Bitcoin Forum

https://i.imgflip.com/4n3rmb.jpg

Here is a simple chart of Bitcoin now with Relative Strength Index(RSI) indicator.
Why I said Bitcoin got more room upside? Because if we compare the previous RSI value when we reach the all time high, RSI value reached around 90.
Current RSI now, we are still not in 90 value of RSI, so for me I am expecting if we we surpass the previous all-time-high we may still not touch the 90 value of RSI.

What are your thoughts? Can history repeat itself? Like reach the previous ATH with same value of RSI?

I think we're near the start of 2017 now. Look at what it did then and look at tmwhat it's dojng now.

It's likely the FIRST jump and unlikely the last. We could probably see a drop or a cooldowm at least from here (or not if I'm wrong) but I don't think we're going to be massive bullish FOMO yet. Nothing's THAT crazy atm.

yes.

first wave ends late dec or jan around 25k-30k

we drop to 15-16k  and in the fall,of 2021

we do second wave cresting around 80k

I think the first wave will end sometime between middle of November (we are here now) and middle of December if you use 2013 and 2017 as a guide. This is pretty much what everybody assumed would happen in 2018 in November and thinking it was a bottom and would rally, instead we dumped instead and the bottom was like middle of December 2018, so I would not be suprised if its the same effect here. I don't think we will peak in January. Too many reasons why such as tax season and other new year issues.

The drop is hard to predict, will it go to 15-16K or will the 13.8K hold? I don't think it would be that easy. If $20K breaks, and it heads to $30K, will $20K be solid support. I think it would be way too easy if that actually happened. Most likely the bottom will be slightly higher or lower than those figures.

It has more room for uptrend, bitcoin never stops when it's bullish, but of course we have to expect some correction as bitcoin continuously going uptrend direction only is bad for the market, when there's so much FOMO, the result is a long correction, we've seen that in the past.


This is likely to happen anytime soon.

Obviously we are not at a level where people could stop, we have a lot more room to go higher and higher, at least until $30k the path is clear and could be done easily, at around $32k it is going to be a bit harder if you check where the biggest purchases and biggest sell orders are, however that is destined to change the higher we go as well.

However do not forget that bitcoin prices doesn't go up as long as RSI is under or over 90, it doesn't really care about that, plenty of times bitcoin prices moved independent from RSI many many times so far. So, this means we are definitely at a level where we do not have to care about RSI but if we look at RSI there is still potential that bitcoin price could as much as $30k without really stressing the sale pressure too much.

By how much people (maybe whales) are still buying, I think they are planning something grand than we realize. Though I will not be stupid enough to buy bitcoin as much as I can but I think it would be a good idea to keep some coins for a probable bull run and a new all time high. Technical analysis are not always the only way but they do show some emotional repetitive pattern for price. People just need to be more active to respond to the price changes than on regular times.

Yes, there are cases in which RSI didn't matter that much on bitcoin's movements for a lot of times, so even if the signs tell us that the crypto in question is overbought (which it is already stating now), it may or will not care at all and just continue for pushes, so long as the market is confident on the price and deem it a good buy. With the amount of momentum and traction that bitcoin picked up on the start of July up until now, plus the compounding number of organizations and financial institutions expressing their interest in acquiring bitcoins as an asset, you just really can't tell whether the market cares for technical indicators anymore or not.

This is definitely in the right forum, as we are all speculating on the future without any actual evidence of why. There is a general trend for big companies to get into Bitcoin and that can nudge the price up, but we've seen that places like Paypal trading bitcoin might actually be bad for the cryptocurrency. If Paypal buy up bitcoin in large amounts, they will push the price up but this ultimately will cause a lower amount available in circulation. Will new comers outside of Paypal-like ecosystems really want to invest in Bitcoin when they end up with a value like 0.0001 instead of 0.01 that they might buy right now? Anyway, in the short term it seems that bitcoin might hover around $20k for a while, which might be a stepping stone and create a floor which is never breached again.

The market looks almost the same as the year 2017 with lot and lots of growth happening with bitcoin. The altcoins which weren't growing big has slowly moving forward. As users stated the growth is happening in a better way, and the market is supposed to have some correction. That is where FOMO takes place, but this time people were prepared and have well understood the market. Possibly the correction point is the buy point for users who missed opportunity.

I am confident that history will repeat wherein Bitcoin will cross the last ATH and set a new landmark figure and only post which we might witness further lumo or dump because we are not sure what would be the bitcoin's peak this time as it might even cross $30k and yeah dump or correction is inevitable but it wouldn't be massive dump lich we experienced in 2018.

What are you modelling this off of, the 2013 bull run? It reminds me of the April push, followed by the big blowout in November.

Do you expect the market to run straight through $20K with little resistance then? Looking back at early 2013, the market barely blinked as it rose through $32, the old ATH from 2011. So there is that possibility.

This is in stark contrast to the January and March 2017 corrections, where the market struggled to break the 2013 ATH for months.

20k is a psychological limit, I think if we stay on course around a trend up then its very possible to exceed 20k.   The problem is first we must meet any selling around the idea that ATH is a ceiling, its not solid like that but perceptions still count as they will amount to sellers especially within the leveraged speculators.
   The reason its not a hard limit likely is the volume around this peak is as rare as air at the top of Everest, its not a strong top to justify any sell.    Even without discussing any specific price, its fair to state a pullback is normal and healthy for BTC to go through so thats why I do think the two make it likely we get profit taking.   Even during that it can stay bullish medium term, it doesnt have to fully return to the lower prices.   Pullback then onto higher prices is what Im expecting to occur.

This is also what I think and majority maybe. I am expecting a double top chart pattern here with the previous all-time-high.
Some may take profits or breakeven their position for those who was able to bought at the peak of previous ATH.
But what if the market will do the opposite of what majority thinking and will do a cup and handle pattern, or the other case is we will start a parabolic run once after we hit the previous ATH.

