Bitcoin Forum

Hi,

I'm new to trading and trying to find the best way to trade when Bitcoin is testing it's ATH. I have noticed that it reached $19,300 last week before dropping below $17,000 then built back up to over $19,800 yesterday before dropping then again reaching $19,900 today before dropping again. Does that mean that the sell orders at those levels have now been spent and Bitcoin may find an easier path to break through? How many times could we expect this pattern to repeat before a break through?

Are we expecting similar patterns to repeat over the next week? If so, is it worth transferring a portion of BTC into USDT or similar each time BTC reaches around $19,800 and then transferring it back if or when it seems to have bottomed out?

Maybe it would be more sensible for me to stop trying to be clever and just HODL my way through but either way, I would be interested to hear your thoughts.

Bitcoin price is unpredictable no one could predict what will be the next price movement of Bitcoin.

What I want to suggest is to learn about technical analysis from the link below.
- https://github.com/learn-crypto-trading/learn-crypto-trading.github.io

And learn how to use limit order if you trade on Binance you can check this https://www.binance.com/en/support/articles/360033779452-Types-of-Order
Then apply what you learn from technical analysis.

Tools that you can use

Thanks, that is a very helpful post and your link looks like a very useful resource for learning the details about Technical Analysis which is something that I would like to understand, I will try to read through it and understand as much as possible. I have copied your post into my spreadsheet for learning about trading so that I can come back to it when I am learning. Cheers.

it looks like what the OP has told is indeed the reality that happened to bitcoin. and this is like changing the tradition that has been done by bitcoin with long-term investments, but that did not apply to the last month. what the OP says is the reality and if only one speculates to do short-term trades it is certain to get very attractive profits.

but no one will dare to speculate at a time like this because it requires attention such as observing continuously and it is not easy and of course there will be risks that can be wrongly anticipated.

For me the strategy that you should use depends on what skills that you have because we traders have not same skills and characteristics, I'm more a momentum trader where I usually buy at the breakout. If my strategy is suitable for you then you can try it first in virtual account for you to not take any kind of risks. The current ATH of the bitcoin is the last resistance and it is why it is tough to beat but it doesn't mean that the bitcoin will never beat it. As a momentum trader I have 3 strategies to use in order to trade the ATH, first is the aggressive momentum where you will buy before breakout but the risks are too high because you are just speculating if a breakout will happen next is during the breakout wherein you will buy if the price is now currently piercing in its current ATH because that area have huge sellers and the last one if after the breakout wherein there is confirmation and the risks are less than the 2 strategies that I mention.

Playing trading is actually tricky. Because you really need to learn to hone your sensitivity to market conditions. And also you must be able to master your emotions so you are not easily swayed by market conditions. So far, I think the key to success in cryptocurrencies is patience. You can buy Bitcoin at the current price. And can sell when you get a profit. Feels easy, but it's actually hard to implement. If you are buying for under $ 19k then it is best to wait until that $ 20k is reached.

Bitcoin becomes more volatile in the past days and we can see its history, it always go down every time it goes up because we are failing to break the resistance so doing your trades on this level is too risky. I'm just holding right now because I can't follow the trend of Bitcoin anymore on a daily basis and its more safe If I do trade long. If bitcoin was able to break the resistance, we can expect the ride to go up and you can have your trades ready, always have a back up plan.

Sometimes people like to panic first when market conditions start not to improve even though this is only a slight correction if we remain patient with the sensitivity that is applied, when the price is high many people tend to buy because they want more profits for an instant, but this still takes what process has been done. we buy with the challenges that we continue to face that must be overcome and the most important thing is not to be greedy if we have targeted a percentage of the profits then that's good, don't just wait for more, sometimes that's what makes if stuck.

Yes, the risk is large enough to make a short sale when the situation is difficult enough to predict.
I thought I would do a partial sale and hold a part. because the movement of bitcoin cannot be predicted accurately by anyone. until now bitcoin is looking for loopholes to increase its pump strength.
I am personally still waiting and alert.

There is nothing special trading Bitcoin as it approaches the $20k level other than watching for more buys. It's an uptrend and so you should avoid the impulse of selling until you're sure the trend has turned bearish. Just look out for buy trades, not sell.

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Normally, I will look at the third attempt of it happening and if on the third attempt it doesn't break the Resistance then I should consider it very hard to warrant a drop from that level. But if it breaks on the third attempt, that means it's a continued uptrend.

