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Poker by far is my favorite when it comes to gambling, it is a good mixture of skill with the ability to bluff other players to the point that you can win a zilch even though he got a better hand, and luck by the probability of getting the better hand than your opponents. In this post, I will focus on the probability of getting a higher hand. The table below only presents 5-card hand poker game. If you are curious as to what is the math behind poker, hopefully this post will satisfy you.

|

Hand

|

Distinc Hands

|

Frequency

|

Probability

|

Cumulative Probability

|

Odds Against

|

|

Royal Flush

|

1

|

4

|

0.000154%

|

0.000154%

|

649,738:1

|

|

Straight Flush

|

9

|

36

|

0.00139%

|

0.0015%

|

72,192 1/3:1

|

|

Four of a Kind

|

156

|

624

|

0.0240%

|

0.0256%

|

4,156:1

|

|

Full House

|

156

|

3,744

|

0.1441%

|

0.17%

|

693.17:1

|

|

Flush

|

1,277

|

5,108

|

0.1965%

|

0.367%

|

508.8:1

|

|

Straight

|

10

|

10,200

|

0.3925%

|

0.76%

|

253.8:1

|

|

Three of a Kind

|

858

|

54,912

|

2.1128%

|

2.87%

|

46.33:1

|

|

Two Pair

|

858

|

123,552

|

4.7539%

|

7.62%

|

20:1

|

|

One Pair

|

2,860

|

1,098,240

|

42.2569%

|

49.9%

|

1.366:1

|

|

No Pair/High Card

|

1,277

|

1,302,540

|

50.1177%

|

100%

|

0.995:1

|

Additional Notes
Cumulative probability refers to the probability of drawing a hand as good as or better than the specified one. For example, the probability of drawing three of a kind is approximately 2.11%, while the probability of drawing a hand at least as good as three of a kind is about 2.87%. The cumulative probability is determined by adding one hand's probability with the probabilities of all hands above it.
Odds are defined as the ratio of the number of ways not to draw the hand, to the number of ways to draw it. In statistics, this is called odds against. For instance, with a royal flush, there are 4 ways to draw one, and 2,598,956 ways to draw something else, so the odds against drawing a royal flush are 2,598,956 : 4, or 649,739 : 1. The formula for establishing the odds can also be stated as (1/p) - 1 : 1, where p is the aforementioned probability.
Straight Flush is different from Royal Flush which is comprised of 10, Jack, Queen, King and Ace while the former is comprised of the other card numbers.
Flush is different from Straight Flush and Royal Flush where Straight Flush and Royal Flush has a condition that there is a order of cards of the same suit whereas Flush just needs to have the same suit.
Straight is different from Straight Flush and Royal Flush where both has the condition of Same suit and order for both hands, Straight on the other hand just needs to be in order even if not the same suit.

Source:https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Poker_probability

This is a great example that chances to have 4 of a kind is really low.However it shows that the more down we come like one pair or two pairs chances are generally pretty high.Beside these statements which I think everyone should copy to a notepad or word document to keep always present during poker gameplays let’s also not forget that also skill and patience also play a big role if you want to be a successful poker player.

Great summary of the chances to good poker hands. I played poker for a long time and never got a royal flush, I have seen a few and managed to get a few straight flushes over the years myself. 4 of a kind is the best in my opinion. If there are 3 times the same card on the board no one really thinks of a 4 of kind. Most people would expect someone to have a full house. These are the setups where you can earn a fortune in cash games. To make money when playing poker you want your opponent to have a good hand so he calls you down and then of course you need to have the better hand.

The math is pretty straight forward for sure. What deceives us is how people manage to see only the highlights of poker games and see the "legendary hands" and think that it's always going to be possible, but obviously, the math doesn't lie. It's just by luck to really get that strong hand.

Do you think the professional poker players memorized this? Does this increase the chances of determining the correct hands of the other players?

In my opinion, professional players focus more on the skill side of the game more than the maths. The reason for that is that they do not have a control of the card stack, unless there is something underhanded happening then things will be different. So my answer to your question is no, they do not memorize this table but they do know about it for sure, they just don't pay it heed and I do not think it raises the chance of determining the other players hand except Negreneau, that dude seems to have x-ray vision.

Well, the math is pretty straightforward tbh. It's also rather easy to understand since the truth that numbers don't lie is oddly the truth in most luck-based games. Just that said numbers can go on and on until it meets the said odds, so it isn't really a helpful notion to rely on at times. Heck, it shouldn't even be used as a basis whenever playing since knowing doesn't really help in bringing those cards into your hand or into the table. Most players would rather learn how to bluff or learn how to decide when to fold or whatnot. Social Engineering/Human Engineering would be the term I'd use if I was asked what it is.

This is why I never win playing with poker, bad odds, bad at bluffing ain't got no future for this game lol.

Surely they don't memorize this in order to increase your chance of winning. I've watched some poker matches where the poorest hands are able to get the other player with better cards to fold with their bluffing skills. Even Kevin Hart did it succesfuly. The odds will be the same no matter how you memorize this table, it's a mix game of skill and luck as OP said, skills to bluff and luck for cards, that's what makes you win poker base on what I learn from watching videos and reading OPs post.

Thanks for sharing this. Remembering the odds is very important to assess how good your hand is and how likely someone else is to have a better one. I found this data  (https://ctools.ece.utah.edu/Probability/Combinatorics/ProbCombEx15.pdf)and while the probabilities are strikingly close, there's a tiny difference. Could you or someone else explain why?
I wondered some time ago whether the following improvement to poker websites could be implemented: each player sees the probability of her/his hand and the probability of someone else having a better one. Can this be properly counted, taking into account not the cards which are open on the table and those the player currently holds? Would it be useful?

