situation has a very positive effect on bitcoin, since the depreciation of fiat currencies forces a large number of investors to switch to the side of the cryptocurrency market. Of course, the value of the dollar can change in accordance with changes in many factors, which include real US rates, as well as the performance of the economy. But it seems to me that the dollar could strengthen significantly after the National Convention of the Republican Party, which was held on August 24. If, as a result of this event, the gap between Joe Biden and Donald Trump narrows, then the dollar will begin to strengthen.

It doesn't apply to stocks because stocks are based on companies and if people buy a ton of that stock that cause it to go up, there is a reason why it could be overvalued, if a stock worths 1 dollars but people buy like crazy and stock becomes 2 dollars, that means people are overvaluing it, or let's say it worths 2 dollars per stock and people undervalue it and sell it mostly and price of it becomes 1 dollar, that means it is undervalued.

Bitcoin is not based on anything at all, it is only people buying and selling and nothing else, literally absolutely nothing else, no companies, no corporations, no nations no fiat, it is purely based on people buying and selling and that is it. Which is why they are not even similar to each other at all, there are vast differences.

But so far those crises have hit countries that are not really that influential when it comes to the world economy and as such the price of bitcoin has a tendency to go higher in those countries because the supply of available bitcoin is very low, but it doesn't really have an effect on the global price of bitcoin.

For that we will need that one of the most powerful countries of the world suffers a massive crisis and that people migrate to bitcoin and quite honestly the only country in which I could see that scenario happening is in the United States, I say this because that is where there is a huge awareness about what is bitcoin, there are many investors there already and the government prints money as if there is no tomorrow.

Dollar will always lose value, that is what fiat currencies do, that is why we have bitcoin. To start off with dollar has always lost value in the most important regular stuff, your gallon of milk may not lost too much and it could be worth just a bit more than what it was 10 years ago, but check how much Harvard takes for studying there 10 years ago, 20 years ago and 30 years ago and you will see the difference, take a look at TV's and you will not see huge difference, even though technology is mind bogglingly better it is maybe x2 than what it was 10 years ago, or computers, yet check healthcare and you will see how it went up x10 just in the past 10 years, a cancer treatment could take up as much as half a million dollars.

So long story short, people increase your salary based on computer and milk and so forth and they ignore the college fee and health, they cherry pick.

That's what most people didn't see, no wonder even if we have a good salary but it's still not enough to live a comfortable life. I experienced that, I strive so hard to work, got promoted and get a better salary but at the end of the day, I'm still in debt. They say we should learn how to minimize our expenses and increase savings, but for me, this is not the life I like, its not financial freedom, what I want to see is an affordable basic needs and healthcare benefits is one of these now.

So IMO, saving alone is not good, invest more and save less, and I'm investing on crypto since 5 years more or less already.

What you are describing is the incredible power of inflation, most people never realize it and they just complain about a recent price increase in one of the products they buy but when you being to look at the increases on the prices over a time span that includes decades you begin to see how powerful that tax really is.

A very simple experiment that people can run on their minds is to try to remember the cost of a product from your childhood and now go to your nearest store and see the price of the same product now, if you have lived long enough it will not be rare to see the price of the product has doubled or even tripled during that time and yet people do not see this and refuse to acknowledge the fiat system is unfair to them.

Dollar could be seen in decline during July which I think helped the rise from those prices but since then dollar went sideways and BTC price has been positive to flat.   I think there is not much pressure from a higher dollar worth or boost from its move low so BTC for now is on its own.
  Momentum since the recent low has been quite solid, I relate this to the 50 day average now and how well we would pass this vs this shorter term 2 day momentum measure.
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/AhJWf.png

2 day average should fail as it only lasts day to day but more important for bullish action is keeping 10500 as a low and support vs price history resistance overhead.

This could have been a thing back in the day of high peak pandemic time but right now the whole world is used to it. I get that US dollar is very valuable all around the world but let's be honest they are not as strong as they used to be and pandemic and devaluing dollar will not make as much noise as people think it will make.

