Bitcoin Forum

Alessio Rastani posted the ABC hypothesis tonight and I will follow up his idea in this post.

1. BTC is only used speculatively and saw its golden decade
2. Tech is out of whack and Netscape is the nearest analogy

But the argument on BTC merit/no merit is not the focus of this scenario, it is how Alt projects behave during terminal BTC c wave, and this goes something like this:

1. BTC c wave to $2000 and below where traders expect reversal into parabolic uptrend in 2021
2. ALTs drop to multi year lows along with BTC during this great crypto deluge
3. Alts recover and flip BTC which does reverse but henceforth in zombie mode similar to ETC, vastly underperforming alts this decade

The argument in favor of c wave is:

1. lack of use case, it seems USDT supplanted most alt pairings
2. fees
3. proof of work/energy inefficiency
4. slow
5. out of whack market cap vs user base compared to for example facebook
6. hoarded by old world military/elites so status quo remains regardless of outcome

There is of course more history on this potential outcome and why it has some validity but I will still say bull is 70/30 in favor.

But maybe keep it in mind.

at this point you can only dream about prices below $10k let alone something ridiculously low such as $2k. those days are gone the same way we said goodbye to prices such as $800 back in 2017 when we were getting closer to the ATH of that time.

in any case even if by some miracle in some alternate universe bitcoin started crashing hard, the altcoins will be annihilated since their dump will be massive in comparison and there is no way any altcoin can even recover from such a drastic dump.
if you check the historical prices whenever bitcoin has a bubble burst (which is the most drastic drop bitcoin ever has) the altcoins have at least twice bigger dumps and they never recover from them. there is of course always altcoin pumps that try to salvage some profit from their sinking ships but in the end the ship is still sinking due to being uselss.

by the way the 6 arguments you included here are all very old FUDs that were debunked a million times already.

It is really silly to say that bitcoin saw its "golden decade" when it was its first decade in existence. You do realize that bitcoin was created just 11 or so years ago and reached from zero to 20k in that span right? That is insane to think that we have reached from some guy writing some code at his home to having 500+ billion dollar marketcap in crypto sector. Yet for some people, bitcoin will always be underestimated and they will keep underestimating what bitcoin and crypto has achieved.

Go ahead and consider whatever you want about bitcoin and you will be the one who would be upset that you didn't get involved earlier, everyone in the world will have bitcoin one day or wishes they had a bitcoin, there won't be anyone who wouldn't know what bitcoin is left in the world.

OP are you actually saying BTC is going to $2000?? haha. That day is long since passed! We're in the middle of a bull market, Bitcoin will likely never go below $10k again, even if it corrects hard in the coming weeks it's unlikely to go below $10k, and that would be the last chance it ever has to dip back into 4 digits. Bitcoin is heading towards $100k, not $2k.

I don't know why people follow this wave hypothesis. The market cycles in bitcoin are very clearly shown as booms followed by ~80% crashes every roughly four years. If you think it is doing this wave thing and are hoping for $2k, you're gonna be waiting for all eternity.


To say Bitcion is analogous to Netscape it to completely not understand what's going on. Bitcoin is analogous to Gold, and Gold hasn't gone anywhere. Right now BTC and ETH run the show, pretty much everything else is pure speculation, and probably anything that will turn into not being pure speculation will be something that works with ETH applications, like LINK.

If you want good analogies: Bitcoin is Gold. Ethereum is the internet. And altcoins are either penny stocks or internet (ethereum) startups trying to gain traction in a sea of trash, and I'm sure eventually a few of them will actually become useful and be something more than speculative plays.

I think these so called crypto analyst makes it more complicated though, it's just a boom and bust, bullish and bearish cycle. We are not in the 2016 pattern and next year will be the 2017 bull run. And we all know that once we reach an all time high in 2021 then it will be followed by another bearish cycle similar to 2018-2019. So regardless of over thinking things in crypto market, it will be the same scenario all over again, whatever waves or hypothesis they come up, in my opinion.