Yes, history has a way of repeating itself. This is the same reason traders study charts.

I do the same, I'm just monitoring it and if it does makes sense to sell then I sell. What plans do you have this time? we're at the peak and it is unknown if it will go ahead pushing to the top or we'll see some corrections again just like it actually did. I think we're seeing the 2nd correction this time after it has reached $19500+. It hasn't struggled to recover but it is having hard time to reach $20000. Speculators are only waiting for it to step on $20000 and probably a lot of selling orders will be filled.

From my total lack of experience my thinking is that the $20,000 barrier hasn't yet been hit which means there's a large amount of sell orders that have not yet been triggered. I think that these will act as protection for my bet if I choose to sell half of my Bitcoin the next time it reaches around $19,700 which is what I am planning to do.

Once that $20,000 barrier is hit a lot of sell orders will likely be activated creating a rejection that will bring the price back down well below the $19,700 mark and I can then buy more Bitcoin back at a lower price. If I am wrong and the price shoots up through the $20,000 then I buy back in ASAP, kick back and watch the dollars roll in.

Does this sound like a reasonable plan?

It is reasonable but I'm not expert with that. Taking profits then wait for a retracement and do a buy back. That's a common strategy that a lot of traders do. But sometimes there's no TA that fits bitcoin just like how it ended well on $19k lines.
What matters in that strategy is your firm thinking and decision. It might sound like you are in FOMO but if you've done that according to your plan then that shall reap you profits.

As long you do make money then you can do all things that you do want yet no one can tell about on what would happen on next try on breaking the ATH.We cant really tell
if those sell walls had already been spent or would just continously be having that wall because in psychological aspect then theres really some importance on breaking 20k.
Big players might really be holding it up on that level and trying to reject it but for us small traders then the best thing to do is to play with those pullbacks and
recoveries because on this one we would really able to make money and be sure that you do assure your profits and dont get too greedy and if your gut telling you
that you should hold and stop then its up to you.

Good trader can guess about coin price. Only can guess don't it 100% sure so this patter can not work every time. Have many source for learning about crypto-currency. First you try to learn then you can guess btc price up or down.

If bitcoin approaches to $20k, the best way to trade with your bitcoin is trade as many times as possible with the entry and exit price difference from $100 to $150 for each trade. People will go mad when bitcoin approaches $20k and they won't know what to do: long or short. They will change their minds in seconds and liquidations will be more than ever.

It is perfect market with good volatility for you to trade and get income.

I don't think it's good idea to jump in bitcoin trading as long as you are trading large volume mate. If you play in bulk then only you will earn some amount of money out of this trade.

The reason: Market is very steady for bitcoin since a week now and it has already built up that resistance where it could go up and down like crazy.
Just check any data site for the past week graph of bitcoin and you will understand how steady it is. To be honest, even on the log scale it is standing still.

Though it's very intimating to enter into market when the prices are going up still it's not worthy to enter because risk is at its peak as well.

In my own opinion about that, I don't think it's a good time to buy yet. You might wanna wait a little pullback by following the advice of the pro crypto traders with good or decent TAs. Unfortunately, nothing is guaranteed and their analysis are not really accurate because the cryptocurrency market is very unpredictable until today. The only thing that you need to do is learn about managing your time and money very well. In other words, invest and trade what you can afford to lose.

We can't really know if it will break the ATH in the next few days or go below $19k price. To be sure set a buy order so when it dumps you can still trade. It's very risky to enter the market now because many are excited to break the ATH so it depends on you if you are still going to trade.

I think before  and  of  this  month bitcoin price  reach $20k +
I'm 100%  sure  because  market is ready do it.

If you're trying to scalping, it's not the right time at the moment due to the price seems to increase and decline briefly within 24 hours which lasted for the last 6 days.
However, I prefer not to sell bitcoin currently because it still has a high chance to reach $30k - $40k in 2021, waiting for 1-2 months will worth the time compared to sell at the current price. When the time comes to break $20k, it will get back on the rally to gain $1k-$2k in a relatively short time, the first step is $22k obviously.

