Title: The history of Bitcoin difficulty adjustment (in percent) Post by: tranthidung on November 03, 2020, 04:24:27 PM Here you go with my new thread. If you feel my threads are boring, please ignore me or this thread. No need to be serious, I am data-freak. If you read it, I thank you for your attention and your time. :D
Today, bitcoin network has its second biggest difficulty decreasing (negatively) adjustment, at -16.04992%. The biggest one in negative value is at -18.03, 9 years ago, in 2011. See details:
The network difficulty was adjusted ~ 7 hours ago with the fall of -16.04992% in difficulty between block 655199 and 655200. It is a big adjustment. The second biggest decreasing adjustment in history of bitcoin network. The biggest one is 9 years ago (in 2011) between 2 following blocks and percent of decreasing adjustment is -18.03. Impressive for today adjustment.
Code: variable | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max Positive changes > 10% 123 recorded days. Code: +------------------------+ Negative changes < - 10% 5 days in history, and the one for today is the six record. Code: +------------------------+ Updated plots Title: Re: The history of Bitcoin difficulty adjustment (in percent) Post by: DougM on November 04, 2020, 10:17:46 PM Here you go with my new thread. If you feel my threads are boring, please ignore me or this thread. No need to be serious, I am data-freak. If you read it, I thank you for your attention and your time. :D Good stuff...I like data too. Keep it coming ;D Can you post your difficulty adjustment graph suppressing the ~300 % outliner so I could get a better look at the chart's pattern? too small to make it out for my eyes ::) I am not sure you saw the articles recently posted in the press on the recent Bitcoin mining difficulty drop? If not check out this thread: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5286529.msg55513356#msg55513356 Title: Re: The history of Bitcoin difficulty adjustment (in percent) Post by: tranthidung on November 05, 2020, 02:20:22 AM Can you post your difficulty adjustment graph suppressing the ~300 % outliner so I could get a better look at the chart's pattern? too small to make it out for my eyes ::) What did you mean? I can give you specific-year plots for better visualization.Is it what you suppose to have? Quote I am not sure you saw the articles recently posted in the press on the recent Bitcoin mining difficulty drop? If not check out this thread: Thanks for the link. The article has little information, except a few additional information that what happened around the days big difficulty changes (not all history, only in 2020).https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5286529.msg55513356#msg55513356 Title: Re: The history of Bitcoin difficulty adjustment (in percent) Post by: LoyceV on November 05, 2020, 09:15:40 AM If not check out this thread: I was wondering why the difficulty would go down when Bitcoin prices go up. It doesn't make much sense, but it turns out it has to do with seasonal hydro power in China.https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5286529.msg55513356#msg55513356 Title: Re: The history of Bitcoin difficulty adjustment (in percent) Post by: DougM on November 06, 2020, 12:29:18 AM Can you post your difficulty adjustment graph suppressing the ~300 % outliner so I could get a better look at the chart's pattern? too small to make it out for my eyes ::) What did you mean? I can give you specific-year plots for better visualization.Is it what you suppose to have? Quote I am not sure you saw the articles recently posted in the press on the recent Bitcoin mining difficulty drop? If not check out this thread: Thanks for the link. The article has little information, except a few additional information that what happened around the days big difficulty changes (not all history, only in 2020).https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5286529.msg55513356#msg55513356 The past historical significant changes should be documented in this forum since they were living through it all. For example why did it jump 300% mid July 2010? ...Biggest change in difficult was probably around 10 july 2010 when bitcoin was announced on slashdot... resulting in the slashdot effect, a jump in difficulty of 300%. Plenty of good related historical threads if you are interested. I grabbed a few you might like: Price vs Difficulty Charts - indicators for buying or mining May 06, 2011, 06:00:38 PM https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=7427.0 Price drives difficulty November 08, 2012, 02:42:12 PM https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=123238.0 Will the difficulty go down again ? December 13, 2014, 11:36:13 PM https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=892774.0 Title: Re: The history of Bitcoin difficulty adjustment (in percent) Post by: tranthidung on November 06, 2020, 12:45:07 AM I was wondering why the difficulty would go down when Bitcoin prices go up. It doesn't make much sense, but it turns out it has to do with seasonal hydro power in China. It happens repeatedly many times and there are many factors are related or correlated each other:
