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Other => Off-topic => Topic started by: Lorence.xD on November 04, 2020, 07:24:47 AM



Title: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: Lorence.xD on November 04, 2020, 07:24:47 AM
Space debris by Wikipedia definition are defunct human-made objects in space—principally in Earth orbit—which no longer serve a useful function. This is not something that anyone should worry about but this problem could affect everyone around the world. A lot of projects are created to solve this problem specifically and hopefully we can solve this subtle problem with catastrophic effects. There are a lot of sectors that will be affected if this problem if we just let space debris accumulate in our orbit but for the sake of the board I am posting we are focusing on economic repercussions. Most of the repercussions listed are indirects effects.

  • Space debris move at orbital speed which means that a fleck of paint can destroy an entire satellite which in turn creates another space debris, this is known as Kessler Syndrome. This will cause for the increase of spending of a nation towards its space program or the other way, closing other space programs which will lead to unemployment and a halt to research in regards to cosmos.
  • With satellites being destroyed by space debris, communications will be damaged. As we all know in business, information is the key. With a lot of delayed calls or failure in connection establishment. I can’t imagine the money that will be lost but if this problem is not solved, this could set us back to radio and telephone tower era where the speed is a little slower than what businesses are used to.
  • Most advances in military technology pretty much uses the cosmos to their advantage, with a totally destroyed space due to space debris, this technology will be obsolete resulting into a waste of funds and resources.
  • The growth of space industry will be the most affected which was projected to grow to a trillion dollar industry, this could spell bad for investors and the country with their funds blown in the air because of space debris
  • If the nation chose to protect the satellites from space debris then this could set them back to because it is expensive

This list might not be an accurate effects of space debris in economy as they are my own words and most of it is formulated from what I have read and watched about the implications of space debris. Here are some of the articles that I have read about the topic. This problem is not that scary if you see that space agencies of different countries are proactively searching for a solution that is both effective and economical.

https://www.esa.int/Safety_Security/Space_Debris/The_cost_of_space_debris
https://dailybrief.oxan.com/Analysis/DB238840/Space-debris-threatens-global-economy-and-security
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Space_debris

My inspiration to create this topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yS1ibDImAYU


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: dothebeats on November 04, 2020, 08:24:27 AM
And with the Starlink deployment on low-earth orbit, Kessler syndrome might proved to be true although several self-navigational instruments are surely inside every one of these satellites to ensure that no such collisions will happen--or at least minimize the risk of it from happening. This is actually one facet in the economy that is almost often looked over. With the advancement of humanity towards digitalization of almost everything, people would need to be connected to the internet at all times and as such, low-earth orbit satellites providing internet connectivity on rural areas is a growing industry, spearheaded mostly by Elon Musk and his company Starlink.

The implications of such a problem might seem miniscule for most of us, though in the telecommunications industry this will be a pain that they will have to endure since initiatives to collect space junk are just starting and most of them are still unproven for practicality, even though on paper they 'should' work.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: DrG on November 04, 2020, 08:34:07 AM
And with the Starlink deployment on low-earth orbit, Kessler syndrome might proved to be true although several self-navigational instruments are surely inside every one of these satellites to ensure that no such collisions will happen--or at least minimize the risk of it from happening. This is actually one facet in the economy that is almost often looked over. With the advancement of humanity towards digitalization of almost everything, people would need to be connected to the internet at all times and as such, low-earth orbit satellites providing internet connectivity on rural areas is a growing industry, spearheaded mostly by Elon Musk and his company Starlink.

The implications of such a problem might seem miniscule for most of us, though in the telecommunications industry this will be a pain that they will have to endure since initiatives to collect space junk are just starting and most of them are still unproven for practicality, even though on paper they 'should' work.

