Bitcoin Forum

  In 2016, I noticed that the bitcoin Bull Run started right after the US election.
I don't know if this is due to huge of US$ Printing. Maybe a lot of money was printed just before the election which can be seen in the market after the election.
>>>>>>>>What about Your opinion? <<<<<<<<<<<<

Not completely sure.
But I guess it affects it at least a bit, since each candidate has their own economic proposals and ideas that might represent an influence to the BTC holders and traders mostly.
Besides, it is well known that on BTC casinos people make some bets on the possible winners on the presidential elections, so those BTC movements might have a bit of influence as well. Just my guess.

It should not, since no matter who will win the economic policy that USA is running for decades will continue no matter who will be president. USD will be printed.

US election may have temporary impact on bitcoin price and it can pump/dump depending upon the political situation of the country during the election times. There will be no long lasting effect on bitcoin prices.




Doesn't matter. It will only make dollar more weaker than having any effect on Bitcoin BTC.

In my opinion, nothing can be said until the election it will usually depend on the US economy. There is also more political instability Bitcoin is not controlled by anyone but the demand for Bitcoin will decrease a lot if the dollar price falls. But if all goes well after the election it will drive people around the world to an alternative currency and transaction system. Growing markets will no longer want to be ‘associated’ with U.S. economic policy or the banking system and will become interested in alternative systems.

I tend to visualize the price of Bitcoin as being composed of two components: a "digital gold" component which will behave similarly to gold, and a "risk asset" component which will behave like leveraged exposure to the S&P 500. (Neither with 100% correlation, of course, since Bitcoin is its own thing.) The gold component is maybe 20% of the price currently, while the risk-asset component is maybe 80% of the price, so the risk-asset component usually dominates.

I think that any clear resolution to the election will boost risk assets significantly in the medium-term, Bitcoin included, since one of the biggest risks will be taken out of the picture. A chaotic, disputed election outcome will probably cause risk assets including Bitcoin to crash. If chaos lasts a long time, the "digital gold" component of the Bitcoin price may start to dominate more, and this may allow its price to recover more quickly than some other assets. Long-term, a Biden presidency is probably somewhat worse for Bitcoin, since his administration will be more anti-Bitcoin and will be much more likely to put forward harmful regulations. (Not that Trump is super pro-Bitcoin or anything...) I wouldn't expect these sorts of long-term predicted effects to cause much shorter-term price action, though, other than maybe a very-short-term panic crash.

You thought it wrong, it's just a coincidence that's why it happens since the Bitcoin halving happened four years ago and I think almost everyone know that after the halving, bull market will follow in no time. Besides, Bitcoin isn't centralized that you thought US would be likely controlling the price of Bitcoin, which is not. And FYI, mass printing of dollars would likely cause an inflation and I guess the government all know that.

Money printing aside, the stock market is correlated to BTC, so I disagree.

If Biden wins, and especially if the Democrats take both houses of Congress, his administration will roll back lots of Trump's pro-business policies, tax cuts, etc. Investors know this and will definitely be pricing it in. The correlation between stocks and BTC will do the rest.

No related at all. Unless these presidential candidates will say something to bitcoin, like being positive or negative, it might gradually move the price.

But market-related, no direct connection at all. Countries, even how powerful they are, can't just easily print money for that purpose.

Why should they do that in the first place?

If the price should increase just because of printing more money then the price of bitcoin will reach $100k or even more because that much amount of fiat were printed all over the world as well as in USA due to the pandemic recovery packages.Probably this will go into speculative thing which could increase or decrease the price but this is not something important,jist a common thing happens in crypto market.

True that bitcoin isn't been controlled by a centralized systems, denying the government of a direct control of the price of currency but that doesn't mean they can't influence the price negatively or otherwise with their actions. For example, we can all see how the recent development of trump testing positive to the coronavirus having a negative impact on the market.

The US market is one of the strongest influencers on the bitcoin market as some major decisions placing out there does has a way of leaving an impact on the bitcoin market. Read through @theymos reply and you'll see some reasonable points in his statement. A Trump adminstration will be more favourable to the Bitcoin market than that of Biden, there won't be no coincidence there.

The election itself doesn't affect the price of Bitcoin.
On the other hand, the election may affect the price of the Stock Market in any way either a bullish or a bearish.

This will affect the price of Bitcoin since many believe that these 2 markets are correlated with each other so the effect of the Stock Market after the election will affect the Bitcoin's price. Either way, they will just print dollar still whoever wins :D.

