Bitcoin Forum

I was reading Powell (chairman of the FED) statement on US economy, and he’s used the words like starts and stops for the economy, and for a second I started to wonder did I just open an F1 news report?.

It’s pertinent to focus on his words which clearly mean that we may see some positive movements in the economy, but along with it we should brace ourselves for negative side effects too which shall last way longer than we all had initially hoped for.

Further there’s more bad news for the jobless people as he’s claimed that they’ll not be able to land jobs, and thus they will continue to remain jobless in the long run.

This analysis is a big blow to Trump who’s been banking on economic revival to win the elections, and this will even pose a big challenge for Biden (if he wins the elections) because reviving an economy won’t be that easy, and if he fails to revive it then Democrats will badly lose the next elections.

Sources:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/powell-says-us-economy-will-continue-to-recover-with-stops-and-starts-2020-08-27

https://www.adn.com/nation-world/2020/06/04/trump-banks-on-the-economy-and-his-reelection-prospects-rebounding-quickly-without-more-government-help/

The U.S. election is in November, that's about three months to go, there is no way Trumps government can revive the economy in such a short period of time, he's reelection or not will depend on what he's done in the last four years and not this remaining three months before the polls (even if it's possible he revives the economy). Trump has made quite a lot of bad decisions as well as statements he failed to keep to, it's up to the voters now.

Powell didn't choose the wrong words there imo, there is no definite direction for the U.S economy atm, of course the government will do everything possible to get things back on track and to get the jobless working again, but it will take time for this to happen, they have been forced to print more money already this period, a move that could also affect the economy later on. It is what it is and the economy is bound to recover slowly.

Realistic assessment, and what I've been expecting for a while. Stagnant job growth, a continued transition from full-time employment to 1099 workers where there is growth, and associated rising levels of medically uninsured.......all while the stock market goes to the moon.

Man, I'm hoping that's not going to be the case, because the unemployment "crisis" that happened after 2008/09 was awful, and I can still remember it vividly.  And he's right about the longer-term consequences of the COVID-19 lockdown.  Corporations' upcoming quarterly reports for the next year at least are not likely to be looking too rosy.  It's amazing to me that the stock market is still flying high--though I realize that's probably the result of low interest rates and stimulus/unemployment money.  That can't last forever, though.

Fuck Trump and the blow to him.  May it blow that fucking orange wig all the way down Pennsylvania Ave NW on its way to getting stuck in a cherry blossom tree.

Oh hell no, he won't be able to do anything in that time frame--but no doubt he'll tell the voters all the things he's going to do (but never will) in his re-election campaign.  

Why not? The Fed can buy up the entire corporate bond market. They can keep any zombie corporate solvent indefinitely. And they've shown their willingness to do just that.

Combined with the incredibly low yields on bonds and treasuries now, there is zero incentive to exit stock the stock market for safe haven markets, and there are strong returns-based incentives to stay in the market.

I can't find it now but I saw an investor poll recently that said investors were significantly more concerned about Fed policy than economic outlook or stock fundamentals. And in my opinion, that's what is being reflected in the charts. From a TA perspective, the stock market (especially the NASDAQ and S&P 500) looks really bullish. That shows the real underlying supply and demand, and that's what really matters, not company fundamentals.

Every leaders of every economy will continue to express massive optimism even in the face of defeats here and there. My country of residence is at the brink of isolated recession but still, the representatives of the economy are still very much hopeful that the economy is improving and on the path of recovery. The annoying part is when they want to talk about the negative, they would then make comparison with another economy experiencing worse scenario just to still paint the picture that they are doing well. Apparently, that is the one of the core reasons why they are appointed to manage the country's purse.

What is up with these threads related to the US economy these days? The entire world is suffering thanks to COVID-19 people(Not just the USA) and all world economies are under a huge amount of stress, but they will eventually recover with time.

Coming to the presidential elections, Biden needs to be elected to power in my opinion. If Trump gets re-elected, no words could describe the abnormal thinking of the voters who voted him to power.

Jerome Powell is the chairman of FED.Talking positive BS and being optimistic about the US economy is his main job.If he says something negative or pessimistic about the US economy,Wall Street will go red again.
Trump will lose the elections for sure.It doesn't matter what Jerome Powell says.Thinking that the FED chairman will somehow boost Trump's popularity is pretty naive.

Gov is ready to save companies from bankruptcy but what did it cost? Tons of newly printed money and increased inflation rates

I get the impression the fed is normalizing the crisis in an effort to avoid rocking the boat. Similar to how they downplayed and trivialized the US real estate bubble for years before it occurred.