The Starlink network is actually so close to the Earth that the satellites have to continuously boost back into position due to the perpetual drag they are experiencing. It is possible that some of the debris field that orbits from their deployment will get kicked into a higher orbit by another orbital launch such as a manned mission but that is a infinitesimally small risk - at least compared to the numerous Russian and US military and weather satellites that orbit at a high plane. Those Starlink satellites have to be constantly replenished because they burn up on reentry unlike the Kessler field objects which can orbit for millions of years.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: Cnut237 on November 04, 2020, 08:39:29 AM
Space junk is a genuine and growing problem. There have been a range of ideas about how to fix it, but these involve various ways to remove the debris, with lasers, nets etc. I can't see that this fixes the problem, because a clearer orbital environment would just increase people's desire to launch more satellites. I know one possibility that's been raised before is to have a progressive orbital tax, so the longer you have something up there, the more it costs to keep it going. This might work to incentivise people to remove their old satellites before they become dangerous junk. Again though this isn't a perfect solution. I suppose ideally we'd have some tiny automated robots up there keeping everything tidy, but that might be some years away yet.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: Ucy on November 04, 2020, 10:09:30 AM
I thought about the debris in the sky/heaven, it made me think more about having birds in the sky to regularly accept & beam down internet data. That looks like the safest approach as far as I can tell. The device that will be attached to the birds will really need to be small and also work as relay.
The debris issue sounds bad, In my opinion. I wonder if they even make attempts to remove them?



Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: Lorence.xD on November 04, 2020, 10:10:36 AM
And with the Starlink deployment on low-earth orbit, Kessler syndrome might proved to be true although several self-navigational instruments are surely inside every one of these satellites to ensure that no such collisions will happen--or at least minimize the risk of it from happening. This is actually one facet in the economy that is almost often looked over. With the advancement of humanity towards digitalization of almost everything, people would need to be connected to the internet at all times and as such, low-earth orbit satellites providing internet connectivity on rural areas is a growing industry, spearheaded mostly by Elon Musk and his company Starlink.
Low Earth Orbit(LEO) space debris are the most problematic because they are nearest which means most booster and defunct space parts are thrown around this orbit which if not addressed immediately will eventually become a virtual prison that will block possible space mission past the LEO. If the problem is not addressed, Starlink will be a disaster in epic proportions. Good thing is they are formulating solution to specifically address this subtle problem.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: hatshepsut93 on November 05, 2020, 12:42:10 PM
I doubt space debris can doom humanity, it's not like we have an urgency to leave this planet, nor we have the technology to actually do so. At worst, this problem will set back our space exploration and technologies that rely on satellites. But we'll also probably figure something out, I know there already are some proposals how can we clear these debris from the orbit. Or maybe new materials will allow spacecrafts easily withstand impact of space debris.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: so98nn on November 05, 2020, 01:47:02 PM
Space debris move at orbital speed which means that a fleck of paint can destroy an entire satellite which in turn creates another space debris, this is known as Kessler Syndrome. This will cause for the increase of spending of a nation towards its space program or the other way, closing other space programs which will lead to unemployment and a halt to research in regards to cosmos.

Kessler syndrome is interesting but you have taken it too far I believe. Though there are such incidences happening now and then, don't forget the space is big place and that's why we dont hear much news about collapsing satellites / accidents happening in the space (!)

With satellites being destroyed by space debris, communications will be damaged. As we all know in business, information is the key. With a lot of delayed calls or failure in connection establishment. I can’t imagine the money that will be lost but if this problem is not solved, this could set us back to radio and telephone tower era where the speed is a little slower than what businesses are used to.

Haha, I guess Elon Musk would laugh on this!
He believe in his dream of making Earth a better connected place with his new project that is "StarLink".
Consisting of numerous satellites he is dreaming that he will be able to provide internet communication everywhere on the earth. (Literally every corner).
So this contradicts your statement really. No dropping of communication and no failures whatsoever.

You may say that this is just projected plan but let us not forget that we have thousands of KM long underwater optics cable lying just to provide the internet connection anywhere in different countries.

Most advances in military technology pretty much uses the cosmos to their advantage, with a totally destroyed space due to space debris, this technology will be obsolete resulting into a waste of funds and resources.