Bitcoin is currently hovering around $20k, which has been marked as a determinant of previous highs, so some caution should be exercised when trading in recent times. With the price of Bitcoin reaching $20k, many are speculating that it could go far beyond breaking previous heights. While this idea is positive, one must be careful when trading. Because from previous experience it is clear that the price of bitcoin can go down from this height to much lower. So at the present time, you have to adopt some of the prescribed strategies when trading. You must first determine a support resistance according to market movements and use stop-loss accordingly. But if the market is positive, wait, and wait until the market goes down. By trading in this way it may be possible to prevent large losses and maximize profits.

I'm shorting on Bitmex when it passes 19 500, but with small amounts and stop-loss @ 20 150—collecting profits @ 18910.

I've been lucky so far a few times, and now I'm only risking my initial profits. Because I'm expecting such swing for a little longer and then to see BTC over 20 500 for a long time.

For people who are new and do not know what to do when the price is this high, the logical step would be not to go all-in right now at this price which would most certainly hurt you and scare you away from any future trade. I have a friend who wanted to get involved with crypto in 2017 when it was at its peak, he got in literally at $19.6k and he sold it when it reached to $6.7k levels and he has never gotten back ever again, even though I have protested him getting out, and even encouraged him to get in a lot heavier there instead of getting out. Now he is not even involved and quit cold turkey.

You know what would have happened if he bought 2x more instead of getting out? He would have been a lot richer today than he was that day. So, I would say get in only a small portion today, a bit more next month, and a bit more later continue like that until your money runs out.

I think if you are a real newbie on trading you should try to learn the foundation of trading first, Hodling isn't a bad idea and more suitable for the one who is learning and at the same time has the potential to gain some profit. It's just better to hodl than to trade without proper knowledge about it and to be liquidated at the end. I myself am just trading a small portion of my bitcoin to the market because I'm not really sure if it the 19k barrier will be broken.

You are asking some very interesting questions but at the end no one has the answer to that, there is a huge sell wall at the 20k level, which is why we have been unable to go above that price but institutional investors are buying coins even right now which means that most likely they are buying bitcoin in order to exhaust that sell wall and allow the price to keep climbing upward.

Will they be successful in this? No one knows, after all they can afford such move because they bought a lot of coins at a cheap price so the average price at which they bought their coins is still very low, however there is the possibly a reduction on the price is on the cards during the next weeks as the excitement over the bull run begins to go down.

The first step towards successfully trading bitcoin market is to understand the market psychology. You first need to ask yourself where the market is going, when you are able to answer that, you'll learn how not to trade against the market. The fact that Bitcoin's price keeps dropping every time it gets closer is because a lot of traders have piled up sell orders at those levels hence creating a very strong resistance. To trading such market, you can choose to trade or the breakout or breakdown.

For breakouts, you just need to wait for Bitcoin's next "major" move, that would give you the confirmation you need to keep the trade going or keep holding your positions. To be on a safer side though, I suggest you place a stop loss order in case the price takes a sharp dive and after failing to breakout.

With bullrun we're advice to just hold through whatever storm the market is trying to create and not get pressured into wanting to join the masses in trying to outsmart the market especially when you don't have the necessary skills and education already acquire before now. You'll be better off holding your coins as the fastness of the market can leave you behind or put you in loss.

The current market situation will be very tempting, the price movement is seeing bitcoin lossing and gaining between $500 to $2000 almost daily. Don't think it's that easy to buy or sell at the right moment to bring about profits. If your emotions can't be put under control it won't be advisable to try trading instead just seat patiently and wait for your investment to yield profit.

I think the best trade is sell in a bull run to sell near $21K - $22K and buy with a 10%-30% profit

I understand that you are new to this but in this bullish situation, HOLDing is not advisable. You can do trading but not to buy Bitcoin and just HOLD because you are risking your money, and I'm afraid if the market dumps that makes you lose.

We have this experience before, many people bought some Bitcoin and altcoins last 2017 for they are speculating that the rising momentum will continue but seems it give them a surprise as it dumps hard and loses their money.

You can either do converting it into stable coins and  or to just continue holding. If you are unsure and not yet learned reading technical anysis then you better hold bitcoin and wait for your  target price where you can sell off your bitcoin. Trading btc as of now are a bit tricky as you have noticed, there are tons of pull backs. Many traders expecting it to be bullish but they have been liquidated as sideways were sudden appeared in the  market.

