Bitcoin Forum

At this point the market cap of Bitcoin is around $384 billion and Gold's 9 trillion. Assuming that Gold's will double, try to imagine Bitcoin value.
Posted by Morgan Creek co-founder on Twitter personal page as a proof for the future of his actual beliefs regarding Bitcoin potential:

"Bitcoin’s market cap will surpass gold’s market cap by Dec 31, 2029.

Posting this as a receipt for the future."

Do you think it is a right and robust statement to say? How do we will approach Bitcoin blockchain after 10 years?

It's honestly hard to predict and at this point in time, there really isn't any indication that the value of Bitcoin to grow in a factor of 40. I find it hard to believe that Bitcoin would be that valuable without the majority adopting Bitcoin and government supporting it. Even so, a value that high would still be difficult to reach.

Hope that it would eventually happen but it's hard to imagine it happening.

I think that can't be said to be "true", after all it just predicts the current state of the market cap for bitcoin's future. rather than we are busy with predictions that are not yet clear, we better focus on the development of the bitcoin blockchain and build more communities so that more countries will accept the existence of bitcoin well and get mass adoption soon.

It really is my passion, Bitcoin and gold, for me they are the most active that represent the most money in the world and have a large market capitalization. As time goes by, people will know more about bitcoin and by pure logic the market capitalization will increase ... It is very likely that it will exceed the market capitalization of gold, Bitcoin with the passage of time they will see it more and more legitimate .

A reminder: regardless how realistic or unrealistic these "predictions" are, these big name people are posting these sort of predictions for publicity; obviously to gain more users and exposure to their business/platforms. It's pretty much the same with every outrageous "predictions" out there.

I believe most people on Jan 2009 – Mar 2010 also said "it's impossible if Bitcoin will reach $100, $1000, $10,000 and so on". Because on Jan 2009 – Mar 2010 the price of Bitcoin is basically nothing [1] , but after 10 years the price is $11,775 right now. It already show how valuable and powerful Bitcoin is.

Nothing is impossible, Bitcoin only need more mass adoption to exceed Gold. Even its not on the next decade, maybe in the future...

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[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_bitcoin

nope.

we have under 19 million mined
and we have under 12k price

last i looked 19 mill x. 12k is about.

228 billion not 384 billion.

so you are wrong.


now do i think the 228 billion will grow to 9 trillion in under 9 years.

a 39x increase  has happened so it could.

But I suspect if it does move to 9 trillion that gold will grow to at least 18 trill. in the same time frame.

For this to happen, Bitcoin would need to multiple by at least 2300%, when you consider newly mined coins which would increase the supply, that percent would be much lower. While this is within the realms of reason especially looking back at the last ten years, it's pretty much a wide guess and I consider such price predictions unnecessary, 1 BTC would m be 1BTC in 2029, and that's the value that really matters.
Twitter is not the ideal platform to learn about bitcoin, educative profiles are few and far between with majority of the crypto tweets there being shills (focused only on the USD and gold value), with little or no content about the technology behind Bitcoin.

There's a pretty good chance it'll happen earlier.
However, the future cannot be predicted, so any prediction made about what'll happen in 10 years is pointless and has 0 value.

This has already been said severally by ROBERT KIYOSAKI and also logically explained by Warren Buffet's recent move of buying several digital asset and moving out of stocks and shares from bank. When big wigs in wall street start buying crypto, it only tells you that the even gold will soon second bitcoin as their market cap will switch positions in i the shortest of time to come.

No I guess in such a short time frame, the growth of bitcoin in its first decade was huge and no one expected things but now bitcoin also got attention and lot of people speculating with it so reaching such a huge value is not going to be easy as in 10 years frame but if this happens I would be extremely happy.

That predictions remains a prediction. A 10 years time frame, no one would actually remember that when the time comes, with a lot of predictions going on in the social media. These famous people are just making some noise to attract attention for their own interests in this business field.
Atm, Gold seems invincible when it comes to marketcap, but yeah everything is possible who knows Bitcoin will dominate the marketcap, but 10 years? I doubt that.

This had been the recent news now in different news channel like the South African channel, and also booming on twitter on this comparative analysis Bitcoin and Gold. There are many factors that bitcoin usage could be avoided and considered first before volume surpasses gold in near future.
[1]. Government regulations.
[2]. Ponzi Scheme retrieval and reduction.
[3]. Vast popularity and promotion/adoption.
       And others..
If these factors above could be handled correctly, then bitcoin volume could hit closer to gold gradually in the future.