I am not sure. Humans will definitely find out more ways to collaborate in the future. May be a pen size satellite spread across the orbits and helping to communicate? Why not, we have reached far side of the galaxies in just 50 years.

The growth of space industry will be the most affected which was projected to grow to a trillion dollar industry, this could spell bad for investors and the country with their funds blown in the air because of space debris
If the nation chose to protect the satellites from space debris then this could set them back to because it is expensive.

And I believe in the coming decades we may see ISS becoming stronger entity and ground companies like NASA, SpaceX, ISRO all of them collaborating for the betterment of humanity.

There are endless possibilities of this happening in the coming future to overcome the financial burden and reduce the global chaos.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: mu_enrico on November 05, 2020, 01:50:10 PM
It's not going to doom humanity, but it will affect space-related things such as space exploration and satellites. I would put satellites related things as the priority since it will affect weather data, communication, GPS, etc. Without these things, surely humanity will prevail, but it won't be as convenient as today. Space junk might be a big problem hundreds of years from now, so better focus our effort on urgent things, like unemployment and poverty.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: carter34 on November 05, 2020, 01:53:25 PM
Quote
With satellites being destroyed by space debris, communications will be damaged. As we all know in business, information is the key. With a lot of delayed calls or failure in connection establishment. I can’t imagine the money that will be lost but if this problem is not solved, this could set us back to radio and telephone tower era where the speed is a little slower than what businesses are used to.

This should be a big concern to the world. The communication and information system should not bhave problem as we have see improve in this system. The social media is doing well in uniting the world in giving information of all that is happening in different region. So we don't need to go back to the old system where information was expensive to come across with.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: Fortify on November 05, 2020, 01:55:38 PM
Like the pollution that humanity has slowly introduced to the oceans in the form of microplastics, that is creating an invisible cloud of poison now found within all sea creatures due to the food chain. The greed of people is already starting to be seen in space, every country and now many private companies are sending up a whole swath of satellites. One by one they seem harmless, but then old ones retire and start smashing into others, creating dangerous space debris that ends up causing further damage. Hopefully a financial incentive is found to recover and re-use all the materials in such orbiting debris, because profits seem to be se the solution (and the cause) of so many problems.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: Lorence.xD on November 06, 2020, 02:55:57 AM
I doubt space debris can doom humanity, it's not like we have an urgency to leave this planet, nor we have the technology to actually do so. At worst, this problem will set back our space exploration and technologies that rely on satellites. But we'll also probably figure something out, I know there already are some proposals how can we clear these debris from the orbit. Or maybe new materials will allow spacecrafts easily withstand impact of space debris.
Okay, it may not be the one that will cause the doom of humanity, it will be a catalyst though, you see if the LEO is completely impenetrable to do deep space missions, the prospect of space mining will be forgotten and the depleting resources on Earth will be subjected to disputes between that will inevitably cause a war, the wars might be small but it will slowly doom us when it becomes a war for resources. New materials are very expensive, in my opinion, it is better if they create a solution of clearing it.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: Salauddin1994 on November 06, 2020, 03:40:54 AM
The debris accumulated in space by the chinese test is in orbit more than 650 kilometers above the earth where the atmosphere is almost non-existent   they will orbit for a long time it goes without saying they are unlikely to return to earth's atmosphere. These are more dangerous for spacecraft or astronauts of the 400 pieces that have accumulated in space since the test several of them could fall into orbit around the international space station. There is a risk of them colliding with the space station every 45 minutes these debris did not become so dangerous in space they may not be as dangerous to astronauts or spacecraft.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: justdimin on November 06, 2020, 12:48:25 PM
A total destroyed space satellites could never happen, we do have space debris and I am not going to deny that they could cause other working ones to get destroyed time to time very rarely but you have to realize that space is vast and very big and even our orbit is huge as well. This means that if we could have enough time (decades) to figure out a system that could clear our debris in the distant future, we could have no problems with this at all, there is a long time until the debris is at a level where it is dangerous to even put a satellite, that is not starting to be a big problem right now, there is enough time.

