Bitcoin Forum

As Bitcoin possibly gears up to try to hit $100k in the next year, and far higher prices seem an almost certainty in the future, I want to know when you think Bitcoin will hit $500k, $1 million and $2 million?

Bitcoin in 2020 is finally just starting to be viewed as a global reserve asset, with the first forward-seeing institutional investors starting to buy it up to the point in which there is barely any supply to go around. At the same time PayPal is about to open the flood gates to another huge wave of retail investors. Bitcoin is becoming engrained in the world of finance. The rise to $500k, $1 million, and $2 million seems inevitable in due time. So, what do you think: when moon?




I think we will see $500k hit for the first time in the second half of this decade.
$1 million will first be hit in the early 2030's.
$2 million will first be hit before 2040.

By that time (2040) I think it will be a mature asset and its growth will slow (as there is only so much money in the world). By this time it will be a normal asset to hold in bank accounts or bitcoin wallets or money apps of billions of people, it will be a better version of gold for store-of-value investors, there will be trillions in retirement accounts in Bitcoin around the world, it will be a normal asset to hold for hedge funds, it will be a treasury asset for much of the corporate world, central banks will hold a few million combined to compliment their Gold and Dollar holdings.

When do you think it'll hit these price targets for the first time?

If I'm not mistaken by 2038, we could have reach 99% of all bitcoin mine. So that alone will speak how the price will move after that. Because the rest of the 1% will be mine up to 2140.

So definitely, 6 - 7  digits around that time is not far fetch as bitcoin will be really scarce and everyone will be fighting to get at least a satoshi. Moon by 2038 and beyond or even much earlier.

I won't speculate that much even the last piece of BTC mined. Mining all the supply means the Circulating Supply increased too so there's a chance that price will drop too. What I really looking forward is the development of bitcoin blockchain. The scalability problem is the main issue of BTC right now and so far, no concrete solution on it. A lot of different blockchain already closed on achieving it so if others can do what BTC can't, it's really alarming what will gonna happened on BTC future.

As long as the demand to own bitcoin also grow faster than ever, i believe the reasonable price that time will be over $500k definitely.
But when there is no growth in demand then everything is just useless you know even all bitcoin available has been mined.
The advice here is , to never let your bitcoin wallet has a zero balance fill it as low as 0.5 bitcoin for your future plan or at least your future bet. Dont get rush , 20 years from now is short actually.

The supply of Bitcoin is pre determined, all the halving dates are known and barring changes in difficulty, anyone can predict what amount would have been mined at any exact time with close accuracy, with that, I doubt if supply could actually cause a significant drop in the price as it is already priced in, and we are immune to supply shocks. Also majority of Bitcoin has already been mined and only a few are left, which is probably not enough to cause an inflation and bring prices down.

There are currently several solutions being proposed and implemented to improve scalability, such as schnoor and Taproot. Also, Bitcoin is not in direct competition with other blockchains, it has intrinsic qualities which should always make it valuable, even if not as a currency.

Sometimes in the future probably. I could take a wild guess, but it's not really necessary to predict the future price. 1BTC would always be 1BTC, and at some point, valuing it against fiat might no longer be the best alternative and we would have other means of determining its value.

Since your Question has different choices of answers why not make this thread as POLL so can just choose one even there's no need to Post.

Anyway.

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almost 20 years from now, far long waiting .
this is exactly why we need to took care even our single satoshi because days will come that this very tiny Figure now will be a Bread for the table of whole family.

I am not expecting to see bitcoin price will be $500k / $1 million or even $2 million in the near future. I don't even think that bitcoin price can reach $300k in the next year. But if that can happen in the next year, I am sure that we will make a big profit in that time. But I could expect to see bitcoin price will be at $100k in the next year. But all of that price is possible to happen in the future, and I think I need to enjoy this moment and follow the bitcoin price journey. I am sure that there will be many speculations out there to predict how high the bitcoin price. But all of them don't know the right thing that bitcoin price will increase later.