There is both correlation between them and there is also none. There is correlation in the sense that word does not really move during the election period, they wait for what will happen and see what happens and move afterwards, this is the part where they are connected. However the part where it doesn't is the fact that it doesn't have to move afterwards, or it doesn't make it go up or down neither, it just lets go off the breaks and lets it loose, this doesn't mean one thing or another happens afterwards neither.

For example, 2014 happened after 2012 election as well if you go further down and it was created after 2008 election too, you can always find connections that way but it just doesn't make it move, it just makes it not stop for sure which is different.

It is not of course, you are too excited and maybe have no idea what bitcoin have been through several big moments without have any backup news like what you mentioned above regarding the US election,  it is just accidental event and cannot be considered as the main factor,  too naive and it cannot be.
The price move up and down pue come from people power who constantly trade behind their own computer , nobody can manipulate it or have bigger impact than the proplr power itself.

That's the reason that bitcoin price is expected to rise beyond expectations. Bitcoin supply cannot be increased and therefore there is no inflation. Printing more fiat money give immediate benefit but it will bring big financial crisis in the long term. Under no circumstances, more fiat notes should be printed.

I think there is undoubtedly an influence. I noticed that after it was announced that Trump had contracted the virus, the markets reacted with a drop. I may be wrong, but from this we can conclude that the weighted average market participant expects positive development with the continuation of the Trump presidency. The relationship between the stock market and bitcoin has been evident lately so yes.

I understand that there should be a link between Stock market and bitcoin , but i fail to understand why the trump infected with covid19 has an impact on bitcoin prices. Trump is elected president of USA and if something happen to him, this does not mean that USA has gone weaker. USA is not dependent upon Trump and therefore bitcoin prices should not be dependent on his health either.

I don't have a reason to believe it should, so I would say not it should not affect the price of bitcoins but that said there is always some movement around elections so I mean maybe there is a connection between elections and the price of bitcoins. maybe some policy changes are expected and hence the price can rise or drop based on those new policies.

Also the effect of such events in a particular country should not have a big impact on the price of bitcoins because there is a small groups of people who might buy/sell bitcoins during these events take place so don't worry too much about these events and the price being affected too much. I avoid trading during such times though like when halving happens I avoid being falling the victim to FOMO while also don't sell.

I read a lot of analysts and most of them say that now the disagreements between the US presidential candidates are not just great, but insoluble. Obviously, with such contradictions, some option is worse (for the market) and some is better, so there is a direct impact on the stock market and indirectly on bitcoin. I am not an expert on the US and the stock market, but this connection (Trump's infection announcement -> stock market fall) has been highlighted by almost all people following politics and the stock market.

Yes the 2020 election will have a short term impact on the price of bitcoin. Reason why is because since the start of this pandemic bitcoin and others cryptos have started to trade as risk-on assets which are stocks pretty much. Notice how when the stock market is crashing so is bitcoin? Its not a coincidence. Remember few days ago when Trump tweeted he had Covid19 and BTC started to tank? It was because global markets started to tank first and cryptos followed.

The 2016 election was not correlated. Even though him winning the election set-off a bull run it was more of a coincidence. Because back then it wasn't corrected. Especially in 2014-2015 when stocks were doing well but bitcoin kept going lower and lower and went below $200 momentarily.y

So the 2020 will definitely have an impact on the price of BTC.

I do not remember well that part if when Trump won the Bitcoin rose, what I do know is that in December it is very likely that the price of Bitcoin could rise due to the fact that demand increases. The fact that a new president or elections arises to be replaced by the current one, may not be a fundamental one, but if it is for the price to rise, then so be it.

From what I know the reason why it is linked to the election is because Trump had won the election and his campaign has promise the "Make America Great Again" campaign which includes boosting the economy of US, speculators linked this heavily for Bitcoin going up but the thing is on the day that Trump won Bitcoin only increased by 3% which even before that time is considered a normal occurrence for Bitcoin's price movement. We can just blame news creators here where they aren't really doing anything but just try and link every event that happens affects the price of Bitcoin which drives normal people nuts.

What's happening over bitcoin these days can't be associated with politics, partly it's the effect of global health crisis. We need more years before bitcoin price soar just like what we've experienced last 3 years ago in times of bullrun. FOMO always tend to happen, but don't get mad if you've been a victim of it because by the time you're able to survive with the current bear market you'll harvest what you've planted. Of course that's profit along the way, when you have invested for your future.

It might affect the price as the easiest avenue to send fund to support their candidate. Eyes have begun to open into the adoption of BTC and positive vibe about Bitcoin during campaign can also drag the price upward.

