Bitcoin Forum

Bitcoin prices tumbled 6.2% Thursday, falling below $11,000 for the first time in a month.

The price drop trimmed the largest cryptocurrency’s 2020 rally to 50% and sent digital-asset market traders and analysts scrambling to explain the sell-off.

Here are three reasons cited by analysts:


These three reasons are explained in details here, if you want to know about more details about these three reasons just go through the link: https://www.coindesk.com/reasons-bitcoin-tanked-below-11k?amp=1

1. Bitcoin slid in sync with traditional markets

- I thought that there's no correlation with traditional markets?

2. Bitcoin got pulled down because of DeFi unwinding

- There are a lot of smart investors, it they are going to take the plug off on Defi, then there is something that they need to shift their funds right? So I guess bitcoin should be the best bet for them. So this is highly unlikely though.

3. Miners sold some of their bitcoin

- This is interesting but they should have sold with the price is above $12k. At least that's the typical and most logical move for them, not that the price is already sliding down.

But there actually is some correlation, regardless if it's a direct or indirect correlation.

Here's a chart of bitcoin vs the SPY(SPDR S&P500 ETF):

■ bitcoin      ■ SPY

Bitcoin cannot be completely non-correlated to other markets. People have to act one way or another, according to certain events. That's where some people consider it a currency and play it as such while other people consider it a safe refuge from stocks and fiat.

The Bitcoin graph @mk4 shared above would probably look less different to the SPY if more people considered it a safe haven. If they consider it the same as fiat/stocks, they'd play them against each other. Bitcoin may be independent, but if traders see it one way or another, they'll take actions accordingly .. and the charts move that way.

@Yaunfitda the correlation between stock market and bitcoins has been observed since April 2020, and therefore I’m not surprised that the correlation between the two has continued in this month too.

@mk4 yes the correlation is real and it’s also pertinent to note, that Analysts had already claimed that September is usually the worst month for bitcoins, so an crash was always bound to happen, but this crash took place early because the stock markets suddenly crashed.

Also I don’t think that point number 2 and 3 had anything to do with the crash, and in my personal opinion these look like speculative statements.



Sources:

https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-rises-as-us-stock-market-rebounds-maintaining-correlation

https://www.ccn.com/stock-market-crashing-tech-bubble-finally-pop/

I suspected this having a huge impact to the current price trend. People are now taking the opportunity with the current market flows, they are probably selling their Bitcoin just to accumulate more on altcoins. They are making this way just to make money and take advantage on the situation.

We are moving back to $10,500, but I was not expecting that it goes down below $10,000. Well, I don't feel such consistency and keeping altcoins to its momentum.

https://i.imgur.com/VwQZljS.jpg
https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BTCUSD/mr2XssSJ-BTCUSD-long-view/

This is what we possibly see once done. We have to see what will happen in the coming days.

this guy gets it. +1 invisible merit

It's obvious that traditional markets are not dependant of the crypto market (obviously, it's not the other way around either), but statistically, something's there. It's not a coincidence that the BTC upward movement finally stopped with a massive drop and at the same time an important chunck of the stock market is full of red numbers

for those out of the loop, tech stocks plummeted yesterday, check out some numbers here: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/here-are-the-biggest-stock-market-losers-on-thursday-as-the-tech-sector-tanks-2020-09-03

Some are saying that the stock market and the crypto market are somewhat correlated with each other since their price movement is somewhat the same but I don't think that this is the main reason though.

Probably this is the reason since the DeFi hype is there already. Investors and Bitcoin holders are selling their Bitcoin to buy some new projects.

Somewhat related to the 2nd one because aside from the investors, probably miners are also selling their mined Bitcoins to buy some DeFi Projects.

Hi Side pillow (sorry, that's what your name means in my local language),

You have given 3 obvious reasons for bitcoin's slide this week. However, bitcoin and gold actually are "Contra" assets which actually goes up whenever traditional markets go down. It's more prominent for gold and silver though but also works well for the investors looking for a temporary place to store their funds!

Also can you please explain what do you mean by Defi unwinding? I am not sure it is happening on a super large scale that has the power to bring down bitcoin market so strongly!

There's a miners war going on right now, some miners were actually dumping their Btc on purpose to prevent bullish movements in the market, thus discouraging other miners that planned to operate during bullrun.
https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-may-spark-war-of-miners-1-day-pool-outflows-hit-18m  (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-may-spark-war-of-miners-1-day-pool-outflows-hit-18m)
Though this sounds something logical, but do miners really risk their virgin coins to go all out war against the other miners? Well maybe? Because they're earning not only with the block rewards but also with tx fees.

Whatever is their reason of selling, I don't see the selling part will be long term. Once they got their target funds, they will stop selling. I don't think they are aiming to do this for long period of time. Let's see what happens in the next couple of weeks. What's gonna happen with btc?

Also, the decrease in btc price is contributed by many factors. Maybe not only the 3 reasons mentioned by the OP but there are other factors that affect this decline.

Well, basically it's just supply and demand, and one thing is for sure, there's a selling spree happened that causes Btc to decrease almost $2,000 from its the last $12,000 mark. The miners actions of selling their virgin coins is one of the main contributing factor to the price declination.
Nevertheless, If Btc goes under $9,000 level, then I don't see it as bad market movement but a good opportunity to accumulate. We're yet to have a 2017ish kind of bull market and that everyone is expecting in 2021.