I'd disagree with this. Whilst we can calculate the static odds of a certain hand, it is extremely difficult to calculate on-the-fly, in the middle of a game, what your chances are of getting a certain hand - and of other players getting certain hands. The people-reading is certainly a key part of being a successful player, but the ability to even approximate the odds in the middle of a game is a vital vital skill. I think I'm an okay poker player, not bad but not great, and I do try to estimate very rough odds whilst games are in progress - it is an extremely difficult challenge.



I think this is a cheat, really, I'd not be in favour as it takes away some of the player's expertise. It's like if there was also an on-screen counter showing running percentages of how often each player has bluffed.

I'm also like that when I started.
Once you play more experience will teach you.
You can also copy how other players bluff. Somehow, it works too. It's a battle of non-blinking eyes with smiles of evil intent.  ;D

OP, great post. Thanks for the numbers. I don't really rely much on this but it may help once in a while.
Will be keeping this in my notes. 

Not sure if people will find it useful, but I've expanded that table to include how likely each hand is compared to the immediately better hand (in the row above) and to all  better hands (all rows above).
We can see for example that the biggest jump in likelihood is Four of a Kind, which is x17 more likely than a Straight Flush, and x15.6 more likely than any better hand (Straight Flush or Royal Flush).
It's interesting to note that High Card is roughly as likely as all better hands... so everything being equal, if you have High Card and you're playing against a single opponent, it's roughly 50-50 whether he is also relying on High Card.

Hand    |	Distinct Hands |	Frequency |	Times more Likely than Above Hand |	Cum Freq |	Times more Likely than ALL Above Hands
Royal Flush	1	4		4
Straight Flush	9	36	9.0	40	9
Four of a Kind	156	624	17.3	664	15.6
Full House	156	3744	6.0	4408	5.6
Flush	1277	5108	1.4	9516	1.16
Straight	10	10200	2.0	19716	1.07
Three of a Kind	858	54912	5.4	74628	2.8
Two Pair	858	123552	2.3	198180	1.7
One Pair	2860	1098240	8.9	1296420	5.5
No Pair/High Card	1277	1302540	1.2	2598960	1.0

to be honest, i've seen that table calculation since 2016 , and for sure, its not helping much. since its back to your mentality as well, low pair card got raise by 1/2 total chips, i just folded, eventhough i know chance for get 3 of kind or two pair is close already.

This is why I feel poker is one the best card game out there. different people have different gameplay for what card they would get every round which what makes it exciting.

@OP I hope you don't mind or find it negative but I fixed the table to make it cleaner than the current one on the original post. you can just copy the table and post it on the OP. great Idea btw. showing the probability of getting a higher hand.

|

Hand

|

Distinc Hands

|

Frequency

|

Probability

|

Cumulative Probability

|

Odds Against

|

|

Royal Flush

|

1

|

4

|

0.000154%

|

0.000154%

|

649,738:1

|

|

Straight Flush

|

9

|

36

|

0.00139%

|

0.0015%

|

72,192 1/3:1

|

|

Four of a Kind

|

156

|

624

|

0.0240%

|

0.0256%

|

4,156:1

|

|

Full House

|

156

|

3,744

|

0.1441%

|

0.17%

|

693.17:1

|

|

Flush

|

1,277

|

5,108

|

0.1965%

|

0.367%

|

508.8:1

|

|

Straight

|

10

|

10,200

|

0.3925%

|

0.76%

|

253.8:1

|

|

Three of a Kind

|

858

|

54,912

|

2.1128%

|

2.87%

|

46.33:1

|

|

Two Pair

|

858

|

123,552

|

4.7539%

|

7.62%

|

20:1

|

|

One Pair

|

2,860

|

1,098,240

|

42.2569%

|

49.9%

|

1.366:1

|

|

No Pair/High Card

|

1,277

|

1,302,540

|

50.1177%

|

100%

|

0.995:1

|

Appreciate the help, wanted to that in the first place but I am new to doing tables in my posts. I edited it out.
That is what I love about poker, besides the math behind the game. The battle of attrition when it comes to emotion is what makes this game exciting, it also helps you sharpen your people reading skill. You don't have to rely on this, my goal for this post is to show the probability behind my/our beloved game, even professional don't pay no heed so you can sure that you are not doing something wrong.

Thanks for the share OP.

I learned poker and successfully improved my strategy as I progress but I'm not aware of that. :D

But yes, just to show the probability of numbers about this game.


Even they somehow know the probability to win, the key to win is proper execution. That's why even with good cards, it's not an assurance of an easy win.

That's correct. Professional poker players do not just automatically fold if they have very poor hands. As always mentioned, poker games are not just about luck. If you are given 3 of diamonds and 9 of hearts, it doesn't mean you no longer have to play the game. But they must also have rough ideas as to their opponent cards.

I play poker but not competitively and I'm not a professional. But to see this stats about the cumulative probability, it makes sense as to why I always get the high card. From my experience, a kicker can change the result and can beat a confident player.

It's one of the most exciting card to have especially if only two guys are remaining are on that phase. You can win with the weakest card that you have by simply bluffing, that's all. I mostly bluff if my cards are weak, it's fun yet there are also good players that you can't scare.

I saw his masterclass in an ad and it seems pretty convincing to learn how he does stuff. Knowing that he has achievements and titles to brag about, he is a very good player. I guess he just played so much that he knows instinctively what the other players "could" have. It's still a matter of experience for sure.

---

That's the best and important skill that you can have, the best poker face in the world. Making you hard to read and never reveal your true emotion. It's possible that they know it in a different way, like the possible hands that players could have.