This is why I highly suggest people to take a look at the Euro side of things as well, it is still strong, not as strong as it used to be before pandemic but recovered a lot better and even with that bitcoin still went up recently. Plus to think that dollar devaluing makes bitcoin go up, that has to be mean that dollar gained value when bitcoin dropped as well but nowhere in any recent time dollar gained value yet bitcoin did went down a lot.

In fact, it is quite logical to bet on the euro, and not on the dollar, since the dollar depends on the US economy, and the euro depends on the entire European Union, where each country plays a very important role in this situation. But one must take into account the fact that the strength of the European Union has been falling lately, primarily for bureaucratic reasons. Moreover, on the world stage, some European countries are playing their own political game and are going in a different direction, which harms the entire European Union. Something like the fable of the Swan, Cancer and Pike. Perhaps it is in this situation that the European Union sees great potential in cryptocurrency and more actively allows it to be introduced into everyday life compared to the United States.

Whenever the price of dollar was lower ,we can able to see some huge rise in bitcoin price. People start to buy bitcoin equivalent to dollar, when the price back to old one. They will convert their bitcoin to usd again ands get more profit from it. Patience is a needed one to do transaction like this, it won't back to old price in short period.

Dollar has risen alongside BTC retraction but its not a larger amount as we have yet to regain the Dollar index pricing for July and prior.   So its more along the lines of speculative and profits being taken.   BTC itself is yet to really move past any special boundary, it could all just repeat till it moves more then this.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/Ahswc.png

So lets say if DXY can maintain a position above 25.10 it may just keep climbing, extra weight added from strong dollar could have a proper effect towards BTC sellers.

I think it is still too far to choose bitcoin as the main investment, gold is still preferable to bitcoin if that happens.
although bitcoin can avoid inflation and generate profits but its price is very volatile makes people still doubt it,gold still leads.

Have you see the gold price movement? Yeah you must see it before you make the opinion.

Based on daily time frame the gold chart has passed the 23% fibbonaci retracement after its price slumped down.

At this situation, there is no good for gold or bitcoin because both of them have the same price movement.

Also, the DXY chart pattern seem like will form the head and shoulder pattern maybe there is an affect for bitcoin will decrease again.

most people will choose what i say apart from higher liquidity, gold is more secure than bitcoin because bitcoin is still very volatile.
so if these two assets decline people will still side with gold.
i also love bitcoin but that can't deny the fact that gold is still more desirable than bitcoin.

I watch gold every day so right now it is suffering, its a long term asset not short term perfect protection and little people on the street will want something a little more liquid.   Its going to take a bit of skill to play gold and the spreads will kill most people jumping in and out of it.   Nothing wrong with mixing the two as they do different things and imo gold appreciates on a decade long stride.

So just observing dollar index today, its a slight fall but only within wednesday pricing which is minor.   I think we're probably more stable till monday even tuesday.
 

Maybe you are right because it takes a lot longer to generate than bitcoin, I'm also sure some young people want things fast and don't like to wait too long.
so both have their own advantages and disadvantages.
I really like bitcoin even though in fact gold is superior.

On the side of Bitcoin manipulation the market has been with it and will  continue with it. Basically the lower in the price if dollars the high the price of Bitcoin, though this has to be base on news. Basically OP analysis doesn't add up as he refused to compared both but in my opinion, Bitcoin rise is always tagged with news that are available at a particular time. Also, the purpose of Bitcoin existence was to Carter for inflation which the fiats has caused over the years.

Gold is still suffering less than silver. People who bought it could have done worse.

The real winners are always those who sell gold or silver like Peter Schiff and make money on small margins. For this reason buying into gold hype when markets were hit by covid news was a bad idea despite all the schilling Peter did at that time.

I think that the biggest factor is not the price of USD but the S&P500. If stocks go up this year Bitcoin will follow.