Obviously it is a problem and obviously we need a solution but for a species that is getting harder to live in the same planet, I feel like saving the earth or leaving earth is a much bigger space goal we should have then clearing out some debris.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: amishmanish on November 06, 2020, 03:42:36 PM
The western industrial powers first burned all the wood that they could find and then go and tell the Amazonians to "preserve" their jungles. They killed off wild bisons and all other sort of animals and then tell the Tanzanians to save the Serengeti.

They burned all the coal and petroleum that they could on the road to industrialization and then tell the rest of the world to go to renewables.

They conducted every form of possible nuclear testing and then told the rest of the world that its dangerous so they shouldn't try.

Now Elon Musk launches hundreds of satellites after they have littered space and then tell the world , "Oh, space debris".

The more you hear these sanctimonious calls about saving the planet, its often discouraging to think that who in the end are these seemingly concerned rich people are actually trying to save.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: Lorence.xD on November 07, 2020, 05:16:08 AM
A total destroyed space satellites could never happen, we do have space debris and I am not going to deny that they could cause other working ones to get destroyed time to time very rarely but you have to realize that space is vast and very big and even our orbit is huge as well. This means that if we could have enough time (decades) to figure out a system that could clear our debris in the distant future, we could have no problems with this at all, there is a long time until the debris is at a level where it is dangerous to even put a satellite, that is not starting to be a big problem right now, there is enough time.

Obviously it is a problem and obviously we need a solution but for a species that is getting harder to live in the same planet, I feel like saving the earth or leaving earth is a much bigger space goal we should have then clearing out some debris.
A destroyed satellite will contribute to the increase of space debris in our orbits(Kessler Syndrome). Did you not read the articles that I have presented there is even a video that I put there. The argument that our orbit is huge is a BS, if you look at the studies about space debris, you will be surprised by the scale. Did you know that those debris are moving at an orbital speed which means that when it comes in contact with a satellite that is also moving at an orbital speed, it will be destroyed. This may not look like a big problem but this will be when the time that LEO(Low Earth Orbit) becomes a prison created by trillions of space debris.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: davinchi on November 07, 2020, 08:27:08 AM
We are talking about a future where companies really want to manage asteroid mining as a real possibility in our future. I am not saying it will happen overnight and I know that is something sounding like a very very far away future, but we have actually managed to put machines on asteroids before, this has been done, what we are lacking is a way to mine things there and bring it back to world which I assume could be done in the next 20-30 years by the looks of our development in space.

Now if you think about it, in the next 20-30 years we could do that, so being able to clean our space debris must be a lot closer right now, not something we are considering because let's face it we don't even clean our own planet, but the tech is not really that difficult to build and do even today if we ever want to, all we need is a shuttle to send to orbit to clean which would take a lot of money but definitely doable if we want to.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: YOSHIE on November 07, 2020, 09:39:42 AM
It's a terrible phenomenon if it happens, hopefully not.

I saw the interview of NASA scientists on CNN tv and a lot of things were said about this terrifying discovery, an extraterrestrial object that is approaching and entering Earth's orbit right now, The scientist in the interview said that at the beginning of his research he said the booster rocket was launched in 1966, however, strangely the object disappeared and now appears again close to Earth.

Which currently estimates by NASA the space object is about 27,000 miles from the earth or the equivalent of 43.452 kilometers, if measured, In the interview, many viewers were terrified and including Repoter fell silent when scientists told about these extraterrestrial objects.

I watched as two weeks have passed, scientists predict that it could fall to earth by the end of 2020, however, for now, scientists are not sure whether these extraterrestrial objects can cause harm on earth and / or fall to earth or not, this is the current discussion.

And they claim the object is: (asteroid), hope this thing doesn't fall to earth and scientists also say if the thing really hits the earth all sectors of the internet, the earth's economy and facilities were destroyed, it took decades to restore it.
I hope this doesn't happen, it's terrible.