Below you can see fed chairman Ben Bernanke downplay the significance of the housing bubble from 2005 until the crisis finally hit hard in 2008.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HQ79Pt2GNJo

History could somewhat be repeating itself here.

This is really a bad news for the big population of people that became jobless because of this pandemic. The government must do something about this for those individuals are really pitiful to think that their suffering would last for a long run. We know that the US have a very large number of population making it hard to offer jobs most specially at this time of pandemic. But the government may at least do something to take care about the welfare of those jobless people because if they are really facing the phase of continuous recovery on their economy, then there must be job offering to be provided to those individuals since they are the once being the essential keys to boost up the economic recovery of their country.


Agreeable. That was nearly too impossible to make happen that there would be a total economic revival to happen for US is known to be the top most country having the most number of covid-19 infected cases and the economy have been struggling due to lots of people being jobless so how come they can promise to have an economic revival in just a span of 3 months before the next election. This is just a boastful words lacking action just to impress the crowd. People must be wise on doing decisions who they must vote for the sake and welfare of their country and fellow country men

I'ts hard to see the economy continuing to progress with all things considered.  I honestly have such a hard time getting my head around the logistics of this.  I continue to hear people losing their jobs in masses.  First it was the small business industry but now it's really starting to trickle upwards to larger companies.

It will certainly be a blow to Trumps presidency re-election but I'm not sure that will keep him from a 2nd term, I fear.  I think his supporters are too focused and energetic for it to not happen again, he may be losing in the polls, but his base get out and actually vote.

What are you saying exactly? The bubble keeps inflating for 2-3 more years and then comes the blood?


Mixed feelings. I was actually quite sick of perverse incentives like giving jobless people $2,400 extra per month on top of state unemployment benefits, paying them ridiculous amounts of money to stay home and not work. I know several people who took a multi-month paid vacation (or worked under the table while pocketing the money) courtesy of the American government. I know homeowners who took the unverified COVID-19 forbearances and deferments on their mortgages and are hoarding all the cash or even investing it in stocks. I also know a self-employed renter who is fucked now because he lost all his income, didn't qualify for unemployment benefits, can't find full-time work, and there is no financial relief for renters like there was given to homeowners. It's really screwed up in the US because self-employed people pay double the payroll taxes but generally can't draw unemployment benefits if needed. It creates perverse incentives against running a small business and in favor of working for all the corporate giants who are monopolizing the economy.

These bureaucratic measures pile money on people who don't need it while letting so many slip through the cracks. I'm much more in favor of universal measures with minimal means testing (the closer to UBI the better) or otherwise severely limiting entitlements and tax subsidies and forcing everyone to compete in a competitive market, including homeowners. If poor renters don't get bailed out, homeowners certainly shouldn't be getting bailed out! The banks should foreclose on mortgagees in default, the housing market should dump due to strong supply, and responsible people who can actually afford to own a home should get their shot to do so at more affordable prices. In a free market where the housing market weren't artificially propped up, renters would also pay much lower rents. The entire system is obviously skewed to screw over people who don't own property.

Either give us a free and competitive market, or make entitlements universal, I guess that's my position. What we have now (especially after the COVID-19 bills) is the worst of both worlds: an un-free, un-competitive market that heavily favors corporations, the wealthy, and current property owners at the expense of everyone else.

This is not really a recovery,thry are just trying to float the market with lot of money so they can bring economic activities back but the unemployment is still high in US and all these things are done because the election is getting nearer so Trump is trying to show he is doing everything which helps their nationality over immigrants which might give him support as well.

I see Bill Gates endorsing the expansion of nuclear power atm. On the other hand, I see the media publishing questionable pieces attacking renewable energy sources like solar and wind. Claiming silicon in landfills from depleted solar panels is more damaging to the environment and climate change than emissions associated with burning coal.

The only interpretation I can think of to explain these and other precedents is ruling elites favor centralized energy sources like nuclear power. It gives governments centralized control over the production and distribution of electricity. Solar and wind are more decentralized, they allow private citizens to install solar panels or wind turbines on their own private property. Producing their own energy makes them more independent and less reliant upon the state.

I think there is a quiet struggle occurring where states and governments structure daily life to make people more reliant and less independent. They don't want to spook people, rock the boat or wake anyone up.

The elections are coming and one of the most important factors in any election is how the economy is doing recently, if the economy is doing well then the party in power has a good chance of remaining there, if it's not doing well then the opposition has a lot to say about the management of the economy from the party in power giving them better chances to win the election, this is why you are seeing more threads about the US economy and when you add the sheer amount of influence the US economy has and its size then it is not really strange that people are worried about their economy.