---

That's just the "Fundamentals Of" the game. Lol. It includes the bluffing part and making them know that you have an amazing hand. Do your best in risk-taking, right? Show it and sell it.

That's true but it varies in different situation. Just like on Poker All Star table. They all know each other that they are all Pro, so bluffing to a master that knows the probability like Daniel and Phil Ivy will not gonna work because this guy surely eat alive the bluffer if they really holding the strong hand.

I know many user above considering the bluffing in poker because it is what always see during the highlights, But in reality, the chance that you can see a bluff is very rare in real poker scene because once you caught bluffing, You never use that again on same table or else you will burn. Most of the poker player memorized the probability that's why they can easily assess whether they will still call or not.

Try to watch full poker tourney. Pro usually fold when they have a very weak hands. They didn't even consider to bluff.  :D

Hehe this is not really the case when the minimum bet to start the round are quite high. I would probably agree with your statement if they will just call or check and nobody else raises but that rarely happens in a professional tournament does it? I've watched some live actions before and cards like that are usually folded in an instant.

This.

You must be overconfident in doing these, a do-or-die decision,  so as not to give your opponent to think that your bluffing.  ;D


Sometimes this is more of a psychological game, but if you are good at analyzing those cards you may have a better chance of winning. The more cards are open, the better the probability that you can compare with your on hand and determine the odds for winning. Skill and luck is really a deadly ingredient combination to win.

It is really the execution that can help us to win in poker, I prefer to play poker in real life where it considered as traditional gambling because you are playing physically. The excitement and the feeling is really different for me because I also play poker in different gambling sites where I considered as boring because I do not feel the excitement that I felt playing it physically. When you are playing in real life, you can observe your opponent’s where it can give you an idea on what they are thinking and what cards are they holding. I actually like the thread because this is also the first time for me to see and understand the probability where in you can considered as lucky even though your cards is just a full house because the probability of getting it is just 0.17%  :o

The "just" has now triggered me ;)
I like to play poker both in real life and online, and I can count the hands I've lost on a full house on one hand.

Of course, there is still the chance that someone has an even better hand, but the probability is extremely low. So a Full House is almost a guaranteed win of a round.

I am not so sure about that. If all players have this option, they can all be relieved by using it. If it makes poker too easy, it means that the best poker players are bots because real people have to put lots of effort into memorizing what's going on in the game and keeping in mind the odds of different hands, whereas a bot could store such data without many difficulties. This would make poker a lot like chess, and I don't think it's true. If a person knows the odds, it doesn't make the game too easy to play or too obvious. We play dice very differently, for instance, even though we always know what are the odds of us losing.

nah , i will not take a risk, before, I was also the one who bluffed a lot, even with bad card, but i just learned from youtube how to play safety, since i just play on tournament, its kinda funny if u just playing for 5 minutes on tournament.

I do agree with full house guaranteeing a win, the other upper hand cards are more rare to show on a player's hands, most of the time, the only hands that can defeat a full house is another higher card full house.

In live poker you can easily determined if the cards of your enemy is better than you just for example you are holding a full house and yout enemy is holding a higher full house than you, you can easily know if it is a higher or just a bluff, unlike online poker you can't read the face of your enemy, just the call or re-raise of the enemy will determined if it is a bluff or not. Anyways, if you are holding a full house, for us gamblers we can assured that full house is already a sure win set of cards in poker, unless it would be a fish or "katkong" in tagalog if they have a higher full house or set of cards than you have.

I take it that table is talking about getting those hands at the flop if you play Texas Holdem or before discarding if you play 5-card draw.

One thing I've learned over the years is that unlikely events occur.

The likelihood of those hands is not as important as how strong is your hand compared to your rival's.

According to the table, a straight has 0.3925% chance to occur and a flopped flush 0.1965%. I see flopped straights or flushes almost every day.

If you play a couple of thousand hands a day on average you are going to see a lot of those unlikely events to occur.

That's great,but what's the point of sharing this info.Do you want to teach us how to play poker? ;D
Did you copy pasted this info from somewhere?Can you mention the source?
I'm not interested in math and I don't care about the probability of getting a particular hand,when I play poker."Psychological" elements like having patience,persistence,and the ability to decide when to play aggressively and when to quit and the the ability to bluff are more interesting to me.

Just wanted to share this info to others who might be curious about the math behind poker, obviously you are not one of them. The source is copied in Wikipedia, not many goes to search there so I had an inkling to search it and share it as some might be interested in it. There is an article about psychological elements of poker if I am right, you can search for it.

I think you have a nice share here, math behind poker, but it's just a half of the story, or to say one side of the poker! Psychology is the other part, and to have a complete story you should include it in your post!
Math is easy to handle, you learn your odds pretty fast! But when in comes to live game with other people, in some hand's psychology is more important than math!
Steamtyme, tokeweed, figmentofmyass and a few others have awesome conversation about poker, with deep analyzes of poker strategies, some hands and how you should play them! https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5214582.msg53510089#msg53510089 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5214582.msg53510089#msg53510089)
It's a long thread, but who wish to learn more about poker and how to play it should read it! Good luck people and join bitcointalk private series: https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5288276.0 (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5288276.0)

Very interesting topic, thank you for posting it.
But what are your sources for those probabilities please? Is it a personal work? Did you count them yourself? If it's a personal observation they are maybe not totally universal

he didnt add sources . this can only be his personal observation but i can say that his observation is close to being accurate because that is what i observed too whenever i play poker .
its hard to get a good combination but its easy to get a common cards or bad combination .
 i played poker and card games on a crypto casino and on the side they will put the probability for each card and combination , theres no major difference from this table made by op .