At this time, do not know what it is, because it is close to the sun and points to Earth's orbit.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: bits4books on November 07, 2020, 01:15:35 PM
Let's be honest, while countries/private corporations are not interested in space exploration so much that they will be hindered by space debris no one will do anything about it.
So catch a great business idea for now, the business of clearing the orbit from space debris. I am sure that the first person to do this will become one of the richest people on earth simply because the longer humanity lives the more garbage will appear in orbit.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: coolcoinz on November 07, 2020, 02:55:01 PM
Space junk cannot orbit Earth forever. It will either be pulled towards us or away from us into space. If it gets pulled towards it's going to burn in the atmosphere and if away we shouldn't really care. The only thing this junk can interfere with is orbital stations and satellites, but if that happens people will have to find a way to shield from the debris.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: Lorence.xD on November 08, 2020, 12:52:41 AM
Let's be honest, while countries/private corporations are not interested in space exploration so much that they will be hindered by space debris no one will do anything about it.
So catch a great business idea for now, the business of clearing the orbit from space debris. I am sure that the first person to do this will become one of the richest people on earth simply because the longer humanity lives the more garbage will appear in orbit.
That is what exactly this problem will make, new businesses. This time, it will be a race on who will be the first to come up with a practical and efficient solution to this profound problem. The pioneer cleaners will be swimming in money. There are solutions being developed and they are pretty sci-fi to be honest. If you watch Youtube video, they have there the proposed solutions.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: Lorence.xD on November 08, 2020, 01:51:52 AM
Space junk cannot orbit Earth forever. It will either be pulled towards us or away from us into space. If it gets pulled towards it's going to burn in the atmosphere and if away we shouldn't really care. The only thing this junk can interfere with is orbital stations and satellites, but if that happens people will have to find a way to shield from the debris.
If we wait for them to go down, it will take a long time and we will accumulate more space debris the more we neglect it. It is funny that you posted that we should wait it out, did you know that space debris orbit the LEO like satellites which means they will stay there for a long period of time. Have you seen the damage of a speck of space debris because it is moving at orbital speed which means when it comes in contact with a satellite, it will be an obliteration.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: fiulpro on November 08, 2020, 09:38:57 AM
One should understand the fact that taking all this debris out would cost millions , the only thing that can work is :

Don't leave things there in the first place.

I do believe that the space centers like Nasa are very capable of teaching this to their workers and implying this as a rule. Space Debris has been there for years and it could actually cause fatal accidents too.

The situation is already into consideration and the project OSCaR (full for : Obsolete Spacecraft Capture and Removal) is already on this , I read the news regarding this on google and if you are interested you can try and search for the project.

They are going to use inexpensive equipments and try and clear up the non useful materials revolving around earth. It does not even end there , they have to then find a proper way to not litter the earth too and dispose off these things safely. It's a two way project. If you are keeping space from littering you have to take care that this material is not thrown anywhere without any consideration and steps taken to ensure the safety of the material and recycle.!!


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: CarnagexD on November 08, 2020, 10:43:50 PM
This has been the issue with realizing the starlink program of Elon Musk, we have tons and tons of Space Junk floating around our Exosphere that we haven't even thought about on how to cleanup. Starlink's promise of uktra-fast internet speeds is ultimately undervalued considering the amount of costs and hazard the junks will cause in future space missions.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: Lorence.xD on November 09, 2020, 06:06:35 AM
This has been the issue with realizing the starlink program of Elon Musk, we have tons and tons of Space Junk floating around our Exosphere that we haven't even thought about on how to cleanup. Starlink's promise of uktra-fast internet speeds is ultimately undervalued considering the amount of costs and hazard the junks will cause in future space missions.
The most expensive space junks are those that are too small for eyes to see, they are by far the most dangerous because one hit from this micro space debris can be fatal for satellites or anything that comes its path. There are solution proposed and by far, shooting lasers in these micro space debris is the best call.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: yhiaali3 on November 09, 2020, 12:06:58 PM
Each time has different problems from the time that follows it and the time before it, before the space age and the satellites this problem did not exist and I think that scientists will definitely find a solution to it in the future.
This problem is really frightening. I have read that there are many industrial wastes around the Earth and their number exceeds the number of working devices and the most dangerous of all is the presence of explosive waste as a result of excess fuel and batteries on board rockets and old spacecraft.
I think that the big countries are aware of these risks and are working to find solutions and scientists are conducting research to do a project to try to collect space debris, but of course this requires heavy costs and international cooperation, especially from the rich countries.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: Hydrogen on November 09, 2020, 11:06:50 PM
Its been said the cost to transport one kilogram of cargo into orbit, is so overwhelmingly expensive. If the moon were composed of pure gold. It would cost more to mine and transport gold from the moon, than the gold would be worth. That rule of thumb is pre Elon Musk, pre Space X. But still holds true. Claims of asteroids with "quadrillion" size net worths of rare minerals and metals trend towards marketing hype, with cost to extract and transport not factored in.