Exactly right, but I saw the potential on it. If we look back before 10 years ago we have see a huge improvement of bitcoin and let us consider that after this 10 years it will the same happen to the bitcoin price. A 10 years time frame of bitcoin prediction is too much to surpass the gold and I think that goal will I guess easily to reach.

Look at the dominance of bitcoin year by year, showing the chart continuously rising up is enough evidence that there are chances price of bitcoin will rise up soon.

That would require Bitcoin to reach ~300k. Is that possible? If you judge from past performance, yes. We've seen such rates of growth in the past. Is this enough evidence that it will happen? No, because past performance doesn't guarantee the future performance.

Even then, while Bitcoin can reach $300,000 for a brief moment, sustaining it is much harder. We have reached $20,000 once and now we still can't retake it. If Bitcoin will ever outgrow gold's marketcap, it will take much more than a decade to do so.

Robust? A prediction is never robust imo, and never would be. The only way a prediction could actually be solid is if you were from in the future and came back to say that, yes, that would happen. Right statement? No one really knows. There really isn't any right or wrong in predicting anyway, the answer would only be revealed once the situation is over. I'd rather say that I'd want more situations of Bitcoin to actually revolve in adoption, and possibly coordination or at least, acceptance from the respective Government agencies. Especially with how the supply will only go lower for the next decade.

Even if we do say that history repeats itself, the notion of Bitcoin defeating Gold in under 2 decades? Seems quite difficult, or impossible imo. I'm not being doubtful, I'm just looking at it realistically. Even if we do say that Bitcoin is very popular right now, can it sustain it for the next decade? Adding on to that, can even more people join in on the adoption of it? There's a lot of questions involved, so yeah, I really doubt you should trust predictions for over a decade that much.

It's a decade so that's safe to assume with that market cap. Bitcoin's price is quickly increasing so there's a big possibility that it can happen on that prediction. Remember that bitcoin is a speculative asset so those speculations that have realistic claims can come into reality.

The digital age is where we at right now and a lot of investors looking for alternative investments that can easily be understood by them. Bitcoin is the perfect asset for them and it's not that hard to understand which can make the demand and market cap higher any time soon.

This is just another one of the "Bitcoin price will hit 1M USD after 30 years" type of predictions.
I don't believe that Bitcoin will ever surpass the Gold market cap.The governments are still pretty negative or neutral towards Bitcoin.Gold,on the other hand,has been a central bank reserve asset since the creation of central banks and fractional reserve banking,so all the governments will always see Gold as a more valuable asset than Bitcoin.
10 years is a pretty long time frame in the high tech world.Everything can change by 2029.Bitcoin might dominate the world,or it might disappear.

Absolutely possible. Someone posted an interesting graphic on Reddit, https://ibb.co/TT250Nr  if you want to check it out. I think we need more clear and easy to understand comparisons so people could understand faster how BTC is working and what size it already has

I am fascinated by how much people are obsessed with gold, as if there is still a gold rush that drives people crazy. Comparing gold and Bitcoin in my opinion makes very little or no sense at all, because these are two completely different things, each with its own purpose and application.

Although most perceive it only as a store of value and for making jewelry, its application is much greater than that -> https://geology.com/minerals/gold/uses-of-gold.shtml

Bitcoin, on the other hand, is a digital cryptocurrency that can also serve as a store of value. In addition, can we use Bitcoin in jewelry making, electronics, dentistry, medical, aerospace and many more areas? Of course not, so the price of gold is the result of the total application of this metal, and the price of Bitcoin is the result of its current application, ie supply and demand.

In the next 9 or 10 years, Bitcoin will succeed or fail in its positioning on the world market - this was predicted by Satoshi himself in one of his statements. Trillions of dollars or euros can certainly find their way to Bitcoin, and then anything is possible - so who among us believed in early 2017 that a growth of almost 20 times could happen? Today, some people think that $100k is science fiction - and in fact it's all just a matter of investor confidence in digital gold (Bitcoin).

Actually it makes sense because both share one property: scarcity.
And since scarcity makes something more and more valuable over time, people will clearly be obsessed by gold and Bitcoin.

Gold price has smaller daily variations and steadier growth, Bitcoin is newer, has huge price fluctuations and also seems to offer overall better gains over years (of course, the ones caught by 2017 FOMO rush will not agree) for the ones with strong hands (and hearth!).