Yes these prediction are crazy, especially when they are 2 decades apart. There are people who got reasonable targets like $25K or $30K in the next year or so. And then there are those that are expecting $500K this time next Christmas. Seems people are getting way too bullish again.

Look at what happened when we almost broke $20K, we came close but didn't break and went back down. Look like now we might get a retest of that $16700 area. Similar to what happened in Nov 2018 and Mar 2020, people were basically calling for triple digit bitcoin which didn't happen either. Seems you gotta do the opposite of what most people are expecting to happen.

If you look at the S2F model, $300k is their prediction, but we can't really tell at this point what direction we are going to take in the next 10 years. Remember that bitcoin works in cycle, boom and bust. So it really depends on what will be the lowest low, let's see in the next 3 halving.

And there there is this question of where should be the money coming from? currently the push of today's price is based on company's hedging their wealth to bitcoin like MicroStrategy. So in the next 10 years, we should finds ways of people, institutions, or even gold investors shifting to bitcoin to get to even $50k-$100k.

I hope this will be in my lifetime when the price of 1 Bitcoin will be worth $1 million.  Even half of this would be amazing for me.

Even now experts still predict a price of minimum of $100,000 for 1 Bitcoin would be incredible.

But for the price to be in 6-7 digits would be amazing for me and all else who holds this precious coin.

We don't know how the world revolves also what will be the economic state in future and we need to consider that before we can conclude or drop some prediction on what will happen to the price in the future. But since bitcoin still unpredictable maybe the best thing we should discuss on what will be the closest figure will come in future and what will be the scenario if all bitcoins will be successfully mined since we never know if the price will pump or dump after that.

The value the you expected is really hard to happen or not possible to happen in the future even you wait few decades or even hundreds of years it will not happen.

Hundred thousands dollars is maybe possible but it's  difficult to achieve also and for sure we face a lot challenges like dumping and many years or decades before we reach that price.

Im contented now to the value and hoping no more dumps before the end of this year happen and next year a good movement again will see to the bitcoin.

I don't really go that far when predicting things to happen.
Why? There are events that might change everything.
Just like now, suddenly there is a pandemic that affected a lot of people in the world.
Who would thought that will happen?

$30k next year is already an awesome number for me. Then maybe, $5k for every year.
That's if USD won't lose its value.  ;D

i still believe that $1 million is a far target to reach not only because it will be a massive rise compared to the current price but also because it is some form of round number and looks like taboo to some people so they will sell and prevent price from reaching it quickly.

the next round of rises on the other hand we can see $500k very easily. in fact i believe that we can see it before 2021 ends. then after it is reached because of its high value the round after that will be a lot easier and faster.

These prices would make bitcoin the biggest market cap in anything we have seen and doesn't really make sense at all. I would understand if it was 50 years from now, because by that time everything else will be expensive too and that means bitcoin could go up as well, however it can't happen anytime soon, nowhere near those levels could happen anytime soon. Hence, I think it is going to be decades before we see these prices.

I understand there are some people who think just because we moved from few dollars to $20k in just 10 years, we could do that again in 10 years as well, that type of % only happens during the early days, you need to be early bird to take advantage of these type of increases, you are not going to get it again just because it did it once upon a time.

Bitcoin will indeed reach these figures but when will it reach and how long it will stay at those figures are the question? Even though your predictions are realistic but Bitcoin doesn't follow any particular pattern and had that been the case, then we should have already achieved $100k in 2018 when the most unexpected dump took place. I think no one can predict when t will happen but it's going to happen for sure and I wish it happens in our lifetime.

Why do you see the ceiling at $100K for the current cycle?

I'm not convinced that prices are limited to the trend set from 2010-present. All trends eventually end. But instead of price falling below the long term logarithmic channel, I believe the trend could accelerate exponentially above it instead, during a mass adoption phase. I think valuations like $500K or $1M are possible in the next bubble cycle......2021, 2022. Not necessarily probable, but very possible.

