Bitcoin Forum

Hi guys,
I am not a player of sure bets but I want understand how they works in crypto currencies environment, if it chance that can be explored to win more...
Anyone knows free resources were sure bets are published, or there are only service or website that offers for payment?
Have you ever find website that track also bitcoin bookmakers?
Thanks for your replies.


edit: locked. thanks for all contributions.

Is this the one you are talking about?

https://en.surebet.com/surebets

It seems that they have an algorithm in which they could collect all the possible data and calculate the stuff that you might need. It's going on the filters area. With whatever you might want to check, they could easily tell you what matches that suits your filter. I see at a glance these parameters can be filtered:

• Event time
• EV
• Odds
• Your Bookmakers
• Sports
• Possible outcomes

I think it would make your bets have an advantage by checking the probability using the site. But the full feature has a payment plan, though. I don't know if it's profitable or if someone is actually earning with it.

On that site. https://en.surebet.com/surebets

There's a plan written.

https://i.imgur.com/Gn4E5N3.png

I haven't explored it, but the looks of it, it seems like they'll provide you an information for arbitrage betting as the "surebet" word itself implies.

Unfortunately the Bitcoin betting world is very similar to the FIAT betting world. I haven't come across ablosute save bets really. There is always some form of risk involved in the end. You might find bets with a very high chance of winning, but to be a 100% safe, I don't think so. With the internet and information being available all around the world, if there was really a save bet, everyone would buy it. And then the payoff would be close to 0. I would recommend you do some own research before betting. Be cautious if someone tells you it's a safe bet, there are alot of fake news out there.

Mauser I think you misunderstood what OP was asking about. If you read the previous two posts by Ziskinberg and crwth, you would notice that they are talking about and describing arbitrage betting. These aren't fixed matches of any kind, where the outcomes are known.

It is possible that different bookmakers have different odds for the same match. As an example let's consider a match with only two possible outcomes.

Bookmaker A offers these odds:
Home win 1.30
Away win: 4.20

Bookmaker B offers the following odds:
Home win 1.20
Away win: 4.50

If you were to find this, you could possible take advantage of the difference, make bets on both outcomes, and make a profit no matter who wins the match.

Is this what you are looking for or....!


OP, can you explain about your question "tracker", I really do not know and understand what you ask.


About the Bitcoin bookie tracker site.
If I'm not mistaken, have never found a site that can track bookies.

Definitely, the formula is very simple. just bet on Bookmaker A @ 1.30 odds and Bookmaker B @4.50 odds.
If I were to bet, I will bet $1,000 to  Bookmaker A @ 1.30 and if that wins, I'll be break even because I'm going to put a bet on Bookmaker B @4.50 at $300 which would give me a win of  $1,350.00, so less $1,000 +$300, my profit would only be $50... At least there's nor risk.  ;D

Hm.... This sounds interesting, I haven't thought about it. This indeed feels attractive, and if there's only the home win option and the away win option, and we neglect any additional fees, it works perfectly. However, this does not account for a draw! And a draw is quite a significant possibility, right? So at least we need to limit the variety of games significantly. And, to be honest, it's hard for me to think straight and determine which games are these. Sure, in some games draws are rare, but they're still possible. And in soccer they are very often the case, so the risk is quite high. Or one has to bet on double chance.

This is comparable to arbitrage bots trading at crypto-exchanges. For coins with little volume, prices may vary considerably. Had a case the day before yesterday where AERGO on Kucoin cost 0.044c per coin, on HitBTC it was 0.068c. If one is fast enough to buy the coins on Kucoin, transfer it to HitBTC and sell it immediatly, it may be quite worth the effort. But this functions however only with less well-known Coins with low trading volume.

I think it will be the same here and you will only be able to use arbitrage for less frequented sports, right?

Oh, you make it sound so simple.
But the truth is, it's hard to find good arbitrage betting opportunities. Most bookmakers have well-matched odds. But even when you find a good arbitrage (more than a few percent difference) chances are you don't have an account on both platforms or you don't have enough funds on both platforms to make bets.

It's hard to apply arbitrage betting on soccer due to the draw option, I think it's more suitable on basketball as there's no draw in that kind of game.