There are many courses online to learn how to play poker. There are plenty of different poker variants out there and you also need to decide if you want to go into tournaments or prefer cash games. Watching a few tutorials online from YouTube can definitely help to make up your mind. But in my opinion to really learn a game you will need to put in the hours and actually play. Maybe try with play money first.

I really suck in uderstanding this kind of of probability even if I love playing poker though in my cases I am not into 5 cards instead I am into 2 cards only.

So I guess, I cannot use this probability to my advantage but if it can be applied also to 2 cards then I will try my best to understand it and use it to my  advantage if possible. But I am hoping that I will not get any headache before I can understand how I can get an advantage by understanding these probability as  there are percentage that I am having a difficulty in understanding.

And the water is warm, yes?  ;D

You can not copy this, you can count it by yourself in your head. For example, 4 of a kind.
we have 13 denominations, How many ways we can choose one of it? Pretty obvious answer - 13 ways.
And how many ways we can choose 3 another cards of the same denomination from number of cards which left? This is binomial coefficient, C(48, 3)

And our probability will be the multiply of 13 * C(48, 3) divided by all possible combinations (this also will be binomial coefficient or combination of k sets from n set, where n = 52 and k = 5) C(52, 5).

And you will get needed probability. Looks a little complicated, but after you will handle such powerfull theory you will be able to count probabilities with more practical view, for example what a probability to get two cards of the same denomination if you already has 2 on your hands  :)

Have you made any charts around opening hands and perhaps relative position.

Sort of ranges. Maybe I am not explaining t very well.

I know it still depends what everyone else does and I don't even repeat myself if I can.

The bad beats you listed, happen, but like mentioned all to often it I someone going in with k7 and they hit 3 sevens  :/


Cheers

Poker is really the most interesting gambling game in my opinion, with the exception of guessing the price of Bitcoin (joke). When I saw this topic, I thought I would find something interesting in it, but you just copied part of the article posted on Wikipedia.
I think you needed to add something else from yourself. What do you think?

Looking at the numbers I think there's nothing more to add, as I play poker on different apps, threse numbers speaks so loud in my ears, all of the chances are quite right in my opinion. Besides it doesn't matter to me as long as I can bluff my own way to winning 😅

I'm not really interested in which combination comes out more often and which less often. I'm more interested in why everyone discards their cards when I have 2 aces and I'm ready to go all the way.
Sometimes I think that my opponents see my cards, or everything is just easy to read on my face))

This is a nice summary. At least it makes it clearer for us why the hierarchy of hands. It is all about probability and frequency and therefore the odds as well. This explains why a full house is stronger than a flush or why a flush is stronger than a straight and so on. From it, you can somehow gauge your hand's winning or losing probability against your opponents' possible hands. To a certain extent, the art of bluffing in poker proves lacking when confronted with luck and proper analysis.

Maybe it falls on the psychology aspect of poker. Maybe you are too aggreessive in a way that players give away the hand you might have. I think that in 7 card poker this is a strategy where you fold your hand if you are not one of the blinds unless you have a really good hands. Train on your poker face and wear as much accesory like sunglasses that does not reflect or a cap to hide some minute details that might give you away.

Knowing these probabilities might be helpful to assess your exact chances of beating the opponent, however, I don't see much point in memorizing or copying them somewhere and keeping in sight during the game (maybe if you're a beginner). The thing is - if you're a regular player you realize all that intuitively. For instance, I never had a clue what's the probability of being dealt a pair or three of a kind, but it has always been obvious that the latter one is much cooler :D

On the contrary, I think that some kind of dynamic probabilities may come in handy. I mean some kind of guides or calculators (even better) that would show you how the probabilities of holding a certain card will change depending on your decisions (especially useful when you decide whether or not to discard your cards, and if yes - which ones), because in this case, things might be less apparent. Sadly, I've never seen anything of the like.

It was not my intent in the first place, I posted it here because I want to see if there are other people that might be curious behind the math that is happening when they are playing poker. I do believe too that there isn't a need to analyze it on this level. I do not think that they will allow this table to show on games because anything that has numbers and percentages are eyebrow raising, does not matter if it helps or not, it will be a problem in game. They are using this probability calculator on poker games, especially the tournament ones for the viewers to see whether the player has the advantage or not.

Remember that sometimes it doesn't depends solely on the cards sometimes bluffing and other strategies do matter on most of the circumstances. I don't have to memorize all of this too but it comes in handy if you're that genius or if you have much time thinking what are the other cards of your opponent is holding which I think is very rare to happen.

I don't even know how to used the mathematical probability of playing a poker cards. What i know was that you should have the smallest amount of cards in hand to be able to win the game. Well it so happen that sometimes or even always you may get a set of cards where you can't make a set of flush, royal, or straight plus and this is where you can apply your strategies and tactics to manipulate your card that's why memorizing of all of this might not useful to me.

im not a poker player but i think that you dont need to memorize this because you cant apply it in the game , he was only showing the probability of getting those combi and probability can change too so even if you memorize it for unknown reason you may notice that the combi can come early or come late because this is gambling and the cards are being shuffled .

using tricks in poker may help you win but you wont still know if what are your opponents card and if what card is he going to throw

Poker may be a sort of card gambling but is usually considered a skill based game betting is an important a part of all kinds of poker games and therefore the winner of every hand is decided consistent with the player's card with a minimum of a number of the hand hidden until the top of the sport. Poker games vary within the number of cards the amount of shared or community cards the amount of hidden cards the tactic of betting basically this is often what keeps a player in his game longer because he assumes that his chances of winning aren't over yet.

If you think that playing poker will be hard for you, you don't have to try to play it. Learning poker is not easy because you need to know how to make a match of the card. I don't know about the poker game, so I don't play that game, but what I believe in a poker game is if you know the game better than the other people, you will have more chance to win because you can have a good card from the other player.