It's typical in hype cycles for people to be skeptical, aim too low, sell too low. I think Bitcoin may end up surprising even the bulls.

$100k is what I'm seeing from everyone who's positive for next year. The s2f model shows that it's the ceiling that it can be reached by 2021. $300k is quite high and so is $100k but it's more favorable with the opinions of most predictions.

I'm wondering how much is the percentage of inflation would that be if bitcoin hits those high prices. Well, I think $500k around 2027-2030 and the rest would rely on global reaction and if most countries and institutions started to make bitcoin more scarce.

It seems unrealistic for bitcoin to hit those levels without a specific reason to drive the price. It is more likely to max out at 50k-100k for the next decade and that is still a great thing because it has come such a long way in it's first 10 years of existence. If there was a substantial amount of extra stimulus in an effort to recover from the damage caused by Covid, there is a chance that some of that money could flood into bitcoin.

What specific reason drove the price to $20K in 2017? There was none. That's just not how bubbles work.

It's all about supply and demand: rising prices cause hype and new demand and refusal to sell, which further causes higher prices in a self-reinforcing cycle. That's not the type of dynamic you can explain away with one piece of news or one specific reason.

When the price of Bitcoin rises to $500k, $1M, $2M depends on external factors, such as when it will be accepted as a form of payment by global companies such as Walmart or McDonald. I mean the adoption of Bitcoin by the Mainstream. I think it can happen in 5 to 10 years.

I really hope to be alive when Bitcoin can hit the price of $ 1 million :P, because I believe I will be rich if the $ 1 million target is
achieved by Bitcoin ;D. But if we look at the current price of Bitcoin which is still having trouble rising above the price of $ 20,000.
It looks like the $ 100,000  target is far from reaching, hopefully Bitcoin by the end of this year can touch a minimum price of $ 22,000.
So the demand for Bitcoin can continue to rise, and in 2021 we can reach the target price of $ 100,000. For a target price of $ 1 million
or $ 2 million I still don't have an idea when it will be achieved, because this is a very high target price to be achieved.

Not a really fan with those numbers or those kind of speculations where we do talk about 7 digits and beyond. Even though bitcoin supply would really be scarce into those
future years but numbers will always depend on the level of demand on that time.If we do try to do math speaking of the value on where bitcoin could potentially reached
then always consider that it will surpass out the entire cap of most fiats which would really be ending up on the question "would government allow that?"
even though i do see the positive side of things that we would really be reaching new heights but not really into those 7 digit levels.

I’m wondering now if its really possible to happen and what would be our situation if we reach that price level, I’m thinking for a much expensive staff at that time. I’m happy that bitcoin pumps and dumps, we’re slowly making money because of this and that kind of price prediction is far from reality as of posting, no one can tell exactly.

Perhaps, Bitcoin price can reach $300k in the next two years, or it could happen if the adoption can grow drastically, making the price jump to the highest price. But for now and the next year, $100k is a fair price for bitcoin, but I don't know what will happen if there is much good news that can bring positive trends for bitcoin.

I do not expect to see deep inflation if bitcoin hits those high prices, but bitcoin prices can get dump so hard, making people shock to see it. But it is interesting to predict how high the bitcoin price will increase later because we will see much speculations from people without knowing what will happen to the price.

I'm not too worried about those figures as I prefer to enjoy the process.

I will enjoy quite a lot when we break 20k and keep breaking ATHs like 30k 40k so on.

Getting to $2 million in 20 years it's OK but maybe the year before the ATH is $1,9 million so the purchasing power won't be that different.

We have also to bear in mind that fiat currencies will keep depreciating and at fast pace it seems.

$2 million in 20 years maybe will be similar to $ 0.5 million today.