This could be applied in trading too, I have made some profit in the past using the site you've mentioned, usually it happen on coins with very low volume but in sports you can clearly expect that a site would accept a decent amount of your bet since it's an action from different site, and the fact that you are using 2 sites for this, it's never a problem for you to explain on a certain site of your intention.

I've been searching for a couple of minutes but all I can see are sites that lists best or top bitcoin casinos. It would be great if someone would be diligent enough to collect data from at least 10 bitcoin bookies and put in one site.

It could also be that if bookmaker A's odds dropped, bookmaker B's odds could also drop but are still higher than A. So you can still do arbitrage for more popular sports.

Bitcoin, fiat, it's all same cuz sure betting doesn't care about the currency used in X or Y bookie

But only for a limited time. Bookies are always one step ahead of us, they know almost every customer pattern and behaviour to spot arbitrage betting. So, as soon as the bookmaker finds out that you're arbitrage betting and on top of that making bank, they'll quickly limit you and then you're screwed.

there are some ways to avoid getting detected by the bookies' bots or staff (but sooner or later you will get caught), but they just take too much effort, plus there's also the part where you to find specific lines on many different bookies and that takes A LOT of time...All in all, sure betting is extremely tedious and not worth it the long-term

A draw can happen in many sports but not all of them. For example tennis and volleyball don't have draws. There has to be a winner of the match.

It is hard to do in today's world where the bookies are well organized and have systems in place to detect such activities. And the odds are more and less the same across all sites. But it is still possible.

A draw is possible in basketball and they happen from time to time. Here is a match from the Spanish league that was played about a week ago. The match ended in a draw and went into overtime. If you placed a bet on either of the teams to win, you would have lost. Unless your bet covers possible overtime which is usually not the case.

https://i.imgur.com/rLSKToz.png

Another sport where it could be used if the odds are favorable is ice hockey. Ice Hockey often offers 2-way betting where the draw is counted as no bet and the bookie returns your stake. But draws in ice hockey are quite frequent occurrences.

Sure bets is the same as arbitrage betting right ? You should check out bitedge/bitodds for those type of bets as they give out the best odds on crypto sportsbooks that would give you those guaranteed profits. They also have an odds comparison between each bitcoin sportsbooks and here's the link (https://bitodds.com/arb-alerts/) to their current arbitrage bet.

if I do that I think it will have a very high risk, it is better to arbitrage bet on a platform that has a good reputation and of course stay alert, because there are some new gambling places that only accept deposits but cannot make withdrawals so that our assets are trapped in gambling place.

That's a must, you won't gamble in a site that you think will scam you, as a gambler we should know that, and we should also know that there are plenty of sportsbook in the crypto space and not all of them have the same odds provider, hence this opens up an arbitrage betting opportunity if we are working enough to find those opportunity, but since there's a system built for that, unfortunately not free, so it's up to you if you want to avail, pay the plan, they'll do the job for you.

This and the fact that some bookies are so strict in their terms and conditions in regard to arbitrage betting could be the main reasons it's so unpopular when it comes to sports betting. I read some scam accusation a number of months ago where someone got banned  by one of the bookies for arbitrage betting.

there are some sites that follow all classic bookmakers trying to follow some odds that allow a sure bet.
I know the Italian version of https://www.oddsmonkey.com/
Maybe there is something like this also for bitcoin gambling sites.

Some sports betting sites are having a DRAW option which I don't think also that gonna be impossible a bettor will put their bets on that.

Gamblers had to find their way to ensure that they never lose and the reason why they'll go into arbitrage gambling. The risk is too high coz it also be possible that you lose all you bets on one draw that is why only a few had eager to do this. I don't think if that is the reason why someone got banned from using that strategy as you've said because there is no wrong with that and nobody knowns that as well.

That's what I have thinking too considering it's always a win-win scenario but more favorable to sports betting since the odds is already set compare to arbitrage that you may experience fast volatility of coin value and for worst you may be stuck when the coins is just meant to be p&d.