I don't know if what will I feel after what is happening right now. Its just like the memories of the 2017 rise comes to my mind again :D.
I will only feel OK here if it reaches the $20,000 price and sustain that price for quite some time.

Some of the predictions right now are bullish and you will not heard any bearish predictions for now like it will go down to this price etc. so in short yes Bitcoin got more room upside since the sentiment of the investors are on the upside.

1. All that graph crap won't ever work with Bitcoin.
2. Load of up left, only up left in the long term.
3. Anyone making any predictions on the price NOW when its so volatile is talking out of something other than their mouth.

Yeah this could be the opening salvo in the parabolic bull run. Or it could just be a late-middle stage bull market surge before a price dip and then a more stable build up to the old peak, at which point the real opening salvo of the parabolic run started say like summer of next year or something. Either way, there is a ton of upside in the next year or two as this bull market runs its course.

I think most likely it'll correct back down to the $11k-$14k area in December, and then build back up to $20k over the first 3-6 months of next year, and by summer we'll really see the start of the parabolic run.

After this we have increase almost another $1k, that is a great example to show you that bitcoin still has room to go upside. I am not saying it would be like this forever, obviously we are not going to be one million per bitcoin nowadays (which I believe will happen eventually one day, maybe 10-20 years later but "eventually" will happen) but we know that right now is not the time we are done going up. Could the price fall? Sure why not, this is bitcoin.

However, it is obvious that the market is not filled yet and we are still hungry about going higher and higher and there is at least few more thousands to break the ATH and go higher right now, it is not going to be easy but it is going to happen. This 1000 dollar increase was the proof that bulls are still around and they are still looking to make more profits.

apparently the 1W RSI is already in the resistance zone, for me this is the most accurate indicator,
I hope there is a correction first at 1W and cause Bitcoin to fall to $ 16000 support,
because without any correction at 1W it would be terrible for bitcoin prices.

You are doing it wrong. You should compare today's RSI with RSI of early January 2017 when price got close to old ATH of $1200.  RSI from December 2017 will be compared with RSI that will happen at ATH of this Bitcoin cycle sometime next year.

I have the same thought, bitcoin has the potential to reach $25k-$30k but within this year, the real fomo may starts after bitcoin succeeds surpass $20k+, and expect Bitcoin to reach $35k or more by the end of January, this probably the start of Bitcoin parabolic trajectory, depends on the trend in the market. The retraction probably around 30% i.e. $17k-$21k before starts to climb up again. The second wave is the most interesting part in 2021 as bitcoin always surprise us with the new ath, because bitcoin will be in bubble territory above $50k.

Well, the uptrend will still boost on my own because of the mass adoption that we are experiencing right from Paypal, -- but the volatility remains the same. However, in no time or at least on the last week of November or the first week of December we will reach the ^[ATH] and possibly even go beyond $20k but ^[FOMO] could bring everything worse and correction may happen within the year. Predictions can be tough on how bearish it could be but perhaps it will not go lower than $13k once we reach the ^[ATH] for investors will definitely continue to trade and demand keeps on increasing trend so it will help to sustain the value of bitcoin in a good value.

I'd like this to be true, but if we reach 30 thousand and fall from there, what will stop the market from entering a big 2-3 year bear market like in 2014 and 2018?

25 thousand in 2 months is doable but many analysts predict that if we reach that level it's going to end with at least 2x from the last ATH so 50 thousand or more in 2021, followed by another bear market. Then there are those who predict 200 thousand next year  ;)

Be careful relying on oscillators too much. Buying when RSI is oversold and selling when RSI is overbought only works during range markets. During strong bull markets, RSI can become embedded in the 70+ range for months at a time.

Take a look at the 2017 bull market for inspiration:

https://i.imgur.com/fbmIFs4.png

I think completely the opposite, to put it simply you are comparing the 2017 ATHs with current "close to new ATH price levels". I see the currently Weekly RSI as a major cause for concern, an enivtable drop in price that will come sooner or later. But when it does, as always, bull market or not, it will be a significant drop whether from here, $20K or $25K.


If the Weekly RSI get's rejected at 85, not only would be this be completely reasonable, but could lead to months of consolidation after a considerable drop.

Not forgetting the RSI is not really meant to be traded, but instead utlizied as a reference point of price strength. Mainly for bullish and bearish divergences that can be acted upon, rather than selling when overbought and buying when oversold. Even May last year was a good example of why selling oversold around $7.5K would have been a very bad.

If you want to trade the RSI it's recommended to buy when strength is leaving the oversold conditions, or sell when leaving the overbought conditions. But even this is a very weak way to trade imo without doing it based on the divergence of price strength. At the moment, on the Weekly scale, there is 0 divergence, only bullish overbought conditions.

To me at the moment the Weekly RSI is screaming "caution (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5291523.msg55650880#msg55650880)", not buy or sell and definitely not short either. Soz double post I realise...

Divergence analysis is very common today but it wasn't why RSI was developed or how it's traditionally been used.


https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/rsi.asp

Since he said RSI was in a resistance zone and that he was expecting an imminent correction, I assumed that's what he meant.


My point exactly.

Then again, the purpose of selling overbought conditions is to lock in profits before a correction. I suppose that's a fair enough strategy for dollar-minded traders who want to preserve capital. I'm personally more concerned about losing coins than dollars, so it's not an ideal strategy. But to each his own.

This would be the healthiest scenario. I think if we directly go up to 30k now and crash from there, we will probably see another bear market for the next two years. A smaller correction to 15k now will give opportunity for people to enter that now are thinking they missed the train, just as people start seeing the bitcoin logo on their paypal accounts.