Finally, some classic FUD! I was wondering when the bears would start coming out of the woodwork. :D

Since when is Bitcoin's primary use case trading against altcoins?

Fees, inefficient, slow, inflated......why are these arguments valid now when they didn't stop Bitcoin in 2017?

From a technical perspective, markets very rarely double top after this length of time (2017-2020). Shakeouts aside, hovering below $20K like this strongly implies a new ATH is coming in the near-mid term. I wish you luck trying to trade based off this plan though.

^^ They definitely coming back in this community, a few threads of FUD, I'm smelling something is brewing once we hit $20k.  :)

Those arguments? ah, classic one, but up to this day, the bears or at least no coiners are still and very consistent with the power or energy inefficiency of bitcoin mining. I think this will be their greatest squabble against bitcoin and it won't die in the next 50 years.

Today I can send bitcoin transaction with 31 sats/byte fees and it will be included within next two blocks. That is just $1.31 in fees. I don't see how bitcoin fees is a problem when I can send millions with just $1.31 in fees! Not to forget, bitcoin is the most secure blockchain, something altcoins will never match up.

People could all have their own ideas about whats going to happen in the crypto world, and the great thing about crypto world is the fact that almost all of them are right about what "could" happen because bitcoin is unregulated (sort of) and decentralized so that means anything actually could happen.

It could be the best years we had and from now on we could go down, or it could be that we are just starting and it is going to be over 100k eventually, both of them are literally possible in technical sense if you look at it, it all depends on us the market that decides on what will happen and if we agree with this we could make it go down or if we disagree we could make it go down. Bitcoins beauty is the decentralization from just one place and let us decide what we want.

the increased number of idiotic FUD has always been expected. this is not the first time that the same type of people start regretting their decisions about either not buying bitcoin or buying some other shitcoin which is falling right now. then they come online and fill the internet with their wishes like OP here thinking if they wish it hard enough it should come true ;)
basically every time there is a price rise they come out.

;D As My wife says, sometimes desires materialize if you constantly think and talk about them. Let people live in hope and it will make it easier for them.  ;)
It can be assumed with absolute certainty that even the current state of the cryptocurrency market is not successful for everyone.

1. Probably be the other way around, the uptrend in 2021 should reach a new ATH with some corrections but it will not ever fall to $2k considering the growth of bitcoin.
2. Altcoins exist to cover bitcoin's shortcomings, so it's expected that the price goes up and down following bitcoin.
3. Based on point number 2, that won't happen. Actually, ETH hit the ATH after the price of bitcoin fell, but as time goes on, none of the altcoins can withstand depreciation.

I'm just curious: why did you ditch your old account (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?action=profile;u=1292097)? I'm not going to re-tag you as I don't think TMAN's problem with you is worthy of a red tag.


This is an unhealthy attitude to have. Once you free yourself from the belief that society owes you a living then you can begin to bring your understanding of reality in line with reality itself.

The great reset is a story already written and told many times, that idea is within the price yet we've risen anyway overall.   BTC is subject to extreme views hence its great range and volatility overall is not without reason.
  Right nowe we are pulling back and after such a big rise its quite healthy, I think its because of the holidays and the medium term bullish case is likely to remain.   However right this moment we are bouncing (https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/ALpJm.png) off the lower bar of the bullish channel and may lose it.   Weekly bars matter most for this grand scenario and weekly is bullish for a while now.

FUD will always continue to exist, look at https://99bitcoins.com/bitcoin-obituaries/ for example, this place isn't even counting all the times it died in twitter chats and bitcointalk and reddit and all the local forums and chat places in every nation. No, this place only counts the newspapers from certain places, so it is VERY limited and even with that, hundreds of people already said bitcoin died. What happened? Well it has reached the all time high levels once again and one bitcoin is nearly $20k right now.

This is why whenever someone says bitcoin is a scam, bitcoin is ponzi, bitcoin will crash or whatever else they say that proves me that they know nothing about bitcoin, it means I do not have to listen to them and I do not have to answer to them like they deserve one.