Bitcoin Forum

Makes all the sense in the world - https://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/k3qwnc/explained_the_road_to_100k_is_underway/

I wouldn't be surprised that on the way to 100,000, market makers will shave hamsters a few more times. On the one hand, it is good that many investors buy bitcoins not
for speculation on the stock exchange, but for long-term investments.
But on the other hand, it is very difficult to say where the bitcoin price will go in the near future.

This is the correct answer.

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I appreciate the enthusiasm everyone has for to the moon growth of bitcoin. We all want bitcoin to hit $100,000. There is zero technical or fundamental analysis to support bitcoin growing 5x in 2021. And I know that bitcoin has grown that much in 2020, but that's from territory that it's already traded within. To grow 5x more in just 12 months requires a rapid expansion of awareness and adoption that is incredibly unlikely. It's not impossible, almost nothing is impossible, but to say that "the road to $100k is underway" is a factually false. There's nothing to indicate we have that momentum building.

All of the technical analysis from the past indicates that if we do grow to $100,000 it'll happen in 3-4 years. And that's looking at how long it's taken to grow to these levels (logarithmic scales) in the past, incorporating halving milestones as a driver of reduced supply growth. Reduced supply growth is a critically important factor in price growth, alongside the more challenging growth in demand.

I like where things are headed, but let's temper the "we've arrived" talk.

If someone looks to the price growth since January 2018, he would surely coclude that the price can multiply in a very short time compared to all other kinds of investment. It's logic to believe highly in the potential of Bitcoin and how it could really make a fortune especially if this one has nothing to do in life but waiting for such opportunities .

Conclusions are as valuable as the data that supports them.

If you want to use January 2018 as your starting point for that data. The high price in January 2018 was $19,783. The high price nearly three years later, i.e., December 2020, is $19,850. Therefore we can conclude that the price growth for bitcoin is $67 every three years. By the start of 2024 (the next 3 year period) we can predict, based on the data you want to use, that the price of bitcoin will be $19,917...$67 more than it is today, three years prior.

You need to look at all the data. You need to realize that the balance between supply and demand is not perfectly linear. People have been talking about bitcoin going to the moon next year for nearly a decade...what makes this time different?

No, the correct answer is no one knows.  Everything else is just a guess. 

Previous order of magnitude new highs didn't take that long, but ask in 2030 and then you can get the correct answer as to how long it took.

Second statement quite contradicts your claim on lack of certainty with regards to the market value of cryptos. We don't even have assurance whether its market value will just be continuously increasing in the future or will it someday be stable and be used in daily transactions. I guess as long as its market price is increasing, it won't be used on daily transactions simply because users will have hesitations whether to use or to just hold because it will be profitable in such way and fiat currencies will more likely be used on transactions because there will be no regrets since market prices are far less volatile.

That is a weird assumption. I don't know why people think that bitcoin price follows a particular pattern. When you/he say 6 figures, are y'all aware that 99k isn't 6 figures (unless 100K)? By this, you're trying to say that bitcoin will go over 5 times it's price in the next year. I'm not saying it's impossible but, that's just too much of an expectation.

I think the journey already started, for those who where hoping to see a massive drop like before you have another think coming because from the look of things btc is not going to dip that much again,
From now on just little correction will happen, so the journey to 100k already started though it will take some time but it has been established.

yes the journey started last Dec 2012 - $13 (First halving year) going to the 6 figures this 2021 as the post on reddit. I'm gonna have to watch out how low it could be when bears take over.

To $100k? I don't think it would take that long. After all it only took a year to go from $900 to $20,000 (22x) or 3 years to go from $150 to $20,000 (133x). So why should going from $19,000 to $100,000 (5x) or from bottom $3200 to $100,000 (31x) take 4-5 years while the adoption is growing at a much higher speed compared to 2017 (or from 2015 to 2017)?
Such a small price rise (in comparison) won't take nearly as long. It would be perfectly possible to see it reached in first couple of months of 2021 and not even stop there.

You see it is always a good idea to analyze bitcoin history in long term (eg. during 2017 or during the cycles from 2015 to end of 2017) and analyze the current bitcoin potential with consideration of its current adoption. Each cycle is very similar to the previous ones too. For example going from $1k to $20k was pretty much similar to going from $1 to $20 a couple of years before or the $200 to $1200 and so on.

Remember when $1 million seemed to make sense to everyone wanting to believe? Pepperidge Farm remembers;)

Guy copped a lot of flak for ATH, not sure why, if it was in early 2018, then surely people would have believed either price was returning to 20k, or that the cycle had just ended, and we'd need to wait several years for the next one. 2020 is rather much sooner than most projections would have placed it.

everyone hopes that there will be a big change that many people may have been waiting for to bitcoin for a long time. we cannot escape the desire for a sharp increase to happen soon. but the end of the year is still a month and no one can predict where bitoin is going during this month.

whether to pass the crucial $ 20K mark and continue to move to reach the coveted price, or go down first and finally it will not be until next year that bitcoin makes such a highly anticipated move.
we will wait patiently for what bitcoin will do.