If he can revive the economy in such a short period, it will be a remarkable achievement which no president did before. However, it is hard for him to do that despite the fact that he is a businessman. Many people currently don't have any job but it is not necessarily mean that the economy is going down. When we look at the big picture, there are many aspects recovering extremely fast, especially stock markets and futures. Well, things seem to be awful at the moment but I can ensure that we will soon be back on the track

US economy will definitely recover but it might take not only months but years for the whole economy to be normal again. Small and large companies are still closing their businesses and that will also affect the people's economy too as they have no jobs to sustain their daily needs. Not only US is affected with this pandemic but even the other countries as well but it would be the president's job on how he will handle his fellowmen to overcome this worldwide crisis.

Election is near In November People will decide what the US economy will come in the next presidential term Because if trump needs time to make
 US great Again then people will bring Him back to do His will and to Make what he needs to Finish in the next' term he will be Having.

But I doubt that People of America will Make Him president again,IMO there must be a New one to try another approach specially
in Engaging in Other country in which trump fails to do,Sorry for trump supporters but i
 Just wanna give my opinion over matter.

But at this Moment?things are far different Because There are too many Job losses even before trump take the seat and it is getting worst until now
 so the economy needs to face a lot before being great again.

What happens in these few months will not have anything to do with whether Trump will be elected or not, and moreover this is something that is quite out of his control. There will be a growth, but it’s not going to happen in a flash, it’s going to take some time before things gets back on normal ground.

The main question people will be asking is how much he has been able to push their economy in the past years before now, and then there are also other things that will go into consideration. I don’t live there, but from what I have heard he helped to raise to raise the economy when he was elected as the president, but people still have so much hatred for him which I think has to do with other things.

It is prettysad that as the economy suffers then the people suffer too but with these election going on, they are using it as a political agenda, they could have created a better response through relief but no, they instead bide their time to formulate how to stay in power and people are suffering because of this, I hope that the election will bear a fruit to help the people and the economy stand on its feet again.

The greatest problem for Trump is that he sold himself as the person that will solve the problems of the US and make it great again, not a  bad speech if you ask me but now that he has to face a reelection we find out the economy is in shambles, inflation is going to be higher than anticipated, many jobs were lost and hundreds of thousands died because of the pandemic, even if we can say many of these things were not his fault it will be very difficult for him to win the reelection when things are not well in the US.

It would be difficult for US economy to stand on it's feet again same as developing countries because they have increased their debts, and there are still a lot of people who are jobless. There are also countries who continuously increasing their virus cases, that is why this recession is making all of us suffers.

People is absolutely affected by the economy, that's why the governments are responsible with how they will deal with that. I'm really not a fan of politics but as I see that the politicians are taking advantage of this crisis, that's the time that a certain country will not be progressive. If people are being fooled by politics and not looking for someone that will make the economy become stable in the long run, then that's a huge problem. Hoping that people will be enlighten by what is really happening in the society. If this economic crisis isn't handled and controlled properly, people will suffer the most especially those who are experiencing poverty.

yes there are bind to each other . you cant see that people are unaffected when the economy is down or you cant see that people are affected while the economy isnt .

they are actually busy on providing relief operation but they are also doing an election campaign with that at the same time . this is inapropriate in the eyes of the people because the relief should be given without strings attached .

if people will do the right job and vote the right people but that still take time to reflect. theres also pandemic that makes all the economy down no matter what,

The US is a highly polarized democracy with strong tribalism mentality, for Trump to win he doesn't have to satisfy everyone, he just needs to mobilize more of his base than his opponent. Plus there's a lot of propaganda going on that aims to help Trump - convincing voters that voting is useless, that Biden is as bad or not pure enough, that all that is happening is dems fault and so on. Polls aren't looking to bad for Trump, and he can win despite bad polls just like he did the last time. Trump's voters would never blame him for economic failures.

Stock market is flying high right now due to a massive amount of FED money coming into the economy, pretty much directly bailing out struggling companies through buying their bond offerings that people wouldn't have bought due to their situation. The stock market is also forward looking, a lot of information is 'priced in' meaning that people have already accepted the effects of Corona but how while the next few years look?

You have that money, then you have congressional money that came in from awhile ago, market will probably go even higher if the Congress decides on MORE money for companies (and maybe even some legislation giving them protection from being sued)

Big Blow to Trump? Well, yes. But all he has to do is convince enough of his own base and enough moderates that he is doing every thing he can do to try to save the economy. If he begins to tick up a bit more, maybe some vaccine news comes out, he could easily win. I know people hate him though, nothing wrong with that.

60 or so days until the election, still a LOT of time for things to change.

