Bitcoin Forum

BTC technicals are against $20,000. I don't think holding now is a good idea.
Maybe a good idea is to move the money from BTC to altcoins.

If BTC breaks $21,000 confirming a breakout, media will write about BTC and move retail investors will flow in. Then get in.
I think for now, the best idea is to liquidate BTC. And move to alts.


What's your take and why?

Happy to discuss!

I agree, usually when BTC rallies, the alt-coins will rally days/weeks/months after.

So I'm also looking into moving to alts actually. Interesting take. However, I'm not sure what will happen. It's always up to the whales to decide :D

Can you share the analysis by which you arrived at this conclusion? And even if there was a resistance at the $20k range, I do not see that as an argument for one to sell off. Some people practice scalp trading to try and make profits around the price changes, however if one does not have enough trading experience the safest strategy would be to hold.

Quite the opposite, this is a terrible idea. There are thousands of altcoins in the crypto market and switching simply cause of a price barrier is not a wise decision.

So you're suggesting someone who may have built their portfolio at a lower price should sell off now and fomo back in when the hype comes back? How does that favour their portfolio?

I agree. They make the markets. We just need to be with them. And we know how they think!
They have shown that to us.

Although the switch to altcoins will achieve gains, I expect that we are at the beginning of the wave, which may witness levels of resistance that we have not seen before. Perhaps the price will only stop at $ 24,000 or more. Therefore, switching to altcoins may be profitable in the short term, but it is very dangerous. The long-term.


too many alts will have heavy correction so be careful.

Technical analysis means nothing when you have solid fundamentals.
We have halving, huge monetary expansion never seen before due to corona virus crisis, inflation, paypal accepting btc, etc.


You would better move to USDT or some stable coins, because if BTC goes down it will sink all altcoins with it (or at least most of them).

But, you will probably end up with less BTC than you had before. I believe we will go past ATH, to a new ATH nobody knows (25, 30, 50k? Who knows? Bitcoin is unpredictable, it always was)

LOL. I'm going to swap my bitcoin for some shitcoins ASAP just because you say technicals are against it.

Not a chance.

All your strategy and analysis is good except moving to altcoins during this current position of BTC since altcoins always follow the BTC price movement especially during massive dump. Converting in to stable is more appropriate for securing profit and re-enter just like what you said once there is already a confirmation.

It's ok to miss some profit opportunity, The most important is securing profit no matter how much it is rather than losing it because you chase all the profit possibility.

Last high at around $20k. This time it is double top! I'd say, even if there is a small breakout, it has to sustain with volumes. Which is why the next buying point could be $21,000 providing confirmation. Plus media news will start. New investors will roll in.
It's a big barrier. If you are holding from $5k, do you have a target in mind? Where does this stop? You need to have a plan I believe. This is my plan. You may agree or not is totally fine.

If you don't have a target, then where is the exit strategy? Atleast for altcoins, we now know the levels. That is my point.

Open to further comments and discussion on this

Looks like that drop to $16k may have just been a bear trap instead of a full on correction - as full on correction probably would have brought it to $11k-$13k and lasted for much longer.

At this point, with Bitcoin back up to $19k and actually went higher today and broke the ATH on a few exchanges, I'd say there are two possibilities for the near future:
1. This is a double top at ATH and we will soon see a full on correction to $11k-$13k
2. $16k was a bear trap and this thing is gonna push over $20k and maybe go a few thousand higher before a full 30%-40% correction hits.

Right now I'd say 60/40 that it isn't a double top and it will push higher soon.

Altcoins may get a day or two of pump when Bitcoin does correct, but they also might just start bleeding worse than Bitcoin immediately whenever Bitcoin does start falling. Moving from BTC to altcoins is not a good idea. Right now it's time to keep the coins you have and see if this pump continues. Good traders loaded up on more coins on that recent drop and are in a better position than they were before the drop. We might see a couple waves of switching between Bitcoin moving up and altcoins moving up. Altcoins moved up well yesterday but bitcoin is taking charge so far today. I'd like to see Bitcoin pump over $20k maybe tomorrow, then stabilize for a day or two as altcoins pump 10-20% higher, followed by bitcoin hitting $22k or $23k this weekend and alts pumping as well, before a full on correction that brings everything down 30-40% and lasts until January.