NASA says here it costs $10,000 to launch 1 pound (0.45 kilograms) of payload into orbit:  https://www.nasa.gov/centers/marshall/news/background/facts/astp.html (https://www.nasa.gov/centers/marshall/news/background/facts/astp.html)

It could be more cost effective to salvage and repurpose space debris. Than it is to build new structures on the ground and blast them into space.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: Lorence.xD on November 10, 2020, 09:23:52 AM
Its been said the cost to transport one kilogram of cargo into orbit, is so overwhelmingly expensive. If the moon were composed of pure gold. It would cost more to mine and transport gold from the moon, than the gold would be worth. That rule of thumb is pre Elon Musk, pre Space X. But still holds true. Claims of asteroids with "quadrillion" size net worths of rare minerals and metals trend towards marketing hype, with cost to extract and transport not factored in.

NASA says here it costs $10,000 to launch 1 pound (0.45 kilograms) of payload into orbit:  https://www.nasa.gov/centers/marshall/news/background/facts/astp.html (https://www.nasa.gov/centers/marshall/news/background/facts/astp.html)

It could be more cost effective to salvage and repurpose space debris. Than it is to build new structures on the ground and blast them into space.
Most space debris are targeted to be that but the problem is the micro space debris that will have no recycling purposes, the clean up will be expensive but it will be worth it since we need as a civilization to advance further.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: DrG on November 10, 2020, 12:47:37 PM
Its been said the cost to transport one kilogram of cargo into orbit, is so overwhelmingly expensive. If the moon were composed of pure gold. It would cost more to mine and transport gold from the moon, than the gold would be worth. That rule of thumb is pre Elon Musk, pre Space X. But still holds true. Claims of asteroids with "quadrillion" size net worths of rare minerals and metals trend towards marketing hype, with cost to extract and transport not factored in.

NASA says here it costs $10,000 to launch 1 pound (0.45 kilograms) of payload into orbit:  https://www.nasa.gov/centers/marshall/news/background/facts/astp.html (https://www.nasa.gov/centers/marshall/news/background/facts/astp.html)

It could be more cost effective to salvage and repurpose space debris. Than it is to build new structures on the ground and blast them into space.

Most of the cost is human labor as there is essentially no mass production in rocketry up until this point. SpaceX has reduced the cost by essentially refurbishing all their rockets up to 10 tens (per Elon) but there's still no mass production. Give it another 10 or 20 years and you will see the cost lowered by several fold (probably not a magnitude) due to mass production of components and automation of many of the stages.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: Lorence.xD on November 11, 2020, 03:04:25 AM
Most of the cost is human labor as there is essentially no mass production in rocketry up until this point. SpaceX has reduced the cost by essentially refurbishing all their rockets up to 10 tens (per Elon) but there's still no mass production. Give it another 10 or 20 years and you will see the cost lowered by several fold (probably not a magnitude) due to mass production of components and automation of many of the stages.
Human labor is not a problem, if I am correct, they might use automation instead of human workforce, the human resource is almost alloted in scientists and researchers. The most expense will be on the material that they are going to use, since the scarcity of some materials like platinum. If we were to wait a decade or two, the problem will only get worse.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: DrG on November 11, 2020, 11:21:34 AM
Most of the cost is human labor as there is essentially no mass production in rocketry up until this point. SpaceX has reduced the cost by essentially refurbishing all their rockets up to 10 tens (per Elon) but there's still no mass production. Give it another 10 or 20 years and you will see the cost lowered by several fold (probably not a magnitude) due to mass production of components and automation of many of the stages.
Human labor is not a problem, if I am correct, they might use automation instead of human workforce, the human resource is almost alloted in scientists and researchers. The most expense will be on the material that they are going to use, since the scarcity of some materials like platinum. If we were to wait a decade or two, the problem will only get worse.