Well obviously, he is not wrong. US economy can't just crash forever without ever recovering, this is probably the biggest power in the world and even though China is stronger economically right now (by basically letting people die from starvation but still growing stronger as a government) we could easily say that USA is still more powerful on world stage (even with Trump).

So, we could easily say that USA will recover economically one day, it may not be tomorrow, it may take until elections because let’s face it companies are hoping for a republican president who will help them over a democrat who will help the workers instead, but as long as this exists, I could say that USA will recover with both of them eventually, may take time depending on some stuff but it definitely will.

The Covid19 pandemic will leave a crisis very different from the one experienced in 2008.
There is a lot of uncertainty and challenges, especially by the American nation, which is the most affected by the highest number of infections and by being a nation with an economy based on exporting advanced technology.

The economic model will have to be restructured to face the economic recession and get ahead with the great challenges it faces. Job creation is a priority.

The best hope is the vaccine against covid19. Fortunately there are tentative dates for the end of this year.

Total different since eventhough the crisis hit before but still the businesses are still running that's why its easy for them to recover fast, but situation by now is so different since there's a threat everywhere and the companies can't run their full operation due to the virus.


I don't think the vaccine will be available on the end of this year since the phase 3 of potential vaccine is ongoing and it was said that they can mass produce by next year once it is successfully tested and pass the phase 3 trials.

It is very interesting to see the development of the US economy facing the US elections which will occur in a few months.
Trump will do his best to make the US economy rise again, even though it is very difficult in a short time to make the US
economy recover. Because the COVID-19 pandemic situation that has not improved is the reason why the US economy is
difficult to recover. But Trump's decision in the near future this can certainly be taken into consideration for voters.

Even if there is no signs of recovery, they'll create drama that the economy have got recovered hiding everything to the outer world. Surely this will happen, because just to show them as the grown country the suffering and the poverty prevailing is completely hidden from the outer world. People always have a thinking USA is rich and doesn't have a single poor person or suffering for basic needs. The truth hurts.

I think this is not hidden mate because the whole world Knows how US is suffering from falling economy for how many years now,and even before
trump their country is not in good shape and this is what they must accept instead of hiding and portraying still the strongest country but they are not.
Well what can we expect from this world now?
trump may win or not but still US is not going any good in the next years,they will still struggle until they admit that world is changing and not every time is they are the most and best of all.
Every president claims this and all Their associate but the truth is does the people really feels that?or is the government really moving forward?
things that must be consider before believing what once said.

USA has been in a downward spiral since Trump get to power, they have been getting worse and worse with all the tax breaks to rich and not paying their fair share and basically all around a land where you are either rich or you are not cared about.

If you are making more than a million dollars a year, USA is a great country, it is the best country to live in, I would prefer no other nation in the whole world for a rich person. However if you are making under 100k a year (which is really a lot compared to other nations interestingly) you are barely surviving because how everything in the world costs you a ton of money.

At one point someone joked about how you could fly to Spain, get a hip surgery, run with the bulls, get injured, get another hip surgery and fly back to USA and it would be cheaper than having one hip surgery in USA. Think of USA as a rich men world.

I think this year is very difficult - maybe outward economic growth, but in the real sense it takes a lot of time because there is an election in November.
On the basis of which it is difficult for the Trump administration to show something to the people, otherwise, it will be very difficult and secondly, if it does not intervene in other countries then America will become too much strong and rich.

Inflation is an another problem if they will continue to print money.

If governments are not that prepared and they don't planned properly on how they will execute it to help the economy, probably they will have a hard time to make the economy recover. I just don't get it while people are relying on making more money that can increase the demand for people and businesses will be relieved from bankruptcy.

That really costs a lot and they need to consider other factors and results besides this inflation.

The U.S. economic rebound continues to lumber on thanks to gradually improving consumer demand that remains at risk of becoming tripped up by still-elevated joblessness.While initial jobless claims decreased in the most recent week, they still exceed 1 million on a weekly basis, and consumer sentiment is stuck at depressed levels. The improvement in job openings since the worst of the pandemic is also leveling off. Listings on Indeed.com are down 21% from a year ago after being 18% lower in late-July and early August.

There was a large scale disruption in the economy and the labor force. The line down is always a a lot smoother than the line up. Nobody should expect the recovery to be as smooth as the decline. Economies don’t work that way. Think of a giant boulder dropped into a pond. The initial wave is big, and each successive wave is smaller. But it moves up and down in smaller waves as it smoother back to equilibrium. The economic recovery will kind of be like that. Two steps forward, one step back. As long as the long term trajectory is still positive, that’s about all we can hope for.