Hey, don't scare away the newbies :D

Poker rules aren't that hard, after all, I've learned to play five-card poker at the age of 11 and even then it didn't seem like something complex. After a while, I tried taking part in poker tournaments, but they were mostly Texas Hold'em and I wasn't familiar with the rules. Even though in tournaments everything happens quickly and you have to think fast I got the hang of things after 3-4 games. The best way to learn something - is to learn it through practice, imo.

They have this quote in poker, " don't bluff the fools " which literally says the thing with not so much a player of poker, bluffing them might just result to your end coz they understand less of the bluffing strategies. But in cases like professional poker, psychology that includes gestures and eye contact is the most crucial but most effective one. This is why I love poker   :D

Whenever I play poker, I play safe most of the time, don't be a wishful thinker coz it will ruin you almost everytime. You just have to be wary of the in and outs from the card.

To be more safe, practice playing with your friends so you have a control to what happens, the people that I have played with are okay with just enjoying the game without the problem of money, we have some casino chips laying around and we distributed those equally and played the game, most of the time Chinese poker is what we play but poker is enjoyable.

It reminds me that the first time I saw poker games looked very complicated, but after practicing for just a few hours it turns out
that it is not that difficult to learn mathematical probability. Because the game of poker is based on skills, so don't be lazy to practice.
My weakness in playing poker is not being able to control emotions, so that makes me often experience losses when playing poker.

Emotions are a recipe for losses in poker. The moment you are beginning to shake or show some signs of doubt is the time your opponent reads you very clearly. They will play on you.

You actually don't have to learn mathematical probability in poker. If you are already familiar with cards, their numbers, and their patterns, and have been playing card games, you can easily understand why certain hands are stronger than others, how your hand would match against other possible hands, and why your hand is probably winning or losing.

Hahaha, I am not scary them, but that is the fact that they need to know, so they don't feel bad if they are lost. If they can learn about poker better than other people, they will have a chance to bluff and win the game.

But I think that is hard for me. Maybe that is because I don't want to learn or know how to play the poker game. My friends who teach me about poker game tell me that I am not good at learning poker, so they suggest that I play simple gambling games that are not complicated to understand.

This is absolutely true. Personally I think I am a good poker player when playing for low stakes. But playing for high stakes, even though I know that rationally it's exactly the same, I find myself being too risk-averse, and probably—although it's obviously difficult for me to tell—quite easy to read.

You might experiencing something in the realm of Sudden Wealth Syndrome, it isn't exactly the same but the nerves that are getting you is similar in a way. I think a good training to steel your nerves is what is best for you, constant exposure to high stakes game and playing in the is an expensive yet effective training, meditation by far is the best you can do if you want to acquire a steel nerve.

That's so me as well. If I play with close friends, I think I am very hard to read. I can easily show my best poker face. I can smile widely and bluff my way even though I don't have even a pair. I don't shake also. But when I play with other people who I don't personally know and especially if the buy-in is particularly high, it's like the game is becoming serious and I grow more conscious and easy to read.

these odds are useful to knows how much is probable a certain set of cards.
for a certain point of view this explain how poker is a math game, where you should always calculate odds probability ecc ecc for several hours in a tournament!
At a certain level is a professional game that requires hours and hours of previous training.

When playing poker I don't stare at the emotions of opponents, because many people know how to bluff very well, and the real emotions in poker show only beginners. I rely only on a combination of my cards, because this is the only way to calculate your chances to win.

Those people who claim to read emotions in poker are likely to play at the table with people they know well, whose emotions they have learned to understand. Playing with a stranger is difficult to understand his emotions.

I played poker the day before yesterday. On the River I got a Straight with a senior card of a jack which was on my hand. Above could turn out only a Flash provided that the opponent has 2 cards of one suit in a hand, but the chance of falling out of similar is extremely small. So I boldly pressed all-in. He answered. Guess what he had on his hand?

That facial expression tells something about his card that and sometimes I'll take that opportunity but if we are facing professional gamblers, you can just see them in calm. And it finds also that reading those emotions and facial expressions can't help you to win, what we need is to have luck.
Well, those skills had something to help since not all the times you will have a winning card.

Emotions can tell whether you're holding the luck of a opponent, that why it needs also skills in controlling your acts. This game can be a fatal pretentious being towards your enemy of the game, lucky winners will get a full rewards as long you've survived. Decision making is very important, and it can be case to case basis and no formula on that.

You should keep in mind that experienced players are able to keep calm when playing poker and it is difficult to guess anything from their face. Besides, I think everyone knows how to make a happy face when you have bad cards in your hand. This is one of the stages of bluffing.
In any case, if players often play together, they can notice some features of the opponent's behavior, which help to guess which cards are in his hands.

Well most players knew this tactic as well, it kind of signifies that the player staring is unsure on his/her cards. It can be done with strangers to be honest but that requires training yourself about body language and observing their way of entering the table. This is not applicable in online poker though because there is no human interaction happening, although pseudo tensions can build up online when there is only 2 players left on the table aiming for the pot.

I love to play poker too and usually when I get 4 of a kind cards depending on the number or straight flush then I will go all in. This is what I am always winning at poker and I feel lucky if I had this cards. However it may also sometimes difficult to obtain and get coward sometimes when someone will call huge bet. Poker is an easy game to play but the problem is that you can get emotional in the process of betting either you need to let go of your decisions to call or not every roundswl with bets that can go higher and higher each round and that is one pressure you could get when playing poker.