I'm not sure Bitcoin's limit will exceed that of gold. As more and more gold is mined and we don't know how much gold there is in the world, bitcoin has its limits. Bitcoin is highly manipulated, and only when countries consider storing Bitcoin in asset portfolios do I consider Bitcoin's capitalization passable with gold.

This is something that makes sense, but we still know that the total amount of Bitcoin cannot be more than 21 million, while gold is something that cannot be determined in that sense, and its quantities are actually unlimited, especially if we take into account that in the future its exploitation will go beyond the of the planet Earth. This will not happen tomorrow or in 10 years, but in 50 years the news could reach the Earth that a huge amount of gold has been discovered near Olympus Mons on Mars (https://www.forbes.com/sites/jillianscudder/2015/10/04/astroquizzical-is-there-gold-on-mars/).

I am sure that people will continue to search for gold in the distant future, but I also know that in the next 10 years 99% of all Bitcoin will be mined and that this is something in which gold and Bitcoin differ the most - limited mining time.

Making a prediction that is 10 years in the future is certainly doing a good bit of guessing and using conjecture so I'm not sure how much stock I would actually put in to this.  Also keep in mind Gold has been around and used as a currency for centuries.  Gold is also used in every day life for more than just a transfer of funds, or jewelry but also in things such as machine equipment or TV cables.. bitcoin does not have these properties which hurts this argument a bit imo.

Yeah right, there are more gold that being mined from time to time and the actual numbers still undertrained
there are many places that potentially have this minerals.
Unlike BTC where numbers are limited from how it's been designed, so we can't accurately say that it will exceed
gold in the future.



If that's a possibilities then there's  really chance that it might passed gold depends from how people will embrace
the system in the next decades.

And silver too, a lot of people I know in communities online actually actively buy gold and silver (along with Bitcoin). I sort of get it in a way, I guess they are just diversifying but I actually don't really feel safe if I bought gold or anyone knew that I did. Gold being at ATH every 10 to 15 years also makes people just love it. Pure store of value but people don't realize how hard it is to liquidate if they wanted.

The statement is his own belief and perception towards bitcoin achievement. Actually it is possible to happen taking the bitcoin structure and gold in comparison. I think community prefer massive adoption will come on bitcoin technology. There are still users who are not acquainted well on blockchain and few years from now the number will decrease and will continue to increase new people on using these innovative creation. That includes cash flow that will enter the market that will serve as way to exceeding gold market.

Gold has lots of use cases, right. But the current gold price is driven mostly by speculation.

I read some time ago (unfortunately, I've not preserved the link, but you can find similar opinions like this Bloomberg article (https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-01/gold-is-losing-its-luster-for-the-world-s-central-banks)) that gold would be worth only a fraction of its current price if it wasn't for Central Banks hoarding it. If Central Banks begun to sell a significant part of their gold, the price would plummet, because the demand for industrial use would not be enough to sustain anything near the current price.

I think gold is mostly valued by its tradition as "something valuable", which goes back to Antiquity, and its psychological value because of its association to jewelry. Scarcity alone cannot explain its price.

As a practical means of "value", mainly if you also want to move it, it is not very convenient. Here Bitcoin works much better. Bitcoin has many advantages compared to gold when it comes to usability for payments or even for moving parts of your wealth.

For these reasons, I think Bitcoin can surpass gold's "market cap". However, I think gold's market cap has some likelihood to shrink considerably, so a $100,000 Bitcoin could be enough to surpass gold's market cap in the future.

Lol, I really don't think that Bitcoin is going to exceed the market cap of gold any time soon. Bear in mind that gold has already more than doubled in value in the last decade, so it would probably do so again to achieve a market cap of $16 trillion by 2030.

At its current market cap of over $200 billion, BTC would need to multiply in value by 80x to reach a $16 trillion market cap. At that market cap it would be 10x higher than the M0 supply of the US dollar....

Do you really think Bitcoin is going to be 10x bigger than the US dollar in ten years? Come on now. Let's have reasonable expectations.

5-10x growth is reasonable given its current size, 80x probably isn't.

