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Oil is cheap and oil reservers are full.

Countries have enough oil and before specially under bush regime world needed the USA dollar to Buy oil.  USA dollar was backed by oil.
Now this is the Question what is the other thing USA dollar need to use to stay as reserve currency with real value?
The oil is not in high demand... So what commoties they Will use what all the world need so badly that they need USA dollars?


My guess are that its the covid 19 vaccasines the New oil what can back up USA dollars.
But this covid vaccasines is not for ever so at some point demand Will end.... The USA need new thing then what the whole world will need from them?  Oil might not be since OPEC use euro and Russian rubles currency!


Whats your toughts?  Correct me of im wrong :)

The corona vaccine could maybe be traded as a commodity, but I don't think it will last for very long. Because many companies around the world should go into mass production. Also the denomination shouldn't be in USD because the vaccine is going to be produced everywhere. Biontech for example is a German company, so their cost is likely going to be in EUR. Pfizer is an international companies with laboratories all around the world.

Oil is not cheap everywhere. It's only cheap in certain countries. USA is ranked 39th when it comes to the prices of oil. Oil reserves are full ?
I do believe that by oil you mean things like : petrol which is something that we call : exhaustive resources, non-renewable resources.

- look at this information from ecotricity

*Now I don't get why you think that oil reserves are full and oil is cheap ?
I do believe it might be very specific for your particular county. Rest when we talk about backing up. I think that USD should be backed by things like: Gold, silver , stable-coins if you may. Cryptocurrencies- no since we need a certain degree of stability there.

It can also be backed up by the nations which are supporting USA. They can interrelate their economy and make it even more stronger. Who knows?? Just a small thought out of my mind.

The demand for the US dollar is falling, and Americans need to print less money to secure the value of the dollar. The impact of the pandemic is also an event to make Americans aware of the value of the dollar relative to the rest of the world. Even though there is a vaccine for COVID, the economy won't come back so easily as energy needs have decreased, so will economic activities, it will take time to adjust everything. follow an upward trajectory.

You are correct.
Vaccines will slow down in demands once countries already bought it and people are injected with it.
Newborns will be the next who will need it but I don't think that will be enough to keep the value.

Damn, you gave me a difficult time thinking about what could be their next step would be.
Is it possible that they will lean over the technology industry?

I find this to be unlikely, the reason is that many countries are developing their own vaccine especially those that oppose the US like Russia and China so they are not going to need the US dollar at all to make those purchases.

Also the market of oil is a big monopoly so in order to make the price to go up the producers could always reduce their production and increase the price of oil that way, it is really simple, by reducing their production the price increase offsets the loss they incurred by selling less oil and the best part is they keep the reserves high when the price rises naturally again once the pandemic is over.

The petrodollar is a thing, and the US dollar is of course the most powerful currency, however this is not linked to US oil production. Until recently the US was a net importer of oil, even today it's still basically neutral. Oil refineries in the US are for the most part unable to process oil produced in the US, so they need to import Saudi oil, in particular.

Oil is a volatile commodity, a small change in demand has an outsized impact on price. The world is still burning plenty of oil, and will continue to do so for decades, even if the trend is slowly downwards.

The loss of influence by the US is not really linked to this, but rather to deliberate actions by Donald Trump to make enemies out of allies, all over the world. Most countries would rather not be dependant on the US dollar if at all possible.

But the US doesn't have a vaccine. China has announced testing, Russia is already running third-stage tests-and in the United States, n-people are breaking down stores and electing a President who promises to raise taxes and increase the influx of migrants.
In terms of oil, everything is sad for them - from their own oil there is only shale production, which is very expensive and in such conditions it is much cheaper to buy oil from Russia/The UAE because even at a low price, they have nice ROI because of cheap oil production. In the United States the cost of oil production exceeds all reasonable figures.

Oil will always be associated with the US dollar.  When we look at the global market, all of the transactions are done with the oil / dollar binary.  for now there are more important things than oil.  Like Covid-19 vaccine studies.  When the world returns to the old normal, oil will return to its old days and reserves will decrease and replenish.  Games will be played on Iran and Iraq again.  Someone will die again and again and oil will be taken on the pretext of freedom.  But now there is an enemy who does not distinguish between rich and poor.  The common enemy of all humanity: Covid 19.If they defeat this common enemy, the rich and politicians will make the moves they want on the chessboard.

If it's the vaccine, it wouldn't even last a decade. Just after a few years through supplying the entire world with vaccine, what's next? although it will be in a continuous flow but demand would also gets lower.