This will happen before 2038, sometime around 2030 during the sixth halving period. Namely, at the end of the fifth halving period, the total amount of mined BTC will amount to 98.43750011% (2028), and sometime in the middle of 2032 this amount will exceed 99% (99.21875011%)

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

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I think it's pretty frivolous to talk about the price expressed in millions while even $20 000 is an insurmountable obstacle. It’s not that I don’t want that to happen, but for the vast majority of investors, Bitcoin is still a very risky and quite exotic investment. For such crazy prices we need trillions of dollars, and now the total market cap is worth just over $300 billion ($0.33 trillion).

Insurmountable? LOL, have some patience, man! In early 2017 I'm sure $1,200 appeared insurmountable as well. The market corrected 30-40% off the previous ATH not once, but twice. Many bulls gave up hope during those corrections. And then Bitcoin bubbled. ;)

I wish more people felt like you. Then I'd be feeling more bullish. Unfortunately most people seem extremely bullish, anticipating $20K to be broken. Bitfinex short levels are low and swap funding rates are positive........there are no shorts to squeeze.

If we can get a real correction off the $19Ks (none of this 10-15% shit) and shake out some of these greedy bulls and turn them into bears, breaking $20K becomes a lot more likely.

As it stands, I'm beginning to think this sideways near the top is a distribution phase before the market slow bleeds into a crash. I'd be more confident in that assessment if swap funding rates were particularly high (they are hanging around 0.01% on Binance and Bitmex) but I'm still leaning that way anyway.

With all of the institutions adopting bitcoin news, we see that there's stability that's being maintained at the price point of $17k-$18k. And that's a very fair price knowing that we've got that much good news in the market.

2 years from now for $300k, we don't really know what can happen in that period and there could be a lot of things that can surprise. But with the next halving on 2024 and its next years, I think those years would determine if we'll go higher the 6 digits price for bitcoin.

It would have been much better if I had written "insurmountable obstacle at this point", because at the right time when the real bull run starts, $20k won't be a problem. I am a very patient man, but also a realist who does not consider it likely that 1 BTC will be worth millions in the near future.


Most have invested in BTC for profit, and most will sell for the right price - and I bet most would agree to sell everything they have if someone offered them a price between $50k - $100k. As time goes on, this game will become more and more only for big players - and more and more strong hands will become weak hands without the possibility to return to the game.
 

Given that you have experience with TA, you can certainly estimate much better what can happen in the market. However, I am a bit more optimistic, and I think that given all the circumstances, there will not be any drastic corrections. The solution to the pandemic is now only a matter of time (months), the new US administration cannot be worse than the last (or maybe it can?), so some things may be normalized in terms of trade with China. Also, institutional money is constantly flowing into the BTC market, and halving has not yet shown its true effects.

Consequently, the conditions for a perfect storm (bull run) are becoming more likely in the next year or maybe a year later.

It's as if something was forgotten that in early December we touched ATH a little more, but that didn't happen and we went through a correction again a few days later, don't be too excited to see $ 100k if ATH in 2017 alone hasn't been touched yet.
As for the next 20 years, bitcoin has run out in the mine, I don't think the price will reach $ 1 million because in the future Bitcoin may be more stable than it is today.

We can't see Bitcoin pass through the $20,000 and yet you are asking things like this.
When Bitcoin go ($500k / $1 million / $2 million)??

Before asking this, you might want to ask for a lower price like $50,000 or $30,000 first. I will just answer your question still. $500k per Bitcoin can happen 5-10 years from now. Not quite sure since that is a very huge price increase for a short span of time. With 1M and 2M per Bitcoin, most probably it will take a decade or 2 or maybe 3 before it will happen.

May be in 2040 ;) I would love to see countries show green signal for crypto currency and make it legalize especially for BTC. Unless then it's impossible in my opinion, country like China should come forward to make this coin a precious asset just imagine where the price will go if China legalize BTC that could be a remarkable decision.