I underline this word "Bitcoin's market cap will surpass gold's market cap by Dec 31, 2029" so it looks like bitcoin will have an increase in supply or will just increase the price without increasing supply ??
because if bitcoin adds to the supply, I think the bitcoin price will be low. everyone will easily get bitcoin and bitcoin is not a superior coin anymore

dont forget the importance of gold in electronics and computers. so we dont have bitcoin if theres no computer, right? so don't underestimate the value of gold as bitcoin can't replace its actual use in various industries. bitcoin may surpass the market cap of gold but it cant replace the different uses of gold in many industries. unless, someone will discover or create a new material in replacement of gold.

Well, I actually wrote about that. :) Industrial demand is simply not enough to sustain the current price.

According to estimations by Statista (https://www.statista.com/statistics/299609/gold-demand-by-industry-sector-share/), about 7% of the world's gold is needed for industrial usage. This includes gold in dental prothesis, but excludes jewelry. Jewelry is by far the biggest gold consumer and uses 48% of the world's reserves. 30% are used for "investment purposes". 15% is owned by Central Banks.

While you could argue jewelry is also an "industrial usage", most people use gold jewelry as a collectible which should preserve its value. In the case of a gold crash, some of the owners of this gold could panic too and send the price down even further.

It's also worth noting that Central Banks, in 1999, had to agree to limit gold sales (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Washington_Agreement_on_Gold) to sustain its price. Without that agreement, gold price would be very likely much lower today.

So I see gold as a pretty unsafe asset, more with the current bubblish gold prices. Bitcoin has, in my opinion, a far better outlook.

There are many things that can or will happen before and after 10 years. But in my views, I am very positive that bitcoin can surpass the market cap of Gold with that amount of time.

Specially if gold will remain stagnant or it's progress will be very slow. Bitcoin is capable in multiplying it's value as years passes by and the investors of bitcoin are also increasing every now and then. This will be the best card for bitcoin to overtake gold ten years from now.

Everyone is free to predict about the future of Bitcoin, which Morgan Creek says could happen in the future of Bitcoin
market capitalization will be above Gold market capitalization. But it can be achieved if several conditions are met, such
as most countries in the world the government provides support for Bitcoin. If this has not happened then the Bitcoin
market cap prediction can pass Gold market cap will be difficult to materialize.

I don't find gold to be attractive at all. It sure is pretty and I have a wedding ring made of it, but that's all. I'm not going to collect gold bars or anything like that. Gold is the metal our grandparents were obsessed with as the only safe haven for money, but it was understandable since they lived in the era of the great wars.
Bitcoin has a chance to overtake gold but for that the current gold bugs have to disappear, which will not take long as most of them are in their 60s.

Lets have a reality check, assuming the stats given by you about the doubling of the market cap of gold in next decade then it will be 18 Trillion dollars and assuming all 21 million bitcoins are mined in the next decade, then also the price of bitcoin should be at least  $857,142.857143, which is harder to achieve than it seems written down, this is almost 71x of the current price(assuming it to be $12k). I guess, bitcoin can't equal the market cap of gold in the next decade and it will take lot more time than that to beat gold in market cap, but we should always have our hopes high regarding the investment in which we have invested and never be tempted to sell our coins after witnessing a mere 2x on the initial investment.

Of course, all precious metals are very interesting to investors, silver is something that people buy the most before gold. What has always deterred me from buying precious metals is the possibility of buying fake gold, and the fact is that there is a lot of it on the market - and when someone manages to put 83 tons of fake gold (https://decrypt.co/34033/chinese-firm-dumps-83-tonnes-of-fake-gold-on-the-market) on the market, everyone should ask themselves what they are buying or have already bought.

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Yes, that's right - gold is valuable because it is bought by central banks as a kind of insurance - but I don't think that value system will be so easy to break, because if we take the gold that EU state members have as an example - then the example that appeared in Italy some time ago it was obvious that the European Central Bank had the main say in selling gold - so even if you have gold you can't do with it what you want.

Perhaps the real question is whether central banks will at some point take Bitcoin as a form of digital gold, and if that were to happen then gold would likely lose part of its total value.

It is a wrong comparison because good supply can be increased when technology evolves more and companies expand their production activities to more remote areas on the planet. We don't know how many gold will be produced in total. In contrast, we all know the total supply of Bitcoin, and what almost lost from inactive UTXO after many years.

More supply for gold, more total market cap for gold, at same price. In contrast, Bitcoin market cap will only increase if its price increase.