Possibly, but it's a risky move until the ALT/BTC uptrend is confirmed. If BTCUSD continues surging above $20K, those pairs are liable to bleed back down as ALT/USD pairs stagnate. If BTCUSD crashes, altcoins are liable to crash harder too. In both cases, you'll be losing BTC.

If BTCUSD fails near $20K in the short term and ALT/BTC and ALT/USD pairs spike upwards (like March 2017), then hell yes. That's got "altcoin season" written all over it.

Everyone who has been around a little while or bothered to ever look at altcoin charts knows that altcoins are always in the dumping mode in the long run but more importantly if bitcoin price were to go down, the altcoin prices dump a lot harder than bitcoin price.
Suggesting move to altcoins is like throwing your money away.

Not to mention that since altcoins only have pump and dumps, they are suitable for experienced traders who know how to make profit from pump and dump otherwise it leads to disasters.

What the hell is this advise? Move bitcoin to alts? Lol, one of the worst if not the worst advise that I have heard in this forum for a long time. Regardless if we didn't get to a new all time high, I wouldn't liquidate my bitcoin assets in favor or alts. I'm not against alts by the way, but they are move volatile that bitcoin that it wouldn't make sense for a bitcoin holder. And we have seen the correlation with alts, if BTC fails then the rest of the alts followed.

Thanks for pointing that out! I like people with opinions and this is well-taken!

In my defence, BTC at the top - ATH, and there is obviously going to be huge barrier here. Do you see a 100% move in BTC here, should it move above $20,000? If yes, it's good. If not (which I think will happen), you have literally exited BTC at the top which is $19700 or whatever and moved your money to coins like ripple or cardano or tron which still have 2x upside left if not more.

If they are connected, definitely they will move in the same direction. If BTC going $40k (if at all), ripple and cardano may be trading at 2.5 - 3x atleast which means you would have made more money in these than BTC.

If BTC comes crashing down, ripple etc may fall as well, less in correlation with BTC.

I believe a good way to trade this is by moving to alts.

Open to discussion and debate!

Holding for short term isn't a good idea unless you are a trader or you are buying Bitcoin for the long term.
Now if you are saying that holding Bitcoin isn't a good idea then you might be wrong. It will depend on the plans and target of the investor.

Bitcoin isn't even reached the breakout of $21,000 like you said but the media is hyping it already and they are interviewing different crypto investors.
Moving to alts isn't a bad idea though but if you are a trader, possible you move to alts as they are more volatile and you get more profit to it than Bitcoin but on the other hand if you are an hodler then just buy Bitcoin but wait for a correction to maximize your profits.

Overall, moving to alts isn't a good idea unless you are a trader and preventing those investors into holding Bitcoin isn't a good idea too.

I see where you're coming from, but you have to recognize how little historical data we have.

In 2013, BTC blasted through the 2011 ATH like a hot knife through butter. There was barely any resistance. In contrast, in 2017 BTC struggled a lot with the 2013 ATH, correcting harshly back below it in January and March.

So before you assume jumping into alts is a good plan, you might want to make sure BTC is actually at a major top first. Even then, there is no guarantee altcoin season will kick off at that point just like March 2017. It's possible, but too early to say. I hate jumping the gun with altcoins.

Yeah, been there, see that once bitcoin goes to the top and bubble, there could be investors liquidating their bitcoin assets and then moving to alts that's why we saw ethereum and xrp making their own ath when bitcoin was already on the downward spiral.