I volunteered at JPL and SpaceX is right next to my work. I can assure you that human labor is a bigger component than the actual materials. For something like the SR71 which had to use exotic alloys and needed new foundries created the materials costs were through the roof - Skunkworks admitted that the skin of the blackbird was responsible for much of the cost overrun. The current mindset of NASA JPL and SpaceX is to keep material costs down and reduce complexity to prevent failure - they would rather have cheaper successive missions that could only do 3 studies than 1 mission that does 9 and has a critical error and is a complete loss.

Elon launching SN8 which is basically a water silo with a rocket on the butt lol.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: mixerbtc on November 11, 2020, 01:41:15 PM
Now we get to see that governments and corporations don't really care about our well-being. Space debris is bound to lead to a lot of issues, as you've said. And nobody is really doing anything against it at a high level.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: Lorence.xD on November 12, 2020, 04:53:31 AM
Now we get to see that governments and corporations don't really care about our well-being. Space debris is bound to lead to a lot of issues, as you've said. And nobody is really doing anything against it at a high level.
Bureaucracy and government funding is the problem yes, but most of the research are still on its early phases which has skeptics on the side, one good funding and a go signal is only needed for this to go full scale. Do not worry, space agencies have a lot of persuasion power when it comes to this and governments know the trillion dollar space industry.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: coolcoinz on November 14, 2020, 02:36:16 PM
Space junk cannot orbit Earth forever. It will either be pulled towards us or away from us into space. If it gets pulled towards it's going to burn in the atmosphere and if away we shouldn't really care. The only thing this junk can interfere with is orbital stations and satellites, but if that happens people will have to find a way to shield from the debris.
If we wait for them to go down, it will take a long time and we will accumulate more space debris the more we neglect it. It is funny that you posted that we should wait it out, did you know that space debris orbit the LEO like satellites which means they will stay there for a long period of time. Have you seen the damage of a speck of space debris because it is moving at orbital speed which means when it comes in contact with a satellite, it will be an obliteration.

Yet we have so many satellites orbiting the Earth and let's not forget about the ISS. Why aren't they getting obliterated if the dust is so dangerous?
Honestly, I'll start worrying when there are real cases of spacecraft being destroyed by these specks of dust. AFAIK Elon is launching every month and none of his rockets were affected.


Title: Re: Space Debris: A Subtle Way to Doom Humanity
Post by: Vod on November 14, 2020, 10:50:34 PM
Ten years ago I made a video of the earth in peril - one of the scenes was the amount of debris in orbit. I also showed scenes of famine, climate change, viruses, and even an AI takeover.   I was an activist for a couple decades, but now there is no need to warn anymore.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Owk4nICQLi0

Luckily, we will have technology in the next five years that will be able to move/capture debris from orbit, so we won't be completely helpless for centuries.

Yet we have so many satellites orbiting the Earth and let's not forget about the ISS. Why aren't they getting obliterated if the dust is so dangerous?
Honestly, I'll start worrying when there are real cases of spacecraft being destroyed by these specks of dust. AFAIK Elon is launching every month and none of his rockets were affected.

The ISS takes damage all the time, mostly from specks of paint that come off the rockets.  They do emergency maneuvers often.

Just recently, one of Elon's rockets was on a collision course with a $400 million satellite, and SpaceX couldn't do anything.   The satellite had to move.