This guy says nothing new and he doesn't bring anything new to the table,when it comes to BTC price predictions.
He fails to explain how the Bitcoin price will jump from 19000 USD in Dec 2020 to six figures in Dec 2021.
That looks like a bold statement to me.Back in 2018,the expectations of LN boosting BTC adoption and price were huge.Now almost nobody cares about the Lightning Network project.
By the way,I don't think that Bitcoin has an "underway value".The current market value of BTC is the true value,because it's defined by supply and demand.Bitcoin isn't and cannot be overvalued or undervalued.

Or just read this thread by @fillippone Stock-to-Flow Model: Modeling Bitcoin's Value with Scarcity (https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=5191012.0) and understand why $100k is possible is even more. It is a time series model, I advise the OP to check that thread.

Very optimistic targets, perhaps emotions are moved due to the huge price movements on the upsides but I don't think the current steam we are having would be sufficient to take us there in a few months or even a year. A lot of shakeouts and selloff might occur along the way, as was evidenced by our run from 2013 ATH to 2017, and it will be harder than ever considering that the space is slowly being heavily-regulated due to the involvement of huge players on the traditional investments market on our turf. I believe that $100k is very possible, and the question posed should not be how, but rather when.

I always find it hilarious when people look at the Bitcoin price history and then wants to make predictions based on those numbers of the past. There are no predictable price trend that can be followed into the future, because many of these spikes was driven by some kind of push event.

In 2017 it was the ICO Boom period and the hype around that and it all died down when large social media platforms started to ban Crypto based advertising. (Specifically new ICO's)

This latest price spike is driven by PayPal allowing selected customers to buy and sell bitcoin on their platform and the hype that surrounds that.

The hype will die down and the price will drop again and then PayPal will announce the push into Europe with this and the price will peak again and then PayPal will open their merchant network for Bitcoin payments and it will explode.   

All of this is not guaranteed, because some negative event during the same time will cancel out this spike in the price.  ::)

Getting to $ 100K per bitcoin will still take a long time. I never expected too much. I chose to sell when it was profitable and buy back at the right time. You don't have to wait until the price reaches $ 100K per bitcoin.

In my opinion, it is a low possibility for Bitcoin price to reach 100k dollars in one year. I think we need at least a few years to see that level. But there is a truth that predicting Bitcoin price is a very very difficult thing. It is always open for surprises as we know that it is too volatile.

We cannot easily say that bitcoin will be having an easy way to one hundred thousand dollars because every price up can also give you a toll. If the price goes up, it will be impossible to not go down so it is better to take care on trading because it can change the wind of price graph easily. There is a lot of factors we can always check to know if the price will still go on like demands of bitcoin.

taking a stroll down the memory lane we don't even have to go that far back, people were saying $5k is not even possible by the end of the year just because price was stuck at $3k at that point.

it seems to be in the nature of some people to deny the inevitable bitcoin price rise as seen by some comments around this forum this day and in this topic.
even more interesting is when all these $100k $500k and $1 million predictions start coming out now that the price is rising whereas the rest of us have been saying the same thing when price was $3k ;)

$ 100,000 is a very high price for Bitcoin. 

Bitcoin has a large number of old holders.  To what extent are these people ready to become the richest people in the world?  The dollar billionaire can finance large-scale projects.  He can even create nuclear weapons or finance terrorists.  Most of the older bitcoin holders are cypherpunks.  These people can be dangerous to today's global elite.  The elite does not trust these people.

I think they will not be allowed to become dollar billionaires and, accordingly, Bitcoin will not be worth $ 100,000 any time soon.

Indeed there are provocations on the speculations of the majority. That instance in $3k price mark is a good example but I guess things are not the same with such high market value of more than $100k, knowing that its market value is not continuously increasing in a consistent manner. Provocations are made because the claim is somewhat hard to believe but it does not determine what will really happen in the future. It makes sense the past's predictions now met reality but it is just hard to visualize that a decentralized digital currency, will be worth of such wherein it is not meant to be an investment in the first place.

Even though the current Bitcoin price has returned to the way it did in 2017, it does not mean that it will immediately rise
to the price of $ 100,000. That's a target that may be impossible to achieve in the near future, it is too risky to believe that
Bitcoin will hit a price of $ 100,000. Because people will have high hopes for Bitcoin, which is investing in Bitcoin is an activity
that has a high risk. So it's okay to have a high target against Bitcoin, but it's better to be realistic.