But OP, we have to understand that we haven't reach the top yet, this is just 2016 for me, less likely that we will see bitcoin investors suddenly selling off in favor of altcoin market, not as this point as we haven't touch any ath yet.

what are you talking about? all the technicals and fundamentals and any other way that you look at bitcoin all are signalling for the new ATH and at least a year of bull market where price keeps rising without any stops apart from the obvious small corrections.

getting pumped for a short time just because of some hype (fork airdrop, etc.) is not important at all. sustaining the rise is what matters and the altcoins that get hyped and then pumped have never been capable of keeping their price up.

Yes if it breaks 21,000 media will write about it and investors will come in but they will not be the one to liquidate the bitcoin market. I mean those new investors that will come in because of bitcoin bull won't be the one taking profit because those who are hodling already from early buy will be the one to take profit immediately which is likely going to cause the back move to bear but it could be temporary because next year will bull.

Not possible. Selling around $21,000 by existing investors is not at all feasible. If they have to sell, they would sell at $19800 or so only. Because for $1,000, they won't stay in the game.

Plus there is going to be short sqeezing. Above $21,000, there is going to be a swift $4000 - $5000 move, if that happens.

Its up to someones choice because it would really be moving neither of those path its up if its goes down or rise after breaking its ath but to presume that
media will surely publish news about such breakout and this is where hype and interest will flow in.Next? Sell out for those who bought earlier and lets hope
that there would be no bad crash out into the price and able to withhold but if not then we would be seeing an another 2017 scenario but i observed that
it wont really be the same if basing to the level of adoption.

I didn’t see any strong rationale for the assumptions in the first post. There is a chance that the "forecast" will coincide with what will happen, but it will only be a coincidence - every day many people make forecasts and the fact that someone guesses is inevitable.

Technicals are not always right, they are sometimes right and sometimes wrong, we do not know which one this will be. However, I have to say ever since $14k the greed index has been looking like it is skyrocketing and bitcoin still didn't stopped and finally broke the ATH price for example. People assumed we weren't breaking it and we were dropping and look where we are right now, finally over the ATH price after 3 years.

In the past 3 years there has been some people who even went as far as saying we would never break the ATH price, and we proved them wrong as well. Do not ever doubt bitcoin price, I am not saying it will not go down, it always goes down eventually, but never assume it will not go to certain price but it can be at any price any moment and shock you.

Alt coins have higher volatility then BTC, its not usually the move of the risk adverse to do so.   You might be right on trading but superior performance is coming with higher risk or effectively its a leveraged play.

Im not too negative on BTC right now but it should be watched carefully, we are breaking the trendline or channel (https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/ALhb3.png) for the last month however this would need confirmation as break of trend occurred last week also but recovered to end the week positively.
   We rose from the 2 day average at the start of friday action, broke down below with the biggest bar of the day then dragged along the bottom of the trend till near close of the working week and now finally we are ending with a push below trend and towards the weekly average.   If we cross below 18500 and end this week on Sunday in such a way it could develop negatively further, however we may yet recover still.   I doubt we are moving downwards without hesitation.

Here is the thing with waiting for it to break $20K and buying it at like $20.5K or $21K. I see one or 2 things happening here.

First one is that it will break $20K and head straight to like $23-25K or so. What do you do then? Buy it at $25K. Seems very risky. Another most likely scenario is that it will break $20K, go to like $21K and then go back down below the $20K and start to go towards the $19K basically be a fake out pretty much.

Remember what happened in Nov 2018? It broke $6K and many people wanted to sell at a loss at $5.9K, however it never went to $5.9K went to like $5.6K and headed straight down right away towards the $3K. So if it was this easy everybody would be trading this scenario.

Do not believe everything TA says, we are in a world where TA means nothing right now and everything is purely human at this point. Humans makes mistakes all the time, not even just about bitcoin, they make mistakes about basically everything. Which means even if TA show that it should be going down, even if people should sell, even if everything basically says get out, people will not do it because there is a hype going around bitcoin and they want to be a part of this hype, which is why they will not let it go.

This is going to be a bit tough because we can't continue to go up forever, hence at some point people will stop, however when they stop it will not be about TA since almost all of us do not look at that to make a decision.