If the government favor this technology for payment system the price will be over the moon and we can plan our children's future in other planets ;D

These type of people hurt bitcoin in the sense that they are making it sound like bitcoin will be something so large that everyone should get in right away and when people see these they mock bitcoin people.

$500K "could be" possible in the Winklevoss twins sense, they think bitcoin is gold 2.0 and it will reach the gold market cap one day, considering it can't do it today, probably in about 10 years at least, that would mean in order for bitcoin to reach gold market cap, we would need bitcoin to be $500k per bitcoin, and even in that sense that is probably the max cap we could ever see in 10 years time, not anytime soon.

So, I would say it is wise to not get pumped about these kinds of numbers but be happy that we are near 20k right now, and hope that we go over it, those are enough.

Honestly, I'm not trying to predict. Years of trading has taught me that markets are quite unpredictable. I think more so in terms of possibilities. Anyone who rules out the possibility of a painful correction to the $13,000s or even the $11,000s is naive. It's something we need to be prepared for.

I like the way David (from the Godmode analysis thread) approaches this. Corrections are always inevitable, but there are two types of corrections: time corrections and price corrections. Time corrections are sideways without deep declines. Price corrections are deep and crash-like. It's impossible to know before the fact which one is coming.


Don't get me wrong. I'm very bullish on BTC in the next year. I'm probably more bullish than almost anyone around here, given how few can even conceive of $500K or $1M valuations. I'm just talking about short term and mid term (weeks and months) corrections to the ongoing bull trend.

Adoption from the institutions can bring new hope for bitcoin to become global, and if that happens, we will see the chance for bitcoin price to increase not just for $100k. Perhaps, the price will be more than $300k in the future, although we are not sure if that will happen in the next 2 years, but it will go to that price.

Perhaps, before the next halving 2024, the bitcoin price will be more than $300k, and the price will fly to the higher sky, which we can't imagine. I agree that bitcoin can go higher to the 6 digits price in the future, but we don't know if we can still follow the bitcoin journey.

I am yet to dream about impossible targets right now, if you are confident about the price of BTCitcoin reaching those levels then you can hold the coins for a very long time. First i need to take things as it appears and with the way in which the market is performing now we might see the price rallying up to $30k to $40k depending on how much money is pumped into the market.

Only few whales doing a long term hold since I believe most of them are taken the advantage to gain from the currency activity of the market, I see so many traders which are doing this and they are earning good since they can generate huge by using their big capital in their trades. Maybe  there are few holders but its so risky to believe on something hard to reach but if you really believe that just put some small percent of  your balance  to use for trading's and set the bigger ones on  the one you like like holding it for more years.

I totally agree, when it comes to Bitcoin anything is possible. I’m completely open to every possible option and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if a 40-50% correction happens, although it doesn’t seem too likely to me at the moment because of all the things I wrote in the previous post.


I understand you, all of us here, with some exceptions, are very optimistic that sooner or later the price of 1 BTC will reach six-digit numbers. The only thing that is disputable is the time frame in which this will happen, and I personally think that it is realistic to expect in the next 2 years. Of course, this progress will depend mostly on whether this investment trend of large companies will continue, because by all indications, the current price has been achieved thanks to them.

I don't have any hint what's going to happen in the next ten years, all I know is the technology is evolving and new technology is being created we do not know if Bitcoin is still the king or there will be a takeover but I hope there will be no change in leadership, it's good that what we early are still part of it after some decades.

Do not really worry about what it is doing right now, do not worry about what it will be neither, just focus on what you can do to get yourself richer in this market.

I understand that some people want the whole market to get better and looking for ways how it could be done, but an individual can only care for himself before he could care about the whole market and the great thing about bitcoin is that if you care about yourself, you are caring about the market as well.