It seems that the country is fast recovering economic conditions there. moreover, many interests may be needed so that economic conditions there remain stable and crawl up well. This is a big country and has a currency that is the benchmark for most countries in the world.
So, it's no wonder they can recover quickly. However, is it really honest and reliable data?

Many are blaming the pandemic for what it is happening but technically speaking the pandemic is only revealing the weakness and the strengths of each country in particular, for those that are super rich things seem to be perfect but for everyone that does not fit that definition they are struggling to make their dreams come true, and this has being going on way before Trump got in power and for what I can see it does not seem to be a way to change this tendency anytime soon.

The thing about printing money is that it makes your money a lot less valuable, when it doesn't worth as much as it used to you have to pay more for stuff and when you pay more for stuff you end up having more debt for it and when you have more debt there is a crisis and when there is a crisis you print more money. You see how it goes around in circles?

This is exactly why I believe it should be noted that governments should not print money, no matter what the situation is, flushing down the economy time to time would teach people a lesson, some will be super poor, but people are poor already, but in return we will get hundreds of billions of dollars (even trillions) not going towards companies, those companies will bankrupt and this will give a lot bigger lesson to be careful to companies than people.

Rich people who understand how wealth to work with them, they are capable of finding ways on how they will use their advantages.

While class B and C types of people will suffer from this inflation that will take place. Banks will find ways to
survive from this economic crisis putting most of the burdens to people who are using their services.

Japan is also a country that is diligent in printing money, but there is no inflation, it is even very difficult for inflation because Japanese people are too fond of saving. So it is not always the habit of printing money that causes inflation.

America and China are also diligent in printing money, even printing money done by America can save America from a great depression and crown America as the winner of the second world war and become a world hegemon, to this day. China also prints RMB based on layered projects, China prints money to make production machines, so that the economy rotates in China. No matter where the project is, as long as the project is independent and productive, the Chinese government will all out in printing money. The OBOR program is China's strategy to attract dollars into China without spending dollars, namely by printing RMB.

Obviously,US is really facing covid-19 cases,which US has the highest number of covid-19 in the world.  US economy is going down because of the new number of covid-19 cases  that is increasing everyday in their country.
If their government can do something fast to end covid-19 in their country like the way China is fighting their,to recover their economy fully.

Even though the spread of the corona virus in America is still quite high, and the number of unemployed has not decreased.
But I am optimistic that the US government can make the economy continue to recover. Because America is a big country,
so America should be able to recover its economy. Maybe the US economy is not recovering as fast as the Chinese economy,
but I believe the US economy will recover soon.

I don't think it's a culture of saving that is responsible. In my opinion, what happened is that 25 years of easy monetary policy made QE the norm. It's now been firmly priced into the market's expectations:


https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2018/07/31/japans-lowflation-problem/#1fde81da3d64

This is the perfect reason why poor people should never vote for populist parties, which will promise them handouts. These handouts will worsen the inflation problem, and this in turn will make the poor people even more poor than they were before. On top of that, since funds are required to finance these handouts, the governments will target the rich and the middle class with new taxes. In the end, no one will benefit. Neither the rich, nor the poor.

no , what is written on the opening post isnt about the covid19 but if you try to read it carefully you will read the keyword such as trump , bank and election . so by that , i guess the post talks about politics but the fall of a countrys economy still have something to do with the covid19 .

 we dont need or they dont need to rush things .  the covid can be cure and the economy can always be revive if done slowly

The US economy will continue to recover but it will take some time in that case even in the most comfortable state of the US economy growth will be extremely unstable. Needless to say the worst case scenario the United States may see a long-term contraction and recession in the economy. The impact of the virus has diminished in many countries around the world  and each country is trying to recover its economy trying to allocate more in the economic sector.

I do not get how the economy is recovering in the statistical way. I mean think about it, while stocks are breaking new records and everything looks awesome in that way, there are over 20 million unemployed people, considering how much of the population is retired old people and people who are too young to work, the population left has over 20 million unemployed people, that is USA historical record and never has been done before.

So while stocks are super high, the unemployment is also breaking records, how could those two things exist together? How could it not contradict each other? How could you look at general stock market cap and say economy is great while you have people who can't afford to pay their rents? It doesn't make sense at all, I think that USA is not recovering at all and only will recover when they actually get better all together and not just stocks.

How though? Like tens of millions of people are out of work right now, and nasdaq says everything is okay? US economy will not recover, it can't recover, the system is broken and as long as system is broken how could it ever recover. It is like saying a broken foot will heal when it is not even in a casket, it is just limping there, dude is walking with a broken foot, it hurts every time he steps, but he keeps walking with that broken foot like nothing happened because eventually it will heal.