I can only suggest to buy low and sell high. That is the basic lesson to trade bitcoin and altcoin.
If you feel that you hard to do that basic lesson, then HOLD is your way to wait for bitcoin price approaching $20k, so you can sell your bitcoin at that price.
These situations will be difficult to trade because we never know what will happen to the bitcoin price. The price is up and down many times, and if we are making a wrong analysis, that can make us wait for a while before we can sell bitcoin.
I am not good at trading, so I can only suggest you like that way.

As far as I know, scalping traders are trading strategies that benefit from price changes throughout the day. Their profits are derived from the result of rising or falling price movements. Those are the moments scalping traders take advantage, so I don't agree with your opinion. Since futures trading / margin,  more scalping techniques are being used but up or down it can be an advantage.

At the end of the day there is a big chance that people might actually trade bitcoin no matter what the price is, obviously it could take longer than expected to get used to trading at these prices as much as they did back in $10k days, but it will continue to get more and more here as well.

I just do not feel like there is a reason why it should either go higher from here or lower from here, it could stay around these prices for a very long time, like over a month, without ever going 10% in any direction. Just stay between $18k and $20k levels for over a month or even maybe two. That means people will get used to trading at these prices and they would be capable of not being afraid of trading at these prices. That is going to be the difference in some time if you ask me.

There's always those who trade the market and they are experts maybe futures or options traders that has big amount of balances that isn't easily liquidated. Just for a day and we are back again at 17k area but I think around this area where we could get the consolidation.

A month of consolidation is healthy I suppose then go higher or maybe this was just a 2016 scenario and the anticipated ATH was 2021 of the last quarter. The best thing about Bitcoin is whenever there's a little corrections it could double that in a bull run, 10% down then 20% or 30% up.

When bitcoin reaches new ATH it's always prone to massive selling since people are waiting for that moment aswell. It's not like people sees new ATH reached and decide to hold even longer.

In my opniion if you truly just seeking for profit then there's no wrong in selling at the peak if you bought at lower price. Still gives you profit even if the price keeps going up.

On the resistance here you mentioned, we remember to always study the long hours with it or days, weeks and most important, the month and this long time is very useful for swingers. You have made good trading suggestion anyway.

Yeah, the resistance was too strong. Honestly, I already liquidate a small fraction of my holdings because I don't really know that to do right now, Bitcoin is just moving back and forth, which makes it difficult to read the market. Anyway, I have already been getting enough profit right since I buy at a cheap price way back then and I can actually liquidate now, however, I believe that the run was not over yet, perhaps by the end of this month we can make a breakthrough.

Mostly its so hard to predict bitcoin price without saying its impossible , because no matter what is your prediction you will still lucky if it goes right because bitcoin price is being manipulated by market makers


And for holding , as we all see many time every time bitcoin break an ATH all the market dump hardly and the liquidity jump to bitcoin so if you are holding bitcoin better not to buy any coin in this circumstances , wait until the price of bitcoin stabilizes then make a position in the market , mostly you will able to make at least a quick 5-10% ;)

good luck mate.

 

Quick 5-10% isn't the right mindset for a holder though. You either have a fixed future price, or a fixed timeframe -- I have both, and they haven't been adjusted much as they're both still far from current reality.

I should probably have a bottom too, but psychologically, I'm not sure I'm letting go at $3k either.

Resistance wasn't that strong, the psychology to go over $20k was too strong. We have broken over a lot more resistances and a lot harder resistances because the price wasn't that big. I remember there were days when $9.2k had record breaking resistance that required so much money that we never saw that much money injected into crypto that easily, but we broke over it thanks to both people spending too much money buying but also sellers removing their orders and making the wall a lot smaller to break over.

The same could have happened for $20k and could still happen, we do not have a big wall at all, it is a wall we can easily break over with no time. However we need to first convince people to realize we are not in a bad situation, when they see $20k many people assume they should take out their profits and that needs to stop if we want to go above.

It's need to have more buyers to break that. I check it before it dump they have almost 4k BTC set orders before 20k$ that's the reason why the price of Bitcoin went down . I even expect more price decrease not only 18k$ because of that wall blocked that price . Can we break that price ? Of course if there are more buyers will enter and tried to invest their money in Bitcoin.

I think BTC will test the wall of 20k couple of times before it breaks it. The amount of sell orders around that are big so it will take some time I think.

Best way to trade bitcoin now is by watching the market, don't get too carried away, focus on the market and don't be too greedy to sell after making small profit because nobody can fully predict bitcoin at this particular time.