I think there is a short impact but it will recover shortly. Just like this scenario when Trump announced that he is infected by the coronavirus on this thread discussion (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5279522.0), as you can see the graph showed that the Bitcoin price was affected altogether with the stock market, but later on, Bitcoin price has been recovered from a small correction that might the reason of what happened by President Trump. I think that's natural that every activity in the US has an effect on all market prices.

It might this US election has an impact on Bitcoin price, we don't know if it will going to surge or drop the price.

I also keep seeing some kind  of topics in CT (Crypto Twitter)
Which they are telling that they first converted their Bitcoin to USD or fiat because they are expecting a huge dump DURING US election.
So we have own opinions, and that's what they believe.
Honestly even there is no upcoming US election, 10,000 USD price of Bitcoin is still cheap.

No, it won't impact bitcoin cost or his market yet the demonstration of government on the economy will deice what will befall the market Like if each individual becomes jobless they'll not ready to purchase bitcoin or contribute to it.

---

Peoples can sell out bitcoin just to endure.
The political decision won't impact however the demonstration of government can exceptionally impact on bitcoins cost and the market.

General sentiment effects Bitcoin I'd say as it has some relation to a contraction or expansion in monetary velocity.   2016 we did fall briefly on the election result across all assets bar bonds and similar safe assets then the market very much rose from that point.    I'd say its quite reliable that stocks generally go up in a way that correlates to BTC also finding easier progress upwards.      Either candidate in the US election will likely expand fiscal spending and easy money policy so I dont think that much matters precisely but how perception will occur at that time will vary.
   The big rise end of 2016 into 2017 was not immediate or obvious imo and was not a result of just one thing, it was also following a large retraction from the 2013 peak and being released from that negative trend allowed a great rise so that 'spring' effect is something to recognise also.   Imo we are not quite the same in 2020 into 2021 as we were 2016 to 2017, price is higher and I dont think we've been as negative as back then.   I think we take a little more time personally, just my guess.

This election is a bit different, it is not really like any other, people hated each others president a lot because of ideological reasons mainly but this time around there is a big hatred towards Trump as a person. I can testify that before Trump last 5 presidents didn't disrespected their opponents the way he did, dude is rude and obviously a criminal as well, this is not like any other election.

This obviously changes the financial world as well, there are people who support him and want him to make difference for rich people and there are people who want him out to make the whole nation go up together, this is really just a fact. Which means if financial world gets affected this way, it will affect bitcoin as well and that is how the price change will happen depending on the result.

Biden and Trump huh?
There will be a lot of spending but I don't about money printing.
It's supposed to be regulated.

If they just print more then the value of USD will go lower without anything to sell in exchange for it.
I don't think it will move bitcoin a lot.
I am more worried about the next thing that will happen if either of them will get elected.
Ain't there a third man to vote for?  ;D

The election in US will surely reflect and affect the money flow in the country.If the flow is high,surely it reduce the price of bitcoin further more.In such situations,holding is the best option.If the price of US dollar will be reduced,surely it panic the trader and make to sell their holding bitcoin at less price.

I'd never had to expect such influence on the market. Unless if they use Bitcoin for their campaign, converted it to fiat, making a huge demand for ads? Probably not all US citizens are using Bitcoin has made the price either to dump or pump. The up and down sentiment will never change because of the said election, a lot of factors affecting this, and it might be just a big coincidence if that so happening and the price will be bullish.

Judging by various polls (https://ig.ft.com/us-election-2020/) and research, most prefer Biden - but it seems to me personally that Trump still has some ace up his sleeve. What worries me is that Trump has already mentioned some election fraud, the influences of various external forces and we have not yet heard that someone deliberately infected him with Covid-19 just to lose the election. I'm not sure how many complications Trump can make if he doesn't win - but I have to admit I'm not at all clear of what Biden can be expected to do.

You are obviously better informed about what Biden and the people around him think about Bitcoin, and according to your comment, it seems that Biden is at least a little more against Bitcoin then Trump. But how much damage or benefit one person can do in this regard, because they say that Trump allegedly ordered in 2018 that some services seriously deal with Bitcoin, but today it is more than obvious that nothing drastic has happened.

The US election will surely have some impact over the bitcoin market. If Trump once again gets elected there won't be big disturbance in the market, but if the opponent Biden comes I expect some wild fluctuation in the market upward or downward. Probably before the election date too there is chance of market crash to some point, because it will be the time to invest and expect profit based on the outcome after polling.

Not sure because it might just be a coincidence, and maybe the next bull run will be the same but still, it happened after a year of the halving happened and not about the US election. But whatever your view on it, I don't think there is anything wrong as long as you can use that moment to make a profit, if you realize it then I think it is a strategy that might be good for you.