The only thing really that be a wet blanket here is if there's a draw especially on football but it will be good if it's on basketball sports betting.

good formula if it always could be why people don't do it.
I think there are certain limitations or the odds on some matches are not the same so it won't be effective in all matches.

This is a form of arbitrage gambling and many people do this. While going for such small margin the most significant risk remains is that of change in odds. Odds changes over time and after viewing the arbitrage window, if you failed to take an quick action, you'd miss the opportunity. And for this, you need to have a good balance in a large number of gambling sites most of which would sit idle most of the times.

not verry simillar at all because btc is not stable as fiats and the process of placing bets are also different because transaction runs in the blockchain.

when you play gambling you can set the win chance to 98 percent at max or idk to some sites if they allow over 99 percent chance of winning but it cant be 100 and the profit for this is verry small  . you can still loose on this kind of betting  . theres that fixed matches that said to offer sure win but are the deal for fixers sure ? we dont know but they  are mostly scam .

This is only a rare situation in gambling, sportsbook would always not allow this one that's why they look for the same bookmakers so they will not be abuse, by giving more arbitrage opportunity for gamblers, it's just like they are giving them easy money as gamblers does is not risking any here when betting.

I believe an ordinary gambler can't find this opportunity, this is the job of professional arbitrage bettors where they have a system to monitor these kinds.

Exactly, I made some experiment to find an arbitrage betting opportunity but I couldn't do it because I am just manually doing it, one needs a system to effectively do it, but there are people who develop it already, just pay them some fee to use the system.

@Ziskinberg
did you know some one that has already created something like this only for bookmakers that accept crypto currencies?
I am not sure there is something around it or available for free. This is why I opened this topic. If some one want share some webscrapers or trackers created ad hoc for this purpose, I am glad to take a look into it.

No, I don't know anyone but I believe there are people out there who are making it, I made some research about this, made my own but like I said I just do a manual monitoring which is very time consuming and not effective at all, maybe you can search something that requires some fee and try it out.

No free for this kind of service IMO.

And that is why arbitrage is so difficult, you need to have tons of accounts, one in each casino you want to have a chance of making sure bets, and you need to have money in each one of them, also you are taking the risk the casino is going to close your account as it is very obvious when someone is trying to make sure bets as for the most part you will always take their best lines available and you will not have the patterns of other gamblers, an average gambler will for the most part bet on only a few leagues but someone making sure bets will one day make a bet on a small soccer league, then tennis and golf and it will have no pattern, and for casinos that is suspect.

the system is not completely accurate, for example the trading bots are used by several people. and if that bot encounters another bot will they get the same result? of course not, one of them will lose. well if the system is used by many people and they use the same way who will win? ::)

In arbitrage betting you are not really playing against other players but the house, the only instance in which this is true is when finding and executing your bets, if a bot is faster at finding opportunities than other bots then that bot can make a bet before the odds change and if the bot is slow by the time it notifies you about a possible sure bet the opportunity is not there anymore because someone else toke advantage of it, but most of the time this is not a problem especially if you have many accounts in different casinos as you can always find a lot opportunities and take advantage of them as they present themselves.

You have nothing to lose here, if other bots took the opportunity, you can still continue to find as there will be an opportunity to find across this big market. I agree with you that we need to have an account in different sites to improve our chances of finding an arbitrage betting opportunity.

I would watch out anyway. I have read stories from people whose accounts were closed when a bookie found out they were using these SureBets. And another problem is that over time the limits have become so low that there is no longer any advantage to be gained. And if they realize that you are only using them for that, your account can also be closed.
Way to dangerous.

I want to understand something here, does this surebet of thing, does it implies or assure that the chance of winning a bet is there if the rudiments is well  followed as instructed, because I does not believe in surebet.

Although with professional gambler I think their prediction is not 00% accurate just use their feeling when bet which one they have choose, betting is the way how to get your chance lucky or not and not have system or trick how to defeat with betting bot, how ever you are smart always betting bot system win and never give chance for you get much money from their site. You can try when winning with little bet and try to make bigger bet with your money, you can win and have guarantee when using big amount you always not lucky and lost much money with gambling, just take control your emotion when betting because there are not always become the winner.