Instead of letting it be, USA should instead put it to rest for few weeks, cast it and just make it heal a lot faster and a lot better, that way it could go back in a few weeks like nothing happened. But that would mean loss of money for the rich so they are not doing that at all, not even remotely close to it.

It looks like it's on the recover way, but at the end is only a bubble filling up, when the bubble crash it will be worst than 2008. Remember what happens there... tons of people using their homes, their cars and just getting more debts with the Government. The economy will not recover by the printing money way, that is a big mistake that grows up the country debt.

It is obvious that most of us will have similar thoughts regarding this, in fact during a lot of time in the past even if governments minted their own coins the coins minted by private institutions and individuals were accepted as long as they were made of gold and silver but then governments outlawed this practice because they wanted to get control of the money supply.

As such governments know exactly what they are doing and for the most part they aren't going to give up that right willingly and even if they lose it in practice in the case of a currency crisis you can be sure they will try to regain it as soon as it is over, so in my opinion this is going to be a battle fought for a very long time but fortunately now we have bitcoin on our side to give us an edge.

There are many desires that can lead the economy in the US to increase highly. However, is it the real data or not? As we know, the US also faces a difficult moment because of the recession and this pandemic like most countries in the world. But, how can they recover the economy so suddenly? they are a big country and it may not be so difficult to recover it. But, we can see the updates of how the development because it is also heading to the election??

The recession though isn't caused by any fundamental weakness in the economy, but by the need to reduce economic activity to combat the spread of the virus. Since the economy was artificially slowed and did not lose momentum on its own, this gives us reason to hope that the recovery will be similarly as swift. It's not a lack of demand harming the economy, it's health concerns causing demand to drop. Remove the health concern, remove the artificial recession.

Even after the governments removed some of the restrictions a lot of the people were still staying at home, avoiding non-essential travel. If they stay at home, that means that by default the consumption will go down. And this can have a negative impact on the economy. There is no quick-fix solution to this as of now, as a vaccine is many months away. I am guessing that the economy will remain in a suppressed state for at least 6 more months.

Yeah, that's because it's not safe to go out and do things like there is no pandemic.  We're technically in a "recession" because we've had two straight quarters of negative GDP growth, but again, not because the economy has faltered on its own, but because of a health crisis forcing everyone to reduce economic activity.  The recession will be "over" in that GDP is going to surge in the third quarter, but we'll still be far far below where we would have been without the pandemic.  Characterizing the economy as being in "recovery" hides how bad things still are.

There is one thing I so much like and appreciate about the US government, and it is that every government competitively stands to bear all necessary pain no to have a lesser delivery and to make sure they get no condemnation over the economy, just that in this existing condition,it's like the government has very little to do to put the jobless back in place. This time around, it's a harder nut for the government to crack since obviously almost all nations economy is affected, yet this is an opportunity to approve the competent government.

Recession will be there for at least two more quarters. Those who have burned up all of their savings are not going to splash their money, even if the restrictions on social distancing are removed. I am not sure how the GDP growth is calculated, but if I am not wrong, then the GDP of a particular quarter is compared to the figure from the corresponding quarter of previous year (for example, Q1Y2020 vs Q1Y2019 and so on).

This is wishful thinking and nothing more, a reduced economic activity will not be a problem if businesses were managed in a conservative way, but this is not the reality of our economy, the focus is on ever increasing profits and disregard everything else, this means that most companies were heavily indebted and they were not prepared to have their doors closed for months, many business have gone bankrupt and many more will probably do so during the next months as people either do not have money to spend and those that do keep it in case they need it for important stuff.

Printing makes money less valuable so it's bad for people with savings but it also has some positive sides. People who own property will see it retain its value and the newly printed money will save the economy from going into full recession shutdown mode.

If the US economy does recover the stock market will go back up and so will Bitcoin so let's hope this is more than a prediction.

Well the definition of a technical recession is two or more consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth.  We hit that in the first and second quarters of the year with approximately -1.3% and -9% respectively (on a non-annualized basis).  Every major bank is expecting robust growth in third quarter around 7-9% (non-annualized) and a modest increase in the fourth quarter.  So on in this vein, we will no longer be in a technical recession as of the end of the third quarter.

A recession more generally (and not technically) can compare year-over-year quarterly results.  From this perspective, 3rd and 4th quarter of this year are very likely to be lower than 3rd and 4th quarter last year, which could qualify as a recession (even though the economy is technically growing quarter over quarter).  Barring a setback, we would expect this "recession" to have ended by the end of the first quarter of 2021, since (again barring a setback) Q1 2021 GDP will be higher than Q1 2020.

However, even if that were the case where no way you look at it is the economy in "recession," I think it will be clear that the economy is likely to be pretty poor at that point given where we were before Covid happened, so the classification of recession or not is missing the forest for the trees.

