Title: Investigate, assess news. Don't simply read and make wrong decisions Post by: tranthidung on October 12, 2020, 04:26:12 PM I hope my thread can help newbies in crypto market. :D
People are talking too much about investments from Square, and Micro Strategy or hacks. Do you actually spend time to investigate news, figures inside, potential effects on market? News from newsletters, articles, blogs, social media need to be verified quantitatively. If you don't play with figures and verify news you read, you only eat up words are written and manipulated by the others. It is root cause from which news are created for. People mainly eat up words from news, and spread around. Repeat what they read and eat and don't spend time to verify, and assess news. Do quantitatively research. You can not have capability to scrape data, run analyses but at least need to have intention to do this, then try to investigate. You will feel it is challenging but believe me "The more times you do it, the better competency you will achieve". In short, what to do?
Quality of your investigation will depend on
Fortunately, if you have good attitude, you can improve your knowledge, skills and quality of your investigations. Quote “In God we trust; all others must bring data.” W. Edwards Deming Quote I fear not the man who has practiced 10,000 kicks once, but I fear the man who has practiced one kick 10,000 times. Bruce Lee There are two types of news readers:
The table shows investments from Square and Micro Strategy accounts for:
If you move further by use deduction for potential lost bitcoin (from 2+-year inactive addresses. It is about 21.66% (in March 2020) of circulating supply or ~ 4010329 BTC (I used 21.66% and today circulating supply to estimate lost BTC). The % of Square and Micro Strategy investments will account for 0.032 % and 0.148 % of assumed real circulating supply ~ 14504577 BTC. They are still very small figures. Code: . di 18514906-4010329 In capital flow, those investments don't make any sense for bitcoin. Fortunately, with news spread widely by Internet, social media, and bitcoiners, they resulted in positively effects in mentality aspect. Then, in turn reflect on price (somewhat). It is good but when things are good, you need to look at it and be woke! In opposite situation, if bad news are released with same amount of investments, hacks, etc. you should be calmed down because of very low proportions in terms of total daily volume, and circulating supply of bitcoin. Hacks Like this news: 150,000 Bitcoin Coming Back to Mt. Gox Creditors in 10 Days; Will BTC Price Drop? (https://bitcoinexchangeguide.com/150000-bitcoin-coming-back-to-mt-gox-creditors-in-10-days-will-btc-price-drop/) How big / small the amount is? Please look at total exchange inflow (average). I am not able to get full data from that site so I can not give you correct average statistic but the chart shows the average would be somewhere around 50k BTC per day. By that I meant 150k BTC will take around 3 days of total exchange inflow. Not significantly big. Remember it is inflow (in average) not total 24h trading volume on all exchanges (~2164762 BTC). It is about 6.9% of 24h trading volume (as of writing). It has not yet consider how many receivers still been alive and still be able to receive those 150 000 BTC. Another assumption is the rehabilitation will actually happen. Lots of IF. Sources
Title: Re: Investigate, assess news. Don't simply read and make wrong decisions Post by: claire_lovely on October 13, 2020, 12:00:51 AM I mainly read to stay informed on technology updates or adoption, the effect on price in the short term doesn't matter to much to me since I will keep transaction BTC daily.
Title: Re: Investigate, assess news. Don't simply read and make wrong decisions Post by: tranthidung on October 13, 2020, 02:03:24 AM Another example is "Bitfinex hackers move another $30M in stolen Bitcoin from 2016", according to news from cointelegraph.com (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitfinex-hackers-move-another-30m-in-stolen-bitcoin-from-2016)
The amount is more than a half of investment from Square ($50 mil.) so you can imagine (with calculation of course, we need quantitative approach) the effects are small in market orders. But as always, people spread it around and their mentality have never been strong and stable. You can argue with the total amount of BTC was hacked and moved but please with this post and that news, we are talking about $30 mil. hacked bitcoin movement only. Please take this case as a very easy exercise for you to face with news. :P Cointelegraph.com has very poor quality articles, a sort of tabloid, from my opinion, and it happens for years, not recently. Title: Re: Investigate, assess news. Don't simply read and make wrong decisions Post by: so98nn on October 13, 2020, 03:51:37 AM Quote Quality of your investigation will depend on Methodology Quality of initial data sources Skills to clean data before analyse it Statistical analysis skills Many factors but first 2 points are most important because "Garbage in, garbage out". And the data available on the internet is just very enormous. I mean same news gets floated with different angles all the time. Once the top news sites start publishing any news then the other time they will be copies by small to mid giants, bloggers, and social media giving out some sort of false analysis. I barely doubt that anyone might be following the quality investigation aspects that you have laid down here; but they need to be followed if you are really gonna make important decisions (viz., trading, holding, re-sell, re-buy) based on that data. Quote There are two types of news readers: Read to get information and don't mind to verify correctness of news Read to get information, then verify it with their own investigation (with quantitative data) and withdraw their own conclusions You really thought this through hnn? :D I am the first one I guess and it's true. I mean all we get amazed with the news based on it's intensity and show some emotional reaction, that's all. But I never really go and verify the data seriously. Max to max I will recheck it with the bitcointalk forum. It is what it is. In your post these were eye catchy points for me. I guess in rest of the post you tried to make an example how one could go on analysing the news and available data in deep sense. However, that either needs skills, patience and also excitement about what is being read. :D Title: Re: Investigate, assess news. Don't simply read and make wrong decisions Post by: pooya87 on October 13, 2020, 04:39:43 AM as i always said when it comes to bitcoin news like this is not about the amount or even the short term hype that some of them may create. it is all about "FUD negation". when people are told something is "fraud", "only used by criminals", "dead", "dying", etc. they eventually don't think about anything else. the moment they hear the word "bitcoin" all of that FUD comes back in their mind.