Thank you for the new chart. However it would be good to see it from the beginning like your original chart however the 300% max outliner forces the scale to be small so it is hard to see the pattern over time. If you set the Y axis max to 80% it will clip the 300% outliner, but the rest of the data will be easier to see. Got it. To be honest, hours after I made that post, I seems to understand your idea about 300% outlier on the chart. Hang on a few minutes, then I will give you update. My solution is replace that outlier to the p75 value at 16.42% but not exclude the outlier from the chart.I forgot to run sum stats after the replacement. The outlier should be replace at the max value below 93.12%. Anyway, it is not a serious issue with only one data point. Here you go: Most of difficulty adjustment / change (%) are positive. There are very few negative changes and big negative values tend to occur in early or last months of each year After the replacement, stats will be like these. Max value now is 93.12% (close to what you supposed to have 80%) Code: variable | N mean sd p50 p25 p75 min max Quote The past historical significant changes should be documented in this forum since they were living through it all. Yeap, it is the beauty of data and statistics. From raw analysis, we can dig deeper, find out what happened in the past (from news or deeper analyses later). I thank you for the information.For example why did it jump 300% mid July 2010? ...Biggest change in difficult was probably around 10 july 2010 when bitcoin was announced on slashdot... resulting in the slashdot effect, a jump in difficulty of 300%. Quote Plenty of good related historical threads if you are interested. I grabbed a few you might like: When I have time, we can make a chronological compilation for it: changes from difficulty and likely real things happened behind. :DPrice vs Difficulty Charts - indicators for buying or mining May 06, 2011, 06:00:38 PM https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=7427.0 Price drives difficulty November 08, 2012, 02:42:12 PM https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=123238.0 Will the difficulty go down again ? December 13, 2014, 11:36:13 PM https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=892774.0 Title: Re: The history of Bitcoin difficulty adjustment (in percent) Post by: 100bitcoin on November 10, 2020, 06:16:42 PM Fantastic work. Is it possible to prepare a difficulty vs. price graph, where difficulty will be in X-axis and price will be in Y-axis?
Title: Re: The history of Bitcoin difficulty adjustment (in percent) Post by: tranthidung on April 19, 2021, 04:13:32 PM Bump it after many months of silence.
Again, new all time high of total hashrate kicks off sudden drop of hashrate. Reasons, this time, are blamed on flood, rain, coal plants, etc. but do you think any of them are real problems? Without flood, rains and any visible reasons you can think of, there are scheduled plans for instant shutdowns of big numbers of mining rigs. It happens and repeats many times. Hashrates top up, price tops up, then accidents come out.
Title: Re: The history of Bitcoin difficulty adjustment (in percent) Post by: tranthidung on July 03, 2021, 05:26:42 AM Update
Code: +------------------------+ To make stats more visual friendly, I make two bar charts for you. See possible lag effects between price spread and difficulty adjustment with that post (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5347298.msg57373508#msg57373508)
Title: Re: The history of Bitcoin difficulty adjustment (in percent) Post by: kxwhalexk on July 03, 2021, 01:51:11 PM I like to use data to comfort others, Most of the time, I also have the patience to collect and organize data
But I am still a novice and I am still learning. Do you have your own website? Or can you share your social media? I can learn so much from you, thank you very much! Title: Re: The history of Bitcoin difficulty adjustment (in percent) Post by: Pmalek on July 05, 2021, 09:00:41 AM Do you have your own website? Or can you share your social media You can bookmark tranthidung's profile and visit it whenever you want to see what posts or threads he has written recently. Bookmark this > https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1292764.If you want to talk to him, you'll be able to find his Telegram ID at the bottom of his services thread (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5241800.0). It's @tranthidung1292764 Title: Re: The history of Bitcoin difficulty adjustment (in percent) Post by: tranthidung on July 06, 2021, 05:51:43 AM Update
I like to use data to comfort others "In God we trust, for the others please bring data". Data is not to comfort others but to convince others what you are talking about. Obviously, it depends on quality of data and analysis method, etc. It is not true that all data reflects the truth.Quote Most of the time, I also have the patience to collect and organize data Practice makes perfect. So you can and I am not too good with data.But I am still a novice and I am still learning. Quote Do you have your own website? Or can you share your social media? Thanks for your interest but unfortunately, I don't have a personal website. You can follow me on Twitter as well (it is a newbie account, LOL)I can learn so much from you, thank you very much!
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