Gold is not good because of short or quick profits, it is not actually even for profits, it is there because when one nation loses its fiats value, other nations are still giving around the same value to gold, it is a global thing, so that nation that had devaluation will suddenly have gold so much more high. It is not a worldwide investment to make forever, it is a prevention of losing your wealth.

If you have all your investments in gold, your nation can suddenly become like Venezuela but since you have gold, you can go to USA or wherever and sell all your gold and still would be rich, nobody can stop you from doing that. This is why people call bitcoin digital gold as well, your nation can be good or bad but bitcoin is global so your nations movements wouldn't affect it.

There's no comparison of bitcoin with US dollars.
Bitcoin has their function and rules it won't deal with any other currency especially with US dollars.
It depends on the supply and demand, whenever people sell their coins in a panic the price of bitcoin falls.

I suppose that this is a different matter, because in reality Bitcoin is different from the dollar and does not need to be compared. But the fact is that the dollar is depreciating, because the American government prints a large amount of paper money and therefore the best asset for investment, as well as for the future storage of their savings, people will and are already buying Bitcoin. Of course, today the dollar exchange rate has stabilized and even showed small growth rates, but nevertheless, since the dollar is an international currency, according to statistics, paper dollar funds are not enough to provide the special countries of Asia and Africa, and we have to turn on the printing presses again. In addition, the pandemic forces to minimize losses in economic terms by increasing the money supply and another indicator that the dollar has already lost its unreliability.

Gold is a bit better not because price movements but because of volatility, gold may have some volatile days but mostly it is a dormant investment, and it is historically tied to value of fiat which means if the stock market goes down or fiat devalues gold prices will skyrocket. Look at bitcoin during the same time, it did moved WITH and not against them so it is not really that good of an investment.

Gold is great for bad days, if you think bad days are waiting for us ahead you should have gold, but bitcoin is good for good days, if you think future is brighter you should get bitcoin because it moves up faster than anything else. So, they are both the same but also very different, you should make that decision depending on what you believe will happen in the future.

What people have to understand is the fact that dollar will always continue to go down, it is not a currency that gains value over time, something you buy for 10 dollars now will be 20 dollars in a decade, it has always been like that and it will always be like that as well.

This means if you truly believe that bitcoin is something that goes up when dollar loses value, if you buy into bitcoin now, you will be at least double in a decade, what you can buy right now with 1 bitcoin will be the same thing you can buy in a decade as well, it will not lose value. Is this true? I don't know, sometimes it looks like it is true and sometimes it looks like it is wrong but at the same time we can't make you make your decision for you, you have to decide if it is like that or not and invest accordingly.

The price of currency or asset will change based on the market.Dollar is not a exception to that economy factor.Now the world economy was collapsed and no where the huge amount of dollar is needed to do a international trade.It was main cause of this fall.The price of dollar also impact the price of bitcoin and Ethereum.

Bitcoin is not exception in taking advantage of market force. We can see that even gold too is gaining. Usd is a major currency and whenever is down we should expect other coins or money to gain. We are at time were we should be able to really see what bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are developed for and that is as a safe haven.

Price is currently $10,890!
Maybe this is a day we rise above $11,000 again, it’s been a while. Perhaps we see a bullish breakout, I hope so.

Pretty bullish break from negative trend yep, BTC gaining on paypal news also a fair trend.    Dollar index is towards the lower range but not especially different to previous pricing, if anything its tried to rise and resolved towards bottom range recently.

Chart I was looking at that for some difference was YEN vs Dollar which matters in terms of investment sentiment and makes up part of the dollar index.   Japan also holds 1 trillion US treasury debt if they werent already important for trade reasons.
https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/AcO6D.png
March 9th peak price here and today YEN did rise quite a bit with dollar index is down on that same day, previous high in September they rose together.   The rough take on this chart is a general trend up for YEN but todays high does not exceed September so its still debatable.

https://www.fxstreet.com/news/usd-jpy-yens-slow-grind-stronger-is-set-to-continue-mufg-202010201636