US has the best economic in the world and most country depend on it, as long as people still have trust in USD expect the economy to recover. A lot is going on here that is merely politics and when election is over all these noise we die down and focus will be on substance. FED will do everything in their capacity to let this work out fine

Then how come it would be claimed that the US economy will continue to recover when there is no existence of landing a job to those jobless people who specifically might have loss their jobs all due because of the existence of the pandemic. It was an awful surprise to know that the government cannot land any job for them and they would just remain on that current situation for the long run as stated. Is it contradicting to claim that they are into the phase of recovery when there is no availability of jobs for the people? Man power is one of the elements needed by the country to prosper and continuously grow, it would really be a sad thing to claim such if job availability won't come for a long run.

I think the NBER's criteria (the basis by which the US is "officially" in recession or expansion) is relevant here. They don't use the commonly held definition about 2 consecutive quarters in contraction:


This is what they said about the current recession, as of 7 weeks ago:


https://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html

As such, I expect them to wait a while before they are willing to declare the recession over, even if Q3 shows a robust recovery.

There is no doubt there are some positive sides to printing money when it comes to a fast recovery of the economy but by doing so governments whether they like to admit or not are stealing money from their citizens, because as we know even if the amount of money in your savings account remains the same now what you can purchase with has gone down due to inflation, this is one of the many reasons I think there is future for bitcoin because it cannot be printed at will and once we go through hyperinflation as governments lose control of their printing machines people will try to look for ways to protect themselves and bitcoin will be there to help them.

Yeah, this is kind of my point. That if we are going by the technical definition of a recession, we will be showing the recession as having ended before (and possibly long before) we actually start to feel like the economy is getting back to firm ground.  After having fallen so far, any modest recovery would be enough to classify it as "not technically a recession" any longer even though what has been recovered leaves you far behind were you would have been without the set back.

I'm not sure I like the subjective nature of deciding what a recession is though.  The "you'll know it when you see it" argument is used for art and porn, sure. But I don't like it for qualifying a recession.  That one is too technical.

US has the most powerful economy that's  we need not wonder if they will continue to recover from this economic downfall. Also it is not just the first time that the economy of US placed in a serious economic downturn but they always recover.

The US economy will recover soon, FED will continue to lower interest rates at low levels until 2023. This means that the US has time to make a breakthrough in the recovery process.
I think it will be time to wait until the epidemic stabilizes and the businesses break away from China before operating normally again.

US don't joke with their economy, that is why they are seriously working to make such they recover all they have loss during this covid-19 in their country.
The reason why their governmen will continue to recover all they have loss during the pandemic, is because of the re-election that is coming up soon, so that opposition party  will not use economy challengies to campaign against the president.
I think with the strategies US has fixed in every conner of the economic, show that they are improving in the areas of economy.

US are facing the economic problem seriously and find a way to provide a better solution for this, that's why they recover fast from what covid 19 pandemic brought to their country. Hoping that other country can also recover fast even covid patients is still a lot.

According to Keynes, a recession is usually caused by an event, including a disaster, that brings the economy out of its equilibrium point. This disaster caused fear both to producers and consumers. As a result, consumers reduce their consumption activities, so that automatically, producers respond by reducing production activities. This reduction in turn leads to layoffs.

Even though the US economy is currently in a recession, it does not mean that it is very bad for the US, it is precisely the recession that occurred in the US affecting other countries that depend on the dollar and has bad consequences for the national economies of many countries. The potential for negative effects from the US recession to other countries in the world is because the US is an important export destination, the US is a source of investment and the US is the price maker for the majority of world commodities.

Well in this case, the recession is artificially imposed in that the government is the one that shut things down in an attempt to control the spread of the virus. It may have happened without government intervention as the virus spread and people began to fear contracting it and therefore voluntarily curtail economic activity, but I doubt it would have been as severe as mandated shutdowns. Because it's artificially imposed, there's hope for a faster recovery than if it was an organic recession.

As a big country, the US economy will continue to recover. However, it will not happen quickly because the government needs to clarify first what they prioritize to recover. Not just the US, the other countries will also do the same, and whether it is developed countries or big countries, the process is still running. The recovery process will still run, no matter if the election will coming in November, and no matter who is in charge, they need to continue the recovery.

As the United States is a developed country they are taking various steps to improve their country's economy. There is a lot of focus on activities after the lockdown is over allocating more money to different sectors but it is often seen that it takes a long time for the economy to return to growth after a deep recession. Recovery can be prolonged if the virus takes longer to control.