Yeah, they will have a chance to identify their opponent's behavior if they often play together. But for a player who doesn't always play together or don't meet for some time, they can improve their skills or hide their card, making it difficult for us to know if they have a good or bad card. I am sure that if they are pro poker game, they can bluffing their opponent with many things, so their opponent will speculate that the pro player will have a good card. The probability for a pro poker player to get a win will be bigger than the other player, but that will not guarantee that they can always win on every round because if their opponent has their luck, they can also bluffing the pro poker player. In the poker game, we will have the opportunity to become pro poker players if we can learn many poker lessons.

That is really hard when you are facing these kinds of gamblers and only our last chance to win is to have luck. However, if you are very much experienced in poker, it is not really important. What we need for now is to apply what we have learned from the past, make use of our skills and strategies well. Maybe they are good at hiding their emotions but we are not sure as well if they are good enough in handling their cards in the hard scenario because that would be the last way to make win otherwise, we lose.

Of course, what I have told you only applies to games at the same table next to each other. If you play online, there is no point in controlling your emotions. It is enough for you not to show your cards when you win in cases where it is possible. Let your opponents guess whether you were bluffing or not.


I have never played at the same table in offline tournaments so it is difficult for me to compare. However, I quite often play poker at the same table with my friends, these people know me for many many years. It seems to me that the hardest thing is to keep emotions with those people who know you well.

What I was thinking of was more something like this

https://www.ignitioncasino.eu/cms/IGN/8-Rpn1O0QBa1VpmrVUHXMA/pokerstartinghands-814x660-img2.JPG

I would actually use that or similar in very fast small stacked hyper games.

Like 16(4)    2x knock out

There is no time for poker patience, you really just need to wey up your hand. The visual helps assign a value for me


 

It is a bit of everything, in the long run as you mention the situations or the different types of games lead you to use all this information.

It is not just a question of knowing a percentage, the opening ranges are very important when you are starting to play poker and they are of great help, but knowing with which ranges to play in certain situations you don't learn it with a data table, but the skills or experience.

In my case, the data that I am most attached to regardless of situations or tournaments is the pot-odds table.

Poker allinBlack Friday odds for you Globb0  8)

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To: OP.
Actually, the OP's table, is more a statistical information than a determining action in your game.

Exactly on this last point from the FamososMuertos

A hero of mine keeping me honest!


Say in a 9 had game it really depends on your seat. still even further than that if you are at a table where no one ever raises and they all check in? you might as well see cards every hand.

So many variables.

The more confident I get the more I miss the odd crazy obvious enemy destroy me hand like a straight

Lol.

"is extremely small". If we have for example 3 cards of one suite on table, that's means that 10 still on the deck. You have two on your hands, so the probability that opponent has 2 cards of the same suite in his hands - pretty high.

For example, you don't have the same suite on your hand. And we have 5 cards on the table (River) with 3 of one suite. So, it is still 45 cards on the deck. How many ways to get 2 cards from this amount? Binomial coefficient (45, 2) which is 990. And how many ways to get 2 cards of the same suite? (10, 2) it is like 45

45 / 990 = 4.5 % (which is pretty high in poker)

Another way to count:

First card to get has prob as 10/45 = 0.22
And second 9/44 (first one is already taken) is approximately 0.2

And we need to get first card AND second. so it will be like 0.22 * 0.2 and it will be als0 4.5 % (you will get this percent if you will count more precise)

5 % it's too high chance man

Perks of being a poker player as much leisure time as she/he has that's why some of them were already developed their own tactics how to defeat their opponents. Poker probability combinations only shows the different combinations of playing poker but in the real game the tactics of one player were literally the dominant moves of them that they guess will make them win. And some of odds of winning also were due to luck.

You are not trained to play pro so it is okay, my advice is not to go all in when you get a good card, try to bet little by little to bait the other players into thinking that you are bluffing, when you get that kind of card, it is always worth it to lose your money. You can watch pro players held a high hand and bait others into playing all the way.

No matter what his card, if he is not a pro poker player, he should not use a big bet because he will meet a pro poker player who has high skills in a poker game.
If he uses big money to bet, he will have a chance to lose because a pro poker player will have more experience in that game.
It will no problem if he only wins some little money in a poker game because he should not chase the winning.
He should always remember that he is not a pro poker player, and it is better to play safely in any gambling games.
Even if he can bluffing another opponent, that doesn't mean he can do the bluff to all players because I am sure that all of the players will have the way to anticipate that.

Are you laughing, Johnny? 5% is a high probability? Would you bet in a casino if there was only a 5% chance of winning?
Personally, I think 5% is a very small chance of winning that in poker that in any other game. I just had very bad luck that day.

^ Most of the gamblers including poker players are into skills for they know that strategies and techniques can bring a higher chance of winning to them especially when they are already in the game and I must admit I am one of them. Though I love numbers it is true that only a few were still able to do the math and the probability while playing poker or unconsciously we still do but emotions are more dominant during the game that subsequently we forget it easily or we tend not to pay much attention to it, just maybe. Nevertheless, I want to thanks, OP for this thread it reminds me of my ratio and probability topic in Math back in my school days it nudges me to consistently use it in gambling.

This is a very useful spreadsheet, but in fact it is not correct. It was created on the assumption that the opponent has random cards in his hands. In fact, if you have two aces, your opponent will call your bet (which you must raise very seriously) with cards that are much better than the average.

All such tables only reflect average figures and do not need to be treated as something very accurate. However, it is quite possible to estimate the chances of falling out of a particular combination of cards.
In general, sometimes it seems to me that the chances of getting good cards by the opponent are much higher than mine.  :D

the problem is when we do the recording method of everything that has been played sometimes if we start again what the machine produces is not the same because I believe they have installed a script to read the cards we have and not poker gambling is not as honest as you might imagine, because if it is easy to guess and always wins, it will make online poker bankrupt.