All those three reasons are probably quite right. They all did happened and this is what I have been trying to say to people, bunch of stuff needs to happen together to make a drastic change and not just one thing. People think that one big bad news and bitcoin could crash, that is very unlikely, I am not saying it is impossible but it is very unlikely, but when these things add up and become one big major voltran, that ends up with major changes in the price as well obviously.

Miners were a big hit, we really didn't see that one coming at all, other ones were a bit expected and not a shock, still hurts the market but not unexpected, but miners coming out and selling coins wasn't in the plans, it wasn't even calculated when making trades, it was a big hit.

Mostly got used to it whenever there were bad news in the past, it has a quick reaction from the bitcoin market. And that is the reason why people who have been thinking of negative news affects the market because it did in the past and will probably be.

Which ends up whenever there's tanking in the market, the first reason is about bad news. But this time, it's not like that any longer.

Reason number 1 is possible. Reason number 3 is more possible. But I don't agree with reason number 2. If DeFi starts to unwind and investors are beginning to lose their trust in it, it must be in favor of Bitcoin. The funds that will leave DeFi will probably return to the most trusted coins, into Bitcoin more than any altcoin. This must push Bitcoin's price instead of pull it down.

As mk4 showed with that graph, the myth of BTC not getting affected by events int he global economy has been busted in April, and as you know, that was one hell of a ride when it went down faster than the markets trying to catch up with them and then take the lead.

I don't know if it's a real correlation between them or it's just manipulation, that is as in bots going amok because of their settings and driving the price down, or real people selling because they are actually afraid on the outlook but lately both upwards and downwards trends are beginning to follow the same pattern of traditional markets. It could be the amount of money getting printed or the need for fiat for some investors, sentiment or god knows what but right now I'm not seeing BTC breaking the chains in the near future.

Probably we will have to wait for the virus effects to go away and the effects of the stimulus money to be felt before that happens.


There are speculations of a miners war going on, nothing more.
Common, the whole thing was supposed to be caused by an outflow of 1600 coins while miners have mined more than 10 000 since that drop, and nothing really happened.
And what was that even for a move? Sending to the change their rewards for 5 days (talking about the pools in question) and hell breaks loose?
What if they would have sent all their BTC, would the price have tanked to 4k because of 10k coins? Common!!!

Totally agree that bitcoin should have a stronger support that doesn't get affected by these things this easily, sure they are not nothings but it shouldn't be this easy neither, we have to be stronger. There are some people on bitcoin that wants bitcoin to go down and there are people who are too afraid and get out to quickly, these two people work together even though one side doesn't realize it.

People who wants it to go down just uses the people who are afraid, they just sell a bit and make a big scene about how it is going down and that results with people are afraid to help them out and bring it even lower. That is why if you check the drops you will realize that there are usually two falls, one half happens first and in a day the other half happens.

Yes, but people should be afraid because bitcoin is in a catastrophic 4 year long-term down trend. All the math proves it. These days it's always best to sell bitcoin and just use cash. You can confirm this yourself with the right math and science knowledge.

I just do it too after I earn or leave from a DeFi project will just put it for the mean time in BTC or USDT but mostly in BTC, any lose experience in BTC can only be a paper loss unless withdraw Ed unlike in DeFi projects or other alts that may not recover. The drops can only be experienced when there are whales who pulls out their coins totally in the market they might be done in the mean time as the market in the fast months were continuously increasing, BTC always experienced a dump and pump and we're just waiting in where to buy and sell it once the market starts to recover again.

Actually, such a drop in bitcoin prices was to be expected before the massive rally that everyone expects according to forecasts, but the reasons for the fall in BTC are very controversial. I see a certain pattern in the fact that bitcoin actively rose to $ 12,000 while the dollar was falling, and until today the opposite trend has been taking place, that is, the strengthening of the US dollar in the context of the ongoing financial crisis has triggered a decline in the bitcoin rate. But you also need to take into account large-scale mining pools that send significant amounts of BTC to exchanges, which are very different from the usual.

Here's a first hand experience that confirms that the second reason is really unlikely. I am not investing in any DeFi projects but if I were and I am beginning to lose my bullish view of it, I would certainly transfer my funds into Bitcoin. This is what I did way back when the hype of altcoins and ICO was very strong. Every time I sell them it would only be either be into Bitcoin or the leading altcoins. So this is more beneficial to Bitcoin rather than detrimental.

The influences are coming from different reasons, but most are coming from whales who loves playing around and create
impacts to shake down every small traders / weak holders.


Not sure to that pattern as both have different venues, though it's still investors who creates majorities in terms of market
value.


Make sense. Large mining company can do that, they also have such capabilities.

Massive rally should not be coming any time soon, we are still a bit behind for that to happen, usually that happens between 12 to 18 months after the halving when the real consequences of it start to make itself felt and that means either may of 2021 or even further like November/December of 2021, so we are very very behind so far. Obviously time passes very quickly, there is a saying in my nation that goes "minutes go slow, years go fast" and I love that saying, I feel like 2022 will be right around the corner with the blink of an eye but tonight can't come soon enough, that is how life is.

So, just wait around, buy when it is low like this and between may and December of 2021 we are going to see that massive rally. Which means this drop was irrelevant if you ask me since we have so much time for it.