The advantage with US is that they can borrow huge amounts of money at near-zero interest rates. Now this is some advantage that the other nations can't count on. In the US they already had the first round of economic stimulus. The impact was visible in the economy, as the employment rate grew (although not to the level that they had prior to the pandemic). But a full economic recovery may not be possible until the virus is completely eradicated. Even now, anywhere from 700 to 1,200 new deaths are being reported every day from the United States.

Even if the US can borrow huge amounts of money, that will not be the solution to prevent the crisis. I think the US government still figure out how to stimulate the economy to grow as before. The US's impact happens to all countries, and besides searching for the way to solve the economic crises, the government is trying to work hard to prevent the new case. It still needs time to recovery everything, including the economy, even if the vaccine is found. I think that the US will use tight regulations in any sector to prevent the situation from getting worst.

A ballooning federal debt can benefit none. It is true that the US can borrow money with relative ease, but in the end this is not a viable solution. Trump came to power in 2016, promising not to increase the federal debt. He was unable to keep that promise. It looks as if he has done even worse than Obama. Till now, Trump has added close to $4 trillion as federal debt.

Right. We will see what will happen with that. But I am not sure if that number will decrease in a short time. Instead of reducing the debt, the US can make its debt bigger in this pandemic. I am just worried about their people who can not survive if the pandemic continues until the next year. The next candidate will have difficult work to make the situations better.

Trump has sanctioned hundreds of billions of USD worth of handouts and huge stimulus packages, to strengthen the economy during the recent months. As a result, the federal debt grew larger. But at the same time, these measures helped a lot of people who lost their jobs during the pandemic. But the question is for how long this situation can go on. Already 6 months have passed and there is no sign of any slowdown in the spread of the infections.

No immediate solution is available as of now. The US seems to be suffering from a double whammy. First of all, they have the largest number of infections in the world (even higher than Brazil and India, and that too by a distance). And secondly, the fatality rate in the US is much higher than what they have in countries such as India and Pakistan. On top of that, things get complicated there because there is a very vocal section of the population which refuses to adhere to social distancing and other precautionary measures.

If people can follow the protocols and always take care of themselves, even if the pandemic is not over yet, the government can reduce the number of infections. But people do not follow the rule, and they seem to act as what they want without they think. It is hard learning for the US as a big country, but the US is not alone because other countries face the same problem. And if people realize how important their lives and other people's lives, we can survive until the pandemic is over.

There is a good reason to point out that Obama had a huge increase mainly due to the fact that he received a presidency from Bush that literally had a crash, 2008 was the year Obama became president and he took over the white house when all the wall street and everything else was crashing affecting not only USA economy but all around world economy because all the investments overseas was withdrawn as quickly as possible leaving all the markets dry.

So, he was a bit responsible about it because he didn't do anything to cut down from other parts of government to recover that, but he also wasn't the cause, not sure if not being the answer to a problem you didn't created is a good thing but at least it is good to not be the reason for it as well. Famously republicans are worse with economy as always but I am sure that will continue with democrats as well for foreseeable future since it is not recoverable right now.

Those 3 points nailed it.  The only thing is while job growth might negatively climb over the next year the market is blowing up which makes zero sense.  Eventually the flood of (debt) funding into the US economy will have to be paid for and when the bills start coming in, the market is going to plunge.

How it can be claimed that the US economy will continue to recover if the case is that even there are positive movements in the economy, they should still be ready and expect for the negative side effects which means that the recovery is still not stabilize and might not continue to come along due to the threat of the negative side effects associated with it.

Also, with regards to the unemployment that might last for a longer period of time, it is really a very sad thing for the jobless people not being able to work because there might still have no availability of job openings which must be resolved first to be able to come up getting into a continuous recovery because if not, people will remain reliant on what the government can give which will slower the process of recovery for people have no sources to spend for themselves.

If the US dollar is to retain any type of value integrity, this can't go on forever. It's been decades since the US ran a budget surplus which decreased the deficit at all, and it was short lived and possibly only a fluke as tax receipts swelled in conjunction with the dot com bubble. The US currently takes for granted that ability to sell bonds to finance the debt, but the world's appetite for this bonds will eventually wane as it looks increasingly unlikely that the US is even able to balance the budget, let alone pay down the debt.

I don't think that the demand for treasury bonds from the United States is going down. On the other hand, the interest in them seems to be going up. Average Yield for a 10-year bond is somewhere around 2% right now, and it is declining with every passing year. If the demand is low, then the interest rate should be going up. I agree that having consecutive budget deficits are not good for the economy. But tell me one thing. Among all the UN members, how many countries are having surplus budgets right now? Even countries such as Saudi Arabia are having huge budget deficits.