but when they see the exact opposite is happening, the big companies are accepting it (eg. Microsoft accepted bitcoin as payment, Valve did the same, Japan adopted bitcoin as a legal way of payment,... and now this small news) they start realizing that all those things they used to hear were just bullshit. that i believe is the main reason why bitcoin price rises in long term (not short) due to news like this not because they invested $X and it is Y% of the total supply. Title: Re: Investigate, assess news. Don't simply read and make wrong decisions Post by: NotATether on October 13, 2020, 05:03:46 AM The problem is almost nobody is going to analyze what they read, much less corroborate it with other news sources. People like us are a small minority. Most people have a favorite outlet or newspaper they like to read and they believe (almost) everything in it. That's how publishing moguls have so much power because they can order people to write a story they want people to believe, and some people are too stubborn to critically assess what they read because the conclusion is something they don't like and don't want to hear. That's how fake news peddlers gain so much influence, apparently there's a whole class of people who wants to hear that the earth is flat, nobody landed on the moon, etc.
To most people, news is just opinions, not facts. Title: Re: Investigate, assess news. Don't simply read and make wrong decisions Post by: Josefjix on October 13, 2020, 05:53:37 AM The problem is almost nobody is going to analyze what they read, much less corroborate it with other news sources. People like us are a small minority. Most people have a favorite outlet or newspaper they like to read and they believe (almost) everything in it. That's how publishing moguls have so much power because they can order people to write a story they want people to believe, and some people are too stubborn to critically assess what they read because the conclusion is something they don't like and don't want to hear. That's how fake news peddlers gain so much influence, apparently there's a whole class of people who wants to hear that the earth is flat, nobody landed on the moon, etc. To most people, news is just opinions, not facts. It happens to every race of people; some are adamant with a particular news media. Some would never believe different news medias from the one he/she likes can broadcast a news with facts. It is just too human and it is high time we corrected such things using blockchain and developing technologies. Title: Re: Investigate, assess news. Don't simply read and make wrong decisions Post by: tranthidung on October 14, 2020, 03:40:56 AM Update with the news for Stone Ridge
My own calculations Methodology
Reminder
Findings
[1] https://hodlwave.com/# What news give you is much simpler. Quote Not only @Square https://twitter.com/Coin98Analytics/status/1315853890424717312, in 2020 there are more than 10 Public Companies investing in $ BTC, with a total value of over $ 6 billion, equivalent to nearly 600,000 BTC. Title: Re: Investigate, assess news. Don't simply read and make wrong decisions Post by: Saisher on October 24, 2020, 02:24:31 PM Another example is "Bitfinex hackers move another $30M in stolen Bitcoin from 2016", according to news from cointelegraph.com (https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitfinex-hackers-move-another-30m-in-stolen-bitcoin-from-2016) The amount is more than a half of investment from Square ($50 mil.) so you can imagine (with calculation of course, we need quantitative approach) the effects are small in market orders. But as always, people spread it around and their mentality have never been strong and stable. You can argue with the total amount of BTC was hacked and moved but please with this post and that news, we are talking about $30 mil. hacked bitcoin movement only. Please take this case as a very easy exercise for you to face with news. :P Cointelegraph.com has very poor quality articles, a sort of tabloid, from my opinion, and it happens for years, not recently. Cointelegraph is very popular here this is where members get their news create a topic that revolves around that news even quoting it, and people are discussing it until that thread create hundreds of replies so if the news is speculative it becomes a fact, so many are creating their posts out of context. Title: Re: Investigate, assess news. Don't simply read and make wrong decisions Post by: tranthidung on October 25, 2020, 03:02:28 AM Cointelegraph.com has very poor quality articles, a sort of tabloid, from my opinion, and it happens for years, not recently. Cointelegraph is very popular here this is where members get their news create a topic that revolves around that news even quoting it, and people are discussing it until that thread create hundreds of replies so if the news is speculative it becomes a fact, so many are creating their posts out of context. People want to see news, ok it is available everyday and they can read very low quality news. Remember that if you simply read news (read text by text then forget it and never mind to verify correctness and validity of information inside) you will be manipulated by news. You will read news in the same way 10 years later like what you are doing today. I wrote this topic, OP and the updated post to remind people that most of news or articles they are reading are low quality and hide the important details. They need to dig and find details and get their own opinion. Title: Re: Investigate, assess news. Don't simply read and make wrong decisions Post by: tranthidung on November 04, 2020, 01:33:07 AM Bump !
I won't update details in the thread because it is not the purpose when I created it. For updates on Bitcoin Treasuries, you can get them with amazing thread from fillippone (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1852120): Bitcoin Treasuries (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5280947.msg55504182#msg55504182) |