And hence the probabilities.
TA works because people see it. People see it so it works. Its a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Work on probabilities and you will never lose money on trading.

I don’t think you should put it in some altcoin Because Of the possibility of losing its value again and going with the price of BTC as well. I think it’s better to put your capital in stable coins like USDT or USDC just to preserve the USD value of it, if it’s what you are aiming for to grow. If you want to earn BTC then altcoins are the choice.

Better to trust on data + numbers provided by the TA rather than trust the media that clearly has certain agenda.
That is the principle that currently i am holding on.
day by day i see it is getting clear that the whales and some institutions that holding large amount of bitcoin trying to build a fake momentum for people who know nothing about bitcoin to jump in while they liquidating piece by piece.
The long journey for bitcoin to reach 100000 usd must be halted now , wont be easy journey .

As the saying goes, two TA specialists usually have 3 opinions  ;D
I am skeptical about TA even in the stock market, and the crypto has its own specifics and here TA has even less scope/efficiency. As for the current situation, it is very likely that the growth continues and higher levels will be reached.

I don't think one should liquidate now because if you look, BTC looks more stable around $19k which didn’t last for a day last time we had ATH. So, once it can break th $20k resistance, we can see a significant move soon.

Moving to alt is much riskier now I think as most of the major alts have already pumped little to huge. I already have prepared myself before the BTC pump.

What happens to these people when they are wrong? I mean I could come down here, claim that bitcoin will be 30k very soon, can write a whole topic about it, show some charts too, and basically do 30k bidding for all the people who wants it up, but if the price crashes, what happens to me? I get no consequences at all, nobody can do anything about it, at the end of the day if we are actually not responsible for our claims and there is nothing anyone can do about it, why should we care about what we say?

We could lie about what is going to happen all day, in fact we could open up 5000 accounts on twitter, claim with 2500 them that bitcoin will go up, and with rest claim it will go down, next whichever is right divide 1250 and do the same until one of them has MANY times they were right. We need to make sure we do not care about people online who claim they know price movements, it is very dangerous.

Well, yeah I will think about this one but I don't think it to convert my Bitcoin into Altcoins, maybe if it is a stable coin like USDT, BUSD, and more because from that I will be more certain that the profit will be safe unlike in altcoins with having no certainty.
Thereby, placing it in some alts makes it even riskier. Yet, alts only follow on the move of Bitcoin thus if it plunged and so will be for most of the alts in the market. You gotta choose your take for this one carefully.

I am totally aware that this is not the general opinion at all, but to me technicals can be compared to horoscope, sorry for sharing this point of view here.

Anyone who gives financial advice based on TA should consider first how many times did his analysis fail. No one has a crystal ball to know about the future, and TA insight is almost always biased to me. I do know that there are a few ways to make money via trading, scientifically, mathematically, but I don't think it is done the same way most members who share technical analysis on this forum or social media do, which has more to do with pure luck and speculation.

For those learning technical analysts, consider opening your eyes to this possibility just in case. I will consider learning TA better just in case I am wrong too.

TA might say that it is against $20k right now, but after a week we haven't seen the price goes under $19k and it's been trading sideways. So I'm not sure if it is a good financial advise to liquidate a week ago as you don't have a entry point right now.

And if you decided to move too altcoins? not much as well, so it better if we just hold our BTC and then wait for another break out to $20k-$21.5k.

I would say that liquidating would be the most wrong thing anyone can do in bitcoin world, we all know that it is something that will continue to rise forever, so why lose all of your bitcoin just now as we are breaching into unchartered territories. This is the moment the real profit comes, right after we are moved beyond what we have seen as possibility so far, because rest of the prices above us are the prices we have never seen and have no idea what will happen.

Only the people with real courage will have the chance to make this work and they will see all the profits from it as well. I would say hold, hold as long as you can, hold like you are Spartan with your brothers beside you and your shield in front of you, hold now so that your children will be capable of living a luxurious life.