Think of it this way, if you want to make money with bitcoin, what can you do? You can actually buy bitcoin and hold right? When everybody does that, what happens? Bitcoin price goes up and market gets better and everyone earns money. So we could all just be selfish and still make everyone money.

$500k, $1million, $2million, that is too much mate.
In 20, years, 40 years, I'm really old that time and I'm not sure if I'm still alive.

How is that possible? When it comes to real talk,  that is just like a dream where chances are not clear and I was not expecting such a rally even we say that there is a huge Bitcoin demand in the market. Love to think about it but the question is, have someone make an investment during that time? Or, people are getting back to fiat?

I've been expecting a correction back to $11k range ever since it went to high $15,000s. But then it only briefly dipped to $14.3k and surged to $19k. Consequently I entirely missed the $15k-$19k run because I had gone fully back into cash in my trading account in the $15000's, waiting for the correction back to $11k!

At $19k I figured it'd dip at least back to $13000s and the whole process of correction and recovery would take a couple months. But at this point I think I was wrong. Looks like this is a time correction, as price has been ranging mostly in $18k's and $19k's with a couple brief dips to $16k's and $17k's. A fall below $16k doesn't look likely anymore. It's been almost a month now since it first hit $18k and price is still holding. It may still dip down to $11k-$13k, but before I was 100% sure it would, now I think it is much more likely to never see those prices again and will instead surge over $20k soon and go a good bit higher so the next more substantial correction would probably only go down to $16k+ area and bounce up off that pretty quickly.

The more time price doesn't correct lower, the more time institutions have to buy up billions of dollars of bitcoin, making it harder and harder to get a deep correction - sucking up all the supply so that the price gets less and less likely to have any chance of correcting lower. I think too much supply has been sucked up by institutional investors these past ~26 days since BTC hit $18k so that a correction back to the last major support ($11k) is no longer even needed and support is actually $16k now. The market just looks like it leaped over previous support levels and won't even bother going back down to check in on them one last time.

On top of the normal hundreds of millions of dollars Grayscale buys up every week, MicroStrategy is likely going to be buying up ~$640 million BTC in the next couple weeks, since they completed their stock sale a few days ago. Just too much supply is being taken out of sellers hands and being put in long term holds by institutional players for us to see a solid correction from current price levels.

thecodebear, interesting thinking - the law of supply and demand is more than visible here, and so much money going in only one direction with fewer and fewer new BTCs on the market does not allow old whales to manipulate the market. Here it just shows what it means to have a limited amount of something that is in high demand, the price goes up or stays relatively stable regardless of all the whales and their bots.

We can say that Grayscale and Microstrategy are old news, but it is especially interesting to me that another big player with an investment of $100 million has joined the game. Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co is definitely interesting because in total they are worth as much as an incredible $235 billion, and if this $100 million is just testing, and that's exactly what JPMorgan suggests - then the $600 billion mentioned in the article could very easily mean that the $1 trillion market cap looks more and more realistic in near future.

Honest if you personally ask me about it and I will answer "Don't Know".

However, for that everyone hopes that Bitcoin will have a change from previous years, I mean in 2017, I can only hope that all of this can be achieved 1 million and so on.
We have seen the price of Bitcoin in 2017 and now a lot of people change their lives from an economic point of view, if they save some Bitcoin back then, predictions continue to emerge in various circles, for now no one can be sure about Bitcoin 2025.2030 and so on, I hope Bitcoin will have a good value in 2021.

This all high prices like 500k/1 million $ just looks good and might even get some in dreams where bitcoin reaches those levels etc, but personally do not think it might reach those levels in coming years. Even crossing 50k itself will be a big thing for 2021 or in coming time and 100k itself will be like best thing to happen. Also, not to forget if it happens to falls then how long it may take to recover needs to be also looked.

I do not mind discussing any forecast, but what is the point of discussing what we will be in 2040? Technologies are developing at such a speed that we cannot even be sure that the appearance of a person of the future will be similar to the appearance of a modern person. It is all the more difficult and pointless to discuss the price of bitcoin at such a time.