Play poker only on proven platforms and there will be no risk that someone is playing against you dishonestly and is able to see the cards in your hand.
I know many regular players use special programs that collect statistics for their opponents. How many times and at what stage the opponent has won, how often all-in and so on. You can also install a program that will record the results of your pranks and help you then analyze your typical mistakes. But these programs can't show you other people's cards.

You just have to play it cool, don't go all-in immediately after getting good cards. I usually try to wait for someone to make a raise (if 6-7 people are playing at the table - most likely someone will do it) and then I call, and then I make my own raise, but gradually, not far different from the opponent's raise, and try to look cautious as if my cards aren't that good.
I also found that in online poker people tend to go all-in and make larger bets more often, so I think it's easier to win with good cards online. Plus no one can see your happy face, I personally have problems with hiding that one :D

Erm, flying on the fly isn't what I meant by straightforward, that's 2 different things imo. That's a "skill" in of itself, but the math behind it is plainly straightforward with no particular issues for errors. A result doesn't change randomly, it changes depending on the move made by you and the player against you, as well as the cards on the table. With those factors the only ones affecting the end result, it's a pretty straightforward calculation. Knowing said calculation does not guarantee a win though, since in the first place, the basis of the calculations is probabilities, and there isn't any 100% guarantee anywhere imo.

If you don't see getting good cards while playing a poker game, you don't have to continue playing because that can make you get more losses. You will not see the chance to win, especially if you don't have poker games skills. But anyway, I think you will get good cards someday, which will happen coincidentally, and you will never expect to have those cards. But every poker player will have different luck when they play, and some people who have high poker skills will get loss their money someday. But with having a high skill in poker, you will have more chances to win.

Those tables are just a table, and we don't have to think seriously, but maybe we can that something useful from that table. But to have good cards will be a luck factor that every gambler needs to have.

Calculations are important in playing poker because you can have an idea if your cards that you have can win or not, those professional gamblers are good with calculations and of course in probabilities because that skills are important to them.  Having good cards doesn't mean that you are lucky because you need to have confidence and right skills to execute it properly.

Also once you start to play more regularly you should be playing based on a certain range of cards. Probability of winning is one thing, but if you only bet the top 10 cards, and fold/call the rest, you become very easy to be outplayed. For example, if you play J10 the same way you play your K10 or A10 then it becomes much harder for your opponents to put you on a specific hand. A lot of people take notes when playing online, there is wide variety of player colors you can assign to people. Which makes it easier to call or fold in some instances.

These mind games are useless I guess when you are playing online poker but because I am not so good at poker and I hardly play but in real life I play these card games a lot.

Yeah frequently playing with the same players does help in understanding the behavior and nature of your opponent.

Exactly my point as well but it is true when you play against the same players even online you start to notice how they react and what moves they make on what kind of cards because everyone has certain way of reacting to bad and good cards.

Besides that, it is also important, a poker player must also have a good psychological factor because the combination of a solid strategy with reliable psychology can make a poker player successful. With good psychology, poker players can find out their limits and can predict how strong their opponent is, so this makes it possible for them to be able to read the opponent's thoughts and feelings.

Moreover, great psychology will allow them to withstand the pressures that appear during the match, so they can play without making fatal mistakes.

In the online scenario you can use the player notes and marking.

It is worth starting to mark players when you see a style you can recognise eg I have a tag for "goes all in with weird hands"

At first it wasn't that useful but now after a time of doing it on 2 sites I meet 3 or 4 "marked" players in every tourney.

Information  is king.

Then I just need to wait the right moment

This is obvious for the reason I indicated above. Opponent discards bad cards. You see your opponent's hand if he responds to your aggressive play, which means he also has good cards. Therefore, if you are guided by such spreadsheets, then you see a huge difference between theory and practice.

Yes, and not to forget, poker is a game of 50% probability and 50% psychology. Sot the probability figures show only half the truth. I have followed a lot of poker matches on TV years back and I could not count the times in which a player with much better cards (and therefore better chances to win) through away his/her cards because the opponent convinced him with its behaviour that the player has worse cards (what was not the case). Knowing the probability of your own hand helps but you also need to consider factors like psychological behaviour, table position, stack highs etc, too.

Awesome post, love seeing the probabilities for each type of hand! Poker got really big here in the United States around 2003-4 time frame.  I was in college at the time and when I first learned how to play I was absolutely hooked.  We would play every night for months on end.  The only problem with sit down texas holdem is making sure you've got absolutely nothing to do for hours on end.  I would often just go all in when I wanted to go do something.  Other than that, it is easily my favorite gambling game hands down too.

Thank you for appreciation, have to admit that I am the same although it was around my senior hihschool year when I learn to fully play and it was the perfect game to play on dead hours of our classes, it really is time consuming and that is part of the reason that I haven't played awhile.

Mine too. I like games that rely more on skill than brute luck. Poker is fairly simple to learn, but phenomenally difficult to master. I love the combination of skill, maths and psychology. The hardest thing for me is trying to ensure that my play is unpredictable for my opponents. For example, sometimes if I have an excellent hand I will remain very hesitant and low-stakes on betting, and only make a huge bid later on, when some random low value card is revealed.

Had that same problem as you back then, always hesitating in the most shitty situation. The thing I did to cure it was just to YOLO my games no matter what, win or lose. It worked for me and my poker game just felt elevated, you might want to try it too but take it with a grain of salt. By the way, do not play YOLO with a lot of money, you still have to be reasonable.

I've studied a lot of it during my college days in the subject of Probability and Statistics. It's easy to determine each probabilities but tbh, it's not that big deal.