I hadn't thought of it in these terms before. Excellent take.


I think people are exaggerating the likelihood of a contested election. Trump isn't going to pull off a military junta or something if he loses. I also doubt the results would be so close to end up with recount drama like 2000. Even if they were, it would be resolved in a few weeks.

I put more emphasis on the risk asset correlation. A Trump victory means a continuation of corporate tax cuts and loopholes, pro-business regulations, etc. That's good for stocks, good for Bitcoin. A Biden victory means the opposite. We may see a major fluctuation prior to the election if it becomes abundantly clear one candidate is slated to win.

How can it have any impact on the Bitcoin prices, when both the candidates are indifferent to Bitcoin? When Trump won the elections in 2016, there was some hype that he will favor cryptocurrency. That hasn't happened. That said, Trump has taken a position that is not overly hostile to the idea of cryptocurrency. Don't know much about Biden's position on this issue. But I don't expect much from left-wing politicians.

I assume that if they do something about crypto it could maybe affect it, I have seen neither of them have anything about crypto in their platforms, they seem to be not even caring about it which is why I believe it is going to be irrelevant. Election in itself could affect the market because usually elections are a volatile thing in their nature but at the end of the day I feel like it is going to be not a big deal for any of us.

However if one of the candidates comes out and says that they are going to embrace crypto and they are going to make crypto business a lot more common or whatever that could definitely affect us, but do you really think that neither of those old people could be ever agreeing to something like that? They are too old to understand bitcoin.

I don't even know what can be assumed regarding the dependence of the US presidential elections and the situation in the cryptocurrency market. But world politics is very dependent on this event. At least for today, one can notice a certain dependence of the Russian ruble exchange rate, because if Biden's rating rises, the ruble exchange rate falls, and if Trump's rating rises, the ruble rises in value. But if we take into account Trump's negative attitude towards cryptocurrency and Biden's positive attitude towards cryptocurrency, then it is likely that there is still a certain connection between the results of future elections in the United States and future circumstances in the cryptocurrency market.

Honestly I haven't seen theymos write for so long, I understand that he doesn't roam around everywhere, there are places he goes and talks to and usually stays silent for the majority others but I guess making it about USA elections made him a bit more interested.

One can argue that he could be american as well from that. In any regards, I do not agree with him, there is only one thing that bitcoin compares to and it is digital gold, the other leveraged s&p 500 is only because there are times even gold can fall and during those times bitcoin is more volatile so acts a lot more radical while stock market goes down too, not like gold goes up every single day, it does fail to go up time to time and this is why people think they are related when that is not true.

The effect doesnt have to be direct, change of President will certainly weigh into stocks and bonds and Crypto is listed on leveraged account alongside those positions.    Its just for the simple reason that when my long SP500 stocks bet goes down I get a margin call that requires me to produce capital or sell other positions and crypto is far more speculative then stocks and bonds in most traders minds.
  Of course there is the pure crypto holder and speculators but theres a fairly large amount of corporate and general trading in crypto now, has been for a while because BTC is a listed price for options they are here in the price every day so politics moves crypto.     The back bone to crypto is always going to be users, thats who I care about for solid prediction but the price for just pure users is below 10k for sure and froth up or down will move us more immediately.

I highly doubt there's no relation. US is the strongest country with the biggest economy. It influences the world by every means. Hence, US elections deeply influence as well as manipulate Bitcoin, stock and every markets across the globe! However, I don't think the 2017 bull run was because of US elections as Trump himself is very anti-bitcoin as proved by his tweets regarding Bitcoin.

I think the scenario is simple --> when one of the candidates is elected (Biden or Trump), investors' worries will be reduced, if investors are not worried and put them fund to invests then the US Dollar exchange rate will automatically move positively against other currencies.  when investors start investing, the unemployment rate will decrease and those who start working and making money will definitely start looking for good investments so their chances of choices at Bitcoin are very big because of its price stability in this "PANDEMIC" period.  we know that the US is one of the countries with a high number of Bitcoin players, it will definitely affect the Bitcoin price even a little..

I believe that Biden or Trump makes changes. Trump is the sitting president right now and I do not know how it could affect bitcoin if the price somehow stands the way it is right now, if the president is the same one that was a month ago, how could it change a month later?

But, if Biden wins that could change something, I don't know if the changes would be for good or bad because we do not really know what Biden thinks about bitcoin and he never talked about it and giving his age he probably doesn't even understand it properly neither, at best maybe someone talked about it to him but that's about it, so he probably wouldn't have too much of an impact neither. But the only way bitcoin change is if Biden comes, because Trump has been around for the past 4 years and market won't react to him continuing.