In addition to the exit points, you also need to remember about the entry points. Those traders who bought bitcoin at 6k are quite happy with the exit at any level above 10k (it seems to me) - this is a guaranteed profit and its fixation. Obviously, part of the investment can be left in assets in case of further growth, but this depends on the investor and his goals. Some are quite happy to do x2 and leave the market before the next crash and cheap prices.

Traders who choose to buy altcoins expect a higher return compared to buying bitcoin at the current market condition, still uncertain whether to rise or drop to a certain point like the last time it fell to $16,3k before recover to $19k again. We can expect bitcoin to surpass $20k this year or in January 2021.
In this case, I prefer to buy altcoins if bitcoin manages to break the ath as altcoins will follow the path of bitcoin days or weeks afterwards.

The risk is high even if you enter the alts as the entire market is on top and the uncertainty is for every other coin. I am not a huge expert in identifying the price movements well before it happens other than looking at the market and seeing how much volume and buy orders are active and that is how i evaluate my position. I wont be investing in any coin at this point because the market is too high for taking that kind of risk, i might take chances if there is a correction.

I guess it would depend on the trader himself because personally, I wouldn't let the value of my capital, whether in BTC or USDT, to depreciate just because of the possibility of earning more or not. As long as my capital remains the same, I would still prefer to trade and profit and not risk another coin continuously. If I were you, I would stick with BTC if you believe it would reach a new ATH this year or 2021.

This is a smart strategy as altcoins tend to rise faster than bitcoin in a global bull market. But as has happened many times, sometimes bitcoin grows and its dominance grows i.e. bitcoin sucks funds from other altcoins, so when bitcoin grows, they fall.

Ever since this topic was created, bitcoin has managed to stay above $19k level, no matter how many times we seen sellers try to push it down, it has kept that 19k level and that is something we can't ignore, it is certainly a great deal for all of us. So, I would say technicals could be against ATH as much as they want, but it is not working at all.

Plus it depends on where you look on it, some places may look like it is against it whereas some other technicals shows that we are doing just as we imagine we would do, plus there are some more that says as long as we keep it here for a long time, it will suddenly start to look like going above is more possible, even if it looks not possible right now. So at the end of the day, I still say we have 50%-50% chance of going up or down.

Yeah. In some rare case, Altcoins price follows bitcoin price pump afterwards just like what happened on 2017 bull run which Bitcoin and Altcoins rallies at the same time that result to a huge overall market cap. Investing in altcoin while the overall market condition is uncertain is very dangerous. I don't know if it's advisable for a regular trader to do that strategy buy I believe only few altcoins maintains or rally price while bitcoin is dominating the whole marketcap. You are very lucky if ever you invest on the right coin.

Also, we must remember that there is a difference between new altcoins and old ones. New altcoins can provide fantastic profits under certain conditions. As for the old ones, as far as I know, there is not a single altcoin that would update its high to bitcoin. A funny statistical fact showing that bitcoin beats everyone at a distance.

Yeah, I've been thinking to liquidate a fraction of my holdings right now. It seems the resistance was too strong which is why Bitcoin couldn't any go up longer above $19k. Currently, the price is hovering around $18k -$17k which I wasn't so sure if the run is over or not, the thing is not to be greedy and go get real here. However, if I am going to liquidate my Bitcoins I wouldn't do it in some random altcoins but rather in something more stable like USDT to preserve the value of it. By then if there's a forecast that it will surge again I can buy it back again.

This looks more and more realistic everyday but I am still not taking any chances because it is a zero loss game for me. If OP is right and bitcoin goes down, that means I am going to stay with some bitcoins and "losing money" right now and I will have to wait a lot and will make a profit later on. However, if I am right and it goes up I am going to profit. Both of those situations means I am going to make a profit, in one of them I make money right away, in the other I am just going to wait a bit longer.

When you are a long term investor, this type of ups and downs doesn't really change too much, it does change a bit but not too much, that is why I do not agree with the fact that people should liquidate right away, that just doesn't make any sense right now.