Even if you have worst cards in poker, you can still win since the game doesn't based on luck only but in skills too. That's why I like poker, it's very different from other card games.

I guess it is not totally a skill-based game. I am not into this game but to how I view this game is a combination of luck and strategies wherein a player will try to bluff their opponents in order to assume what cards they are holding. But I guess not all players would be focusing on the probability of cards to show, because it will require full attention or awareness of the cards being drawn. And I doubt all players will do so especially if the bet is not that big unless a gambler is only aiming for the experience not into profit solely.

I am not saying I am proud of it, it is just that a lot of time in school are dead hours and some instructors do not go in time or are absent, trust me when I say this, there are far more things that is done by my mates during that time period. I learned to read the room when playing poker, people even to a certain degree. It is difficult to bluff when the players are not pro. Do not bluff the fool right?

Nah, In what school are you enrolled in? Your tuition fee will be put to waste because your instructor or professor are having exact salary but are not doing their job. It actually not a good deal if I were you and your classmates should complain it to the proper protocol. And if you are doing gambling and that has been done in the classroom then hopefully you will not get caught.

Anyway, I can't blame you either playing poker is good actually and it could excite anyone who will going to play with it. There could be stress too especially when calling huge bet and you are holding good cards. Everything can happen and winnings could be possible depend on your luck.

It is a city sponsored so everything is free and it is a public school. I do not think that it was put to waste, forgot to mention that this all happened where we just need to complete our requirements so there isn't much to be done. We can't play real cards so we improvised and I do not want to divulge more about that, just trust me that we didn't get caught even though there is a hall monitor.

There are people at PokerStars who have been playing in major championships there for many years. Many of them have played with each other more than once. Professional players usually use various programs to collect statistics on their games, where they also record statistics on opponents. Therefore, they can also assume certain frequent actions from their opponents with whom they have already played.
Of course, it is much easier to read opponents at the same table, but some players manage to do it online too.

By the way, the question about skill is very controversial in poker. Why do bookmakers accept bets on favorites with very small odds, and on underdogs with a large one in football? The answer is obvious. Now explain to me why there is nothing like this in the case of poker tournaments.

I think that that comparison does not make sense. The skill mentioned in poker is the mental skills needed. Bookmakers can't do odds bet on poker because it is complicated and there are more players involved in the game to make a bet on odds that may look favorable to the player. At the very least in sports there is a 50/50 chance that you can win and bookies does not need that much effort, just slap odds and you're good to go.

As i said, for poker combos it's enough high prob. For example, the closest probability to this is to get three of a kind. And to get such combo doesn't look something "beyond my imagination", it's often you can lose to such combo. So in your situation it was very likely to get such outcome.

In poker there is a place for luck and you can lose quite often with a strong hand. I've seen many times how on three handouts of cards to the enemy fell all the necessary cards. Similarly, I was often lucky. However, even according to statistics 5% is a very small probability. Can you call the probability low only when it is 0%?

No, but i'' say in the third time: 5 % for Texas Holdem is enough high prob. That means that in average 1 of 20 every poker distribution you will get such combo. In your situation that means that 1 of 20 such situations (3 one suite card on table on River) the opponent will get two needed cards for flush. And if you will everytime go all in, this is the chance that your expected value of this 20 games will be negative (but here i'm not sure).

Johhny is your own individual opinion. For me personally, the chance of 5% is small. You can ask other people. When there are 4 cards of the same suit on the River, then of course the chance that someone will have a missing card is extremely high, but when two cards of the same suit are missing, I consider this chance small and am not afraid to play against such cards.

This is math and statistics, not my opinion.  >:(
compared to other probabilities in poker this one is pretty high, so going "all in" it's not so wise decision. I think EV will be positive at least, but if you're playing in tournament and not for long distance, then it's as i said - not good decision.

He is saying preserve your tournament life.

Which is definitely true.

Unfortunately its no so easy to distill things to a percentage odds.

Position, pot value, whos in or out and so many more variables.

Even knowing when to fold something amazing because of the "chance" the opponent has that killer hand you spotted.

I am not so sure I understand what you mean by this, why do you think that people with different skills should have different odds or something, in the case of poker we have the same odds of drawing the same cards regardless of your skill, it is your skill that determines whether you win money or you lose and as such the game should be even for everyone, in the case of sports the same logic applies, but when you as an spectator want to bet on the games since you are an outside spectator and not someone directly involved in the game casinos give different odds depending on the likelihood of an event happening, to me the system they employ makes perfect sense but if for you it does not then could you at least tell us what do you think will be a fair system under those circumstances?

For me who is used to playing slots and dice, when I first tried playing poker it seemed very complicated and took
a few days to understand. I admit that playing poker must have good mathematical skills, in order to increase the
chances of winning. But thank you for sharing information regarding poker probability, this is very informative for me.
I'm actually getting interested in playing poker now, after getting a little bored with dice and slots.

I disagree with you) In sports, bookmakers accept bets on a huge variety of complex events, including long-distance ones (such as winning a tournament that lasts one season). If in poker there was a direct dependence on the ability to play (skill), then nothing would prevent bookmakers from accepting bets there, but this does not happen.

Compared to what other probabilities? With a piano flash? Which have 0.001 probabilities? In poker without risk not to win and if I have a 95% chance to win, I will not miss it. Of course you make your own decisions, your right I do not dispute. However, I don't think that a 5% chance is a high probability.

I kind of relate to this.

I just learned Poker in 2018 when I first watched a professional tournament which is called WSOP. It is amazing and I've been following some facebook pages to watch some videos. But in the past we've been playing too every lunch break at my teacher's cubicle ainc eit is the safest place with a game like poker we call Tongits.