How about gold? the new gold in this era which is data/information.

We are all hopeful for a cure for Covid19. A vaccine or a treatment that reduces their mortality is what we want as citizens of the world.
The economy is in decline, we advance little by little every day. The fact of having fewer economic activities makes us vulnerable. Virus outbreaks is a big concern because there will be fewer jobs.

There's no way this would be allowed to happen. It's medically unethical and the government wouldn't allow pandemic profiteering off the vaccine.  Not to mention that there is no system set up to trade a vaccine as a commodity like oil futures are.  I don't mind making the prediction that there's a zero percent chance of this happening.

It's hard to compare a Commodity to an actual product. Oil is necessary, while a vaccine is not (unless it's going to be required by the government). The vaccine cannot bring back the losses that it got during the pandemic, but oil can. As every country is going back to it's usually familiar, the oil demand might come back, but it cannot replenish, and the oil is depleting.

The best approach is still renewable energy and forms the new source of power for everyone In the world. Other concerns would be ideal to discuss, as well.

I think you taking it in wrong way while saying vaccine is new oil for USA. Although it's not since it won't be coming from USA but other countries like India, Europe who has the capability of mass production. Though it may be researched in the Europe or USA but it will be produced and distributed by Asian channels.

The dome of USA is falling at its worst and could lead to historical event.

Oil requirements are dropping since the world logistics, human traveling has dropped severely. Businesses are operating from the house itself so no need of the same.

Asian countries and specially India will benefit the most from covid vaccine.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production
https://ru.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cпиcoк_cтpaн_пo_дoбычe_нeфти
Even in 2014, the United States ranked 3rd in the world in oil production after Russia and Saudi Arabia.
I have no idea how badly the shutdown of US oil production will affect the unemployment rates in the country.
But I think it will cause a lot of other problems.

The price of fuel oil has dropped by less than half in a year due to the effects of the epidemic. But I don't think there is any difference between the dollar and the oil in the United States. Oil prices fluctuate on the basis of supply and demand theory at that time the supply of fuel oil was much higher around the world. Demand was lower than that and if the supply exceeds the demand the price goes down. According to media reports the difference in supply and demand is due to political reasons. At that time, the United States doubled its oil production despite being a major oil producer the United States imports oil all the time.

Oil was never the real reason why USA Dollar was the real reserve currency of the world and it really doesn't need oil prices to be high to be taken seriously. The reason was simply the fact that USA is a world power and dollar doesn't lose value as much as other currencies might. We know that UK pound may have been strong and it is not used as a reserve that badly neither, it is in many big portfolio, same goes for Euro as well even with many nations there going down with debt.

However USA is one nation that we know will do anything to keep their bottom dollar, they will always try to make capitalism work and they will always try to get richer, so putting your money into dollar was always a smart move regardless of what oil is doing at that current moment.

If you want to see how the law of supply and demand works in russia, then you are welcome. The price of 95 gasoline in russia at gas stations is 2 or more times more expensive than in those countries that buy oil from russia ;D
In America, prices at gas stations fall when oil becomes cheaper, in Russia, gasoline prices for the people only grow :)

That's because there are government controls on prices, and politicians play with it. In some other oil rich countries gas is very cheap or almost free, in the end it's the government subsidizing the price, nothing to do with free markets.

And what are the prices for gas and petrol in the USA for the population?
95 gasoline in Russia costs $ 0.57 per liter($ 2.16 per gallon,  if in 1 gallon 3.785 liters)
1000 cubic meters of gas costs $ 88

There are very good statistics for Europe and Russia on this site, but you will have to use a translator
https://svspb.net/novosti/stoimosti-gaza/

The pandemic lowers the demand for the Oil and since many countries are on the hard lockdown, it affect so much this industry and there's a lot of reserves right now that make Oil a lot cheaper compare before. In my country a bigger oil company are already announced that they will stop their operation in one of their big refinery and that is because of this pandemic. We are all waiting for the vaccine and for sure everything will recover when this pandemic is over.

Dollar is not only suitable for oil puchases, still a lot of companies in the world use it for any kind of payments. Oil situaiton is not enough to cause big problems with dollar

Has anyone noticed the jump in crude oil prices after Biden won the elections? Brent crude was trading at $38 per barrel before the elections and now this has jumped to $43.50 per barrel. The industry expects Biden to crack down on US shale oil production and this is going to benefit the OPEC nations. Also, if this happens then US might be forced to import more crude oil from the middle-east. In the long-term, I expect the crude prices to rise to three digit levels. 