Yea for sure I bet the $100 million Mass Mutual put in is just testing the waters. What they allocated to BTC so far is just 0.04237% of their fund. No company is gonna go straight into BTC with their full desired amount right away. Just like MicroStrategy started with a $250 million buy and is about to make its 4th purchase, which will bring them to a total of just over $1.1 Billion in bought bitcoin.

I'm confident we will be hearing about Mass Mutual loading up at least several hundred million more in BTC next year. Even a billion dollars would still be less than half a percent of their overall fund so that'd still be a very conservative amount of money to put into Bitcoin. And yes I'm sure ever since news of the Mass Mutual buy came out, other insurance companies and pension funds in that apparently $60 trillion market are looking into dipping their toes into Bitcoin. I bet we'll hear of at least a few billion dollars, and maybe even tens of billions, from funds in those two sectors come into Bitcoin next year alone, and far more in the years to come - as you say, only 1% would be $600 billion, so it wouldn't surprise me if by the end of this decade over $1 trillion of bitcoin is bought by those two sectors alone. Makes you realize just how much money there is floating out in the world so that even if just 1-2% of several large sectors like this were brought into Bitcoin it would easily send bitcoin price up to around the $1 million mark.

It is still too far to predict those price and we couldn'tbe so sure if Bitcoin could really hit that high.
we are still having a hard time reaching or breaking $20K so I wouldn't be so excited about those kind of prediction.
But I agree that Bitcoin could go high but I don't know how high it would fly in the future maybe your prediction could also come true.

Yes you are right. We can still only predict what the price of Bitcoin will be in the future, but in reality we do not know when it will be. Since the target is very large, it will take time to reach that stage.

Bitcoin has not yet crossed the last ath although currently Bitcoin is close to the last ath we can expect something good here. If Bitcoin goes to a new ath then the crypto community might see something huge.

Don't know when that will be achieved but at least with bitcoin it can continue to be useful for a long time, I think that's enough because it will also continue to make the price go up. If more adoption will make a more stable price, maybe $500 can be reached in the next bull run, but if the volatility is very high then to reach that first target I think it's still difficult because market behavior is not always positive.

Possible. Remember though, this is just one narrative. We don't know exactly what's happening behind the scenes. Plenty of institutions may be accumulating, but that doesn't mean they are determined to prop prices up.

Sometimes price hangs for weeks until it feels like it can't possibly fall. And then it does. That's what maximum pain is all about: making everyone believe one direction is inevitable, before the market goes in the other. This traps lots of speculators and sets mid term trends into motion.

It's impossible to know whether this is an accumulation or distribution phase until the trading range is broken. Until then, we're all just guessing.


What if, in the coming weeks, Grayscale's inflows dry up? Microstrategy is already out of cash and buying BTC on leverage, so demand from them is obviously not going to last long.

it seems unrealistic at this time, imagine people said bitcoin will reach $20k back in 2010 when it just launched, did anyone say that was unrealistic? Probably yes.
Nonetheless, no one can say for sure that bitcoin will ever or never reach that point, there is a reason and potential to achieve that price such as more adoption, supply and demand. If fiat currency continues to be eroded by inflation so that its value is depreciated, it is not surprising that the price of commodities such as gold has continued to increase for thousands of years, in contrast to bitcoin, which the price increases rapidly due to various reasons.

To the first part, absolutely. Could certainly still drop, just feels to me like it won't at this point, after previously I had been absolutely expecting it to.