There could be a possibility that Bitcoin can surpass Gold's market cap if you will be basing on pure calculations but that is not how things will work for we cannot foresee what can happen in the future and we cannot duly predict the possibility of the growth of Bitcoin to be smooth for we all know that Bitcoin have been into many struggling situation and always make a comeback but still there is no pure assurance that thing will always go work. Considering the other external factors that may affect the market caps of both Bitcoin and Gold, time will only tell what can literally happen if there could be a big possibility that Bitcoin can surpass Gold or it will remain the other way around. As of now, we cannot duly see what can happen. Let us just all see when the time comes at year 2029 based on the OP that is according to Morgan Creek which is a wild prediction based on calculations for now.

We are crypto enthusiast, we don't limit the success of bitcoin, so for me, I believe it's possible.

If it will not happen 10 years from now, then we can wait for the next 10 years as long as bitcoin still has a continuing demand and massive adoption is happening. This kind of prediction is quite aggressive, but I would not say it's impossible as it's hard to predict crypto, but one thing we have to do is just to ensure we are all optimistic all the time.

Bitcoin has a capitalization surpassing gold is unpredictable. It is also based on the political-economic situation and the policy of accepting bitcoin from major economies and countries. Gold has more applications than bitcoin, gold is used for jewelry, used in engineering machines. Gold is stored by governments as a backup asset. Gold is in the people and is kept carefully.
Bitcoin is too new for a market cap to surpass gold. It may take 30-100 years.

Nobody can predict the future of Bitcoin, even Satoshi Nakamoto as a Bitcoin creator would not think Bitcoin could reached
an all time high of up to $ 19,000. So I believe the Bitcoin market cap can exceed Gold, we just need to be patient. As long
as the demand for Bitcoin increases, one day it can be reached the Bitcoin market cap will pass through Gold.

That's a very optimistic projection that Pompliano explained to Cointelegraph after posting it in a tweet. He argues that due to the rapid growth in the value of Bitcoin by 2029 the capital market for bitcoin will be bigger than gold.

IMO, anything is possible as long as the community continues to support it, we will come to those predictions.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/pomp-thinks-btcs-market-cap-will-exceed-golds-in-less-than-a-decade (https://cointelegraph.com/news/pomp-thinks-btcs-market-cap-will-exceed-golds-in-less-than-a-decade)

I wonder how far many people's optimism about bitcoin goes, just looking at the current difference and applications of gold and bitcoin we can see that the market capitalization of bitcoin will not exceed the capitalization of the gold market. See how many people buy gold to make necklaces and show off on social media, other millionaires buy gold to keep in the coffers ... there are dozens of things people do with gold, but in the case of bitcoin people will buy bitcoin to make Hodl and use it as a means of payment if the volatility is not very high and that will not attract thousands of people around the world as gold does


people will forget about it in a few months


this is just another illusion that we see every time the price increases.

I believe that can't be supposed to be "valid", all things considered, it just predicts the present status of the market cap for bitcoin's future. instead of we are occupied with expectations that are not yet clear, we better spotlight on the improvement of the bitcoin blockchain and fabricate more networks so more nations will acknowledge the presence of bitcoin well and get mass reception soon.

If the full potential of bitcoin is unleached and it became a recognised currency then the price can go up much and bitcoin will be as valuable as gold but its hard to do because the world system will not allow such big transactions out of their hands because bitcoin is decentralised and if they can not control all that money then i believe they will not allow btc to be an official currency.

With the strong growth of the crypto and internet markets, it is possible Bitcoin will soon reach a greater value level, but to overtake gold may take longer. Gold has existed for thousands of years since ancient times and it will continue to be trusted by people for its value as a store of value, as jewelry and in science. Bitcoin is so new, it is like an initiative to initiate the technology revolution as well as money. It is too early to conclude anything about Bitcoin. If governments officially put bitcoin in the national monetary reserve, I can reconsider that Bitcoin can become an asset that surpasses the capitalization of Gold.

It is very clear that Bitcoin is very valuable, have great potentials and its value grows all the time, but looking at Gold, it is an asset that has been from time immemorial, its value grows all the time, countries stores it, companies stores it all because of its value. What I am pointing out is, Bitcoin will have it tough overtaking Gold; another limiting factor of Bitcoin, is its high volatility which is very low in the aspect of Gold. So in my own opinion, it is not a robust statement to say, because countries are still finding it hard to adopt Bitcoin because they can't control it while most people are still skeptical about it because of its volatility (although this will change with time) but same cannot be said of Gold.