If oil costs more than $ 100, then a financial paradise will begin in Russia :) If you are talking about the prospect of 10-20 years, then I agree with you,
because every year it is more difficult to extract oil and its price will rise.
But I saw Biden's interview where he said that he would not prohibit the production of shale oil.

Even in the US it varies widely, depending on local taxes and also where refineries are. 1 year ago I did a road trip in California and I paid between 3,8$ and 4,5$ a gallon, much more than I expected, which wasn't good news since I rented a gas guzzling V8 SUV !

No wonder Teslas sell a lot, there.


The green new deal plan (or similar, see also what's happening in Europe) has a goal of using less and less oil every year. Imagine when all cars will be electric in 10-15 years, planes flying on hydrogen, etc. Why would oil be expensive if there is less and less demand ?

I expect though that buying oil will be expensive, because there will be a carbon tax on it, but that money won't go to the oil companies. Several oil companies see the writing on the wall and are investing in renewable energy, for example French oil giant Total is building thousands of windmills and large solar farms !

Obviously countries such as Russia are heavily dependent on oil revenues and the cheap shale oil from the United States was responsible for the economic downturn in these countries since 2014-15. Earlier the cost of production of shale oil was around $80 per barrel. But with modern technology, this has been reduced to $30-$40 per barrel. So unless there is some restriction on shale oil production, the prices won't go to the previous levels.

I think I am getting your point here but the covid19 vaccine is not a joke and not only the US economy wanting it to be created for their are many countries racing in the making of these vaccines. These different countries are represented by different fiat currencies and that US dollars could not really be mean a back by only oils but it is the economy of the USA. The assets and the large contributing development are the one that makes the real value of US dollars. Besides it was the middle east countries that are having reservr money through oils. Hopefully oil sources coulr be replenish for if it not then high chance we will going to face a real problem in the future without these resources to which almost commodities uses oil.

The economy is a driving force that rises and falls. Its rise and fall depend on many materials not just dollars or oil. Before the discovery of oil, the Arab countries were zero. They are holding the market from oil and from the US dollar. Whether the COVID 19 vaccine enters the market or not, the world economy is gradually coming out of the negative effects. In that case they can use other currencies if they do not get dollars. The next time is very important for America.

That is the next era. By January 2021, America will have a new government to take them through the next four years and this era looks important because there are many factors that may change the economy of different nations. Oil lately is not steady and that is a determining factor for economic growth of producing countries depending on how they manage it and the influence of regulating blocs which America can be influential in their policies. Also bitcoin is growing plus halving and whether ETF is going to be effective or not can also be influenced by America. So it is a year that America need to have a public policy that is more active .

It is probably too early to talk about getting out of the negative consequences, given that the number of States that impose partial or even full quarantine on their territory is growing again and it is completely unclear when all this will end. There is also no confidence that the upcoming pre-Christmas period, which provided a significant increase in trade turnover and provided the lion's share of annual income for small businesses, will now be able to show comparable results. Despite some support from the state, the service sector is in a difficult situation and not all subjects of the sphere will be able to survive the pandemic.

it is still in high demand, don't look at its price and don't let that fool you. the price was artificially brought down as part of the cold war that has been going on in middle east to damage the economy of the countries that rely on selling their oil.

Either USA will up their game to pillage more lands in hopes of finding oil or they will have a big problem with their oil-based economy. That being said, it's going to be a big problem to either side of the issue. Especially now that Electric vehicles are gaining more and more traction to the market. As long as they change their currency basis, they shouldn't have a problem.

CarnagexD : you mean the Lithium dollar ? :d The US economy isn't really based on oil, they burn too much of it yes, but it's not mandatory. What brings money in these days in the US is technology, entertainment, medicine...


What do you mean by cold war ? Wars in the ME usually make the price of oil go up not down. Oil is needed at a high level, but that level is lower than it was, and much lower than potential production, that's the issue : overproduction.

While this is outdated data, the US is now the largest oil producer in the world. The shutdown will very greatly affect US employment numbers, as a ton of jobs have been created through the new energy boom, and this has ripple effects of creating more jobs around that industry that further ripples throughout the economy.  A loss of jobs in the single biggest employment gainer will have far-reaching consequences for employment numbers in unrelated industries even.

It doesn't seem as if the world is ever going to return to normal, for what I have read it seems the vaccine could offer protection for one year and that's it, which means that people will have to apply the vaccine every single year and in my experience very few people have that kind of discipline.