To the second part, likelihood of Grayscale inflows drying up seems very small. If anything inflows have been continually increasing all year and will likely keep increasing as Wall St investor types are finally starting to feel comfortable with buying Bitcoin and we are just at the beginning of this trend. Also I'm not sure what this is about Microstrategy buying on leverage, were some of their previous buys on leverage? They just did a stock sale so the upcoming buy is all new money they have now and won't be on leverage. I mean obviously I expect this will be the last BTC buy they do. But a $635 million buy will certainly help keep the market high - Coinbase does their buys for them, and at $19k that'd be ~33,000 BTC. For comparison, right now the 24 hour volume of BTC on Coinbase is only about 8700 BTC. The broader point is that in the near term Grayscale will continue soaking up supply and Microstrategy is about to take a bunch of supply off the market, and in general you have institutional investors buying up enough that I doubt there is enough supply floating in the market to allow a 30+% drop from these prices.

What they actually did was issue debt notes, which cost interest to service, and which will be convertible to cash or Class A shares.

They borrowed cash to go long on leverage. This is exactly what margin traders do.


Sure, all I'm saying is we don't know how much supply there is to absorb in this range. It may eventually outweigh the demand. It's possible that once Microstrategy and institutional buyers with similar appetite have finished buying, that excess supply still exists in this sub-$20K range. In fact, that is exactly what whales selling in this range are betting on.

Who is right? Microstrategy or the early Bitcoin adopters currently dumping on them? Stay tuned to find out. ;)

IMO we will not see such numbers in the next ten year at least.

Maybe after another couple of halving, perhaps only in our dreams. Its too far away from now to have realistic speculation.

Oh interesting I didn't realize that.

I'm not worried for the company's risk though haha, they're already up like $300 million on their previous purchases. But good to know!

Yeah like I said elsewhere, I think Microstrategy will do just fine, simply based on their average buy price and where I think the BTCUSD market is headed in 2021.

But it's their sense of exuberance and urgency to buy BTC as quickly as possible (even if they don't have any cash to buy with) that is beginning to feel very greedy. Meanwhile, the Fear & Greed index has been in "extreme greed" for a month straight. Longs are edging up on Bitfinex again and swap funding rates are positive. And most people are of the attitude that breaking above $20K is more or less inevitable.

Microstrategy's greed just makes me reflect on how greedy the whole market feels right now. I wonder if that greed is going to be answered with a severe shakeout that punishes top buyers.

the first target should not be $ 500k, this is the target for the next 10 years,
currently bitcoin is trying to survive above $ 20k, and if it works then there is no more resistance for Bitcoin,
and of course it is very easy to pump much higher.

Well, it might be already a tradition in this industry wherein many people are making conclusions which are far from the reality in the first place. The market price of cryptos, not only Bitcoin, has a tendency to increase because price is determined by the law of supply and demand but it is not exactly the same with stock market wherein there's global acceptance which could be a factor that could limit the price of digital currencies being an investment. To how we would look in this market, prices are not consistent as well as with the increase and times of decrease. If the price is continuously and consistently increasing, 6-digit market price is ofcourse possible or even more than that, but to that's not how this market goes, based on my observation eversince I engaged my self into this. These assumptions are just biases of people who depend their fate into investments just because they have earned from it. Little do they know that luck is always two-sided.

I really can't imagine if the price of Bitcoin reaches $ 1 million or $ 2 million,
it's a little ridiculous to imagine that now, but this is part of the crypto world, yeah a miracle,
maybe a miracle might come and bring Bitcoin to a price of $ 1 million  ;D

You're talking an impossible thing, it's good to dream but let's make it in a simple way and not like hallucinations. Miracle do happen sometimes, just be on realistic sides. Because if $1m per btc happens, demand will also go down and bubble might occur unexpectedly. Let's just have an optimized projections, $30- $50k per btc is quite achievable for more years to go and not going beyond what has been expected.

We dont need miracle but full adoption to reach new heights but talking about a million a coin then this is something which is really hard to believe on.

Imagine on how far it would go and we do even have a hard time on reaching or breaking 20k. How much more in 1 million price? I cant even imagine
on the ups and downs that would really be faced on along the way.

Even reaching 100k price would already be a challenge and we would need global adoption into another level.