Two weeks later..and the technicals were a bit ...not technicall
And this prediction was coming from a guy who claimed to roll in hundred percent gains and also tried, fortunately unsuccessfully to manage other people's money around here or to charge for advices that would earn you, how much is zero?  ;D


TA works because you can see in TA whatever you want, you can put a billion indicators on a chart and eventually one will fit perfectly, nothing different from Professor Pigskin (https://simpsons.fandom.com/wiki/Professor_Pigskin), in your case, you've failed because you've chosen the wrong one.


It does? Well, today was the day not like the other three days before. I'm always enjoying reading when people claim that something is clearly going one way only to be proven wrong a few moments or days later.
If it were a bulletproof way to determine the price there would be no more trading being done as we all knew when to sell and when to buy but have no trading partners, in the end, all this is just a gamble, but you don't gamble on the price you gamble on the method you've chosen to guess the price. Same results.

When the sentiment market is good for bitcoin then there will be many investor who will look bitcoin as a main place not altcoin. The investor will only look bitcoin to gain profit they will ignore altcoin price movement. Same as your, I often to see many altcoin just dump when bitcoin price is increasing, but when bitcoin is facing a sideaway in a lower time frame than altcoin price movement going crazy. The price just move fastly and you'll be late if you buy at the desired price, so to me in uptrend market like now you will be safe if you trade bitcoin only.

Hard to take any negative view right now but the place to watch might be 4hr bars.    Here the blue line is the 4hr average price and all day we've kept above that, some rapid strong momentum lifting BTC.    So to be negative we need to be trading below this so the days sentiment is taken as profits by various traders.

https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/ALuIN.png   https://talkimg.com/images/2023/06/12/ALw7a.png

2nd chart is actual 4hr bars, all green in sequence so the two charts reflect each other.   The trend shown is daily gain since Nov start.

Which shows that for the most part those claims are just there to try to entice people to invest with them, unless hard evidence is shown about previous success then all of those claims should be assumed to be false, after all anyone can create a strategy that uses a lot of indicators and that on the surface it may seem profitable but when applied to the markets it does not work.


This is called overfitting and it is a serious problem with trading, you can always find a combination of indicators that will predict perfectly what the market did in the past, which is why actual successful strategies are supposed to consist of nothing more but 3 or 4 indicators at max always with the same settings, if a strategy can prove itself to be profitable in many different markets over many different market conditions then the strategy could be considered to be profitable, but obviously such a strategy will not win 100% of the time as most scammers claim.

The weekly and monthly momentum is absolutely nuts. Haven't seen strength like this since early 2017, obviously. This is an extremely strong bull trend that will sustain for months to come, regardless of what happens on the 4-hour or daily charts. Those lower time frames will just provide shakeouts within the larger rally.

Gawd, I hope nobody took your terrible advice.

BTC technicals? What a crock.

Just sell your fiat and shitcoins and keep your wealth in real money: real Bitcoin.

The 2nd time today that I've seen someone advise to move their btcs to alts. Way back a month ago that seems a good idea but it's proven to always keep the faith with bitcoin.
And just as today, it didn't have broken our expectation. This is why bitcoin is the safest if you want long term run and profit in the crypto market.

Perhaps s/he took their own advice and that's why they are so quiet on this thread ...

I never really understood why people would be ever against bitcoin and its increase. Always support buying bitcoin, I am not so much bullish on bitcoin from here on out neither but I would still suggest people to buy bitcoin because even if you do not make that kind of return, you are going to make some kind of return for sure. That is why I would say best method of profiting in crypto world would be buying bitcoin and maybe some other big name altcoins as well.

If you ever think that making a bigger profit path is going through selling crypto, remember that crypto could always increase and you could miss out on your future profits, even if you have some bitcoin and price falls, that doesn't mean you lost money, that just means you have a chance to buy more bitcoin for cheaper instead of losing. That is what I have been doing for years now and it works perfectly.