Also just because the price of oil has for the most part be associated with the US dollar that doesn't mean that is going to keep being the case, many countries want to change this and when that happens I'll not be surprised if they begin to accept their own currencies in exchange for oil or even gold in exchange for oil.

USA is exporting more food and beverages than they do oil and the world is changing as we will be migrating to cleaner energy in the near future and we might not need oil in the next 10 to 20 years as all the vehicles will be migrating to electric and we will use much lesser oil. Another big selling point is their aircraft manufacturing sector as well as the weapons sector and then the Pharmaceutical industry.

Experts say the future will be in gas-powered vehicles. Gas engines are more environmentally friendly and the combustion of gas produces fewer harmful substances to the atmosphere. In colder climates, battery life is greatly reduced and therefore requires expensive equipment to recharge vehicles. Now in the world electric cars are less than 1%, but what will happen when the number increases to 20-30%?

The problem USA has in its production is the cost to extract is much higher then Saudi Arabia.   OPEC can force other markets out by dropping the price as they have the lowest costs to produce and a great quantity.   USA isnt in quite the same fix as Venezuela which has great reserves but too high a cost  to produce (then also refine also) but its bad enough to close down a quarter maybe half the total production because its no longer profitable in the longer term.    The correct course for USA would be in reducing its own consumption of oil, if legislation favored cars to use natural gas as fuel it would allow USA to export more oil instead I believe there is still a net import despite the large amount of production.
   Its worth noting Russia has a greatly aging range of oil fields in the main and suffers from similar difficulties in costs also, however they do not use up as much energy as USA so can balance trade more easily and this helps their currency in some support.

I think your experts are paid by the oil industry... Never heard someone call internal combustion engines "environmentally friendly" ah ah. Electric cars don't send anything to the atmosphere, even during production, so there is no contest there. Of course you must improve electricity production, if you have only dirty coal plants, it doesn't work, but coal plants are also being rapidly replaced...

For cold climates there are various solutions, including hydrogen fuel cells. Still an electric car, but no battery (in fact there is a small battery, like an hybrid).

When the supply is more then the demand will be decreased. The downfall of USA dollar is mainly indicates that stop printing money, the less supply can increase the demand. The modern world can't think without electricity and oil. Without oil, industry can't be formed well. Ultimately people will suffer a lot. Covid-19 is another way by which many people are trying to do business with us in many ways. This the real scenario of the world.

Petroldollar empire is in decline period. If FED keep print dollar from nowhere, US dollar will devaluation till it reach bottom. I don't think Covid-19 vaccine is a good for baking up dollar because many contries are research it and they have achieved certain success.
The best thing to do to keep petroldollar of US government is prevent Russia, Iran and Venezuela from trading petrol without dollar and buy as much gold as they can.

I'm not convinced of this at all, and I'm invested in a company that produces LNG and CNG for vehicles, so I would love for natural gas to have a bigger future for vehicles. Unfortunately, I just don't see it happening. The future will be electric. There is almost no market for passenger cars to use natural gas. The future is electric for sure. Natural gas is cheaper and cleaner than diesel, and just about the only types of vehicles that use it are heavy duty trucks. Due to battery range limitations, this may be the only advantage it has over electricity for trucking, but if we get big advancements in battery range this will be a big a big threat to the only place that natural gas is currently used.

Weird thing is, when companies start to pump up covid vaccines like candy when they are ready and spreading it all over the world, they will charge the highest prices in USA for sure and that will not help USA but hurt them like crazy. These pharma companies have corporations in many different nations so that means if they sell you a vaccine in Germany they pay taxes to Germany, if they sell it in USA they pay taxes in USA, if they sell it in nation X they will pay it at nation X and so forth.

These mean combine the fact that it will be cheap everywhere else and pay taxes there and it will be expensive in USA and hurt peoples economies there (this is the same nation that has people who can't even afford insulin which is free in almost everywhere) I think it will hurt USA more than it helps them.

As far as I know electric cars require a great deal of rare materials, if true, can electric cars become cheap enough for the average person to buy taking into account how rare those materials are? Do we have even enough material to create that many cars? Those are valid questions in my opinion, I will love for the current technology that cars use to be replaced by something more friendly to the environment but despite all the promises it doesn't seem as if it is going to happen that soon.

Besides experts are too positive when they make their predictions after all we need to take into account that many people are not going to have the money to replace their cars with new ones even if they have a better performance.