The problem is that when such advice appears, it's too late to follow it. After all, they appear after all the events (the growth of the market and the growth of altcoins, which are historically growing faster) have taken place. At such a time, it's time to get out of them, because at the first signs of a trend change, they will fall both against the dollar and against bitcoin.

There's no such thing about safe and you can say such thing just because bitcoin did really move forward as anticipated but if it goes to the opposite side then you would definitely say different thing.
When it comes to technical aspects then we can say that it did work when the price do correlates nor make in line with it but if not then you would say that there no effect or your analysis wasnt valid at all.
Lots had made out earlier and it turns out to be right but those are just the possibilities because the price could only go neither go and up.Breaking ATh wasnt even an expected event
yet majority been saying that it will be break out in year 2021 and the price had broke it in no time.

Losing money was stressful in times of need, but if you're mot giving up you're going to recover it back through patience and determination. Every opportunity given by market downturns, would accumulate your holdings everytime it create another bounces. Bullrun literally proves it all, and not is the of predictions went into reality.

Let's not go over OP too much, dude didn't know the right situation and he failed and he was wrong but we have seen a lot of people who are wrong as well, from both bulls and bears. I have seen a ton of people who expected to be over 100k+ by now, there was even that famous guy who said we would be a million dollars by now as well, they were all wrong too and we didn't dropped that much, so I can't really say that we are always right, I have also seen a lot of bears who said bitcoin "will die" and it never did neither, they were wrong too. This is just a guy who was wrong along with so many people, thousands were wrong at a time and this is just one more.

I think it is very difficult to predict what bitcoin will do, which is why I am not going to blame anyone who said bitcoin will be this or that and come out wrong, that is nature of bitcoin since it is hard to predict.

Fact is nobody on the planet can predict bitcoin and it's movement.

Why is it so hard to understand that we are in front of the best performing asset of all times? I know that for traders can be hard to understand this but after 11 years I guess that should be clear by now, shouldn't be?
Forget about TA and keep stacking satoshis!

Yeah, It's true in all assets but a group of whale with massive holdings can change the trend of BTC in a split second especially on the current condition of BTC which is fear is already high since its already break the long time ATH record. I'm sure that many traders that playing futures will setup a long position at this stage that's why I'm what will gonna happened on the next move of BTC.

I like your optimism, but the things that are obvious now have not been obvious in the past. It is very easy to reason so knowing the past. For example, are you now ready to take out a loan (or sell a house) and invest all your funds in bitcoin? It seems to be promising, but very few people will dare to do this, right?

Fact, people like facts and the unfortunate belief we as humans have any absolute perfect knowledge.  We dont, we have probable outcomes and thats all we are ever trying to predict to improve chances on a guess which way we go up or down on various time scales.

There is really not much excuse to be negative at present, only the simple take that after a great rise you have more basis to sell from and reason to take profits.   Ultimately and we can forget the idea that BTC usage is the true price movement.  I speculate on a price but I sell to use the profits for actual goods or services I wish to use and consume.   If BTC is not on my list to consume as a product then its not relevant, however owning the asset involves paying miner fees and so on but imo its still applicable we have 2 distinct dynamic in speculative and actual fundamental usage of BTC.

What you have to do for now is to continue in Hodl mode, the market is increasing despite the rebounds of the pandemic, you must continue in the game, at any moment the price may fall, perhaps a retracement that is normal, but a lot of money has entered the market, the technical analyzes that indicate some liquidation do not see it viable, not at least in this December.

I don't like your answer, maybe I didn't understand what you wanted to say. “If you don’t believe it or don’t get it, I don’t have the time to try to convince you, sorry.” Someone better than me said that a while ago. You do your own reasearch, there are no shortcuts.

While true most people refuse to accept this simple truth, that does not mean that even with that limitation money cannot be made as a trader, but predicting when the market is going to move in a certain direction and also to predict accurately the magnitude of the movement is something extremely unlikely.

And in the off chance that happens for some and then he shows you that he predicted the market it still means nothing as probably millions of predictions about the price of bitcoin are made everyday and some of them are bound to be right from time to time.